Ill-Informed-Email — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$394

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

40.4%

Resolved

1,082

Trades

2,263

lifetime

Volume

$7.26K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-07

last 10-23 21:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 45 days

Categories

Crypto

69% 37% -$364

Other

25% 0% -$16

Politics

4% 100% +$0

Tech

2% 0% -$12

Sports

0% 0% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 47 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes		+0	$1	20¢	$0	-$1	10-08 17:27

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	24	$742	776	776	+0	open	—	10-08 04:46
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	13	$535	502	502	+0	open	—	10-08 14:45
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	8	$287	252	252	+0	open	—	10-08 12:35
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in October?	4	$121	105	105	+0	open	—	10-08 10:10
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on October 13?	4	$119	98	98	-0	Yes	-$7	10-12 21:32
Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?	8	$110	118	118	+0	Yes	-$12	10-07 02:13
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	3	$80	53	53	+0	open	—	10-08 06:49
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	6	$63	111	111	+0	open	—	10-08 17:27
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 20:25 UTC	2	$40	40	40	+0	Up	$0	08-03 20:18
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	2	$33	53	53	+0	open	—	10-08 10:58
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on October 13?	3	$30	22	22	+0	Yes	-$1	10-12 21:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	6	$30	65	65	+0	Down	$0	05-13 18:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	6	$29	61	61	+0	Down	-$1	05-12 15:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	2	$26	21	21	+0	Up	+$16	05-11 18:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	6	$23	60	60	+0	Up	-$7	05-12 14:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 10:45 UTC	5	$22	20	20	+0	Down	+$3	08-05 10:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	4	$22	41	41	+0	Up	+$2	05-12 16:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	4	$22	46	46	+0	Up	+$2	05-13 18:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	6	$22	57	57	+0	Down	-$8	05-13 19:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	4	$22	46	46	+0	Down	+$2	05-12 15:44
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on October 13?	2	$21	21	21	+0	Yes	$0	10-12 21:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	4	$21	37	37	+0	Down	+$1	05-11 18:59
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?	2	$20	12	12	+0	Yes	+$0	10-08 13:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 11:05 UTC	3	$19	20	20	+0	Up	$0	08-05 11:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	4	$19	48	48	+0	Up	-$1	05-13 16:44
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?	2	$19	21	21	+0	open	—	10-08 16:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	4	$19	49	49	+0	Up	-$1	05-13 16:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	2	$19	24	24	+0	Up	+$9	05-11 19:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	4	$18	43	43	+0	Down	-$2	05-11 18:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	2	$17	24	24	+0	Down	+$7	05-11 21:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-23 21:26:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	SELL	16	24¢	$4	0xe71457…
10-23 21:25:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x5ec050…
10-12 21:39:38	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on October 13?	No	SELL	21	50¢	$11	0x0906ad…
10-12 21:38:59	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on October 13?	No	BUY	21	52¢	$11	0x915330…
10-12 21:32:29	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on October 13?	No	SELL	56	56¢	$31	0xf1b7de…
10-12 21:32:17	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on October 13?	No	SELL	36	59¢	$21	0x046bd5…
10-12 21:32:03	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on October 13?	No	SELL	5	65¢	$3	0x0d78ad…
10-12 21:30:12	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on October 13?	No	BUY	98	64¢	$63	0x170731…
10-12 21:16:12	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on October 13?	No	SELL	22	66¢	$15	0xa10e4a…
10-12 21:15:12	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on October 13?	No	BUY	1	64¢	$1	0x0d87e5…
10-12 21:14:05	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on October 13?	No	BUY	21	70¢	$15	0x0c89f7…
10-12 21:00:51	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on October 13?	Yes	SELL	2	40¢	$1	0x2295e9…
10-12 20:58:00	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xc43e54…
10-08 17:27:47	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0x252225…
10-08 17:24:15	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xaad4f2…
10-08 16:44:09	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	26¢	$5	0x97d933…
10-08 16:43:27	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	35¢	$7	0xd622fa…
10-08 16:43:24	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	21	40¢	$8	0x14aed4…
10-08 16:42:44	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	21	51¢	$11	0x5a91cc…
10-08 14:45:56	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	SELL	105	21¢	$22	0x8895b3…
10-08 14:44:09	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	BUY	105	22¢	$23	0xe5c6a7…
10-08 13:42:56	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on October 10?	No	SELL	16	47¢	$8	0x1fe701…
10-08 13:40:35	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on October 10?	No	BUY	8	47¢	$4	0x30df7d…
10-08 13:40:15	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on October 10?	No	BUY	8	47¢	$4	0x330f57…
10-08 13:32:50	Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?	Yes	SELL	12	85¢	$10	0x6b7d30…
10-08 13:32:27	Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?	Yes	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0xe97333…
10-08 12:35:39	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	105	56¢	$59	0x4d7a8d…
10-08 12:35:35	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	105	56¢	$59	0x0d2496…
10-08 11:59:30	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	2	57¢	$1	0xed9605…
10-08 11:59:20	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x27d3b9…
10-08 10:58:48	Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	53	30¢	$16	0x84c38d…
