Slushy-Ballot — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$755

Unrealized P&L

+$22

Hit rate

77.5%

Resolved

291

Trades

965

lifetime

Volume

$38.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$40

Open exposure

$68

3 positions

First seen

2026-04-25

last 11-02 20:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 94 days

Categories

Other

42% 55% +$615

Politics

37% 46% -$475

Sports

18% 69% +$587

Crypto

1% 83% +$75

Tech

1% 0% -$62

Pop-Culture

1% 100% +$16

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

48 active days in 12wk • peak 26 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?	No	—	+99	$52	68¢	$67	+$15	10-29 17:46
US imports Russian diesel by December 31?	Yes		+2	$2	62¢	$1	$0	10-23 09:17
us x iran ceasefire continues through november 30 20260918	Yes		+0	-$7	36¢	$0	+$7	10-20 06:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire continues through august 25	4	$2.1K	1,118	1,118	+0	Yes	+$124	08-23 05:38
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	27	$1.9K	1,840	1,840	+0	Yes	-$557	09-21 07:42
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	5	$1.2K	1,000	400	+600	No	+$142	10-07 21:27
fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 team to advance	5	$1.2K	600	600	+0	Portugal	+$30	07-03 01:06
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	11	$1.1K	700	700	+0	Yes	+$32	10-20 17:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	18	$1.1K	1,100	1,100	+0	No	+$0	06-22 14:41
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	4	$989	600	600	+0	No	-$169	07-26 08:47
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	2	$870	500	500	+0	open	—	09-26 00:38
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5	2	$777	420	420	+0	Over	+$63	05-23 03:06
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	2	$774	400	400	+0	Yes	+$16	10-23 10:55
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury	4	$695	370	370	+0	Los Angeles Sparks	+$44	05-22 04:18
Thunder vs. Lakers	4	$684	520	520	+0	Thunder	+$3	05-10 02:44
fifwc jor alg 2026 06 22 corners total 10pt5	3	$650	500	500	+0	Over	-$175	06-23 04:46
Will a team from LCS (North America) win MSI 2026?	7	$641	347	347	+0	No	+$39	07-11 12:00
us iran hormuz agreement by august 15 20260804222025506 211	19	$635	840	840	+0	No	+$493	08-15 15:12
us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917	5	$634	392	392	+0	open	—	10-30 04:57
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	4	$622	500	500	+0	open	—	10-05 09:46
fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 team to advance	2	$594	616	186	+430	Canada	+$112	06-28 11:10
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	2	$576	300	300	+0	San Francisco Giants	+$24	05-13 05:12
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026?	2	$570	300	300	+0	Yes	+$30	07-12 11:49
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	7	$551	730	730	+0	Yes	-$376	08-08 09:49
Timberwolves vs. Spurs	4	$531	333	333	+0	Timberwolves	+$1	05-05 04:14
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks	2	$504	373	373	+0	Arizona Diamondbacks	+$108	05-20 03:46
fifwc cvi ksa 2026 06 26 corners total 8pt5	3	$461	530	0	+530	Under	+$69	06-27 01:38
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?	1	$460	474	0	+474	Yes	+$14	07-01 03:41
LoL: T1 Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 1 Winner	3	$437	290	290	+0	T1 Academy	+$32	05-04 09:37
fifwc cdr uzb 2026 06 27 corners total 8pt5	1	$410	500	0	+500	Under	+$90	06-28 01:04
fifwc eng gha 2026 06 23 corners total 6pt5	2	$399	498	0	+498	Over	+$100	06-23 11:20
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	2	$392	300	300	+0	No	+$206	08-16 03:14
fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 team to advance	1	$382	400	0	+400	Argentina	+$18	07-04 00:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 20:49:19	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Yes	SELL	146	96¢	$140	0x84f72b…
11-02 20:07:21	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Yes	SELL	45	96¢	$43	0xffb7b0…
11-02 20:07:15	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Yes	SELL	9	96¢	$9	0x5171e4…
11-02 10:41:21	Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30?	No	SELL	200	86¢	$172	0x7f2375…
11-02 04:41:55	Houthis capture Taiz city by October 31?	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x202749…
10-31 05:32:21	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Yes	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0xb11ac7…
10-30 04:57:15	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	200	90¢	$179	0xba066d…
10-29 17:46:04	Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?	No	SELL	3	83¢	$3	0x1461ed…
10-28 03:32:54	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	185	33¢	$61	0x41f609…
10-28 03:09:12	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	33¢	$5	0x858bc5…
10-27 23:42:08	Houthis capture Taiz city by October 31?	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0xfef7ee…
10-27 02:21:11	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	34¢	$68	0x7feaa9…
10-27 00:48:26	Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?	No	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0x7a4ae0…
10-26 20:42:48	Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30?	No	BUY	200	68¢	$136	0x1e980e…
10-26 20:28:08	Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?	No	BUY	50	54¢	$27	0xc1d484…
10-26 20:28:08	Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?	No	BUY	1	54¢	$1	0xb99adb…
10-26 20:28:08	Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?	No	BUY	49	54¢	$26	0x0f01ea…
10-26 03:58:45	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	200	83¢	$166	0x7b169e…
10-26 03:21:39	Will Katie Miller be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	SELL	35	1¢	$0	0x2e1e3d…
10-25 14:42:21	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	23	41¢	$9	0xa24485…
10-25 14:36:03	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	23	42¢	$10	0xde8492…
10-24 03:25:35	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	64¢	$128	0x7cba0d…
10-23 10:55:41	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	400	99¢	$395	0xec5170…
10-23 09:17:42	US imports Russian diesel by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	79¢	$2	0xcd0db8…
10-23 08:03:09	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	95¢	$379	0x6d29a0…
10-20 17:16:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0xde7af3…
10-20 17:06:47	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	699	84¢	$588	0x7fcece…
