Careless-Leeway — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$18

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

71.0%

Resolved

Trades

297

lifetime

Volume

$9.28K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$31

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-10

last 06-25 12:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

58% — —

Other

37% — —

Crypto

6% 50% $-18

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 45 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	45	$1.6K	1,512	1,512	+0	open	—	05-24 13:51
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	9	$1.5K	1,090	1,090	+0	open	—	05-10 20:31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	12	$983	650	650	+0	open	—	05-25 18:03
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18?	13	$870	600	600	+0	open	—	05-18 07:40
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 22?	10	$428	395	345	+50	open	—	05-22 12:12
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	3	$408	290	280	+10	open	—	05-12 08:48
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 22?	13	$396	300	300	+0	open	—	05-22 03:53
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	2	$394	200	200	+0	open	—	05-31 19:16
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26?	8	$340	400	400	+0	open	—	05-26 14:10
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	2	$334	200	200	+0	open	—	05-25 20:11
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	3	$288	300	300	+0	open	—	06-14 10:06
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	1	$225	0	300	-300	open	—	05-23 07:44
spy up or down on june 16 2026	9	$189	150	150	+0	open	—	06-16 14:58
Fed rate hike in 2026?	2	$174	200	200	+0	open	—	06-25 12:42
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 28?	4	$158	100	100	+0	open	—	05-28 11:47
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 19?	6	$145	100	92	+8	open	—	05-19 14:01
wti up or down on june 18 2026	6	$122	73	73	+0	open	—	06-18 15:14
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29?	2	$104	100	100	+0	open	—	05-29 00:25
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21?	4	$38	20	20	+0	open	—	05-21 20:23
wti up or down on june 17 2026	4	$23	23	23	+0	open	—	06-16 23:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	05-14 12:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	05-14 10:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	05-14 13:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	3	$16	10	10	+0	open	—	05-15 00:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	2	$14	30	0	+30	open	—	05-14 12:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11AM ET	2	$13	33	33	+0	Down	+$3	05-12 15:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	2	$12	7	7	+0	open	—	05-23 13:33
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 21?	2	$12	8	8	+0	open	—	05-21 14:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	2	$12	100	100	+0	Down	+$2	05-12 14:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	1	$11	11	0	+11	open	—	05-25 10:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-25 12:42:26	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	200	45¢	$90	0x4bb504…
06-19 00:28:14	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	200	42¢	$84	0xb14142…
06-18 15:14:10	wti up or down on june 18 2026	Down	SELL	59	95¢	$56	0xced8ff…
06-18 14:37:56	wti up or down on june 18 2026	Down	SELL	14	95¢	$13	0xa96719…
06-18 10:05:11	wti up or down on june 18 2026	Down	BUY	6	72¢	$4	0xc196ee…
06-18 10:04:35	wti up or down on june 18 2026	Down	BUY	13	72¢	$9	0x75ab3b…
06-18 10:04:13	wti up or down on june 18 2026	Down	BUY	9	72¢	$6	0xc2d512…
06-18 10:03:01	wti up or down on june 18 2026	Down	BUY	45	72¢	$32	0xccf044…
06-16 23:34:41	wti up or down on june 17 2026	Down	SELL	3	50¢	$2	0xe3b25d…
06-16 22:15:46	wti up or down on june 17 2026	Down	SELL	10	50¢	$5	0xc6b4eb…
06-16 22:15:34	wti up or down on june 17 2026	Down	SELL	10	50¢	$5	0x0eb551…
06-16 22:13:28	wti up or down on june 17 2026	Down	BUY	23	48¢	$11	0xb859a7…
06-16 14:58:43	spy up or down on june 16 2026	Down	SELL	5	67¢	$3	0x46fdc4…
06-16 14:42:35	spy up or down on june 16 2026	Down	SELL	6	56¢	$3	0x526053…
06-16 14:42:07	spy up or down on june 16 2026	Down	SELL	44	56¢	$25	0x3d4c1a…
06-16 14:40:38	spy up or down on june 16 2026	Down	BUY	50	56¢	$28	0x5ade64…
06-16 14:37:23	spy up or down on june 16 2026	Down	SELL	51	67¢	$34	0x3f7d6a…
06-16 14:37:11	spy up or down on june 16 2026	Down	SELL	44	67¢	$30	0x9abe05…
06-16 14:36:10	spy up or down on june 16 2026	Down	BUY	36	66¢	$23	0xc4df63…
06-16 14:36:08	spy up or down on june 16 2026	Down	BUY	42	66¢	$28	0xb4bf81…
06-16 14:36:08	spy up or down on june 16 2026	Down	BUY	23	66¢	$15	0x602068…
06-14 10:06:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	300	48¢	$144	0xa3c53b…
06-14 10:03:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	48¢	$48	0x5df392…
05-31 19:16:01	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	200	99¢	$198	0x1e247a…
05-31 15:04:36	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0xfb76bb…
05-31 11:59:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x1fbe90…
05-31 11:58:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xf004b3…
05-31 11:09:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	SELL	4	29¢	$1	0x46c849…
05-31 11:09:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x2b16b1…
05-31 04:21:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xbfd366…
05-31 04:19:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xfdf8f1…
05-31 04:18:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0x03a827…
05-31 04:17:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x4d6b16…
05-29 00:25:41	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29?	Down	SELL	100	53¢	$53	0x1348eb…
05-28 23:06:35	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29?	Down	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0x1f4dc7…
