Noisy-Calculus — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$99

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

57.4%

Resolved

174

Trades

362

lifetime

Volume

$1.44K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-25

last 09-05 02:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 23 days

Categories

Crypto

90% 54% -$97

Other

9% 0% -$3

Sports

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Kolkata Knight Riders	7	$116	116	114	+2	Kolkata Knight Riders	-$3	04-26 17:59
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	2	$55	60	0	+60	Down	-$3	04-27 01:14
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	2	$54	55	54	+0	Down	-$46	04-27 02:34
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	2	$38	29	29	+1	Up	-$2	04-27 02:43
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	1	$30	31	0	+31	Up	+$1	04-25 19:59
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	1	$30	35	0	+35	Down	+$5	04-27 02:24
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-13 18:15 UTC	8	$24	20	20	+0	Up	+$1	07-13 18:28
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-17 00:15 UTC	4	$21	15	15	+0	Down	+$1	06-17 00:25
XRP Up or Down - April 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	1	$21	23	0	+23	Up	+$2	04-25 19:49
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	1	$21	22	0	+22	Up	+$1	04-25 20:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	2	$21	15	15	+0	Down	+$1	06-13 23:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	4	$21	17	17	+0	Up	+$1	05-28 06:11
Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays	3	$20	17	17	+0	Tampa Bay Rays	+$0	04-25 20:57
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	2	$20	10	10	+0	Down	+$0	05-26 06:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 01:35 UTC	7	$20	32	32	+0	Down	-$4	08-09 01:39
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	2	$17	18	0	+18	Down	+$1	05-28 05:24
XRP Up or Down - April 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	1	$16	17	0	+17	Up	+$1	04-25 19:53
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	1	$15	18	0	+18	Up	+$3	04-27 02:16
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	1	$15	15	0	+15	Down	+$0	05-28 05:29
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-11 04:45 UTC	3	$14	10	10	+0	Up	+$3	06-11 04:53
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-20 00:30 UTC	3	$14	14	7	+7	Down	-$6	07-20 00:40
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-13 20:15 UTC	4	$14	10	10	+0	Down	+$2	07-13 20:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	1	$12	270	0	+270	Up	-$12	04-27 02:30
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	4	$12	14	0	+14	Down	-$12	05-27 03:34
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-11 15:30 UTC	3	$12	10	10	+0	Down	-$3	06-11 15:43
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 15:35 UTC	2	$11	8	8	+0	Up	+$1	08-14 15:36
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 03:00 UTC	2	$11	8	8	+0	Down	+$2	08-09 03:01
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 03:05 UTC	2	$11	9	9	+0	Down	+$1	08-17 03:07
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	1	$11	12	0	+12	Down	+$1	05-28 04:48
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	1	$11	11	0	+11	Down	+$0	04-27 01:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-05 02:22:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0x1a54ea…
09-05 02:14:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	SELL	8	50¢	$4	0x90ad40…
09-05 02:14:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0x9b084c…
09-05 02:13:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0x46775d…
09-05 02:11:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	82¢	$3	0x82a6dd…
09-04 01:01:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	SELL	10	34¢	$3	0x75ec51…
09-04 00:59:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x30e5cd…
08-17 03:29:00	xauusd up or down on august 17 2026	Up	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0x9595bd…
08-17 03:28:43	xauusd up or down on august 17 2026	Up	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xfb0242…
08-17 03:07:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 03:05 UTC	Down	SELL	9	64¢	$6	0xff8e32…
08-17 03:04:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 03:05 UTC	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x7f5746…
08-14 15:40:28	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 15:40 UTC	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x86fa25…
08-14 15:40:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 15:40 UTC	Up	BUY	8	32¢	$3	0x3469ce…
08-14 15:36:40	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 15:35 UTC	Up	SELL	8	78¢	$6	0x4c9d05…
08-14 15:36:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 15:35 UTC	Down	SELL	8	18¢	$1	0x55e503…
08-14 15:36:15	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 15:35 UTC	Up	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x12e046…
