French-Defense — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$331

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

77.2%

Resolved

Trades

241

lifetime

Volume

$6.41K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$27

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-07

last 10-16 14:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 31 days

Categories

Crypto

66% 49% +$265

Other

31% 95% +$65

Politics

3% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	3	$440	300	300	+0	Down	+$154	05-25 19:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	11	$284	200	200	+0	Up	+$96	05-24 06:14
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	1	$213	213	0	+213	No	+$0	05-16 08:14
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April?	1	$213	213	0	+213	No	+$0	04-26 23:01
open above 1pt5 on april 17 2026	1	$213	213	0	+213	Yes	+$0	04-13 15:54
highest temperature in hong kong on april 10 2026 20corbelow	1	$212	213	0	+213	No	+$0	04-08 04:05
elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 80 99	1	$212	212	0	+212	No	+$0	03-19 12:56
will solana reach 160 march 9 15	1	$212	212	0	+212	No	+$0	03-11 05:03
solana above 100 on march 3	1	$211	212	0	+212	No	+$0	03-03 15:02
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-03 14:45 UTC	1	$209	211	0	+211	Down	+$2	03-03 14:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	2	$209	200	200	+0	Up	+$45	05-24 08:54
bitcoin up or down february 9 4am et	2	$192	96	96	+0	Down	+$0	02-09 09:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	10	$181	300	300	+0	Up	-$109	05-25 20:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	17	$167	300	300	+0	Down	-$103	05-25 18:49
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	1	$161	161	0	+161	No	+$0	09-12 07:48
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	1	$161	161	0	+161	No	+$0	08-07 00:16
Ethereum Up or Down on October 16?	1	$160	168	0	+168	Down	-$160	10-16 14:25
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 05:30 UTC	3	$141	100	100	+0	Down	+$51	02-03 05:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 12:15 UTC	7	$134	100	100	+0	Up	+$64	02-03 12:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-07 07:15 UTC	3	$129	132	0	+132	Up	+$3	01-07 07:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	8	$120	200	0	+200	Up	-$120	05-25 20:14
open above 0 on february 27 2026	1	$109	110	0	+110	Yes	+$1	02-12 14:34
will bitcoin reach 78k june 22 28 2026	1	$104	105	0	+105	No	+$0	06-27 03:51
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 19:15 UTC	2	$104	200	0	+200	Down	+$96	08-06 19:19
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 16:45 UTC	7	$103	175	80	+95	Down	-$31	02-03 16:56
Will France win on 2026-07-09?	1	$102	165	0	+165	Yes	+$63	07-07 06:08
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 07:15 UTC	23	$102	400	100	+300	Down	-$2	02-03 07:29
will tsla reach 600 in february	1	$99	99	0	+99	No	+$0	02-12 14:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 19:30 UTC	1	$98	200	0	+200	Up	-$98	08-06 19:30
tsla close above 400 on february 9 2026	1	$96	96	0	+96	Yes	+$0	02-09 20:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-16 14:25:12	Ethereum Up or Down on October 16?	Up	BUY	168	95¢	$160	0xe30da6…
09-12 07:48:43	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	161	100¢	$161	0xe7e6e4…
08-07 00:16:06	Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	No	BUY	161	100¢	$161	0x1ca2f9…
08-06 19:30:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 19:30 UTC	Down	BUY	200	49¢	$98	0xacb142…
08-06 19:19:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 19:15 UTC	Down	BUY	45	52¢	$23	0x2409a0…
08-06 19:19:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 19:15 UTC	Down	BUY	155	52¢	$81	0x19ed7a…
07-07 06:08:58	Will France win on 2026-07-09?	Yes	BUY	165	62¢	$102	0xb1f9d0…
06-27 03:51:19	will bitcoin reach 78k june 22 28 2026	No	BUY	105	100¢	$104	0x38d347…
05-25 20:59:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	195	25¢	$49	0xc32f64…
05-25 20:54:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	21	35¢	$7	0xf491b6…
05-25 20:54:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xc788e0…
05-25 20:54:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	15	35¢	$5	0x84efe0…
05-25 20:54:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x6c16da…
05-25 20:19:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	SELL	300	12¢	$36	0x1143a8…
05-25 20:18:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	95	45¢	$43	0x8fd4ac…
05-25 20:18:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x152a90…
05-25 20:17:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0xce0ef3…
05-25 20:17:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xbce92e…
05-25 20:17:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0x6cfdda…
05-25 20:17:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x5c8aca…
05-25 20:17:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	24	50¢	$12	0x540925…
05-25 20:17:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x0dd3d6…
05-25 20:17:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	63	50¢	$32	0xbcfb85…
05-25 20:14:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xf36fb7…
05-25 20:14:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	21	60¢	$13	0xea4336…
05-25 20:14:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	1	60¢	$1	0xde684a…
05-25 20:14:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xc2fbd3…
05-25 20:14:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$2	0x9c5dac…
05-25 20:14:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	46	60¢	$28	0x843e08…
05-25 20:14:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	53	60¢	$32	0x80f270…
05-25 20:14:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	64	60¢	$38	0x64fd89…
05-25 19:55:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	SELL	300	99¢	$297	0x7952f6…
05-25 19:53:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	100	45¢	$45	0x5740ec…
05-25 19:52:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	200	49¢	$98	0xfdf3ca…
05-25 18:49:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	SELL	300	11¢	$32	0x60fbc9…
