Watchful-Sausage — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$8

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

17.9%

Resolved

Trades

918

lifetime

Volume

$1.19K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-26

last 05-08 17:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

84% 13% $-8

Politics

12% — —

Other

3% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

16 active days in 12wk • peak 161 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	2	$145	330	0	+330	open	—	02-06 13:35
btc updown 15m 1772774100	5	$38	25	18	+7	open	—	03-06 05:27
btc updown 15m 1772812800	5	$28	24	9	+15	open	—	03-06 16:14
us strike on somalia by february 7	1	$20	200	0	+200	open	—	02-03 03:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	20	$15	72	72	+0	open	—	04-27 13:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	14	$13	44	44	+0	open	—	04-27 11:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	9	$13	22	22	+0	open	—	04-27 16:12
btc updown 15m 1775151000	43	$12	3,000	3,000	+0	open	—	04-02 17:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	6	$12	16	16	+0	open	—	04-27 03:26
btc updown 15m 1772776800	2	$11	7	7	+0	open	—	03-06 06:11
btc updown 15m 1772803800	2	$11	19	0	+19	open	—	03-06 13:44
btc updown 15m 1772704800	2	$11	7	7	+0	open	—	03-05 10:09
btc updown 15m 1772801100	2	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	03-06 12:55
btc updown 15m 1772807400	2	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	03-06 14:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	13	$11	28	28	+0	open	—	04-27 05:43
btc updown 15m 1776929400	13	$11	80	57	+24	open	—	04-23 07:43
btc updown 15m 1772810100	2	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	03-06 15:22
btc updown 15m 1772797500	2	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	03-06 11:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	7	$11	18	16	+2	open	—	04-27 02:42
btc updown 15m 1772775900	2	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	03-06 05:57
btc updown 15m 1772773200	2	$10	6	6	+0	open	—	03-06 05:11
btc updown 15m 1772706600	2	$10	6	6	+0	open	—	03-05 10:43
btc updown 15m 1772804700	2	$10	6	6	+0	open	—	03-06 13:55
eth updown 15m 1771274700	1	$10	3,222	0	+3,222	open	—	02-16 20:59
btc updown 15m 1772775000	2	$10	15	0	+15	open	—	03-06 05:40
Will the US strike Somalia next?	1	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	02-04 07:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	6	$8	17	17	+0	open	—	04-27 07:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	5	$8	11	11	+0	open	—	04-27 10:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	4	$8	11	11	+0	open	—	04-27 08:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	5	$8	11	11	+0	open	—	04-26 16:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-08 17:36:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xfc285b…
05-08 12:39:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x11ac16…
05-08 11:26:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x612318…
05-08 07:37:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Down	SELL	55	1¢	$1	0x1d82b1…
05-08 07:37:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x1247d5…
05-08 07:37:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	12	2¢	$0	0x735fc3…
05-08 07:36:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x629d78…
05-08 07:36:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x404d03…
05-08 07:36:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x160665…
05-08 07:36:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	27	2¢	$1	0xe56311…
05-08 07:09:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Up	SELL	81	1¢	$1	0x333646…
05-08 07:08:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	98	1¢	$1	0xd95889…
05-08 06:28:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Up	SELL	6	20¢	$1	0xa12558…
05-08 06:28:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	0	19¢	$0	0xc4ba8b…
05-08 06:28:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x801023…
05-08 05:41:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	SELL	33	1¢	$0	0xae160a…
05-08 05:41:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	3¢	$0	0xee2bb2…
05-08 05:41:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	16	3¢	$0	0x9f364f…
05-08 05:41:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0x4281ff…
05-08 05:40:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0xceff66…
05-08 05:40:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x40eeea…
05-07 09:11:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	0	7¢	$0	0x103558…
05-07 09:11:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x8964c4…
05-07 07:42:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Down	SELL	6	7¢	$0	0xa8b52c…
05-07 07:42:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0xbf90de…
05-07 06:10:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	SELL	33	2¢	$1	0x823550…
05-07 06:09:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x52d2e3…
05-07 05:53:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	SELL	4	9¢	$0	0x231c5a…
05-07 05:52:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	17¢	$0	0x11c92c…
05-07 05:52:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	17¢	$0	0xdcc9fe…
05-07 03:28:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	SELL	25	3¢	$1	0x4f7934…
05-07 03:28:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xba9a55…
05-07 01:40:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	SELL	1	11¢	$0	0x289529…
05-07 01:40:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0xf77be9…
