Careless-Leeway — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$18

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

71.0%

Resolved

Trades

339

lifetime

Volume

$10.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$30

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-10

last 07-22 11:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

52% — —

Other

42% — —

Crypto

5% 50% $-18

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

31 active days in 12wk • peak 45 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	45	$1.6K	1,512	1,512	+0	open	—	05-24 13:51
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	9	$1.5K	1,090	1,090	+0	open	—	05-10 20:31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	12	$983	650	650	+0	open	—	05-25 18:03
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18?	13	$870	600	600	+0	open	—	05-18 07:40
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 22?	10	$428	395	345	+50	open	—	05-22 12:12
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	3	$408	290	280	+10	open	—	05-12 08:48
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 22?	13	$396	300	300	+0	open	—	05-22 03:53
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	2	$394	200	200	+0	open	—	05-31 19:16
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26?	8	$340	400	400	+0	open	—	05-26 14:10
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	2	$334	200	200	+0	open	—	05-25 20:11
spy up or down on july 21 2026	3	$328	316	316	+0	open	—	07-20 23:36
spy up or down on july 15 2026	3	$298	410	410	+0	open	—	07-15 08:17
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	3	$288	300	300	+0	open	—	06-14 10:06
spy up or down on july 14 2026	8	$241	210	210	+0	open	—	07-14 03:14
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	1	$225	0	300	-300	open	—	05-23 07:44
spy up or down on june 16 2026	9	$189	150	150	+0	open	—	06-16 14:58
Fed rate hike in 2026?	2	$174	200	200	+0	open	—	06-25 12:42
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 28?	4	$158	100	100	+0	open	—	05-28 11:47
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 19?	6	$145	100	92	+8	open	—	05-19 14:01
wti up or down on june 18 2026	6	$122	73	73	+0	open	—	06-18 15:14
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29?	2	$104	100	100	+0	open	—	05-29 00:25
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21?	4	$38	20	20	+0	open	—	05-21 20:23
wti up or down on july 15 2026	4	$29	30	30	+0	open	—	07-14 22:34
wti up or down on june 17 2026	4	$23	23	23	+0	open	—	06-16 23:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	05-14 12:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	05-14 10:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	05-14 13:09
spy up or down on july 22 2026	2	$18	18	18	+0	open	—	07-22 01:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	3	$16	10	10	+0	open	—	05-15 00:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	2	$14	30	0	+30	open	—	05-14 12:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 11:15:55	btc updown 5m 1784718900	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x9acd55…
07-22 01:02:13	spy up or down on july 22 2026	Down	SELL	18	49¢	$9	0x0173ca…
07-21 22:41:07	spy up or down on july 22 2026	Down	BUY	18	48¢	$9	0xd8d7ec…
07-20 23:36:12	spy up or down on july 21 2026	Up	SELL	316	52¢	$164	0x8fa188…
07-20 22:01:46	spy up or down on july 21 2026	Up	BUY	116	51¢	$59	0xc06a9b…
07-20 22:01:45	spy up or down on july 21 2026	Up	BUY	200	52¢	$104	0x3da229…
07-20 21:53:24	btc updown 5m 1784584200	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xbca270…
07-19 08:33:22	btc updown 5m 1784449800	Down	SELL	2	31¢	$1	0x09a9da…
07-19 08:31:16	btc updown 5m 1784449800	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x44e3e8…
07-19 08:24:58	btc updown 5m 1784449200	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x3882e6…
07-19 08:24:07	btc updown 5m 1784449200	Down	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xd71ea6…
07-19 08:19:04	btc updown 5m 1784448900	Down	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x7f3d6a…
07-19 08:18:31	btc updown 5m 1784448900	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x226cdf…
07-19 08:13:27	btc updown 5m 1784448600	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x8a6cbb…
07-19 08:05:40	btc updown 5m 1784448300	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xdd097d…
07-16 12:52:38	btc updown 5m 1784206200	Down	SELL	2	30¢	$1	0xa33e21…
07-16 12:49:11	btc updown 5m 1784206200	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xf97f0a…
07-16 12:46:20	btc updown 5m 1784205900	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x85474f…
07-16 10:28:10	btc updown 5m 1784197500	Up	SELL	2	15¢	$0	0xfd6dd1…
07-16 10:25:55	btc updown 5m 1784197500	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x66eaa9…
07-16 10:21:49	btc updown 5m 1784197200	Down	SELL	2	78¢	$1	0xb91790…
07-16 10:20:28	btc updown 5m 1784197200	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x921e6b…
07-16 10:16:29	btc updown 5m 1784196900	Up	SELL	3	59¢	$2	0x08971f…
07-16 10:15:56	btc updown 5m 1784196900	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x08173a…
07-15 12:25:53	btc updown 5m 1784118300	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x7db8ef…
07-15 12:12:55	btc updown 5m 1784117400	Up	SELL	4	71¢	$3	0x9b9b3d…
07-15 12:10:31	btc updown 5m 1784117400	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xb3d23d…
07-15 08:17:19	spy up or down on july 15 2026	Down	SELL	410	37¢	$152	0x20ff25…
07-15 04:32:13	spy up or down on july 15 2026	Down	BUY	200	26¢	$52	0x62b55c…
07-14 23:32:29	spy up or down on july 15 2026	Down	BUY	210	45¢	$94	0x1632ef…
07-14 22:34:10	wti up or down on july 15 2026	Down	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x883039…
07-14 22:30:38	wti up or down on july 15 2026	Down	SELL	20	49¢	$10	0x669d9c…