05-25 18:48:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	6	45¢	$3	0x849c93…
05-25 18:48:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x626c6f…
05-25 18:48:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	9	45¢	$4	0x365534…
05-25 18:48:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	114	45¢	$51	0x301982…
05-25 18:48:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	9	45¢	$4	0xf492cd…
05-25 18:48:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xb63c25…
05-25 18:48:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	9	45¢	$4	0x9ce059…
05-25 18:48:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x84f87b…
05-25 18:48:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x643704…
05-25 18:48:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	23	45¢	$10	0xfb471e…
05-25 18:48:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xf5227a…
05-25 18:48:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	27	45¢	$12	0xe37fed…
05-25 18:48:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	37	45¢	$17	0xd7e99b…
05-25 18:48:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0xd32353…
05-25 18:48:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xbeb0b8…
05-25 18:48:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x14db0c…
05-25 18:44:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x7d47aa…
05-25 18:44:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	3	45¢	$1	0xf5cebd…
05-25 18:44:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	185	45¢	$83	0xad2d6e…
05-25 18:44:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x13b273…
05-24 08:54:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	SELL	200	63¢	$127	0x5fc46d…
05-24 08:54:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	200	41¢	$82	0xacd162…
05-24 06:14:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	SELL	29	95¢	$28	0x5fb2ee…
05-24 06:14:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	SELL	160	95¢	$152	0x3b5c1e…
05-24 06:14:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	SELL	11	95¢	$10	0x0478cd…
05-24 06:13:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	9	47¢	$4	0xf611fd…
05-24 06:13:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xdb379e…
05-24 06:13:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	68	47¢	$32	0xdac14a…
05-24 06:13:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xb698ad…
05-24 06:13:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	82	47¢	$38	0x8b1d26…
05-24 06:13:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	13	47¢	$6	0x87b97d…
05-24 06:13:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x436831…
05-24 06:13:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	47¢	$3	0x3a877f…
05-16 08:14:34	Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	213	100¢	$213	0xbb3505…
04-26 23:01:40	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April?	No	BUY	213	100¢	$213	0xa0cffe…
04-13 15:54:31	open above 1pt5 on april 17 2026	Yes	BUY	213	100¢	$213	0x3f40ec…
04-08 04:05:05	highest temperature in hong kong on april 10 2026 20corbelow	No	BUY	213	100¢	$212	0x2d6bd1…
03-27 17:06:21	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 60 79	No	BUY	44	100¢	$43	0x187f15…
03-27 17:05:15	will open close between 9 and 10 week march 27 2026	No	BUY	84	100¢	$84	0x71073e…
03-27 17:04:35	will nflx close between 130 and 140 week march 27 2026	No	BUY	85	100¢	$85	0xb82cf9…
03-19 12:56:17	elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 80 99	No	BUY	212	100¢	$212	0xb35494…
03-11 05:03:21	will solana reach 160 march 9 15	No	BUY	212	100¢	$212	0x21b3d1…
03-03 15:02:25	solana above 100 on march 3	No	BUY	212	100¢	$211	0x0aec0f…
03-03 14:49:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-03 14:45 UTC	Down	BUY	211	99¢	$209	0xfa6704…
02-12 14:57:29	will tsla reach 600 in february	No	BUY	99	100¢	$99	0xaee8f7…
02-12 14:34:07	open above 0 on february 27 2026	Yes	BUY	110	99¢	$109	0x3a344c…
02-10 23:14:47	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 23:00 UTC	Up	BUY	310	7¢	$22	0x8c0b3c…
02-10 23:14:45	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 23:00 UTC	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x99ab5b…
02-10 23:14:45	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 23:00 UTC	Up	BUY	43	7¢	$3	0x5cfd97…
02-10 23:14:45	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 23:00 UTC	Up	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x413631…
02-10 23:14:45	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 23:00 UTC	Up	BUY	118	7¢	$8	0x34486a…
02-10 23:14:45	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 23:00 UTC	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x2dbb3f…
02-10 23:14:45	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 23:00 UTC	Up	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x18a13c…
02-10 23:14:45	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 23:00 UTC	Up	BUY	27	7¢	$2	0x05637a…
02-10 23:14:43	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 23:00 UTC	Up	BUY	345	7¢	$24	0x4ad7da…
02-09 20:42:17	tsla close above 400 on february 9 2026	Yes	BUY	96	100¢	$96	0x334680…
02-09 09:58:37	bitcoin up or down february 9 4am et	Down	SELL	96	100¢	$96	0x09c049…
02-09 09:57:03	bitcoin up or down february 9 4am et	Down	BUY	96	99¢	$96	0xbdfea6…
02-03 16:56:52	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 16:45 UTC	Up	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0xb6a905…
02-03 16:56:52	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 16:45 UTC	Up	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xae5122…
02-03 16:56:52	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 16:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x7e7300…
02-03 16:56:52	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 16:45 UTC	Up	BUY	14	40¢	$5	0x5eab25…
02-03 16:56:52	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 16:45 UTC	Up	BUY	58	40¢	$23	0x010df4…
02-03 16:53:18	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 16:45 UTC	Up	SELL	80	45¢	$36	0x2ce0a8…
02-03 16:51:22	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 16:45 UTC	Up	BUY	80	36¢	$29	0x2abfb9…