Careless-Presume — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$311

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

81.8%

Resolved

978

Trades

21,777

lifetime

Volume

$15.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-03

last 08-15 10:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 70 days

Categories

Other

99% 94% +$461

Crypto

1% 0% -$150

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 58 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	868	$981	0	4,553	-4,553	No	+$981	05-22 05:33
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	819	$929	0	4,541	-4,541	No	+$929	05-21 16:02
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	721	$767	0	4,222	-4,222	No	+$767	05-21 13:58
elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 260 279	332	$745	0	5,666	-5,666	No	+$745	03-01 21:40
elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 280 299	385	$733	0	5,629	-5,629	No	+$733	03-01 18:24
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	809	$626	0	4,553	-4,553	Yes	-$3,928	05-22 05:33
elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 300 319	305	$600	0	4,635	-4,635	No	+$600	03-01 17:27
elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 240 259	663	$575	0	4,428	-4,428	No	+$575	03-01 19:59
elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 220 239	609	$523	0	4,708	-4,708	No	+$523	03-01 17:56
elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 320 339	405	$486	0	5,294	-5,294	No	+$486	03-01 18:11
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	619	$412	0	3,337	-3,337	No	+$412	05-20 21:03
elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 340 359	314	$370	0	5,744	-5,744	No	+$370	03-01 17:01
elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 200 219	520	$323	0	4,519	-4,519	Yes	-$4,197	03-01 17:12
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 26?	137	$300	0	827	-827	Yes	-$527	05-26 02:17
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 26?	126	$262	10	837	-827	No	+$257	05-26 02:21
elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 240 259	342	$259	906	881	+25	No	$0	02-17 12:59
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	609	$243	0	4,553	-4,553	No	+$243	05-22 05:33
elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 360 379	231	$211	0	3,953	-3,953	No	+$211	02-28 18:24
elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 260 279	230	$188	607	645	-38	No	+$8	02-17 11:57
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 28?	98	$185	95	551	-457	Yes	-$330	05-28 01:56
elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 220 239	309	$175	832	806	+26	No	-$4	02-17 11:55
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	330	$171	0	2,905	-2,905	No	+$171	05-20 13:52
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 13:00 UTC	1	$150	300	0	+300	Up	-$150	02-03 12:17
elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 280 299	106	$144	583	603	-20	No	+$5	02-17 12:06
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 29?	75	$144	69	424	-355	Yes	-$251	05-29 03:11
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 340 359	172	$136	0	976	-976	No	+$136	03-10 14:34
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on May 26?	120	$136	0	827	-827	No	+$136	05-26 03:51
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 320 339	184	$132	0	1,007	-1,007	No	+$132	03-10 14:52
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 300 319	112	$128	0	1,143	-1,143	No	+$128	03-10 14:48
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 320 339	55	$127	0	907	-907	No	+$127	02-06 00:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-15 10:21:24	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on August 15?	Yes	SELL	14	0¢	$0	0xd24c92…
08-15 08:46:21	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 15?	Yes	SELL	14	1¢	$0	0x04e062…
08-15 00:01:04	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C or below on August 15?	Yes	SELL	14	0¢	$0	0x0697e6…
08-14 18:50:25	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on August 14?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0x936101…
08-14 18:50:25	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on August 14?	Yes	SELL	3	0¢	$0	0x21440a…
08-14 18:50:24	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on August 14?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0x73a513…
08-14 17:29:01	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on August 15?	Yes	SELL	14	0¢	$0	0xed8cc7…
08-14 17:28:42	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on August 15?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x5f235c…
08-14 17:21:46	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on August 15?	Yes	SELL	14	0¢	$0	0xd9a946…
