Plump-Encirclement — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$365

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

92.4%

Resolved

3,984

Trades

12,565

lifetime

Volume

$42.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$68

1 position

First seen

2026-01-21

last 10-30 07:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 143 days

Categories

Other

97% 58% +$268

Sports

2% 44% -$2

Politics

1% 80% +$101

Crypto

0% 67% +$3

Pop-Culture

0% 18% -$8

Tech

0% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

76 active days in 12wk • peak 254 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	No		+71	$66	96¢	$68	+$2	09-18 20:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will to lam be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party	74	$5.4K	4,631	5,892	-1,261	Yes	+$166	01-23 07:26
will china record a gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics 113	20	$853	388	486	-98	Yes	+$1	02-18 11:42
will t lm be the next president of vietnam	45	$627	794	735	+59	Yes	+$60	03-06 17:15
highest temperature in shanghai on april 20 2026 22corhigher	10	$506	214	304	-90	No	+$2	04-20 07:22
highest temperature in shanghai on april 20 2026 21c	27	$426	224	225	-1	No	+$5	04-20 07:23
highest temperature in paris on april 16 2026 21c	30	$387	294	209	+85	No	+$4	04-16 20:45
highest temperature in shanghai on april 20 2026 20c	34	$202	244	212	+32	No	-$37	04-20 07:17
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C or below on October 14?	21	$158	80	80	+0	No	+$0	10-14 13:38
will phan vn giang be the next president of vietnam	19	$149	1,640	115	+1,525	No	+$1	04-07 02:21
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on October 18?	32	$148	120	120	+0	Yes	-$58	10-19 01:05
highest temperature in shanghai on april 20 2026 19c	32	$119	115	112	+4	Yes	-$34	04-20 06:26
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20?	38	$113	81	81	+0	Yes	-$1	10-22 13:36
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on October 24?	19	$109	55	55	+0	No	+$0	10-24 15:49
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C or below on October 10?	17	$109	55	55	+0	No	+$0	10-10 01:37
will trump shake hands with volodymyr zelenskyy at the world economic forum	22	$106	1,060	1,000	+60	Yes	+$50	01-22 15:25
highest temperature in shanghai on april 18 2026 21c	14	$97	55	55	+0	Yes	+$12	04-18 09:05
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on October 19?	16	$89	45	45	+0	No	+$0	10-19 16:36
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C or below on October 10?	12	$88	45	45	+0	No	+$0	10-09 23:37
will lng cng be the next president of vietnam	301	$87	18,927	13,961	+4,966	No	+$25	03-22 18:48
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on October 13?	15	$85	43	43	+0	No	+$0	10-13 08:02
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on October 26?	12	$84	42	42	+0	No	+$0	10-26 21:36
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C or higher on October 12?	12	$79	40	40	+0	No	+$0	10-12 13:18
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C or below on October 12?	14	$79	40	40	+0	No	+$0	10-12 03:35
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on October 24?	14	$78	40	40	+0	No	+$0	10-24 17:23
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	19	$75	76	5	+71	open	—	09-18 20:50
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C or higher on October 6?	14	$73	37	37	+0	No	+$0	10-06 14:06
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 94°F or higher on October 2?	10	$70	35	35	+0	No	+$0	10-02 17:32
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on October 7?	10	$69	35	35	+0	No	+$0	10-07 09:01
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on October 18?	13	$69	35	35	+0	No	+$0	10-18 10:49
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on October 2?	13	$69	35	35	+0	No	+$0	10-02 02:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 09:11:55	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 30?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0xbb7f37…
10-30 09:09:21	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 30?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x158530…
10-30 09:03:40	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on October 30?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x8ea1b2…
10-30 09:02:58	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C or higher on October 30?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x40191f…
10-30 08:56:18	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on October 30?	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xd3d123…
10-30 08:53:45	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on October 30?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xb326b2…
10-30 08:51:48	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on October 30?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xa20bb0…
10-30 08:43:45	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 30?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xdf447b…
10-30 08:43:15	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on October 30?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xc3b0d8…
10-30 08:37:22	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on October 30?	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x91fd28…
10-30 08:37:21	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on October 30?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x2beb8b…
10-30 08:36:49	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on October 30?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x8fc028…
10-30 08:32:43	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on October 30?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x32b145…
10-30 08:16:21	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on October 30?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x7690b5…
10-30 08:15:13	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on October 30?	No	BUY	8	93¢	$7	0xc573b9…
10-30 08:11:18	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C or higher on October 30?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x6a0b5f…
10-30 08:00:52	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on October 30?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xe57e9a…
10-30 07:53:51	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on October 30?	No	BUY	8	93¢	$7	0xe39694…
10-30 07:37:34	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on October 30?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xbd39e4…
10-30 07:28:16	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on October 30?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x57debf…
10-30 07:18:42	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 30?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x21d109…
10-30 07:07:30	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or higher on October 30?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xb3ba6b…
10-30 07:06:46	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on October 30?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xf370cc…
10-30 07:04:39	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on October 30?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x013c8d…
10-30 07:02:58	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C or higher on October 30?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x971d0b…
10-30 06:43:00	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on October 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa9605a…
10-30 06:40:04	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or higher on October 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc1c5f4…
10-30 06:12:42	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or higher on October 30?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x2dae97…
10-30 06:03:55	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 30?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xd9d789…
10-30 05:50:13	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on October 30?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xb851e3…
10-30 05:44:16	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or higher on October 30?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xea50a3…
10-30 05:44:16	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or higher on October 30?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x91be0b…
10-30 05:43:28	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on October 30?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x362af8…
10-30 05:35:15	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on October 30?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x8c9e99…
10-30 05:34:46	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on October 30?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xcf24b0…