10-20 06:44:25	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	SELL	79	44¢	$35	0xce461e…
10-20 06:44:20	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	SELL	7	44¢	$3	0x5741a7…
10-20 06:44:16	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	SELL	179	44¢	$79	0x95fbdc…
10-19 20:25:15	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	192	79¢	$152	0xb752cc…
10-19 15:55:00	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x838c05…
10-19 15:54:42	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	19	68¢	$13	0xa22d8d…
10-19 15:54:32	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	75	68¢	$51	0xb03f7b…
10-19 15:54:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x2b386c…
10-19 15:53:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	400	80¢	$320	0x7d5262…
10-19 15:53:21	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0xbc3aaf…
10-19 15:53:02	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	9	83¢	$8	0xa76e12…
10-19 15:53:02	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	27	83¢	$23	0x1b9961…
10-19 15:52:30	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	74	83¢	$61	0x002778…
10-19 11:32:56	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	90	85¢	$77	0x1ceed3…
10-18 20:18:33	Will Katie Miller be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xe3985d…
10-18 13:14:53	Will Katie Miller be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	BUY	33	1¢	$0	0xc20363…
10-14 18:00:33	us x iran ceasefire continues through november 30 20260918	Yes	BUY	200	42¢	$84	0xae7e97…
10-14 17:08:31	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917	Yes	BUY	92	77¢	$71	0xd21a1b…
10-14 04:04:55	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	63¢	$126	0xfef3a3…
10-12 21:57:41	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	28	74¢	$21	0x9aeaa9…
10-12 21:57:41	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	66	74¢	$49	0x3ef1f4…
10-12 13:52:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	86¢	$172	0x731022…
10-10 06:35:54	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	BUY	57	39¢	$22	0x6d2871…
10-10 06:30:48	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	BUY	8	39¢	$3	0x9c0a23…
10-09 06:58:06	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	94	55¢	$52	0x7adf90…
10-07 21:27:27	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	600	86¢	$516	0x59b8a8…
10-05 09:46:28	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	500	62¢	$310	0x8e9722…
10-05 09:36:59	Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	74¢	$148	0x659e51…
10-05 09:29:01	Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	58¢	$116	0x658666…
10-05 09:24:07	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	58¢	$116	0x8cce68…
10-05 09:17:02	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	64¢	$64	0x1d154f…
10-05 09:10:59	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	66¢	$132	0xada520…
10-05 02:21:01	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	150	16¢	$24	0xfb8994…
10-04 20:39:37	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	120	25¢	$30	0x40cec1…
10-04 13:55:19	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	30	35¢	$10	0x1147a9…
10-04 11:20:43	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	150	63¢	$94	0x62ea89…
10-04 11:20:07	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 15 2026	No	SELL	220	91¢	$200	0xb20a82…
10-04 11:03:28	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 15 2026	No	SELL	180	91¢	$164	0x1014d3…
10-03 15:34:11	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	150	58¢	$87	0x7d1e2f…
10-03 14:40:09	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	200	72¢	$144	0xe40644…
10-03 14:40:09	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0x6deefa…
09-26 00:38:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	SELL	500	90¢	$450	0x37c04d…
09-25 18:10:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	BUY	500	84¢	$420	0xd5d8f5…
09-25 03:49:23	will bitcoin reach 85k in september 2026 from september 23	No	SELL	500	19¢	$95	0x09ff78…
09-24 14:32:47	will bitcoin reach 85k in september 2026 from september 23	No	BUY	500	8¢	$40	0xb25e9b…
09-24 11:22:05	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	56	35¢	$20	0xd43d03…
09-24 11:22:02	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	24	35¢	$8	0x629181…
09-21 11:19:08	Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	SELL	26	0¢	$0	0xde759f…
09-21 11:01:47	Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	SELL	160	0¢	$0	0x9bf62e…
09-21 10:53:12	Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xaf6532…
09-21 10:53:11	Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0x6178ba…
09-21 10:52:48	Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xc8244f…
09-21 10:52:33	Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x815b33…
09-21 10:52:33	Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x42874e…
09-21 10:50:30	Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x90f2b0…
09-21 10:50:30	Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x70a578…
09-21 10:50:11	Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	59	0¢	$0	0x6d2d99…
09-21 10:50:11	Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x12f733…
09-21 07:42:29	Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	SELL	904	28¢	$255	0x9e95b6…
09-21 07:02:02	Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	SELL	413	66¢	$272	0xf69c9e…
09-21 06:53:54	Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	SELL	23	66¢	$15	0x2385e3…
09-21 06:26:09	Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0xe323fb…
09-21 06:26:09	Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	31	1¢	$0	0x08e9f3…
09-21 05:40:19	Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	40	60¢	$24	0x6e48f0…
09-21 05:35:21	Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	342	66¢	$225	0x0b0f3d…
09-21 05:35:21	Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	748	66¢	$494	0x042886…
09-21 05:35:18	Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	40	66¢	$26	0xdaead6…
09-21 05:35:15	Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	40	66¢	$26	0x1b1ef7…
09-21 05:35:10	Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	40	66¢	$26	0xd38e57…
09-21 05:35:07	Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	40	66¢	$26	0x15af82…
09-21 05:35:03	Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	40	66¢	$26	0x8bd7fe…
09-21 05:34:57	Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0x8bb02e…
09-21 05:23:33	Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	No	SELL	500	28¢	$140	0x4b5f72…