Tight-Glue — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$249

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

37.3%

Resolved

593

Trades

1,381

lifetime

Volume

$2.03K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-05-24

last 08-15 05:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 44 days

Categories

Other

51% 11% -$27

Crypto

48% 51% -$232

Politics

1% 100% +$12

Sports

0% 0% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	No		+5	$3	26¢	$1	-$2	06-01 19:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 3?	43	$180	1,259	584	+675	No	-$50	06-03 08:28
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 3?	162	$138	547	190	+357	No	-$15	06-03 04:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 09:55 UTC	46	$92	180	0	+180	Up	-$92	06-22 09:59
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 1?	32	$52	1,103	589	+514	No	-$6	06-01 08:33
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 3?	23	$48	1,784	600	+1,184	No	-$28	06-03 02:12
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 3?	37	$24	1,922	42	+1,880	No	-$23	06-02 14:47
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 10?	4	$21	1,540	0	+1,540	No	-$21	06-10 03:48
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 1?	8	$19	20	20	+0	No	+$0	06-01 06:06
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 3?	3	$18	40	0	+40	Yes	+$22	06-03 00:23
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-16 16:40 UTC	6	$17	1,712	0	+1,712	Down	-$17	06-16 16:45
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 08:40 UTC	1	$17	146	0	+146	Up	-$17	07-13 08:44
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 9?	2	$17	21	0	+21	No	+$4	06-09 09:58
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 2?	24	$16	364	186	+178	No	-$1	06-02 01:48
BNB Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-09 07:45 UTC	3	$15	1,501	0	+1,501	Up	-$15	06-09 08:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-15 05:40 UTC	2	$15	10	10	+0	Up	+$5	08-15 05:44
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 5?	4	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	06-05 12:54
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 3?	12	$13	469	0	+469	No	-$13	06-03 08:33
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	6	$12	25	5	+20	No	+$12	05-27 17:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-08 13:20 UTC	2	$11	6	6	+0	Down	+$1	08-08 13:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-08 13:25 UTC	2	$11	6	6	+0	Up	+$1	08-08 13:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-08 13:40 UTC	2	$11	6	6	+0	Up	+$1	08-08 13:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 07:40 UTC	2	$10	5	5	+0	Up	+$0	08-14 07:43
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5?	2	$10	22	0	+22	No	-$5	06-05 08:42
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 5?	2	$10	10	0	+10	Yes	+$0	06-05 08:52
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 1?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	06-01 19:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 16:30 UTC	2	$10	6	6	+0	Down	$0	06-21 16:32
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 9?	2	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	06-08 19:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 18:50 UTC	2	$10	6	6	+0	Up	$0	06-21 18:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 18:45 UTC	3	$10	6	6	+0	Down	$0	06-21 18:48
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 5?	2	$9	11	0	+11	No	+$2	06-05 10:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-15 05:52:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-15 05:50 UTC	Down	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0xb580aa…
08-15 05:44:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x7fa402…
08-15 05:42:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-15 05:40 UTC	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xbdbec3…
08-14 07:43:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 07:40 UTC	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x066580…
08-14 07:41:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 07:40 UTC	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xebf7f9…
08-08 13:52:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-08 13:50 UTC	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xbc15b5…
08-08 13:48:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-08 13:45 UTC	Down	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xf5be18…
08-08 13:44:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-08 13:40 UTC	Up	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0x7095fe…
08-08 13:42:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-08 13:40 UTC	Up	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x30c43b…
08-08 13:29:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-08 13:25 UTC	Up	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0xaea9ab…
08-08 13:27:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-08 13:25 UTC	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x32bd70…
08-08 13:24:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-08 13:20 UTC	Down	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0x28b26a…
08-08 13:23:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-08 13:20 UTC	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x939e10…
08-08 13:19:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-08 13:15 UTC	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x7d1089…
08-08 13:17:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-08 13:15 UTC	Up	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x29a286…
08-04 10:07:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 10:05 UTC	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x718d16…
08-04 09:14:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 09:10 UTC	Down	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0xa55f1d…
08-04 09:07:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 09:05 UTC	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xf52f58…
08-04 09:04:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x5e10ec…
08-04 08:59:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 08:55 UTC	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x3502e6…
08-04 04:48:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 04:45 UTC	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xce6fe5…
08-01 03:34:54	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 03:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0xa667d2…
08-01 02:49:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 02:45 UTC	Up	BUY	15	16¢	$2	0xf2ed75…
08-01 02:34:35	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 02:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xa0d550…
08-01 01:59:47	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 01:55 UTC	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x3d1530…
08-01 01:24:51	Solana Up or Down - July 31, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xd1da1f…
08-01 00:34:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 00:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x806407…
08-01 00:34:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 00:30 UTC	Down	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0x91fb75…
07-31 22:54:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 22:50 UTC	Down	BUY	8	33¢	$3	0xaef551…
07-31 21:44:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 21:40 UTC	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xb82857…
07-31 21:19:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 21:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x6bad8c…
07-31 21:09:41	HYPE Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 21:05 UTC	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x60dbd3…
07-31 17:19:38	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 17:15 UTC	Down	BUY	7	22¢	$2	0x1f0b41…
07-31 16:44:53	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 16:40 UTC	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x42ad31…
07-31 16:04:41	HYPE Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 16:00 UTC	Down	BUY	6	39¢	$2	0x11a4aa…
07-31 15:14:57	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 15:10 UTC	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x3c3de8…
