Pretty-Archaeologist — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$92

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

67.0%

Resolved

114

Trades

321

lifetime

Volume

$3.88K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 09-23 22:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 50 days

Categories

Politics

53% 58% -$63

Other

37% 46% -$61

Tech

4% 100% +$4

Crypto

3% 60% +$8

Sports

2% 100% +$16

Pop-Culture

1% 100% +$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	+10	$6	29¢	$3	-$3	06-07 12:46
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	-10	-$4	22¢	$-2	+$1	06-09 08:25
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Yes	-10	-$2	4¢	$-0	+$1	06-09 08:26
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	Yes	-10	$0	1¢	$-0	+$0	06-09 08:25
2026 Balance of Power: Other	Yes	-10	$0	0¢	$-0	+$0	06-09 08:26

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	9	$197	148	97	+51	Yes	+$14	03-03 23:26
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary?	4	$163	90	90	+0	Yes	+$13	06-09 08:18
will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	3	$160	90	90	+0	No	+$18	07-01 05:16
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	5	$141	122	86	+36	Yes	-$33	03-02 20:06
us strike on somalia by february 7 553	9	$108	222	222	+0	No	-$38	02-09 19:24
us strike on somalia by january 31 956	4	$105	63	63	+0	Yes	+$20	01-26 23:09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$104	60	60	+0	No	+$2	06-26 09:58
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	5	$99	60	60	+0	No	-$1	07-01 05:28
will the us collect less than 100b in revenue in 2025	5	$90	85	35	+50	Yes	+$12	02-08 19:20
khamenei seen in public by march 7 249 832 798 867	2	$86	47	47	+0	No	+$6	02-28 21:53
will tit me pregunt be played first at the super bowl halftime show	4	$83	50	50	+0	Yes	+$16	02-09 04:23
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	3	$73	40	40	+0	Yes	+$6	06-09 08:12
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	6	$73	113	113	+0	No	+$5	03-03 21:49
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	5	$71	40	40	+0	No	+$4	06-27 16:06
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	2	$71	40	40	+0	Yes	+$7	06-04 12:57
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	3	$70	50	50	+0	open	—	09-23 22:33
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	3	$68	39	39	+0	No	+$10	01-31 23:15
will a gulf state strike iran by march 7	5	$63	62	62	+0	No	+$7	03-07 02:06
will the us collect between 100b and 200b in revenue in 2025	5	$60	383	383	+0	No	-$4	01-28 21:39
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	4	$58	35	35	+0	Yes	+$11	03-30 18:48
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	2	$57	30	30	+0	No	+$3	06-22 11:41
will trump talk to vladimir putin in january	6	$54	14,583	0	+14,583	No	-$54	02-03 23:50
khamenei seen in public by march 2 179 218 146	2	$53	30	30	+0	No	+$7	03-01 02:25
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$53	30	30	+0	Yes	+$6	02-28 21:47
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	6	$52	48	48	+0	No	+$7	03-26 04:36
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	2	$51	30	30	+0	Yes	+$0	06-20 10:30
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	2	$50	30	30	+0	open	—	06-18 19:35
will lady gaga win 2 grammys	2	$49	26	26	+0	Yes	+$3	02-02 16:00
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	2	$47	72	72	+0	No	-$13	03-02 18:29
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 2 645 466 285 492	7	$42	40	40	+0	No	-$4	03-01 17:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-23 22:33:49	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	73¢	$36	0xf3546f…
07-07 18:43:35	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.8% in June?	No	BUY	1	52¢	$0	0xe10e0e…
07-07 16:43:23	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.9% in June?	Yes	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0x7d9c18…
07-07 13:03:26	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.8% in June?	No	SELL	6	52¢	$3	0xc061c5…
07-05 21:57:16	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.8% in June?	No	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0xcb31cd…
07-05 11:05:14	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in June?	Yes	SELL	30	11¢	$3	0xd33c9d…
07-05 08:02:13	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in June?	Yes	SELL	29	3¢	$1	0xd776f5…
07-05 05:15:35	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in June?	Yes	BUY	29	2¢	$1	0xc81ed4…
07-05 05:15:08	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in June?	Yes	BUY	30	17¢	$5	0x5e8d14…
07-01 05:28:55	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	60	82¢	$49	0x4412f2…
07-01 05:28:25	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x2c8222…
07-01 05:16:25	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	90	99¢	$89	0x0ae242…
06-30 08:25:19	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	67¢	$6	0xb47535…
06-30 08:25:17	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	67¢	$27	0xf1bc31…
06-29 05:40:46	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0x5dd9bf…
06-28 05:20:02	iran successfully targets shipping on june 27 20260625225210238	Yes	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xe9f899…
06-27 16:06:08	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	No	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0xfd3777…
06-27 15:03:32	iran successfully targets shipping on june 27 20260625225210238	Yes	BUY	0	80¢	$0	0x3db9fa…
06-27 14:59:17	iran successfully targets shipping on june 27 20260625225210238	Yes	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x37ea3c…
06-27 14:59:14	iran successfully targets shipping on june 27 20260625225210238	Yes	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xab1134…
06-27 14:37:05	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x91ccb2…
06-27 14:37:04	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	No	SELL	15	94¢	$14	0xc1831e…
06-26 10:33:35	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	40	78¢	$31	0x638f16…
06-26 09:58:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	60	88¢	$53	0x7c228e…
06-26 04:09:31	Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0xdb7599…
06-25 14:09:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	60	86¢	$51	0x5f8d52…
06-23 20:00:34	Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0x7b27db…
06-23 18:47:14	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	26	84¢	$22	0xdd93d7…
06-23 18:26:40	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xe947d9…
