Sudden-Reliability — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

33.6%

Resolved

Trades

280

lifetime

Volume

$279

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 06-11 08:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

37% 0% $-0

Politics

30% — —

Crypto

25% 67% +$0

Tech

4% — —

Sports

3% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

61 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No		+1	$1	97¢	$1	+$0	06-02 04:37
Will Meta acquire TikTok?	No		+1	$1	99¢	$1	+$0	05-29 04:55

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	12	$14	7	7	+0	open	—	02-05 08:52
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 4 million	7	$7	3	4	-1	open	—	01-14 03:12
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-20 07:17
Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-15 06:20
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	02-12 07:11
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	04-16 07:34
will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	01-24 10:05
over 20m committed to the ranger public sale 942	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	01-07 09:36
nothing ever happens microstrategy	4	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	02-20 07:27
bitcoin above 68k on march 14	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-14 06:10
Sentio FDV above $20M one day after launch?	2	$2	1	1	+0	Yes	+$0	04-03 06:37
will arirang bts be the billboard 200 1 album for the week of april 4	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-27 09:31
Over $500k committed to the Pharos public sale?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-25 06:10
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-03 06:39
Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-11 06:15
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-18 08:15
will bitcoin reach 85k in march 2026	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-27 09:32
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-23 04:15
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-27 08:20
will the price of bitcoin be between 70000 72000 on april 20	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-20 08:31
will marty supreme win best picture at the 98th academy awards	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-10 03:35
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 27?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-27 03:53
trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 12 20260607232556274	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-11 08:26
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-29 06:50
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-07 00:57
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-05 06:32
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-18 05:58
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 11-17?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-16 06:46
Will EdgeX launch a token by December 31, 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	03-18 06:38
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	06-03 07:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-11 08:26:36	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 12 20260607232556274	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x9464ca…
06-11 08:22:58	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 12 20260607232556274	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xf71ac7…
06-11 08:15:37	will bulk launch a token by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0xd00401…
06-11 08:14:07	tread fdv above 40m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	1	48¢	$0	0x71496e…
06-11 08:13:18	tread fdv above 40m one day after launch	No	SELL	1	50¢	$0	0x1a3e41…
06-09 03:30:54	Will Nansen launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x53d783…
06-09 03:26:33	Will Nansen launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xb156e7…
06-08 03:13:19	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by july 31	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xddfd87…
06-08 03:09:00	trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by july 31	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xed6f74…
06-06 07:48:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x7b7d64…
06-06 07:25:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xe32a0a…
06-05 06:32:12	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x3fad10…
06-05 06:31:00	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 31 2026 20260601225410822	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x4f3c2e…
06-05 06:22:55	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xd38724…
06-05 06:19:03	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 31 2026 20260601225410822	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x01236e…
06-04 07:22:25	israeli forces enter choukine by june 7	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xc8a2e9…
06-04 07:02:40	israeli forces enter choukine by june 7	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x2e40b9…
06-03 07:27:36	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x62ef83…
06-03 07:24:34	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x3371b9…
06-03 06:52:15	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xdd03e4…
06-03 06:27:03	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x784e22…
06-02 06:15:03	Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?	70k	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x874811…
06-02 04:37:45	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xb532ec…
06-02 04:34:59	Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?	70k	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x6d1d37…
05-30 07:08:45	Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xb355d4…
05-29 04:55:37	Will Meta acquire TikTok?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x6c3a26…
05-28 07:15:00	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xf6a195…
05-28 07:13:46	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x4eca0f…
05-28 07:02:08	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x8750c7…
05-28 06:57:51	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x17ddef…
05-27 08:20:41	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xb22a62…
05-27 07:26:25	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x087ff8…
05-25 06:23:25	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x3cf8fd…
05-25 06:05:57	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xcfe8a4…
05-22 07:50:40	Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x0fbdd6…
05-22 07:38:06	Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x55ea93…
05-22 07:24:25	Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x194de8…
05-21 07:49:13	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 21, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xdcf8ea…
05-21 07:40:14	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x4fadba…
05-20 07:17:27	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xe64319…
05-20 06:53:12	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xa6528f…
05-19 06:06:47	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x2177d7…
05-19 04:46:01	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x00f267…
05-18 08:15:29	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x488e70…
05-18 08:06:14	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x8270b9…
05-16 06:46:47	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 11-17?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x34b839…
05-16 06:40:53	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 11-17?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x968ef4…
05-15 06:20:17	Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x7f9e4e…
05-15 06:03:36	Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x56c7bc…
05-15 04:39:08	Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x407be1…
05-14 06:45:16	Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 14?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x2a4461…
05-14 06:44:25	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0x5a8848…
05-14 06:37:16	Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 14?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xef13c8…
05-14 06:29:32	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x23b967…
05-13 07:33:22	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x61c24a…
05-13 07:22:19	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x206e20…
05-12 07:24:29	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x1c185e…
05-12 07:22:16	Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	Yes	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x8209c3…
05-12 07:15:04	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x274785…
05-12 07:11:16	Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x7d29e5…
05-11 06:15:17	Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x4f9822…
05-11 04:45:32	Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x713e65…
05-07 04:40:58	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x1ab43e…
05-07 03:45:05	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xd3551e…
05-05 04:42:22	DoorDash total orders above 920M in Q1?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x611fe1…
05-05 04:21:52	DoorDash total orders above 920M in Q1?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x6f206c…
05-04 04:03:22	Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x87a6aa…
05-04 03:43:48	Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xa5f8f3…
04-30 07:10:44	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xd820f2…
04-30 07:01:40	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xd282c5…
04-29 06:50:50	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xe2f73b…
04-29 06:46:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 29?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x789e9b…
04-29 06:34:26	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x2e6de5…
04-29 06:30:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 29?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x41cda4…
04-28 03:34:44	Will Trump say "Queen" during King Charles visit?	Yes	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x63ea25…
04-28 03:27:34	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 28?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xfaa90c…
04-28 03:23:30	Will Trump say "Queen" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x2bf0c2…
04-27 03:53:52	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 27?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x2628fb…
04-27 03:52:38	Will Seoul have less than 40mm of precipitation in April?	Yes	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0xde68ac…
04-27 03:47:18	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 27?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x18eb33…
04-27 03:41:38	Will Seoul have less than 40mm of precipitation in April?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xa02d25…
04-25 06:10:30	Over $500k committed to the Pharos public sale?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x90a331…
04-25 06:09:52	Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x4f5216…
04-25 04:54:00	Over $500k committed to the Pharos public sale?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xb7d471…
04-25 04:50:30	Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x381128…
04-24 03:44:20	Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x26e73b…
04-24 03:36:18	Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x26e622…
04-21 04:29:24	Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x8c6575…
04-21 04:28:34	bitcoin above 72k on april 21	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xe42320…
04-21 03:50:12	bitcoin above 72k on april 21	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x4e4f5a…
04-21 03:47:16	Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x29ffe2…
04-20 08:35:06	Pharos FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xde53c2…
04-20 08:31:52	will the price of bitcoin be between 70000 72000 on april 20	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x5cae6e…
04-20 08:28:48	Pharos FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xf98714…
04-20 08:23:04	will the price of bitcoin be between 70000 72000 on april 20	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xd9833c…
04-18 05:59:40	Will 2–3 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0xe488c2…
04-18 05:58:04	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x8c6d4c…
04-18 04:31:12	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x98cf16…
04-18 04:29:04	Will 2–3 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xa80ff5…
04-17 06:54:12	will the price of bitcoin be between 70000 72000 on april 17	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x76e0a5…