Warped-Burn — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$16

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

37.7%

Resolved

Trades

217

lifetime

Volume

$4.76K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$22

Open exposure

$51

1 position

First seen

2026-02-12

last 09-09 01:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 44 days

Categories

Other

44% 42% -$10

Politics

23% 26% -$6

Crypto

19% 60% +$19

Tech

7% 20% $0

Sports

7% 33% +$14

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No		-51	-$50	99¢	$-51	-$1	06-22 00:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	4	$170	86	86	+0	No	+$0	04-28 09:32
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	5	$157	55	106	-51	open	—	06-22 00:50
will bitcoin reach 100k in march 2026	4	$112	56	56	+0	No	+$0	03-12 03:20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	2	$100	50	50	+0	No	$0	04-28 09:31
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	2	$99	50	50	+0	No	$0	04-28 09:33
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?	2	$99	50	50	+0	No	$0	04-28 09:33
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	2	$99	51	51	+0	No	$0	04-28 09:34
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	5	$94	48	48	+0	open	—	05-14 08:12
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	4	$92	46	46	+0	No	$0	06-12 03:50
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	2	$90	46	46	+0	No	$0	05-08 11:51
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May?	2	$86	43	43	+0	No	$0	05-14 08:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-20 10:55 UTC	4	$83	52	51	+0	Down	+$5	02-20 10:59
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$81	41	41	+0	No	$0	04-25 13:40
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?	2	$80	40	40	+0	No	$0	05-14 08:12
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	3	$80	41	41	+0	No	$0	05-08 11:52
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	4	$78	40	40	+0	No	+$0	04-17 04:29
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	2	$71	37	37	+0	No	$0	04-15 00:34
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April?	2	$70	35	35	+0	No	+$0	04-19 10:06
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	2	$68	34	34	+0	No	+$0	07-26 01:44
Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026?	2	$68	35	35	+0	open	—	07-22 10:02
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?	2	$68	35	35	+0	No	$0	05-28 23:34
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	2	$68	36	36	+0	open	—	07-21 10:13
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	2	$68	34	34	+0	No	$0	07-10 03:20
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	2	$68	34	34	+0	open	—	08-13 09:45
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	4	$66	34	34	+0	open	—	07-22 02:03
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in August?	2	$66	33	33	+0	No	+$0	08-23 14:16
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-26 13:00 UTC	2	$65	48	47	+1	Up	+$9	03-26 13:01
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	2	$60	30	30	+0	No	$0	05-24 05:21
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$60	30	30	+0	No	$0	07-05 11:11
trump out as president by march 31	2	$56	28	28	+0	No	$0	03-08 07:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-09 01:07:16	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	34	98¢	$33	0x7a33c8…
09-09 01:06:52	Will Dune: Messiah have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x927d48…
09-03 01:20:36	Will Dune: Messiah have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x5bfe81…
09-03 01:20:12	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x31ddb2…
09-01 01:07:10	NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0xd430f9…
09-01 01:06:49	Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	13	98¢	$13	0x0d9e2d…
09-01 01:06:43	Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x8f1874…
08-31 01:51:13	Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x6aa059…
08-31 01:50:55	Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x925611…
08-31 01:50:39	Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?	No	SELL	14	99¢	$13	0x538c94…
08-31 01:50:34	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x63eb88…
08-23 14:17:30	Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$13	0x87eaf4…
08-23 14:17:01	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x284974…
08-23 14:16:37	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in August?	No	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0xa3d9c1…
08-20 01:49:33	will wti reach 140 in august 2026	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x12577c…
08-20 01:49:13	Will Mark Zuckerberg be richest person on December 31?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$13	0x540795…
08-20 01:49:09	Will Steve Ballmer be richest person on December 31?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xb4e7e4…
08-13 09:45:40	Will Mark Zuckerberg be richest person on December 31?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$13	0xb13d6a…
08-13 09:45:28	Will Steve Ballmer be richest person on December 31?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x3a8c25…
08-13 09:45:12	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	34	98¢	$34	0x025328…
08-01 02:26:53	Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	34	99¢	$34	0x3cbd25…
08-01 02:26:27	Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	14	98¢	$14	0xb827d1…
08-01 02:26:23	Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x5b83ec…
07-29 09:23:57	Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0x29f66b…
07-29 09:23:24	Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xd36c2f…
07-29 09:23:03	Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xa5f786…
07-29 09:22:59	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x8d9712…
07-26 01:47:13	Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x17ff77…
07-26 01:45:54	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x1e122e…
07-26 01:44:54	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	SELL	34	99¢	$34	0x3f5cee…
07-23 07:11:09	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	34	99¢	$34	0x93a968…