08-14 17:03:30	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on August 15?	Yes	SELL	14	0¢	$0	0xc4646d…
08-14 16:57:16	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on August 14?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0xcaa058…
08-14 16:57:01	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on August 14?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0x4175df…
08-14 15:33:16	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on August 14?	Yes	SELL	14	2¢	$0	0xeb1554…
08-14 15:20:10	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on August 15?	Yes	SELL	14	0¢	$0	0xf9a85f…
08-14 15:04:49	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on August 15?	Yes	SELL	14	1¢	$0	0x83bdb8…
08-14 14:41:24	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on August 15?	Yes	SELL	14	0¢	$0	0xbb9ee3…
08-14 13:35:13	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	4	9¢	$0	0x434428…
08-14 13:30:00	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0x18cb26…
08-14 12:08:58	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on August 14?	Yes	SELL	6	14¢	$1	0x0762ed…
08-14 12:08:48	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on August 14?	Yes	SELL	8	14¢	$1	0x920b4b…
08-14 11:35:42	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on August 14?	Yes	SELL	3	22¢	$1	0xc02c3a…
08-14 11:17:39	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on August 14?	Yes	SELL	11	22¢	$2	0xdd230a…
08-14 10:23:57	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on August 15?	Yes	SELL	9	4¢	$0	0x9773b0…
08-14 09:05:12	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on August 14?	Yes	SELL	14	0¢	$0	0xcec2ac…
08-14 09:05:07	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on August 14?	Yes	SELL	14	2¢	$0	0x336136…
08-14 08:57:04	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 15?	Yes	SELL	3	5¢	$0	0x215278…
08-14 08:28:22	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 14?	Yes	SELL	14	13¢	$2	0x698c9a…
08-14 08:13:31	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 33°C or higher on August 14?	Yes	SELL	14	0¢	$0	0x9c65bd…
08-14 08:12:57	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	14	0¢	$0	0x02ddad…
08-14 07:56:37	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 15?	Yes	SELL	11	9¢	$1	0xe4f0cd…
08-14 06:41:27	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on August 15?	Yes	SELL	14	1¢	$0	0xfeeea9…
08-14 06:40:45	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on August 15?	Yes	SELL	14	5¢	$1	0xe13c0d…
08-14 06:37:51	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on August 15?	Yes	SELL	14	2¢	$0	0x3ea296…
08-14 06:36:42	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on August 15?	Yes	SELL	14	14¢	$2	0xe46d3c…
08-14 06:30:51	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 15?	Yes	SELL	14	2¢	$0	0x2ccd14…
08-14 06:30:24	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 15?	Yes	SELL	14	9¢	$1	0x9f6750…
08-14 06:04:13	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 15?	Yes	SELL	7	14¢	$1	0x0574d7…
08-14 05:53:58	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C or below on August 15?	Yes	SELL	14	1¢	$0	0xfa7fbb…
08-14 05:53:04	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on August 15?	Yes	SELL	14	17¢	$2	0x321a29…
08-14 05:49:13	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 15?	Yes	SELL	7	14¢	$1	0x202491…
08-14 05:46:09	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on August 15?	Yes	SELL	14	2¢	$0	0xc19567…
08-14 05:44:04	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 15?	Yes	SELL	14	22¢	$3	0x003e87…
08-14 05:24:36	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on August 15?	Yes	SELL	14	4¢	$1	0x7b121c…
08-14 05:16:16	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on August 15?	Yes	SELL	14	9¢	$1	0x80db4d…
08-14 03:43:16	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x275dc2…
08-14 03:40:39	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0xf03d0f…
08-14 03:40:37	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	8	1¢	$0	0xf50ab1…
08-14 03:40:37	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x5360bc…
08-14 03:05:30	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on August 14?	Yes	SELL	3	0¢	$0	0x4f4e7f…
08-14 03:05:30	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on August 14?	Yes	SELL	3	0¢	$0	0x23f690…
08-14 03:05:10	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on August 14?	Yes	SELL	8	0¢	$0	0x350cb6…
08-14 02:36:18	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on August 14?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0xf4d22c…
08-14 01:24:43	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on August 14?	Yes	SELL	4	3¢	$0	0xcf21e1…
