Sudden-Reliability — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

33.6%

Resolved

Trades

331

lifetime

Volume

$329

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-05

last 07-04 07:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

37% 0% $-0

Politics

31% — —

Crypto

25% 67% +$0

Tech

4% — —

Sports

2% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

58 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No		-1	$-1	86¢	$-1	$-0	06-15 07:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	12	$14	7	7	+0	open	—	02-05 08:52
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 4 million	7	$7	3	4	-1	open	—	01-14 03:12
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-20 07:17
will bitcoin reach 67500 in june 2026 from june 4	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	06-27 07:56
Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-15 06:20
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	02-12 07:11
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-16 07:34
will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	01-24 10:05
over 20m committed to the ranger public sale 942	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	01-07 09:36
nothing ever happens microstrategy	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	02-20 07:27
bitcoin above 68k on march 14	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-14 06:10
Sentio FDV above $20M one day after launch?	2	$2	1	1	+0	Yes	+$0	04-03 06:37
will arirang bts be the billboard 200 1 album for the week of april 4	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-27 09:31
Over $500k committed to the Pharos public sale?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-25 06:10
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-03 06:39
Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-11 06:15
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-18 08:15
will bitcoin reach 85k in march 2026	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-27 09:32
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-23 04:15
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-27 08:20
will the price of bitcoin be between 70000 72000 on april 20	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-20 08:31
will marty supreme win best picture at the 98th academy awards	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-10 03:35
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 27?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-27 03:53
kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-24 08:58
trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 12 20260607232556274	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-11 08:26
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-29 06:50
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-07 00:57
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-05 06:32
kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	07-04 07:28
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-18 05:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-04 07:28:02	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xfce181…
07-04 07:12:49	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xb53c64…
07-03 09:22:05	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xf459fa…
07-03 09:09:28	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x792d0d…
07-03 09:04:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xefc3eb…
07-03 08:57:10	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x44dc54…
07-01 06:52:13	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x4a9684…
07-01 06:50:02	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xd43911…
07-01 06:35:35	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xdb4cc1…
07-01 06:30:32	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xa3253f…
06-30 07:10:28	will ethereum dip to 1500 in june 2026	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x31376e…
06-30 06:58:29	will ethereum dip to 1500 in june 2026	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x111618…
06-29 08:02:55	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	No	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0x21d606…
06-29 07:51:37	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	No	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xb24ec3…
06-27 07:56:58	will bitcoin reach 67500 in june 2026 from june 4	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xbfe3ba…
06-27 07:55:26	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x288e59…
06-27 07:46:20	will bitcoin reach 67500 in june 2026 from june 4	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x8ff000…
06-27 07:32:20	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x07a135…
06-26 08:40:56	will bitcoin reach 67500 in june 2026 from june 4	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x4de423…
06-26 08:38:38	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x1a4750…
06-26 08:27:52	will bitcoin reach 67500 in june 2026 from june 4	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xe9919c…
06-26 08:23:20	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xbb23f8…
06-25 07:27:04	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt3t by june 30	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x0bab25…
06-25 07:25:49	will trump speak to pope leo xiv in june	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x4fe156…
06-25 07:14:41	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt3t by june 30	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xb95861…
06-25 07:10:20	will trump speak to pope leo xiv in june	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd29d9d…
06-24 08:58:41	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x9b9697…
06-24 08:25:56	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x8274ad…
06-22 07:42:17	Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x297607…
06-22 07:40:47	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x339286…
06-22 07:25:49	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x092ba4…
06-22 07:19:38	Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x399ab2…
06-21 07:37:25	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xd4d240…
06-21 07:36:37	will bitcoin dip to 62k june 15 21 2026	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xaf251c…
06-21 07:22:37	will bitcoin dip to 62k june 15 21 2026	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x08470a…
06-21 07:19:26	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x67075b…
06-18 07:50:46	Will the US federal government take a stake in Rigetti Computing, Inc.?	Yes	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x781d16…
06-18 07:35:28	Will the US federal government take a stake in Rigetti Computing, Inc.?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x68cec4…
06-17 07:32:28	will ethereum dip to 1400 in june 2026	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xa18b5e…
06-17 07:29:44	will jd vance attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204739	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xa946b8…
06-17 07:17:38	will ethereum dip to 1400 in june 2026	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x8a7124…
06-17 07:09:41	will jd vance attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204739	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xeaaeaf…
06-16 07:49:00	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x5bc507…
06-16 07:47:54	will bitcoin reach 80k in june 2026	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x4425db…
06-16 07:28:42	will bitcoin reach 80k in june 2026	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xfec5ab…
06-16 07:24:04	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xa282b6…
06-15 07:00:31	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0x7580f5…
06-13 08:33:13	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x47872b…
06-13 08:14:31	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x00fe28…
06-12 08:09:30	will base launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x4901a4…
06-12 07:51:39	will base launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xa1f574…
06-11 08:26:36	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 12 20260607232556274	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x9464ca…
06-11 08:22:58	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 12 20260607232556274	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xf71ac7…
06-11 08:15:37	will bulk launch a token by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0xd00401…
06-11 08:14:07	tread fdv above 40m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	1	48¢	$0	0x71496e…
06-11 08:13:18	tread fdv above 40m one day after launch	No	SELL	1	50¢	$0	0x1a3e41…
06-09 03:30:54	Will Nansen launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x53d783…
06-09 03:26:33	Will Nansen launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xb156e7…
06-08 03:13:19	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by july 31	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xddfd87…
06-08 03:09:00	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by july 31	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xed6f74…
06-06 07:48:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x7b7d64…
06-06 07:25:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xe32a0a…
06-05 06:32:12	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x3fad10…
06-05 06:31:00	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 31 2026 20260601225410822	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x4f3c2e…
06-05 06:22:55	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xd38724…
06-05 06:19:03	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 31 2026 20260601225410822	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x01236e…
06-04 07:22:25	israeli forces enter choukine by june 7	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xc8a2e9…
06-04 07:02:40	israeli forces enter choukine by june 7	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x2e40b9…
06-03 07:27:36	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x62ef83…
06-03 07:24:34	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x3371b9…
06-03 06:52:15	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xdd03e4…
06-03 06:27:03	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x784e22…
06-02 06:15:03	Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?	70k	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x874811…
06-02 04:37:45	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xb532ec…
06-02 04:34:59	Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?	70k	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x6d1d37…
05-30 07:08:45	Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xb355d4…
05-29 04:55:37	Will Meta acquire TikTok?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x6c3a26…
05-28 07:15:00	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xf6a195…
05-28 07:13:46	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x4eca0f…
05-28 07:02:08	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x8750c7…
05-28 06:57:51	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x17ddef…
05-27 08:20:41	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xb22a62…
05-27 07:26:25	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x087ff8…
05-25 06:23:25	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x3cf8fd…
05-25 06:05:57	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xcfe8a4…
05-22 07:50:40	Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x0fbdd6…
05-22 07:38:06	Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x55ea93…
05-22 07:24:25	Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x194de8…
05-21 07:49:13	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 21, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xdcf8ea…
05-21 07:40:14	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x4fadba…
05-20 07:17:27	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xe64319…
05-20 06:53:12	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xa6528f…
05-19 06:06:47	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x2177d7…
05-19 04:46:01	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x00f267…
05-18 08:15:29	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x488e70…
05-18 08:06:14	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x8270b9…
05-16 06:46:47	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 11-17?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x34b839…
05-16 06:40:53	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 11-17?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x968ef4…
05-15 06:20:17	Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x7f9e4e…
05-15 06:03:36	Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x56c7bc…