Unequaled-Posterior — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$746

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

49.4%

Resolved

3,920

Trades

11,486

lifetime

Volume

$47.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-12

last 06-04 04:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 38 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 52% -$724

Politics

1% 0% -$2

Other

0% 43% -$20

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-04).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	18	$300	500	300	+200	Yes	-$2	04-29 02:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	34	$168	461	0	+461	Down	-$168	04-30 15:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	34	$147	197	76	+121	Down	-$31	05-03 14:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	32	$146	190	66	+124	Down	+$31	05-03 14:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	31	$137	195	64	+131	Down	-$22	05-03 14:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	26	$130	210	51	+159	Down	-$21	05-03 16:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	25	$122	9,954	0	+9,954	Down	-$122	04-30 16:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	3	$119	74	65	+9	Down	+$10	05-02 10:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	2	$115	10,020	0	+10,020	Down	-$115	05-14 10:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	24	$113	190	44	+146	Up	-$4	05-03 15:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	24	$112	188	30	+158	Up	+$21	05-03 16:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	23	$110	188	19	+169	Up	+$4	05-03 14:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	30	$107	153	48	+105	Down	-$7	05-03 15:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	23	$105	196	25	+171	Down	+$44	05-03 14:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	2	$105	56	56	+0	Down	+$5	05-29 23:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	27	$105	188	25	+163	Up	+$14	05-03 14:33
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-21 07:50 UTC	3	$104	695	0	+695	Down	-$104	04-21 07:52
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-24 10:15 UTC	1	$100	249	0	+249	Up	-$100	04-24 10:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	43	$100	93	90	+3	Down	-$2	04-25 10:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	22	$99	173	28	+145	Down	+$2	05-03 16:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	22	$99	151	76	+75	Up	+$38	05-03 14:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	24	$98	255	27	+228	Down	-$11	05-03 15:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	23	$97	190	4	+186	Up	+$15	05-03 13:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	23	$95	219	8	+211	Up	-$15	05-03 16:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	20	$95	180	0	+180	Up	-$9	05-14 16:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	21	$94	197	15	+182	Down	-$19	05-03 16:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	23	$94	156	26	+130	Down	-$26	05-03 16:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	23	$94	177	26	+151	Down	-$10	05-03 15:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	21	$94	211	18	+193	Up	-$9	05-03 14:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	20	$93	173	0	+173	Down	-$20	05-03 16:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-04 04:52:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 04:50 UTC	Down	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0x299fa3…
06-04 03:41:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 03:40 UTC	Down	BUY	124	40¢	$50	0x4d1254…
06-04 02:00:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 02:00 UTC	Up	BUY	89	56¢	$50	0x5438ff…
06-04 01:54:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 01:55 UTC	Up	BUY	91	55¢	$50	0x2137a7…
06-04 01:50:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 01:50 UTC	Up	BUY	89	56¢	$50	0xc3fa52…
06-04 01:41:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 01:40 UTC	Up	BUY	75	67¢	$50	0x84bf6d…
06-04 01:30:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 01:30 UTC	Up	BUY	82	61¢	$50	0xd188f0…
06-04 01:01:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 01:00 UTC	Up	BUY	53	57¢	$30	0x8154f8…
05-31 03:36:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x794ddc…
05-31 03:30:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0xaf1f16…
05-31 03:25:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	16	29¢	$5	0xc22171…
05-31 03:15:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Down	BUY	6	74¢	$5	0x905ddb…
05-31 03:10:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	7	63¢	$4	0x8e71f5…
05-31 03:00:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	13	35¢	$5	0xd2e8bc…
05-31 02:45:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x353e56…
05-31 02:36:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xf4e9b9…
05-31 02:25:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	74¢	$4	0x458152…
05-31 02:15:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	87¢	$5	0x0cb005…
05-31 01:43:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x3446ee…
05-31 01:23:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xbe70a3…
05-31 01:09:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	249	2¢	$5	0x35f478…
05-31 00:25:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x61ddb2…
05-31 00:23:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	BUY	32	15¢	$5	0xd217ba…
05-31 00:00:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	18	27¢	$5	0xa2e98b…
05-30 23:44:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xd7947e…
05-30 23:33:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	6	74¢	$5	0xefd549…
05-30 23:20:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x7448ab…