07-23 07:10:54	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0xd5bc93…
07-23 07:10:46	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x9161d0…
07-22 10:03:34	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0x3ecd0e…
07-22 10:03:16	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xb7d1b8…
07-22 10:02:58	Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	35	98¢	$34	0x793122…
07-22 02:06:09	Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	35	98¢	$34	0xdf234e…
07-22 02:03:28	Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x156973…
07-22 02:03:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xcc47f7…
07-21 10:13:54	Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x031ecc…
07-21 10:13:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xbb8c23…
07-21 10:13:16	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?	No	SELL	36	94¢	$34	0x036f0f…
07-20 11:32:30	will anthropics valuation hit high 5pt0t by december 31	No	BUY	36	95¢	$34	0xe4da77…
07-20 11:32:12	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	15	96¢	$14	0xcacfe2…
07-20 11:32:04	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xa22a10…
07-20 07:43:31	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	15	96¢	$14	0x519bb5…
07-20 07:42:58	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x694ab0…
07-20 07:42:43	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	SELL	16	95¢	$15	0x55483c…
07-20 07:42:36	Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0xd2983b…
07-10 03:21:11	Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	BUY	19	98¢	$19	0x5958c7…
07-10 03:20:47	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	16	95¢	$15	0xe877d9…
07-10 03:20:29	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	No	SELL	34	98¢	$34	0x1596b0…
07-07 04:59:40	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	No	BUY	34	99¢	$34	0x67ebdd…
07-07 04:59:20	Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	BUY	26	9¢	$2	0xe2ceeb…
07-07 04:59:01	Will Corbin Carroll win the 2026 National League MVP Award?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x01ef2c…
07-07 04:58:56	Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0xe7bad6…
07-07 04:58:44	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0x873866…
07-05 11:12:08	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x09a5b1…
07-05 11:11:46	Will Corbin Carroll win the 2026 National League MVP Award?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x067d11…
07-05 11:11:25	Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xd91222…
07-05 11:11:01	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0xbe692c…
06-30 00:08:31	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x6ba2d9…
06-30 00:08:11	Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	8	32¢	$2	0x2aeb93…
06-30 00:07:46	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xf1d264…
06-30 00:07:40	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	27	94¢	$25	0x126907…
06-22 00:51:17	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x9e41c9…
06-22 00:50:58	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	27	94¢	$25	0x3a0afd…
06-22 00:50:37	Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	16	98¢	$15	0x7067a7…
06-22 00:50:25	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	17	98¢	$16	0x4dc69b…
06-12 03:51:51	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	17	98¢	$16	0xc5edc3…
06-12 03:51:06	Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	16	95¢	$15	0x2bffbb…
06-12 03:50:33	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0xa03c43…
05-28 23:35:47	Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xdda48f…
05-28 23:35:33	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x9b5f0a…
05-28 23:34:26	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?	No	SELL	35	98¢	$34	0x9f10a7…
05-27 03:30:57	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?	No	BUY	35	98¢	$34	0x84469b…
05-27 03:30:36	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June?	No	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0xb79d2f…
05-27 03:30:15	Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x65cc41…
05-25 07:55:39	Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x094a32…
05-25 07:55:11	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x8ffa07…
05-25 07:54:08	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	38	98¢	$37	0x6cb948…
05-24 05:22:13	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	38	98¢	$37	0x059c89…
05-24 05:21:34	Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xa5fd84…
05-24 05:21:31	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0xd9d450…
05-21 15:59:29	Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xb6d830…
05-21 15:58:51	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xbc4753…
05-21 15:57:41	Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x0efd2e…
05-21 15:57:35	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	SELL	15	98¢	$15	0x222f0b…
05-21 15:57:28	Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets in May 2026?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xad3e03…
05-20 10:15:48	Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xfb7c8b…
05-20 10:15:06	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0xdbaee9…
05-20 10:14:24	Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets in May 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x419637…
05-20 10:14:06	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May?	No	SELL	11	97¢	$10	0x74abc7…
05-20 10:14:01	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0xb52b64…
05-18 09:54:28	Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May?	No	BUY	11	97¢	$10	0x298aaa…
05-18 09:53:53	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x4dd62b…
05-18 09:52:52	Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x10cb6a…
05-18 09:52:47	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	22	92¢	$20	0xe958f1…
05-18 09:52:42	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	3	2¢	$0	0x61f0ea…
05-14 08:17:17	Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0x66a9c3…