06-23 17:52:29	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x6d567b…
06-23 17:33:13	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	26	84¢	$22	0x973117…
06-22 11:41:11	Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0xc2543a…
06-20 16:42:20	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	No	BUY	26	84¢	$22	0xc8c504…
06-20 15:37:01	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0xc7b614…
06-20 12:27:04	Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0xaba8ef…
06-20 12:26:17	Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0x47b2a0…
06-20 12:25:47	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0xa03995…
06-20 10:30:52	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0x1cd4ce…
06-20 10:30:26	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	Yes	SELL	30	86¢	$26	0x52d288…
06-20 04:17:29	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x2af44c…
06-19 18:42:34	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xd68949…
06-19 18:37:53	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	15	82¢	$12	0xa61d6d…
06-19 18:25:01	Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	BUY	30	90¢	$27	0xbd0d18…
06-19 18:17:26	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	Yes	BUY	30	85¢	$26	0x42690f…
06-19 18:16:58	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	0	82¢	$0	0xcab684…
06-19 17:49:49	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	No	BUY	14	84¢	$12	0x0595df…
06-19 17:17:43	Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	SELL	34	23¢	$8	0xb31d99…
06-19 15:25:07	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	15	54¢	$8	0x3cf47a…
06-19 14:52:43	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	35	54¢	$19	0x01b580…
06-18 20:17:53	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x64dcf4…
06-18 19:35:56	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	10	80¢	$8	0xb56bc4…
06-18 19:35:52	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	20	42¢	$8	0x4a9866…
06-18 19:35:44	Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	88¢	$27	0x2708a6…
06-18 19:34:55	Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0x900beb…
06-18 07:04:41	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x419e3e…
06-10 13:24:28	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0xfeda97…
06-10 12:34:46	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	SELL	130	10¢	$13	0x7985aa…
06-09 08:56:30	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	83	9¢	$8	0xe6f54d…
06-09 08:26:10	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Yes	SELL	10	17¢	$2	0xed0200…
06-09 08:26:04	2026 Balance of Power: Other	Yes	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0x2abcca…
06-09 08:25:57	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	10	36¢	$4	0x64767f…
06-09 08:25:46	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	Yes	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x247ead…
06-09 08:18:34	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	47	9¢	$4	0x06bb45…
06-09 08:18:03	Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary?	Yes	SELL	90	98¢	$88	0x478448…
06-09 08:12:18	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	40	99¢	$39	0x0c2273…
06-07 12:54:45	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x9f4745…
06-07 12:46:03	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0xc73e97…
06-06 08:08:27	Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary?	Yes	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0xb7994a…
06-06 07:36:31	Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary?	Yes	BUY	30	90¢	$27	0x82d942…
06-06 06:52:52	Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0x705464…
06-06 06:52:39	Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0x3db9e9…
06-05 08:21:03	Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0xb01738…
06-05 08:10:55	Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0xc9fdac…
06-05 07:47:06	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0xe7af1f…
06-04 12:57:06	Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	40	98¢	$39	0xff96a6…
06-03 07:28:38	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x385328…
06-03 07:28:36	Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	35	84¢	$29	0xb53df5…
06-03 06:46:04	Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary?	Yes	BUY	40	75¢	$30	0xcc4e01…
06-02 17:15:30	Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	40	80¢	$32	0x3f07dc…
06-02 17:12:18	Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	78¢	$23	0xa524a0…
04-22 05:12:30	U.S. strike on Nigeria by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	20¢	$8	0xf66514…
03-30 20:26:31	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x8bdb89…
03-30 18:48:29	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x1814ab…
03-30 06:33:36	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0x6a5b9a…
03-29 16:25:56	military action against iran continues through march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x925c9b…
03-26 13:10:57	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	No	SELL	3	87¢	$3	0x17a769…
03-26 12:41:35	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	No	SELL	17	87¢	$14	0x54967c…
03-26 04:36:17	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	No	SELL	18	86¢	$16	0x0bfdad…
03-26 04:32:19	military action against iran continues through march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0xc9c806…
03-23 07:17:43	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	1	24¢	$0	0x9709f1…
03-23 07:17:31	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0xcaf00b…
03-23 07:17:31	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	4	24¢	$1	0xafade8…
03-23 07:16:45	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	30	24¢	$7	0x50ab5e…
03-21 16:17:03	will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	Yes	SELL	10	15¢	$2	0xeb2549…
03-21 16:16:31	will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	Yes	SELL	10	15¢	$2	0x78b3a5…
03-11 00:07:09	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	SELL	18	94¢	$17	0x131821…
03-09 19:20:01	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	No	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x50cbdb…
03-09 05:13:01	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	No	SELL	10	7¢	$1	0x13e853…
03-09 05:12:25	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	40	41¢	$16	0xf9e7f1…
03-09 02:36:29	will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xd129f5…