Scarce-Seller — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

52.9%

Resolved

Trades

163

lifetime

Volume

$436

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-06

last 07-21 06:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

58% — —

Politics

24% 50% $-0

Other

15% 67% +$1

Sports

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

33 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin up or down february 16 10am et	4	$22	45	0	+45	open	—	02-16 15:23
bitcoin up or down february 15 9am et	2	$20	33	0	+33	open	—	02-15 14:09
btc updown 15m 1771850700	5	$15	14	14	+0	open	—	02-23 12:48
bitcoin up or down february 17 11am et	2	$14	9	9	+0	open	—	02-17 16:47
bitcoin up or down february 17 12pm et	3	$13	30	0	+30	open	—	02-17 17:18
Will Trump say "Kevin" or "Warsh" during Coast Guard event?	4	$11	10	10	+0	open	—	05-19 22:49
ethereum up or down february 9 12pm et	4	$11	8	8	+0	open	—	02-09 17:59
bitcoin up or down february 12 10pm et	3	$10	6	6	+0	open	—	02-13 03:51
will trump say beautiful 7 times during tribute to america rally 20260630160620558	2	$10	6	6	+0	open	—	07-05 03:43
bitcoin up or down february 12 11am et	2	$9	7	7	+0	open	—	02-12 16:25
btc updown 15m 1771857000	3	$9	9	5	+4	open	—	02-23 14:39
btc updown 15m 1771844400	3	$9	8	8	+0	open	—	02-23 11:09
btc updown 15m 1771853400	2	$7	7	6	+0	open	—	02-23 13:37
will trump say birthday during june 24 rally 20260616194255607	2	$7	8	8	+0	open	—	06-25 01:08
btc updown 15m 1771851600	2	$6	6	6	+0	open	—	02-23 13:13
bitcoin up or down february 20 9am et	3	$6	10	5	+5	open	—	02-20 14:34
bitcoin up or down february 14 7pm et	1	$6	13	0	+13	open	—	02-15 00:10
will trump say medal of freedom during tpusa events on april 17	3	$5	9	9	+0	open	—	04-17 22:51
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$5	5	5	+0	open	—	05-14 12:36
bitcoin up or down february 13 10am et	2	$5	11	0	+11	open	—	02-13 15:11
bitcoin up or down february 17 6am et	1	$5	7	0	+7	open	—	02-17 11:53
will apple be said during the next episode of the lemonade stand podcast	1	$5	8	0	+8	open	—	05-19 09:25
btc updown 15m 1771512300	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	02-19 14:44
bitcoin up or down february 18 12pm et	1	$5	9	0	+9	open	—	02-18 17:24
bitcoin up or down february 16 9am et	1	$5	8	0	+8	open	—	02-16 14:21
Will Trump say "Kennedy" during WHCA Dinner events?	2	$5	3	3	+0	open	—	04-26 01:42
btc updown 15m 1771838100	3	$4	8	4	+4	open	—	02-23 09:24
nba gsw lal 2026 02 07	2	$4	10	0	+10	open	—	02-08 02:18
bitcoin up or down february 13 3am et	1	$4	6	0	+6	open	—	02-13 08:24
bitcoin up or down february 19 9am et	1	$4	10	0	+10	open	—	02-19 14:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 06:36:00	will trump say melania during white house correspondents dinner 20260715212255822	Yes	BUY	4	61¢	$2	0xc5a709…
07-20 12:45:15	will bernie say endorse endorsed or endorsement during minneapolis rally 20260719004357864	Yes	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0x010610…
07-18 23:22:54	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 btts	Yes	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x90b9d4…
07-15 23:47:11	will trump say world cup during speech to the nation 20260713200621432	No	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xbf6d47…
07-15 11:21:58	will trump say ai or artificial intelligence during speech to the nation 20260713200621423	No	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0x68a792…
07-15 09:50:55	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 btts	Yes	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x6366e0…
07-15 00:47:11	will trump say russia during speech to the nation 20260713200621434	No	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xb7c52c…
07-14 05:28:56	will trump say russia during speech to the nation 20260713200621434	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x3f1109…
07-11 15:39:50	will anyone say dragon 30 times during house of the dragon e4 s3 20260707144111454	No	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0x50f0eb…
07-08 00:24:52	will vance say corruption during milwaukee remarks 20260707201847868	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xc55ca9…
07-05 04:02:25	will anyone say dragon 30 times during house of the dragon e3 s3 20260630143728047	No	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0xe11423…
07-05 03:43:55	will trump say beautiful 7 times during tribute to america rally 20260630160620558	Yes	SELL	6	97¢	$6	0xaa4f8f…
07-01 11:56:20	will trump say stock market during tribute to america rally 20260630160620575	No	BUY	12	15¢	$2	0x253aa2…
07-01 11:51:55	will trump say beautiful 7 times during tribute to america rally 20260630160620558	Yes	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0x8d596c…
06-25 08:30:16	will anyone say dragon 20 times during house of the dragon e2 s3 20260623150949874	Yes	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0x7fe414…
06-25 08:29:25	will anyone say commander 5 times during house of the dragon e2 s3 20260623150949876	Yes	BUY	14	21¢	$3	0xe633ca…
