Happy-Question — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$986

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

68.7%

Resolved

Trades

278

lifetime

Volume

$18.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$67

Open exposure

$245

1 position

First seen

2026-02-02

last 10-28 23:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 42 days

Categories

Other

75% 48% -$1,062

Politics

24% 55% +$37

Sports

1% 100% +$22

Crypto

1% 67% +$17

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes		+363	$243	68¢	$245	+$2	10-28 23:53

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial Election?	7	$1.3K	1,053	1,053	+0	Yes	+$218	06-04 03:11
will wuthering heights opening weekend box office be between 47m and 53m	2	$1.1K	642	642	+0	No	-$39	02-11 16:03
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m?	17	$894	476	476	+0	Yes	+$30	05-31 16:37
will bhumjaithai party bjt win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	2	$727	559	559	+0	Yes	+$324	02-08 13:11
will wuthering heights opening weekend box office be less than 47m	2	$587	578	578	+0	Yes	-$475	02-13 16:56
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 30?	6	$563	330	330	+0	Yes	+$94	05-30 19:52
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m?	7	$547	316	316	+0	Yes	+$59	06-07 20:21
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$547	293	293	+0	Yes	+$37	10-26 00:09
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on May 27?	5	$529	312	312	+0	Yes	+$93	05-27 17:15
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 26?	3	$486	262	262	+0	Yes	+$34	05-26 18:56
Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 22m?	2	$460	403	403	+0	No	+$48	09-23 03:43
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	2	$421	223	223	+0	Yes	+$24	05-20 09:39
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 26?	2	$421	222	222	+0	Yes	+$21	05-26 22:07
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	2	$401	256	256	+0	Yes	+$109	10-25 22:34
will peoples party pple win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	2	$400	306	306	+0	No	+$3	02-08 11:24
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 3?	2	$393	281	281	+0	Yes	+$166	06-03 17:40
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?	2	$369	338	338	+0	Yes	-$68	05-22 03:38
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 23?	2	$356	218	218	+0	Yes	+$78	05-23 17:37
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 6?	13	$327	199	199	+0	Yes	+$67	06-06 17:41
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on September 27?	2	$320	166	166	+0	Yes	+$10	09-27 16:07
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 5?	4	$293	173	173	+0	Yes	+$49	06-05 17:18
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 25?	3	$262	174	174	+0	Yes	+$62	05-25 14:52
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 7?	5	$255	201	201	+0	Yes	-$22	06-07 19:03
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	1	$243	363	0	+363	open	—	10-28 23:53
Will there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9?	2	$243	179	179	+0	No	+$47	08-06 13:39
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21?	2	$241	149	149	+0	Yes	+$55	06-21 19:53
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?	2	$236	375	375	+0	No	-$49	05-22 10:37
Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	4	$233	457	457	+0	No	-$232	10-02 20:04
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 22?	2	$231	142	142	+0	Yes	+$53	05-22 16:37
Will Anton Danko win the 2026 Poprad mayoral election?	3	$226	263	0	+263	No	-$226	10-22 19:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 23:53:08	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	363	67¢	$243	0xe4d982…
10-28 08:57:23	Will Mark Jessop win the next Huon Valley mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	89	56¢	$50	0x7904d5…
10-26 00:09:56	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	293	100¢	$292	0xc0d2aa…
10-25 23:13:48	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	293	87¢	$255	0xa0e977…
10-25 22:34:57	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	256	100¢	$255	0xb05608…
10-25 10:07:44	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	256	57¢	$146	0x4a839a…
10-22 19:36:09	Will Anton Danko win the 2026 Poprad mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	176	87¢	$153	0x5872a5…
10-22 19:24:18	Will Anton Danko win the 2026 Poprad mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	8	85¢	$7	0xca4147…
10-22 19:21:26	Will Anton Danko win the 2026 Poprad mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	79	84¢	$66	0x225325…
10-06 14:51:59	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on October 7?	Yes	BUY	87	71¢	$61	0x3e6ba4…
10-02 20:28:00	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C on October 3?	Yes	BUY	82	52¢	$43	0x91f161…
10-02 20:04:38	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	Yes	SELL	457	0¢	$0	0xda0495…