10-30 05:32:33	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 30?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x787fe4…
10-30 05:08:10	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 30?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xccc84a…
10-30 04:41:37	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on October 30?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xb8bc88…
10-30 04:10:37	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on October 30?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x583e84…
10-30 04:03:18	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on October 30?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xb720bb…
10-30 03:49:57	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on October 30?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x96e48a…
10-30 03:40:46	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on October 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x81e5da…
10-30 03:30:07	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 30?	No	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0xd42c85…
10-30 03:30:06	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 30?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$4	0x59940d…
10-30 03:12:01	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on October 30?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x273d8a…
10-30 03:00:40	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on October 30?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x862f0d…
10-30 02:54:33	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 30?	No	BUY	8	95¢	$8	0x2cabde…
10-30 02:36:19	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on October 30?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x69b4fc…
10-30 02:26:51	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on October 30?	No	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0xb85047…
10-30 02:18:28	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on October 30?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xbfe98c…
10-30 02:11:22	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 30?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0xbf7b62…
10-30 01:54:49	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x4791c3…
10-30 01:54:48	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on October 30?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x9eb0e0…
10-30 01:50:07	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 30?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x0ad71b…
10-30 01:48:49	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 30?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x5d222e…
10-30 01:23:22	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on October 30?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xe544ef…
10-30 01:12:34	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on October 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x74dbc8…
10-30 00:32:09	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 30?	No	SELL	8	92¢	$7	0x265078…
10-30 00:26:51	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 30?	No	BUY	8	91¢	$7	0xa4e342…
10-30 00:23:49	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on October 30?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x22cd35…
10-30 00:16:16	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on October 30?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xa93165…
10-29 23:59:16	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on October 29?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xbb4657…
10-29 23:56:27	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on October 30?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x996700…
10-29 23:30:55	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on October 29?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x91617c…
10-29 23:27:39	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on October 30?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x046e4b…
10-29 23:22:22	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on October 30?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xe2e4da…
10-29 23:22:07	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on October 30?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xe6baf5…
10-29 23:20:13	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on October 30?	No	SELL	6	97¢	$6	0xb06d37…
10-29 23:10:21	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on October 30?	No	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0xc1c939…
10-29 23:08:12	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on October 30?	No	SELL	24	98¢	$24	0x4f9325…
10-29 22:59:42	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on October 30?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x15f1bb…
10-29 22:57:55	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on October 30?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x2f6299…
10-29 22:55:19	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on October 30?	No	BUY	8	94¢	$8	0x124a2a…
10-29 22:55:03	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on October 30?	No	BUY	8	94¢	$8	0x7ec735…
10-29 22:50:09	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on October 29?	No	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x90264e…
10-29 22:48:21	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on October 30?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x94afa0…
10-29 22:48:21	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on October 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x5dda8e…
10-29 22:48:21	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on October 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x3fbd91…
10-29 22:42:18	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on October 30?	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xdfc6b8…
10-29 22:22:55	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on October 30?	No	BUY	8	93¢	$7	0x1b4b68…
10-29 22:20:51	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on October 30?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x1fdb4f…
10-29 22:20:49	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on October 30?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x3fc391…
10-29 22:12:37	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 27°C on October 30?	No	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0xdbdc6c…
10-29 22:12:22	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on October 29?	No	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0xb80811…
10-29 22:12:22	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on October 29?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x53540d…
10-29 22:12:22	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on October 29?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x2147f9…
10-29 22:01:03	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on October 29?	No	BUY	8	92¢	$7	0xcba6fb…
10-29 22:00:01	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on October 29?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xba695c…
10-29 21:51:04	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on October 30?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x364147…
10-29 21:45:21	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on October 30?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x129b89…
10-29 21:45:03	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on October 30?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x5cd733…
10-29 21:35:21	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 27°C on October 30?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x928185…
10-29 21:35:21	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 27°C on October 30?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x5d2d58…
10-29 21:34:37	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on October 30?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x51c4e1…
10-29 21:26:52	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on October 30?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xf681c2…
10-29 21:21:51	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 27°C on October 30?	No	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0xa98e73…
10-29 21:18:18	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on October 30?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x8846f1…
10-29 21:00:39	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 27°C on October 30?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x48060e…
10-29 19:39:42	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on October 29?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xc90811…
10-29 17:50:29	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on October 29?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xac0500…