05-28 13:48:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	SELL	3	9¢	$0	0xb8a8d5…
05-28 13:46:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x3dbe01…
05-28 13:41:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xd7f9a0…
05-28 11:47:21	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 28?	Up	SELL	42	80¢	$34	0xaea6b0…
05-28 11:43:37	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 28?	Up	SELL	50	80¢	$40	0x653102…
05-28 11:39:44	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 28?	Up	SELL	8	80¢	$6	0x96e88b…
05-28 11:14:10	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 28?	Up	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0x0bae30…
05-26 14:10:29	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26?	Up	SELL	100	36¢	$36	0x2240ba…
05-26 14:01:46	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26?	Up	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0x885f20…
05-26 07:06:15	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26?	Up	SELL	100	51¢	$51	0xccc8c8…
05-26 05:36:41	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26?	Up	BUY	100	48¢	$48	0x891221…
05-26 05:32:55	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26?	Up	BUY	100	52¢	$52	0xabeb4c…
05-25 23:01:41	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26?	Up	SELL	100	41¢	$41	0x1d6e1a…
05-25 23:01:02	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26?	Up	SELL	100	41¢	$41	0x512088…
05-25 22:59:02	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26?	Up	BUY	100	36¢	$36	0x29027e…
05-25 20:11:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	200	84¢	$168	0xd3da3a…
05-25 20:10:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	200	83¢	$166	0x234e94…
05-25 18:03:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	146	67¢	$98	0xbd22ae…
05-25 18:02:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	54	67¢	$36	0x6d005b…
05-25 14:46:38	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	66¢	$132	0x3d5f8a…
05-25 12:25:05	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	66¢	$132	0x9ab0c0…
05-25 12:23:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0x683e73…
05-25 10:44:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x001adb…
05-25 10:34:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	13	47¢	$6	0x6b1731…
05-25 10:34:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x34ad6c…
05-25 10:34:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xc704ce…
05-25 10:29:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xf02406…
05-24 13:51:33	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	SELL	100	38¢	$38	0x02ee3d…
05-24 13:49:38	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	SELL	58	59¢	$34	0x806488…
05-24 13:47:47	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0xeface0…
05-24 13:47:42	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0xf7cd63…
05-24 13:47:19	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0x478de6…
05-24 13:45:20	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0xf085b4…
05-24 13:44:52	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	SELL	31	60¢	$19	0xffa045…
05-24 13:37:07	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0xd7f0cd…
05-24 13:12:46	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	SELL	100	53¢	$53	0x1de68c…
05-24 13:06:49	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	BUY	47	48¢	$22	0x7a93e4…
05-24 13:06:08	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$3	0x03f5e6…
05-24 13:02:56	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x7d6100…
05-24 13:02:51	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	BUY	46	48¢	$22	0x3b7579…
05-24 12:58:30	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	SELL	100	56¢	$56	0x711cc4…
05-24 12:57:50	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	BUY	100	52¢	$52	0xd0c08b…
05-24 12:44:12	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	SELL	100	55¢	$55	0xbae4ff…
05-24 12:29:51	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	BUY	100	54¢	$54	0xa4d380…
05-24 11:50:39	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	BUY	84	55¢	$46	0x4ccc02…
05-24 11:50:18	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	BUY	16	55¢	$9	0x305a1d…
05-24 11:48:54	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	SELL	100	54¢	$54	0xddfa9c…
05-24 09:03:53	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	BUY	100	53¢	$53	0x3aa371…
05-24 09:00:30	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	SELL	100	57¢	$57	0x970086…
05-24 08:23:22	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	BUY	95	56¢	$53	0x95c573…
05-24 08:23:19	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x7ec575…
05-24 08:23:06	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xac78aa…
05-24 08:09:50	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	SELL	100	58¢	$58	0x2dfcb2…
05-24 08:06:59	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0xdb01a2…
05-24 08:03:30	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	SELL	100	58¢	$58	0x79ee7e…
05-24 08:01:09	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0xb76c50…
05-24 07:51:10	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	SELL	66	58¢	$38	0x875594…
05-24 07:50:11	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	SELL	34	59¢	$20	0xdff9d9…
05-24 07:46:06	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0x365e66…
05-24 07:44:56	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	SELL	111	58¢	$64	0x27bc98…
05-24 07:43:39	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0x3e01a7…
05-24 07:41:13	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	BUY	8	55¢	$4	0xef4926…
05-24 07:40:59	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x06ba1f…
05-24 07:40:37	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	Yes	BUY	100	54¢	$54	0x2e2271…
05-24 03:28:56	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0xa7014c…