Costly-Papaya — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$10

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

69.6%

Resolved

444

Trades

860

lifetime

Volume

$11.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-08

last 10-19 16:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 126 days

Categories

Other

73% 79% -$11

Crypto

20% 79% +$1

Politics

5% 60% $0

Sports

1% 50% +$0

Tech

1% 75% +$0

Pop-Culture

0% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

45 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or higher on July 28?	4	$90	45	45	+0	No	$0	07-27 12:03
Will xAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026?	4	$81	41	41	+0	No	+$0	07-31 03:15
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on July 24?	3	$74	40	34	+6	No	+$0	07-24 14:42
us obtains iranian enriched uranium by july 31 20260610164403871 511	2	$70	35	35	+0	No	$0	07-30 18:23
will lee cronins the mummy opening weekend box office be between 15m and 20m	4	$68	34	34	+0	No	$0	04-20 08:11
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 23?	2	$68	34	34	+0	No	+$0	07-23 10:53
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on July 22?	4	$68	34	34	+0	No	$0	07-21 19:25
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on July 12?	2	$67	34	34	+0	No	$0	07-11 06:59
xrp above 1pt3 on july 26 2026	2	$67	34	34	+0	No	$0	07-26 04:26
will wti reach 115 by july 20 2026	2	$66	33	33	+0	No	+$0	07-24 21:02
will nvda reach 224 by june 22 2026	4	$65	32	32	+0	No	$0	06-26 16:52
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C or higher on July 19?	2	$64	32	32	+0	No	$0	07-19 00:52
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C or below on June 27?	3	$64	32	32	+0	No	$0	06-26 16:59
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on July 29?	5	$64	32	32	+0	No	+$0	07-28 22:54
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on July 26?	3	$63	32	32	+0	No	$0	07-25 18:16
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on October 13?	2	$61	31	31	+0	No	+$0	10-13 01:19
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 22?	2	$61	31	31	+0	No	$0	07-21 12:09
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on July 21?	4	$61	30	30	+0	No	$0	07-20 14:10
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 7°C on July 26?	2	$60	30	30	+0	No	+$0	07-25 05:37
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C or below on August 6?	2	$60	60	0	+60	No	+$0	08-05 21:18
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C or below on July 10?	2	$60	30	30	+0	No	+$0	07-10 15:15
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 96-97°F on July 20?	3	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	07-19 08:25
Will VOX (VOX) win the Andalusia regional election?	5	$57	29	29	+0	No	+$0	05-17 08:03
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C or below on July 26?	3	$57	28	28	+0	No	+$0	07-25 19:59
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 23?	4	$55	27	27	+0	No	$0	07-23 10:54
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on July 30?	2	$54	27	27	+0	No	+$0	07-30 03:22
ethereum above 2100 on july 21 2026	2	$54	27	27	+0	No	$0	07-20 23:53
bitcoin above 70k on july 23 2026	2	$54	27	27	+0	No	$0	07-22 22:05
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	3	$53	27	27	+0	No	+$0	07-30 18:18
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 85°F or below on July 21?	2	$52	26	26	+0	No	+$0	07-21 11:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-19 16:30:44	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on October 20?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x9c15d9…
10-18 21:13:02	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xdd9310…
10-16 11:34:58	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 16?	Yes	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x53e543…
10-13 01:19:47	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on October 13?	No	SELL	31	100¢	$30	0x5acd60…
10-12 23:36:21	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on October 13?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$30	0x343a3c…
10-12 20:55:15	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on October 12?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x418410…
10-12 09:14:50	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on October 12?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xb9b8f9…
10-12 09:14:50	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on October 12?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x817bc1…
10-12 05:42:47	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C or higher on October 12?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0x78dd32…
10-12 02:55:12	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on October 12?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xcf1253…
10-11 23:56:35	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on October 12?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x46e450…
10-11 23:38:54	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C or higher on October 12?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xda6b4d…
10-10 08:34:48	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on October 10?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xd68272…
10-07 20:32:35	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on October 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb9ac9c…
10-05 11:22:20	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 88-89°F on October 5?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x1a392b…
10-02 02:33:56	Will the price of Solana be above $140 on October 2?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x2eac37…
10-01 21:51:38	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on October 2?	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x46f141…
10-01 05:46:36	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on October 1?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc1c7d4…
09-28 02:46:48	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xa26ae8…
09-27 18:29:09	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on September 28?	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0xe7b40d…
09-23 03:19:22	Will the South African Reserve Bank decrease the repo rate after the September meeting?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x705bba…
09-23 03:02:58	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 23?	Yes	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0xa1d57d…
09-22 16:19:39	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on September 23?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x723d52…
09-22 12:35:45	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x9a0373…
09-22 12:12:15	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on September 23?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xac7ac6…
09-21 22:03:12	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on September 22?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$22	0x97db80…
09-18 18:44:16	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on September 19?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xb1c4f7…
09-17 23:36:28	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 18?	Yes	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xdc224a…
09-17 16:11:13	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on September 18?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x66a3f4…
09-13 03:57:24	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C or higher on September 13?	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0xb3e89b…
09-11 18:19:04	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 27°C or below on September 11?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xb2a6b7…
09-11 02:51:09	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on September 11?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x4d26c2…
09-10 20:04:25	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 27°C or below on September 11?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x409b6a…
09-07 13:57:55	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on September 8?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x640dcc…
09-06 20:56:27	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 August 31-September 6?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x798e29…
09-06 09:14:27	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0xf55fcc…