08-14 15:36:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 15:35 UTC	Down	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x3cda64…
08-14 15:32:18	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 15:30 UTC	Down	SELL	8	56¢	$4	0xcdc8f6…
08-14 15:32:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 15:30 UTC	Up	SELL	8	44¢	$4	0x4c8d5e…
08-14 15:31:58	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 15:30 UTC	Down	BUY	8	47¢	$4	0xdfc0d6…
08-14 15:31:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 15:30 UTC	Up	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0x45aded…
08-14 15:25:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 15:25 UTC	Up	SELL	8	49¢	$4	0x7e4d95…
08-14 15:25:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 15:25 UTC	Up	BUY	8	43¢	$3	0x37e845…
08-14 15:21:12	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 15:20 UTC	Down	SELL	8	8¢	$1	0x89933f…
08-14 15:21:07	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 15:20 UTC	Down	BUY	8	11¢	$1	0x8da3ce…
08-14 15:20:39	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 15:20 UTC	Down	SELL	8	15¢	$1	0x000206…
08-14 15:20:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 15:20 UTC	Up	BUY	8	70¢	$6	0x967653…
08-14 15:20:34	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 15:20 UTC	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x48c2bd…
08-14 15:19:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 15:15 UTC	Up	SELL	8	89¢	$7	0x94b42d…
08-14 15:19:18	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 15:15 UTC	Down	SELL	8	5¢	$0	0x0b8432…
08-14 15:15:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 15:15 UTC	Up	BUY	8	45¢	$4	0xdaddcc…
08-14 15:15:45	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 15:15 UTC	Down	BUY	8	42¢	$3	0x5397cc…
08-10 03:00:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 03:00 UTC	Up	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0x8317a8…
08-10 02:55:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 02:55 UTC	Up	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0x6a0ddc…
08-10 02:53:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 02:50 UTC	Down	SELL	3	74¢	$2	0xbbf22c…
08-10 02:50:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 02:50 UTC	Down	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0x8e7fb7…
08-10 02:45:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 02:45 UTC	Up	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0x2ba202…
08-10 02:40:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 02:40 UTC	Down	BUY	3	51¢	$2	0x97f9ce…
08-10 02:36:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 02:35 UTC	Up	SELL	3	75¢	$2	0x887808…
08-10 02:35:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 02:35 UTC	Up	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0xb64906…
08-10 02:30:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 02:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xfb6308…
08-10 02:28:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 02:25 UTC	Up	SELL	5	23¢	$1	0xe5a08a…
08-10 02:25:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 02:25 UTC	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x247d6b…
08-10 02:20:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 02:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x9b068b…
08-10 02:15:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 02:15 UTC	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xe529f7…
08-10 02:14:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 02:10 UTC	Down	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0x0d47ce…
08-10 02:10:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 02:10 UTC	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x311cfd…
08-10 02:07:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 02:05 UTC	Down	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0x10e46d…
08-10 02:05:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 02:05 UTC	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x1ed4ec…
08-10 02:00:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 02:00 UTC	Down	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0x852998…
08-10 02:00:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 02:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xe46c20…
08-10 01:58:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 01:55 UTC	Up	SELL	6	29¢	$2	0x7b0b46…
08-10 01:55:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 01:55 UTC	Up	BUY	6	44¢	$3	0x6e64e6…
08-09 21:18:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 21:15 UTC	Down	SELL	2	75¢	$2	0x726286…
08-09 21:15:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 21:15 UTC	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x458bf6…
08-09 21:12:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 21:10 UTC	Up	SELL	2	70¢	$2	0x305b9e…
