Exalted-Tadpole — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$82

Unrealized P&L

+$171

Hit rate

84.5%

Resolved

281

Trades

360

lifetime

Volume

$26.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$74

Open exposure

$500

1 position

First seen

2026-03-24

last 09-07 12:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 36 days

Categories

Other

47% 91% -$134

Crypto

35% 97% +$68

Politics

17% 71% -$65

Sports

1% 100% +$50

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes		+1,100	$330	46¢	$500	+$171	09-07 12:53

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	2	$757	400	400	+0	No	-$3	04-23 19:47
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$685	500	500	+0	No	-$5	05-06 11:10
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	2	$551	351	351	+0	Yes	+$151	04-23 06:31
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	2	$467	393	393	+0	Yes	+$231	04-18 10:38
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 100m?	14	$445	247	246	+0	Yes	-$1	04-26 20:37
donald trump of truth social posts april 14 april 21 200plus	6	$336	356	353	+3	No	+$23	04-21 16:07
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	4	$330	1,100	0	+1,100	open	—	09-07 12:53
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	2	$312	233	233	+0	Yes	+$112	04-18 10:38
donald trump of truth social posts april 14 april 21 180 199	4	$258	135	135	+0	Yes	+$12	04-21 16:08
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	5	$245	383	383	+0	No	-$229	05-20 05:41
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	5	$243	310	310	+0	No	-$144	05-20 05:41
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-09?	2	$202	103	103	+0	No	+$2	06-09 17:37
wti closes above 90 on june 9 2026	2	$202	102	102	+0	No	+$2	06-09 20:56
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-09?	2	$202	102	102	+0	Yes	+$2	06-09 19:25
Will England win on 2026-06-09?	2	$202	102	102	+0	Yes	+$2	06-09 20:47
will bitcoin dip to 60k on june 9	2	$202	102	102	+0	No	+$2	06-10 03:41
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 9?	2	$201	101	101	+0	No	+$1	06-09 15:05
ethereum above 1700 on june 9 2026	2	$201	101	101	+0	No	+$1	06-09 15:01
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-09?	2	$201	101	101	+0	Yes	+$1	06-09 18:59
will ethereum dip to 1600 on june 8	2	$200	101	100	+0	No	+$0	06-09 06:28
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 9?	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	+$0	06-09 15:58
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	+$0	06-09 13:54
will bitcoin dip to 62k on june 8	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	+$0	06-09 06:28
will ethereum dip to 1500 on june 5	2	$200	201	0	+201	No	+$1	06-06 02:49
will ethereum dip to 1550 on june 9	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	+$0	06-10 03:32
will ethereum reach 1750 on june 7	2	$200	201	0	+201	No	+$1	06-08 02:25
Will Innio's market cap be between $17B and $20B at market close on IPO day?	4	$200	102	102	+0	No	$0	06-04 16:36
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 30?	2	$181	92	92	+0	Yes	+$1	05-31 14:17
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	2	$180	183	0	+183	No	+$3	05-31 10:00
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	2	$171	92	92	+0	No	-$9	06-02 14:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-07 12:53:15	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0xc24626…
09-07 12:53:07	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	0	30¢	$0	0x6ff64f…
09-07 12:52:55	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	750	30¢	$225	0x8710ba…
09-07 12:52:45	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	320	30¢	$96	0x539b50…
06-24 06:10:04	will antonio gracias be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212487	No	SELL	51	94¢	$48	0x2c9af1…
06-24 06:10:01	will jonathan hofeller be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212486	No	SELL	51	97¢	$50	0x11dc0b…
06-15 18:14:10	Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x773155…
06-15 14:00:16	Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 15?	No	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0xdb85b5…
06-15 10:01:07	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 15?	No	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0x83ccb2…
06-15 10:00:28	Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m?	No	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0x99a7bd…
06-15 10:00:27	Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m?	Yes	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0x13cc3f…
06-15 03:10:16	will solana reach 75 on june 14	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x7641fb…
06-14 10:06:15	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x2f142d…
06-14 10:04:58	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x278ba5…
06-14 05:36:39	Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye?	No	SELL	51	49¢	$25	0xe49039…
06-14 03:38:43	Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye?	No	BUY	51	97¢	$50	0x1b8882…
06-14 03:35:52	Exact Score: Australia 2 - 3 Türkiye?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x089304…
06-14 00:42:45	Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 0 Scotland?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xcd959e…
06-13 23:27:39	Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 3 Scotland?	No	BUY	51	97¢	$50	0xc96ef4…
06-13 21:39:00	Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Morocco?	No	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0x185f80…
06-13 18:30:57	Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland?	No	BUY	51	97¢	$50	0xa6092c…
06-13 18:07:49	fifwc qat che 2026 06 13 shots johan manzambi gte5	No	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0xf261c3…
06-13 14:00:19	Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 13?	Yes	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0x02d56a…
06-13 14:00:18	ethereum above 1700 on june 13 2026	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x946796…
06-13 03:24:52	will mark juncosa be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212484	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xcb3511…
06-13 02:51:52	Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xc556c7…
06-13 02:22:10	will the announcers say captain during the usa vs paraguay fifa world cup match 20260609202955335	Yes	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0x43040d…
06-13 02:00:36	Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 12, 2026?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x00c435…
06-13 02:00:33	Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 12?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xb02a8c…
06-13 01:59:09	will antonio gracias be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212487	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xdb2feb…
06-12 20:31:49	Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	No	SELL	51	87¢	$45	0xad341b…
06-12 18:30:55	fifwc can bih 2026 06 12 goals ermedin demirovic gte2	No	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0x32c8cb…
06-12 18:20:21	Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xe4e16c…
06-12 18:11:06	googl above 355 on june 12 2026	Yes	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0x43a133…
06-12 18:09:07	Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	No	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0xc3d02c…
06-12 18:05:03	Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	No	BUY	51	97¢	$50	0xb099a9…