10-02 20:03:14	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 19m?	No	SELL	64	0¢	$0	0x5826f0…
10-02 19:55:54	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 19m?	No	BUY	64	16¢	$10	0xbfd3f7…
10-02 19:54:42	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	Yes	BUY	44	18¢	$8	0xfed5a2…
09-30 13:44:30	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	Yes	BUY	184	34¢	$62	0x23f1db…
09-27 16:11:42	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	Yes	BUY	229	71¢	$163	0xb1cbc7…
09-27 16:07:39	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on September 27?	Yes	SELL	166	100¢	$165	0x36ffed…
09-27 14:05:11	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on September 27?	Yes	BUY	166	94¢	$155	0xc9a47d…
09-27 13:59:47	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on September 27?	Yes	SELL	109	19¢	$20	0x163289…
09-27 12:08:02	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on September 27?	Yes	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0xf4199a…
09-27 12:07:29	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on September 27?	Yes	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x6e3180…
09-27 12:07:20	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on September 27?	Yes	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x043d6d…
09-27 12:06:03	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on September 27?	Yes	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xc8b5e6…
09-27 11:31:15	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on September 27?	Yes	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x1a99e4…
09-27 10:18:38	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on September 27?	Yes	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x6c5477…
09-27 09:47:23	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on September 27?	Yes	BUY	48	62¢	$30	0x82599b…
09-26 22:14:44	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on September 26?	Yes	SELL	42	100¢	$42	0xe0146e…
09-26 13:01:26	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on September 26?	Yes	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x5079bb…
09-26 12:56:45	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on September 26?	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x1bda87…
09-26 12:56:29	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on September 26?	Yes	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x21b657…
09-26 12:55:56	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on September 26?	Yes	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x4f0027…
09-26 12:07:20	Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 13m?	No	SELL	164	7¢	$12	0x8cf039…
09-25 17:28:05	Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 13m?	No	BUY	51	36¢	$18	0xfd60e2…
09-25 16:25:48	Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 13m?	No	BUY	15	53¢	$8	0x02dd80…
09-25 16:24:42	Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 13m?	No	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x82d6e3…
09-25 16:22:54	Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 13m?	No	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x65bbc3…
09-25 16:20:17	Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 13m?	No	BUY	40	54¢	$22	0x388ade…
09-25 16:18:15	Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 13m?	No	BUY	30	52¢	$16	0xa94731…
09-23 03:43:34	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 22m?	Yes	SELL	403	63¢	$254	0x8721ae…
09-21 15:21:31	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 22m?	Yes	BUY	403	51¢	$206	0x65f980…
08-20 17:23:49	mlb stl cin 2026 08 20	St. Louis Cardinals	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x491ebf…
08-20 17:22:48	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 20?	Yes	SELL	61	3¢	$2	0x42a723…
08-20 16:11:45	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 20?	Yes	BUY	61	86¢	$52	0x50238f…
08-20 16:07:33	Will RSC Anderlecht win on 2026-08-20?	Yes	SELL	53	99¢	$52	0x0dc885…
08-20 15:28:54	Will RSC Anderlecht win on 2026-08-20?	Yes	BUY	53	91¢	$48	0x6a7137…
08-17 20:55:16	lal dep elc 2026 08 17 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x390d88…
08-17 20:54:54	lal dep elc 2026 08 17 total 1pt5	Over	SELL	34	100¢	$34	0x83c2fb…
08-17 19:14:55	lal dep elc 2026 08 17 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	34	57¢	$20	0x3cd918…
08-17 18:27:31	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on August 17?	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x479940…
08-17 16:03:12	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on August 17?	Yes	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x3900e3…
08-17 16:01:58	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 17?	Yes	SELL	18	96¢	$17	0xf247a0…
08-17 15:52:16	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 68m and 70m?	Yes	SELL	41	0¢	$0	0xc2f17b…
08-17 15:50:39	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 17?	Yes	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xa31d4a…