08-09 21:10:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 21:10 UTC	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xb45e84…
08-09 21:06:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 21:05 UTC	Down	SELL	2	77¢	$1	0x2658be…
08-09 21:05:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 21:05 UTC	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x7eb510…
08-09 21:02:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 21:00 UTC	Down	SELL	2	69¢	$1	0xba5218…
08-09 21:00:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 21:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xa71b17…
08-09 03:20:22	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 03:20 UTC	Up	BUY	8	44¢	$4	0x854f34…
08-09 03:20:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 03:20 UTC	Down	BUY	8	43¢	$3	0x50da67…
08-09 03:17:00	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 03:15 UTC	Down	BUY	8	68¢	$5	0x661f80…
08-09 03:16:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 03:15 UTC	Up	BUY	8	11¢	$1	0xf4f49c…
08-09 03:10:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 03:10 UTC	Up	SELL	8	51¢	$4	0x9c0fd8…
08-09 03:10:46	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 03:10 UTC	Down	SELL	8	48¢	$4	0x55df14…
08-09 03:10:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 03:10 UTC	Up	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x1291e4…
08-09 03:10:07	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 03:10 UTC	Down	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0xdfcb11…
08-09 03:08:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 03:05 UTC	Down	SELL	8	94¢	$8	0x60a9b9…
08-09 03:08:54	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 03:05 UTC	Up	SELL	8	1¢	$0	0x507fe3…
08-09 03:05:18	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 03:05 UTC	Up	BUY	8	46¢	$4	0xc99395…
08-09 03:05:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 03:05 UTC	Down	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0x61985a…
08-09 03:01:52	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 03:00 UTC	Down	SELL	8	82¢	$7	0xaeb9ba…
08-09 03:01:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 03:00 UTC	Up	SELL	8	15¢	$1	0x3a1b49…
08-09 03:01:04	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 03:00 UTC	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xfcf080…
08-09 03:01:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 03:00 UTC	Up	BUY	8	22¢	$2	0x8ab5cc…
08-09 02:52:01	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 02:50 UTC	Up	SELL	8	33¢	$3	0x2ba78d…
08-09 02:51:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 02:50 UTC	Down	SELL	8	62¢	$5	0x5a1c71…
08-09 02:51:39	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 02:50 UTC	Up	SELL	8	31¢	$2	0x52321e…
08-09 02:50:55	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 02:50 UTC	Up	BUY	8	14¢	$1	0x712363…
08-09 02:50:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 02:50 UTC	Down	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x4bd629…
08-09 02:50:39	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 02:50 UTC	Up	BUY	8	21¢	$2	0x3fe591…
08-09 02:46:00	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 02:45 UTC	Down	SELL	8	14¢	$1	0xfcae14…
08-09 02:45:57	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 02:45 UTC	Down	BUY	8	15¢	$1	0x9fb6af…
08-09 02:01:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 02:00 UTC	Up	SELL	8	36¢	$3	0xcaeed9…
08-09 02:00:36	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 02:00 UTC	Up	SELL	8	26¢	$2	0x2b5f65…
08-09 02:00:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 02:00 UTC	Up	BUY	8	48¢	$4	0xba8068…
08-09 02:00:21	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 02:00 UTC	Up	BUY	8	32¢	$3	0x675627…
08-09 01:39:40	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 01:35 UTC	Up	SELL	8	44¢	$4	0xa89eb3…
08-09 01:39:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 01:35 UTC	Up	SELL	16	13¢	$2	0xd56c3a…
08-09 01:38:37	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 01:35 UTC	Up	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0x6d994a…
08-09 01:38:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 01:35 UTC	Up	BUY	8	23¢	$2	0x08f665…
08-09 01:38:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 01:35 UTC	Up	SELL	8	37¢	$3	0x4e2a30…
08-09 01:38:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 01:35 UTC	Up	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0x15aad9…
08-09 01:38:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 01:35 UTC	Up	SELL	8	40¢	$3	0xf5e265…
08-09 01:38:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 01:35 UTC	Up	BUY	8	42¢	$3	0x424f8e…
08-09 01:38:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 01:35 UTC	Up	BUY	8	43¢	$3	0x488164…
08-09 01:13:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	SELL	8	65¢	$5	0xfbc834…
08-09 01:13:42	Ethereum Up or Down - August 8, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	SELL	8	58¢	$5	0x43eccf…