05-06 11:42:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0xb7a39b…
05-06 11:42:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xdea34e…
05-06 10:27:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Down	SELL	3	1¢	$0	0x61326e…
05-06 10:26:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0x625a7c…
05-06 09:38:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	SELL	12	5¢	$1	0x1a5059…
05-06 09:37:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xd2be99…
05-06 08:23:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x46d36a…
05-06 06:12:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	SELL	12	5¢	$1	0x2fe111…
05-06 06:11:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	4	8¢	$0	0x60f9fd…
05-06 06:11:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	8	8¢	$1	0x235ffd…
05-06 05:38:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	SELL	3	3¢	$0	0x38beb0…
05-06 05:38:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	7¢	$0	0xcb1ada…
05-06 03:07:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	SELL	6	14¢	$1	0xd027db…
05-06 03:07:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x046ef8…
05-05 18:43:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Down	SELL	4	3¢	$0	0xc2a3f7…
05-05 18:40:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Down	SELL	1	64¢	$1	0xcc7eca…
05-05 18:36:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x7b79b5…
05-05 17:26:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	SELL	2	7¢	$0	0xcf17c9…
05-05 17:23:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	17¢	$0	0x0018a1…
05-05 16:37:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	SELL	12	4¢	$0	0x4e9b6a…
05-05 16:35:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	8	8¢	$1	0xc65288…
05-05 16:35:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x0710b6…
04-27 16:26:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x3fdb2b…
04-27 16:26:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Up	SELL	6	34¢	$2	0x8068ca…
04-27 16:26:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0xc7cdbe…
04-27 16:12:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Up	SELL	6	23¢	$1	0x6eaf47…
04-27 16:12:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	37¢	$2	0x9fa655…
04-27 16:11:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Up	SELL	6	28¢	$2	0xcf3131…
04-27 16:11:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	0	19¢	$0	0xef6b28…
04-27 16:11:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x6b4339…
04-27 16:09:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Up	SELL	6	23¢	$1	0x39c3f4…
04-27 16:09:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x0075ba…
04-27 16:06:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	SELL	6	41¢	$2	0x9e3aec…
04-27 16:06:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	39¢	$2	0xe98593…
04-27 15:54:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	SELL	27	4¢	$1	0xd22a28…
04-27 15:54:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xa7ae7d…
04-27 15:54:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x7144fe…
04-27 15:53:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	3¢	$0	0x187c34…
04-27 15:22:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	SELL	105	1¢	$1	0xa217b8…
04-27 15:22:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0xb98a9d…
04-27 15:22:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	16	1¢	$0	0x9310b4…
04-27 15:22:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xebb814…
04-27 15:22:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	74	1¢	$1	0x1a6212…
04-27 15:08:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Up	SELL	25	3¢	$1	0x5e921f…
04-27 15:08:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	19	4¢	$1	0x7c9b29…
04-27 15:08:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x4c25bf…
04-27 15:08:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x7b2e69…
04-27 13:54:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x167360…
04-27 13:54:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	8¢	$0	0xe5d2d7…
04-27 13:53:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0xd84b97…
04-27 13:53:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Up	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0xf8a53f…
04-27 13:53:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Up	SELL	11	9¢	$1	0xa49ae0…
04-27 13:53:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0x307bc6…
04-27 13:53:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0x0a132d…
04-27 13:43:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	SELL	13	2¢	$0	0xca627f…
04-27 13:41:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	SELL	6	2¢	$0	0xae9a46…
04-27 13:41:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	SELL	6	2¢	$0	0x02b8a0…
04-27 13:41:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	0	3¢	$0	0xc13679…
04-27 13:41:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	24	3¢	$1	0x883263…
04-27 13:41:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	SELL	6	3¢	$0	0x8f3d3c…
04-27 13:40:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0x4147e0…
04-27 13:39:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	SELL	14	7¢	$1	0x2099a2…
04-27 13:39:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x8d5756…
04-27 13:39:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	SELL	11	7¢	$1	0xb68ea7…
04-27 13:39:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x84b874…
04-27 13:39:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	SELL	6	8¢	$0	0xd9eb0c…