05-30 23:18:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x637350…
05-30 23:10:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	7	65¢	$5	0xc646cf…
05-30 23:09:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0x97ad95…
05-30 22:41:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	11	43¢	$5	0x87b816…
05-30 22:16:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xea9ae0…
05-30 22:06:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Down	BUY	9	50¢	$4	0x3b9e68…
05-30 21:51:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Up	BUY	8	53¢	$4	0xae52da…
05-30 21:45:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$4	0x97bc39…
05-30 21:42:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0xed390b…
05-30 21:24:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	24	20¢	$5	0x2576a0…
05-30 20:37:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x71e10b…
05-30 19:39:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x919613…
05-30 19:30:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	44¢	$5	0xcd1e09…
05-30 19:21:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xa0196d…
05-30 19:16:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	6	76¢	$5	0xb7df5d…
05-30 19:01:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x2c00f6…
05-30 18:45:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x0bf141…
05-30 18:25:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x9fbb20…
05-30 18:18:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x6e0249…
05-30 17:39:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x530bad…
05-30 17:30:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	30	16¢	$5	0xe3b6a5…
05-30 17:07:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xd770c4…
05-30 16:12:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x934013…
05-30 16:01:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	22	22¢	$5	0x89f459…
05-30 15:03:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	83¢	$5	0xec676f…
05-30 14:45:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xddf158…
05-30 14:30:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	6	73¢	$4	0xf23252…
05-30 14:25:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x8a6cc6…
05-30 14:21:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$4	0x99a5fe…
05-30 14:18:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xbe11ca…
05-30 14:10:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x8a20ea…
05-30 13:45:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0x86bbf1…
05-30 13:41:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0xa90e3a…
05-30 12:45:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xeffad4…
05-30 12:24:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	16	29¢	$5	0x16387c…
05-30 11:24:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	15	32¢	$5	0xdeb72a…
05-30 11:17:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	6	73¢	$4	0x50c808…
05-30 11:08:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x393b4e…
05-30 10:56:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	7	63¢	$5	0x5595f8…
05-30 10:28:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x6d6aa1…
05-30 10:24:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xd42280…
05-30 10:17:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xe00869…
05-30 10:01:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x775bdc…
05-30 09:54:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	21	23¢	$5	0x7bd8a7…
05-30 09:34:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	7	65¢	$5	0xab5fdc…
05-30 09:18:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0xf28bef…
05-30 09:04:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	7	65¢	$5	0xdfc1ac…
05-30 08:51:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	6	73¢	$4	0x99a49c…
05-30 08:39:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x6d9f9c…
05-30 08:25:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	8	58¢	$5	0xa0ad84…
05-30 08:24:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	11	39¢	$4	0x09fdeb…
05-30 08:12:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x2571c1…
05-30 07:52:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	8	54¢	$5	0x0bbfbf…
05-30 07:48:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	6	77¢	$4	0x0762a3…
05-30 07:35:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x606b7d…
05-30 07:23:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	89¢	$5	0xf7f206…
05-30 07:13:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	61¢	$4	0xe905b1…
05-30 07:02:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	89¢	$5	0xd8ed03…
05-30 06:57:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xe5e8ba…
05-30 06:38:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	7	64¢	$5	0xedc767…
05-30 06:30:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$4	0xc68d8d…
05-30 06:15:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0x79eb64…
05-30 06:05:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Down	BUY	13	37¢	$5	0x1ba786…
05-30 06:03:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x39ce8c…
05-30 05:51:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x413743…
05-30 05:46:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x565d0a…
05-30 05:40:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0x8fb462…
05-30 05:29:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x121ee1…
05-30 05:17:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x325647…
05-30 05:05:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x3e27eb…
05-30 04:52:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	9	49¢	$5	0x5f25aa…
05-30 04:47:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x714738…
05-30 04:35:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	BUY	9	51¢	$5	0x82b274…