09-05 23:28:24	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on September 6?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x5eeab6…
09-05 06:29:31	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on September 5?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x022206…
09-04 23:41:28	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on September 5?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x464bd9…
09-04 23:31:33	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 78°F or higher on September 5?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x35106a…
09-04 16:57:15	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on September 5?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x120424…
09-04 12:42:42	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on September 5?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2fce04…
09-03 23:49:39	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xf65b08…
09-03 13:00:12	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 4?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xe38407…
09-03 12:50:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 4?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$7	0xbe9e79…
09-03 10:28:06	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C or below on September 4?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x769d2f…
09-02 18:53:06	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on September 3?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x1113a0…
09-02 09:55:37	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on September 2?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x70f880…
09-02 08:31:16	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on September 2?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x899a16…
09-01 19:31:39	Will Marcus Rashford join Napoli?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$26	0xa2e82e…
09-01 08:01:51	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on September 1?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x44d055…
09-01 04:58:42	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0xb5072e…
08-31 04:16:33	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x734e66…
08-30 22:35:45	will bitcoin reach 83k on august 30 2026	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xec800a…
08-30 19:47:49	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x33a1ac…
08-30 13:02:36	ethereum above 2600 on august 30 2026	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x05eeaf…
08-30 12:28:19	ethereum above 2300 on august 30 2026	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$22	0x21827e…
08-29 19:45:42	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on August 30?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x82f603…
08-29 09:58:06	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 29?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xda76de…
08-28 17:46:31	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on August 29?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x86853f…
08-28 17:29:54	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on August 29?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x2ee11e…
08-28 05:45:31	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 28?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x5fffef…
08-27 04:45:46	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on August 27?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x4d1567…
08-27 00:02:46	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on August 27?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$29	0x4a6768…
08-26 20:19:58	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 27?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x15fe87…
08-26 11:52:43	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on August 27?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x40b6a1…
08-25 13:48:16	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 25?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x37fd2b…
08-25 12:12:55	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on August 25?	Yes	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xe99712…
08-25 03:42:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on August 25?	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x0c9e90…
08-25 01:38:03	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 35°C on August 25?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x70a411…
08-24 17:56:15	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on August 25?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x4cc7fc…
08-24 12:54:13	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 24?	Yes	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x318ba0…
08-24 06:34:06	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 24?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x7be3a2…
08-23 20:09:28	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on August 24?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x8d11b7…
08-23 16:17:49	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x504223…
08-14 09:18:45	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on August 14?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$7	0x6f7f9c…
08-13 22:06:12	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C on August 14?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x1cbb6b…
08-13 14:39:34	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on August 14?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x35e716…
08-13 10:06:24	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on August 13?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x49dfb9…
08-12 23:24:33	Will voter turnout be at least 80% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x78355a…
08-12 22:15:55	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 13?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x197611…
08-12 21:04:49	will gpt 6 be released by august 14 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd8cf0a…
08-12 08:05:22	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 38°C on August 13?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x6ac73a…
08-12 01:14:00	Will annual inflation be 3.8% in July?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x35561c…
08-11 21:26:15	ethereum above 1700 on august 12 2026	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x8617a2…
08-11 11:52:45	ethereum above 1800 on august 11 2026	Yes	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xf7d019…
08-10 22:13:51	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 40°C on August 11?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xfb2ec0…
08-10 20:29:00	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on August 11?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xa8469f…
08-10 14:32:12	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on August 11?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xf8cfe7…
08-10 12:02:22	xrp above 1pt3 on august 11 2026	No	BUY	30	100¢	$29	0x391383…
08-09 14:03:37	will super troopers 3 score at least 70 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260805011231498	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x7f41e3…
08-09 06:50:06	will bitcoin dip to 60k august 3 9 2026	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xbbb9fb…
08-09 05:16:07	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or below on August 10?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x3ae6c5…
08-09 01:19:34	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 9?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$25	0xc8afa4…
08-08 19:32:37	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C or higher on August 9?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xd9473c…
08-08 05:05:22	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 8?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x214bff…
08-08 04:39:25	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 41°C or higher on August 8?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x637edf…
08-07 20:48:27	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on August 8?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xf52c13…
08-07 15:44:42	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C or higher on August 8?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xc7d0f5…
08-07 13:39:24	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 86-87°F on August 8?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x7dbba6…