06-12 15:19:16	Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 12?	No	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0x11e923…
06-12 15:09:51	Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 12?	Yes	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0x6d6581…
06-12 15:05:52	Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 12?	No	SELL	51	86¢	$44	0x3c995d…
06-12 15:04:52	Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	No	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0xd83388…
06-12 14:57:07	Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 12?	Yes	SELL	51	88¢	$44	0x3e9d18…
06-12 14:55:06	ethereum above 1700 on june 12 2026	No	SELL	51	87¢	$44	0x5a6eb2…
06-12 14:09:19	Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 12?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xe1aac0…
06-12 14:00:12	Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 12?	Yes	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0x2264c8…
06-12 14:00:10	bitcoin above 62k on june 12 2026	Yes	BUY	51	97¢	$50	0x530ecb…
06-12 14:00:09	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 12?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x2e57c6…
06-12 14:00:09	ethereum above 1700 on june 12 2026	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x1c1da7…
06-12 11:40:13	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x48b4d2…
06-12 10:05:52	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xe86346…
06-12 03:42:33	Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 1 Czechia?	No	SELL	51	85¢	$44	0x54e0bd…
06-12 03:18:22	will bitcoin reach 64k on june 11	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xda57c0…
06-12 03:07:45	will ethereum reach 1700 on june 11	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x8bf489…
06-12 03:07:12	will ethereum reach 1700 on june 11	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x32f81d…
06-12 00:00:28	Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 1 Czechia?	No	BUY	51	97¢	$50	0x94ab90…
06-12 00:00:28	Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 3 Czechia?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x3d5261…
06-12 00:00:25	Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 0 Czechia?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xb1a32e…
06-12 00:00:25	Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 2 Czechia?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x9aeba4…
06-11 18:20:24	spy closes above 720 on june 11 2026	Yes	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x9daa29…
06-11 18:10:58	Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 South Africa?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x6a077d…
06-11 18:10:21	Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 South Africa?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xd92ef9…
06-11 18:10:21	Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 South Africa?	No	BUY	51	97¢	$50	0x7f7a38…
06-11 14:43:51	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 11?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xaaeced…
06-11 14:05:58	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 11?	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x95ecb0…
06-11 14:00:52	bitcoin above 64k on june 11 2026	No	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0x119bd7…
06-11 14:00:51	Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 11?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x125f12…
06-11 11:50:01	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 11?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xf2702c…
06-11 11:48:49	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 11?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xabfe8a…
06-11 11:36:51	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 11?	No	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0xca9066…
06-11 04:05:49	Will PPI YoY be between 5.0% and 5.9% in May?	No	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0x178213…
06-11 03:47:55	will bitcoin reach 63k on june 10	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x3cc47e…
06-11 02:57:16	will ethereum dip to 1600 on june 10	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x910417…
06-11 02:00:10	will iran close its airspace by june 10 20260609184136048	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xdc8b14…
06-11 02:00:09	will bitcoin dip to 60k on june 10	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xb9c8bf…
06-11 02:00:09	will ethereum reach 1700 on june 10	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x5687cf…
06-11 00:28:24	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10 points devin vassell 2pt5	Yes	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x44e01d…
06-10 20:47:43	wti closes above 92 on june 10 2026	No	SELL	50	89¢	$45	0x40cf1a…
06-10 20:26:01	wti closes above 87 on june 10 2026	Yes	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xf927db…
06-10 20:14:06	wti closes above 92 on june 10 2026	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xce552a…
06-10 20:06:03	wti closes above 89 on june 10 2026	Yes	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0xff089b…
06-10 19:41:42	spy closes above 735 on june 10 2026	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x48f898…
06-10 19:07:45	spy closes above 740 on june 10 2026	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xa71f65…
06-10 18:21:42	Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Costa Rica?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x88b5a0…
06-10 18:10:06	spy closes above 745 on june 10 2026	No	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0xab0e27…
06-10 15:27:43	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x279273…
06-10 15:26:21	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0xa7bde8…
06-10 14:27:43	Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 10?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x13c84b…
06-10 14:15:21	Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 10?	Yes	BUY	52	97¢	$50	0xd06899…
06-10 14:14:33	ethereum above 1700 on june 10 2026	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x6fd5c4…
06-10 14:04:00	Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 10?	No	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0x54339b…
06-10 14:00:24	ethereum above 1600 on june 10 2026	Yes	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x61de7c…
06-10 07:42:42	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in May?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xd330ca…
06-10 03:41:10	will bitcoin dip to 60k on june 9	No	SELL	102	100¢	$102	0x2e022f…
06-10 03:32:24	will ethereum dip to 1550 on june 9	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x83e7af…
06-10 02:45:39	will ethereum dip to 1550 on june 9	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xc25334…
06-10 02:33:28	will bitcoin dip to 60k on june 9	No	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x46e2a2…
06-09 20:56:49	wti closes above 90 on june 9 2026	No	SELL	102	100¢	$102	0x10e349…
06-09 20:47:46	Will England win on 2026-06-09?	Yes	SELL	102	100¢	$102	0x712cf9…
06-09 19:28:46	wti closes above 90 on june 9 2026	No	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x342273…
06-09 19:25:13	Will Scotland win on 2026-06-09?	Yes	SELL	102	100¢	$102	0x84ae17…
06-09 19:00:28	wti closes above 86 on june 9 2026	Yes	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xacd223…