08-16 18:32:27	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 68m and 70m?	Yes	BUY	332	12¢	$40	0x805b21…
08-06 19:46:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 19:45 UTC	Up	BUY	44	44¢	$19	0x3b4589…
08-06 19:41:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-06 19:40 UTC	Up	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xffeea6…
08-06 19:39:29	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on August 6?	Yes	SELL	51	23¢	$12	0xa7c5d8…
08-06 16:39:41	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	51	50¢	$26	0x7a55a1…
08-06 16:38:23	wta gibson alexand 2026 08 05	Talia Gibson	SELL	207	13¢	$27	0x8a302b…
08-06 15:58:06	wta gibson alexand 2026 08 05	Talia Gibson	BUY	207	54¢	$112	0xaf8faf…
08-06 14:56:51	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on August 6?	Yes	SELL	106	12¢	$13	0x8d570f…
08-06 14:03:06	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	106	38¢	$40	0xd5a5fd…
08-06 13:39:26	Will there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9?	No	SELL	179	81¢	$145	0x1bcccf…
08-04 11:38:57	Will there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9?	No	BUY	179	54¢	$98	0x24c0ce…
06-21 20:26:56	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 21?	Yes	BUY	3	81¢	$2	0x4e96f1…
06-21 19:55:35	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 21?	Yes	BUY	162	89¢	$145	0x4b99ea…
06-21 19:53:32	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21?	Yes	SELL	149	100¢	$148	0xa23daf…
06-21 13:42:02	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21?	Yes	BUY	149	63¢	$93	0xc29bda…
06-09 14:57:12	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 9?	Yes	BUY	78	45¢	$35	0xb403ee…
06-09 14:35:58	Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9?	Yes	SELL	58	62¢	$36	0x8d3704…
06-09 13:17:24	Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9?	Yes	BUY	58	72¢	$42	0x6a0725…
06-08 22:05:49	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 8?	Yes	SELL	43	100¢	$43	0xdaafbb…
06-08 15:48:31	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 8?	Yes	BUY	43	54¢	$24	0xadfa1d…
06-08 15:26:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-08 15:25 UTC	Down	BUY	23	69¢	$16	0x0f2858…
06-08 15:16:25	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 8?	Yes	SELL	249	7¢	$18	0x699e08…
06-08 11:56:22	Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%?	Yes	BUY	345	1¢	$5	0x53c031…
06-08 11:55:28	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 8?	Yes	SELL	8	51¢	$4	0xe866af…
06-08 10:45:22	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 8?	Yes	BUY	256	66¢	$169	0xdbfb95…
06-08 10:43:57	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 8?	Yes	BUY	1	50¢	$0	0x2e4c42…
06-08 07:25:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-08 07:25 UTC	Up	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0x738a57…
06-08 06:33:34	Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%?	Yes	SELL	417	0¢	$0	0x5c09e7…
06-07 20:38:48	Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 75% and 80%?	Yes	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0xa64132…
06-07 20:38:25	Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%?	Yes	BUY	417	15¢	$61	0xfcdec5…
06-07 20:37:30	Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 75% and 80%?	Yes	BUY	331	60¢	$200	0x9ee6e2…
06-07 20:21:31	Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m?	Yes	SELL	175	97¢	$169	0x056088…
06-07 19:20:30	Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m?	Yes	SELL	111	94¢	$105	0xa7481a…
06-07 19:05:48	Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m?	Yes	BUY	117	97¢	$114	0xfe9f41…
06-07 19:03:36	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 7?	Yes	SELL	1	56¢	$1	0x3c418f…
06-07 19:02:58	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 7?	Yes	SELL	7	55¢	$4	0x49be08…
06-07 19:02:42	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 7?	Yes	SELL	193	58¢	$112	0xcf9af4…
06-07 18:27:07	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 7?	Yes	BUY	51	56¢	$29	0xd928cd…
06-07 18:22:16	Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m?	Yes	SELL	30	97¢	$29	0x331bd8…
06-07 17:58:42	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 7?	Yes	BUY	150	73¢	$110	0x310105…
06-07 17:55:40	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 7?	Yes	SELL	129	20¢	$26	0xbc4648…
06-07 17:44:00	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 7?	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xaa5669…
06-07 17:00:18	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 7?	Yes	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xd8b329…
06-07 16:58:13	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 7?	Yes	BUY	12	52¢	$6	0x4b51f9…
06-07 16:21:15	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 7?	Yes	BUY	58	52¢	$30	0x5aa82e…
06-07 16:20:58	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 7?	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x78a2cb…