08-14 01:22:52	Will the highest temperature in Denver be 88°F or higher on August 14?	Yes	SELL	14	8¢	$1	0xffb310…
08-14 01:19:45	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on August 14?	Yes	SELL	14	18¢	$3	0x5b00b1…
08-14 01:17:37	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on August 14?	Yes	SELL	14	2¢	$0	0x519c71…
08-14 01:17:37	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on August 14?	Yes	SELL	14	9¢	$1	0x3c2589…
08-14 01:17:37	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on August 14?	Yes	SELL	10	6¢	$1	0x30999d…
08-14 01:15:10	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on August 14?	Yes	SELL	14	7¢	$1	0x79409c…
08-13 23:21:31	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	8	0¢	$0	0x3827ad…
08-13 22:07:24	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	10	22¢	$2	0x3a1b97…
08-13 22:06:36	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	14	0¢	$0	0x088ed6…
08-13 21:17:21	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	14	10¢	$1	0x0e7c3b…
08-13 21:12:22	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	13	0¢	$0	0xfecef8…
08-13 21:05:40	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on August 13?	Yes	SELL	14	24¢	$3	0x715752…
08-13 21:02:19	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	4	23¢	$1	0x3ccb17…
08-13 15:23:27	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x038be5…
08-13 15:00:49	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	7	20¢	$1	0x099b13…
08-13 15:00:12	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	7	20¢	$1	0xa4c791…
08-13 14:59:36	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C or below on August 14?	Yes	SELL	14	0¢	$0	0xc5f12c…
08-13 12:48:36	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	14	1¢	$0	0xc0bf11…
08-13 12:04:10	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on August 13?	Yes	SELL	14	22¢	$3	0x971dc4…
08-13 11:21:48	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 13?	Yes	SELL	9	5¢	$0	0xf41d08…
08-13 11:15:09	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 13?	Yes	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0xfab816…
08-13 11:09:10	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	14	1¢	$0	0x2d50ab…
08-13 10:22:57	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on August 13?	Yes	SELL	6	4¢	$0	0x92438a…
08-13 08:25:42	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	14	0¢	$0	0x36ffe8…
08-13 08:23:46	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x1531f0…
08-13 08:21:18	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	3	9¢	$0	0xc0b238…
08-13 08:18:25	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on August 13?	Yes	SELL	8	4¢	$0	0x7a4c6c…
08-13 08:17:43	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 43°C on August 13?	Yes	SELL	14	0¢	$0	0x596f39…
08-13 08:15:49	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C or below on August 13?	Yes	SELL	14	0¢	$0	0xcfbf33…
08-13 08:05:36	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 13?	Yes	SELL	14	15¢	$2	0x245b58…
08-13 07:52:57	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	11	9¢	$1	0xa74105…
08-13 07:51:13	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on August 13?	Yes	SELL	14	1¢	$0	0xf57758…
08-13 07:47:25	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	14	3¢	$0	0xcc1e08…
08-13 07:36:54	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on August 13?	Yes	SELL	14	3¢	$0	0xebaf1e…
08-13 07:36:54	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 106-107°F on August 13?	Yes	SELL	14	1¢	$0	0x662927…
08-13 07:22:30	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	14	4¢	$1	0xc8eb82…
08-13 07:02:21	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	14	1¢	$0	0x30ffe8…
08-13 07:02:07	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	14	3¢	$0	0x54afb3…
08-13 07:01:42	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	14	4¢	$1	0x6bce2d…
08-13 06:32:43	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	14	1¢	$0	0x6c29cf…
08-13 06:32:10	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	14	2¢	$0	0x6e5d18…
08-13 06:31:51	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	14	5¢	$1	0x999fdf…
08-13 06:19:09	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	14	8¢	$1	0x945468…
08-13 06:14:19	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	14	8¢	$1	0x50251b…
08-13 06:11:37	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C or below on August 14?	Yes	SELL	14	0¢	$0	0xba2a26…
08-13 05:31:24	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	14	6¢	$1	0x56a642…
08-13 05:26:45	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	14	2¢	$0	0x69ec1b…