10-08 10:58:24	Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	33¢	$17	0x3042e1…
10-08 10:41:57	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	40	57¢	$23	0x5c7932…
10-08 10:41:50	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	40	58¢	$23	0x430e2c…
10-08 10:19:36	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	105	57¢	$60	0x0793d6…
10-08 10:19:32	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	105	58¢	$61	0x9a60ea…
10-08 10:10:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in October?	Yes	SELL	105	57¢	$60	0x2bb77b…
10-08 10:09:36	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in October?	Yes	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0x54d6c0…
10-08 10:09:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in October?	Yes	BUY	50	58¢	$29	0x9ecf60…
10-08 10:09:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in October?	Yes	BUY	45	58¢	$26	0x675f62…
10-08 08:19:25	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	SELL	105	76¢	$79	0x7cf46b…
10-08 08:18:56	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	BUY	105	76¢	$80	0xa9a695…
10-08 08:12:01	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	SELL	105	24¢	$25	0x985f3b…
10-08 08:11:40	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	BUY	105	24¢	$26	0x0f8382…
10-08 07:44:54	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	SELL	3	24¢	$1	0x91a818…
10-08 07:44:25	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	BUY	3	24¢	$1	0xd8d701…
10-08 07:36:48	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	53	28¢	$15	0xc8f9ca…
10-08 07:36:03	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	53	28¢	$15	0xf7f745…
10-08 06:49:20	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	No	SELL	53	75¢	$40	0xae2611…
10-08 06:49:13	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	39	75¢	$30	0x3d5d5f…
10-08 06:49:08	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	14	75¢	$10	0x0a9501…
10-08 05:36:13	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	53	28¢	$15	0xe4918f…
10-08 05:35:49	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	53	29¢	$16	0x4024f8…
10-08 04:46:25	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	105	29¢	$30	0x8206fc…
10-08 04:44:19	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	105	30¢	$32	0xb967f1…
10-08 03:04:19	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	SELL	105	76¢	$79	0x8dc67a…
10-08 03:04:11	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	BUY	105	76¢	$79	0x781970…
10-08 00:53:19	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	SELL	68	76¢	$52	0x1cb86c…
10-08 00:53:13	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	SELL	11	76¢	$8	0xc9a017…
10-08 00:52:28	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	BUY	79	76¢	$60	0x880b87…
10-07 22:51:22	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	105	29¢	$30	0x3733fe…
10-07 22:51:16	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	105	30¢	$32	0x6c4f75…
10-07 21:44:24	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	30¢	$1	0x558dba…
10-07 21:44:13	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xedbf13…
10-07 17:03:22	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	69¢	$7	0x070824…
10-07 17:02:58	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x98c270…
10-07 15:11:41	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	105	70¢	$74	0xd86b87…
10-07 15:11:28	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	105	70¢	$74	0x542c96…
10-07 02:13:12	Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?	No	SELL	53	30¢	$16	0xf58a0e…
10-07 02:13:08	Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	53	51¢	$27	0x9ad728…
10-07 01:25:35	Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	48¢	$1	0xfbd5a2…
10-07 01:25:21	Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xd443bb…
10-07 01:00:05	Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?	No	SELL	53	52¢	$27	0x5e7f15…
10-07 00:59:45	Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	53	53¢	$28	0xf78a6c…
10-07 00:59:44	Will Argentina's monthly inflation in September 2026 be between 1.9% and 2.1%?	No	SELL	21	31¢	$7	0xf598a0…
10-07 00:59:23	Will Argentina's monthly inflation in September 2026 be between 1.9% and 2.1%?	No	BUY	21	43¢	$9	0x1c9660…
10-06 17:56:57	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	105	28¢	$29	0x4d7a5a…
10-06 17:56:51	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	105	28¢	$29	0x8382eb…
10-06 15:23:15	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	21	71¢	$15	0x450eff…
10-06 15:22:33	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	21	71¢	$15	0x3f2001…
10-06 14:24:14	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	105	71¢	$75	0x557459…
10-06 14:23:59	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15	71¢	$11	0x6d136a…
10-06 14:23:51	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	90	71¢	$64	0xe83197…
10-06 12:56:58	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	105	28¢	$29	0xc5a90d…
10-06 12:56:43	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	28¢	$3	0xd439ab…
10-06 12:56:39	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	96	28¢	$27	0x1d041a…
10-06 12:21:28	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	71¢	$5	0xc31580…
10-06 12:21:22	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x031d8d…
10-06 06:51:43	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	105	71¢	$75	0xb28f67…
10-06 06:51:31	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	105	71¢	$75	0x388e18…
10-06 04:59:00	Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	45¢	$4	0x66df12…
10-06 04:58:45	Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xe00947…
10-05 17:32:01	Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	5	14¢	$1	0xc2fd7d…
09-14 14:15:33	Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x7740fe…
09-14 14:13:34	Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xe13026…
09-09 12:49:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	SELL	1	35¢	$0	0x03d370…
09-09 12:38:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xccb92b…
09-09 12:38:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x96a5f0…
09-09 12:36:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 8AM ET	Up	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x259448…
09-09 12:36:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 8AM ET	Down	SELL	8	10¢	$1	0x87833d…