07-31 13:34:47	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 13:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x7ce381…
07-31 12:29:56	Hyperliquid Up or Down - July 31, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	41¢	$2	0xcfede4…
07-31 11:39:47	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 11:35 UTC	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x743e94…
07-31 10:39:38	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 10:35 UTC	Down	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x4a29ef…
07-31 08:44:35	HYPE Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 08:40 UTC	Up	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0xd3e3ab…
07-30 01:30:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-30 01:25 UTC	Up	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x9f1dc7…
07-26 12:04:40	HYPE Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 12:00 UTC	Up	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x08fa15…
07-26 00:32:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-26 00:30 UTC	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x684a2a…
07-16 06:26:28	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on July 16?	Yes	BUY	150	1¢	$2	0xc75123…
07-16 06:26:25	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 16?	Yes	BUY	150	1¢	$2	0xc91f91…
07-16 06:23:02	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 16?	Yes	BUY	150	1¢	$2	0xafa214…
07-16 06:22:35	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 16?	Yes	BUY	150	1¢	$2	0x7831ff…
07-16 06:21:52	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 16?	Yes	BUY	150	1¢	$1	0xc245d0…
07-15 11:01:17	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on July 15?	Yes	BUY	250	2¢	$4	0xc3eb27…
07-15 10:55:46	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 15?	Yes	BUY	23	2¢	$0	0xaf96c1…
07-15 10:53:11	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on July 15?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x3862c2…
07-15 10:47:14	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on July 15?	Yes	BUY	19	2¢	$0	0x1b169d…
07-15 10:46:58	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on July 15?	Yes	BUY	230	2¢	$5	0x82dda6…
07-15 10:46:11	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 15?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0xfc7270…
07-15 10:46:10	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 15?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x610ea6…
07-15 10:10:31	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 15?	Yes	BUY	8	2¢	$0	0xc9218c…
07-15 10:10:01	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 15?	Yes	BUY	4	2¢	$0	0xccbbcf…
07-15 10:06:04	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 15?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x67a0f0…
07-15 10:04:58	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 15?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x4c07e6…
07-15 10:01:50	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or higher on July 15?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0xd0c01f…
07-15 10:01:50	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or higher on July 15?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xce2312…
07-15 10:01:01	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or higher on July 15?	Yes	BUY	125	2¢	$2	0x881a44…
07-15 10:00:59	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 15?	Yes	BUY	183	2¢	$3	0x32aead…
07-15 09:58:44	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on July 15?	Yes	BUY	126	2¢	$2	0xfbdf04…
07-15 09:58:44	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or higher on July 15?	Yes	BUY	18	2¢	$0	0x3fd377…
07-15 09:58:43	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on July 15?	Yes	BUY	97	2¢	$2	0xfe689f…
07-15 09:58:43	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on July 15?	Yes	BUY	27	2¢	$1	0xf70704…
07-15 07:49:55	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 15?	No	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x1eec1d…
07-15 07:35:49	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 15?	No	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0xa73410…
07-15 07:21:13	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 15?	No	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x6f9d2c…
07-15 07:17:46	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 15?	No	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x759728…
07-15 07:15:01	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 15?	No	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x4e7b43…
07-14 02:34:44	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-14 02:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xa60791…
07-14 02:04:44	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-14 02:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xfcbbb9…
07-14 01:44:47	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-14 01:40 UTC	Up	BUY	6	74¢	$4	0x3027a5…
07-14 01:24:44	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-14 01:20 UTC	Down	BUY	30	6¢	$2	0x8749f8…
07-14 01:14:49	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-14 01:10 UTC	Up	BUY	7	24¢	$2	0x98d88b…
07-14 01:14:44	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-14 01:10 UTC	Up	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0x1746f5…
07-14 00:59:46	HYPE Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-14 00:55 UTC	Up	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x529f2f…
07-14 00:49:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-14 00:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x272347…
07-13 23:24:49	HYPE Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 23:20 UTC	Up	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x1fc0d5…
07-13 21:44:44	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 21:40 UTC	Down	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x769f77…
07-13 21:24:47	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 21:20 UTC	Up	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x4ed8bf…
07-13 20:29:43	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 20:25 UTC	Up	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xf68da4…
07-13 20:29:43	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 20:25 UTC	Up	BUY	9	16¢	$1	0xb2e040…
07-13 20:24:43	HYPE Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 20:20 UTC	Up	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x4c5aa4…
07-13 20:04:44	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 20:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x07d997…
07-13 19:19:53	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 19:15 UTC	Down	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0xf5e8b0…
07-13 19:09:44	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 19:05 UTC	Up	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x9f99f9…
07-13 19:04:44	HYPE Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 19:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x7792bb…
07-13 18:54:44	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 18:50 UTC	Up	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xc4c526…
07-13 18:09:43	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 18:05 UTC	Up	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x550708…
07-13 16:49:52	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 16:45 UTC	Up	BUY	21	20¢	$4	0x2a195d…
07-13 16:49:47	HYPE Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 16:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xde653c…
07-13 16:39:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 16:35 UTC	Down	BUY	6	37¢	$2	0x621288…
07-13 16:29:43	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 16:25 UTC	Down	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xe16bfa…
07-13 15:39:43	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 15:35 UTC	Down	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x03344b…
07-13 15:24:44	HYPE Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 15:20 UTC	Down	BUY	6	64¢	$4	0x12e712…
07-13 15:24:43	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 15:20 UTC	Up	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0xae6286…