07-14 21:20:04	wti up or down on july 15 2026	Down	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x9d5b84…
07-14 21:20:04	wti up or down on july 15 2026	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x3045fd…
07-14 03:14:08	spy up or down on july 14 2026	Down	SELL	4	58¢	$3	0x08d892…
07-14 03:13:22	spy up or down on july 14 2026	Down	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0x463260…
07-14 03:13:22	spy up or down on july 14 2026	Down	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0x3d0a31…
07-14 00:09:56	spy up or down on july 14 2026	Down	SELL	50	58¢	$29	0xdcd9b5…
07-14 00:09:53	spy up or down on july 14 2026	Down	SELL	50	58¢	$29	0x7d31b4…
07-14 00:07:37	spy up or down on july 14 2026	Down	SELL	50	58¢	$29	0x87282a…
07-13 23:48:02	spy up or down on july 14 2026	Down	SELL	52	58¢	$30	0x7fb47b…
07-13 23:06:55	spy up or down on july 14 2026	Down	BUY	210	57¢	$120	0x3dae4e…
06-25 12:42:26	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	200	45¢	$90	0x4bb504…
06-19 00:28:14	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	200	42¢	$84	0xb14142…
06-18 15:14:10	wti up or down on june 18 2026	Down	SELL	59	95¢	$56	0xced8ff…
06-18 14:37:56	wti up or down on june 18 2026	Down	SELL	14	95¢	$13	0xa96719…
06-18 10:05:11	wti up or down on june 18 2026	Down	BUY	6	72¢	$4	0xc196ee…
06-18 10:04:35	wti up or down on june 18 2026	Down	BUY	13	72¢	$9	0x75ab3b…
06-18 10:04:13	wti up or down on june 18 2026	Down	BUY	9	72¢	$6	0xc2d512…
06-18 10:03:01	wti up or down on june 18 2026	Down	BUY	45	72¢	$32	0xccf044…
06-16 23:34:41	wti up or down on june 17 2026	Down	SELL	3	50¢	$2	0xe3b25d…
06-16 22:15:46	wti up or down on june 17 2026	Down	SELL	10	50¢	$5	0xc6b4eb…
06-16 22:15:34	wti up or down on june 17 2026	Down	SELL	10	50¢	$5	0x0eb551…
06-16 22:13:28	wti up or down on june 17 2026	Down	BUY	23	48¢	$11	0xb859a7…
06-16 14:58:43	spy up or down on june 16 2026	Down	SELL	5	67¢	$3	0x46fdc4…
06-16 14:42:35	spy up or down on june 16 2026	Down	SELL	6	56¢	$3	0x526053…
06-16 14:42:07	spy up or down on june 16 2026	Down	SELL	44	56¢	$25	0x3d4c1a…
06-16 14:40:38	spy up or down on june 16 2026	Down	BUY	50	56¢	$28	0x5ade64…
06-16 14:37:23	spy up or down on june 16 2026	Down	SELL	51	67¢	$34	0x3f7d6a…
06-16 14:37:11	spy up or down on june 16 2026	Down	SELL	44	67¢	$30	0x9abe05…
06-16 14:36:10	spy up or down on june 16 2026	Down	BUY	36	66¢	$23	0xc4df63…
06-16 14:36:08	spy up or down on june 16 2026	Down	BUY	42	66¢	$28	0xb4bf81…
06-16 14:36:08	spy up or down on june 16 2026	Down	BUY	23	66¢	$15	0x602068…
06-14 10:06:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	300	48¢	$144	0xa3c53b…
06-14 10:03:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	48¢	$48	0x5df392…
05-31 19:16:01	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	200	99¢	$198	0x1e247a…
05-31 15:04:36	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0xfb76bb…
05-31 11:59:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x1fbe90…
05-31 11:58:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xf004b3…
05-31 11:09:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	SELL	4	29¢	$1	0x46c849…
05-31 11:09:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x2b16b1…
05-31 04:21:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xbfd366…
05-31 04:19:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xfdf8f1…
05-31 04:18:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0x03a827…
05-31 04:17:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x4d6b16…
05-29 00:25:41	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29?	Down	SELL	100	53¢	$53	0x1348eb…
05-28 23:06:35	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29?	Down	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0x1f4dc7…
05-28 13:48:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	SELL	3	9¢	$0	0xb8a8d5…
05-28 13:46:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x3dbe01…
05-28 13:41:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xd7f9a0…
05-28 11:47:21	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 28?	Up	SELL	42	80¢	$34	0xaea6b0…
05-28 11:43:37	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 28?	Up	SELL	50	80¢	$40	0x653102…
05-28 11:39:44	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 28?	Up	SELL	8	80¢	$6	0x96e88b…
05-28 11:14:10	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 28?	Up	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0x0bae30…
05-26 14:10:29	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26?	Up	SELL	100	36¢	$36	0x2240ba…
05-26 14:01:46	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26?	Up	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0x885f20…
05-26 07:06:15	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26?	Up	SELL	100	51¢	$51	0xccc8c8…
05-26 05:36:41	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26?	Up	BUY	100	48¢	$48	0x891221…
05-26 05:32:55	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26?	Up	BUY	100	52¢	$52	0xabeb4c…
05-25 23:01:41	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26?	Up	SELL	100	41¢	$41	0x1d6e1a…
05-25 23:01:02	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26?	Up	SELL	100	41¢	$41	0x512088…
05-25 22:59:02	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26?	Up	BUY	100	36¢	$36	0x29027e…
05-25 20:11:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	200	84¢	$168	0xd3da3a…
05-25 20:10:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	200	83¢	$166	0x234e94…
05-25 18:03:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	146	67¢	$98	0xbd22ae…
05-25 18:02:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	54	67¢	$36	0x6d005b…
05-25 14:46:38	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	66¢	$132	0x3d5f8a…
05-25 12:25:05	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	66¢	$132	0x9ab0c0…
05-25 12:23:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0x683e73…
05-25 10:44:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x001adb…