06-25 01:08:59	will trump say birthday during june 24 rally 20260616194255607	Yes	SELL	8	37¢	$3	0xc88a85…
06-24 12:57:20	will trump say birthday during june 24 rally 20260616194255607	Yes	BUY	8	47¢	$4	0x2ecbde…
06-24 12:45:25	will trump say ufc during june 24 rally 20260616194255608	No	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x9266ac…
06-23 02:27:16	will trump say iowa during pennsylvania events 20260619211746761	No	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x0b3fdc…
06-14 09:14:48	will warsh say dual mandate during june press conference 20260608181156660	Yes	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0x853b71…
06-08 21:50:00	will trump say state 5 times during tele rally 20260608165428964	No	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x11001e…
06-04 00:13:31	will trump say job 20 times during wisconsin events 20260602174201993	Yes	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xc2dc65…
06-03 07:30:52	Will "Alien" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 1?	Yes	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xf22f1a…
06-02 04:16:56	Will "Rent" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	Yes	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0x6a1320…
05-31 03:31:18	Will Trump say "Bahrain" this week?	No	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x175412…
05-31 03:31:08	Will Trump say "Nuke" this week?	No	SELL	5	9¢	$0	0x5a4ded…
05-30 02:08:38	Will Trump say "Uber" this week?	No	BUY	1	55¢	$1	0xa450e3…
05-28 21:37:43	Will Trump say "Bahrain" this week?	No	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x09fd6d…
05-28 19:21:43	Will Trump say "Nuke" this week?	No	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x175955…
05-27 14:22:44	Will Trump say "Deal" 15+ times during Cabinet meeting?	No	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xb93f1a…
05-27 05:12:44	Will Vance say "Semper" during Air Force Academy Address?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x8343d3…
05-21 14:09:14	Will Trump say "Radical Left" during events in Rockland County?	Yes	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x37a10a…
05-20 03:03:03	Will Candace Owens or Hunter Biden say "Charlie" or "Kirk" 5+ times on Thursday?	No	BUY	10	25¢	$3	0x298e06…
05-19 22:49:16	Will Trump say "Kevin" or "Warsh" during Coast Guard event?	Yes	SELL	4	71¢	$3	0xcd397c…
05-19 22:46:27	Will Trump say "Kevin" or "Warsh" during Coast Guard event?	Yes	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x8f06e0…
05-19 09:25:21	will apple be said during the next episode of the lemonade stand podcast	Yes	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xd541bc…
05-19 09:23:36	Will Trump say "Kevin" or "Warsh" during Coast Guard event?	No	SELL	6	28¢	$2	0x693904…
05-19 01:08:32	Will Trump say "Kevin" or "Warsh" during Coast Guard event?	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0xe17dd8…
05-14 13:52:38	Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0xe921c0…
05-14 12:36:20	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0x35246f…
05-13 14:39:03	Will King Charles say "Gas" during State Opening?	Yes	SELL	15	0¢	$0	0x2aac01…
05-13 01:34:20	Will King Charles say "Gas" during State Opening?	Yes	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0xd210ae…
05-10 03:54:25	Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x59682b…
05-07 17:06:30	Will Trump say "Rare earth" or "Mineral" during events with Brazilian president?	Yes	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0xc487ee…
05-06 16:03:29	Will Trump or Melania say "Child" 5+ times at the Military Mothers event?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x180f15…
05-06 00:47:12	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xe54dc5…
05-05 08:30:44	Will JD Vance say "Tariff" in Des Moines?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xb6f338…
05-05 08:25:40	Will JD Vance say "China" in Des Moines?	Yes	BUY	4	60¢	$2	0x5e93b0…
05-02 12:53:00	Will Bernie Sanders say "Data Center" in Michigan?	Yes	BUY	2	28¢	$0	0x940478…
05-02 04:59:26	Will Bernie Sanders say "Data Center" in Michigan?	Yes	BUY	3	28¢	$1	0xbf188f…
05-02 04:57:18	Will Bernie Sanders say "One Percent" or "One Percenter" 3+ times in Michigan?	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x3e5c3b…
05-01 18:46:40	Will Trump say "China" at The Villages on May 1?	No	BUY	2	30¢	$1	0x5cf89d…
05-01 18:28:04	Will Trump say "China" at The Villages on May 1?	No	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x6ed57c…
04-29 03:10:54	Will Trump say "NATO" during King Charles visit?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x0ccd2c…
04-29 02:59:38	Will Trump say "NATO" during King Charles visit?	No	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xe32397…
04-27 06:36:56	Will Trump say "Elizabeth" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x1efa92…
04-26 02:06:48	Will Trump say "Wall Street" during WHCA Dinner events?	Yes	SELL	7	0¢	$0	0xf0eaad…
04-26 02:06:38	Will Trump say "First Lady" or "Movie Star" during WHCA Dinner events?	Yes	SELL	6	0¢	$0	0xf0cfb4…
04-26 01:42:12	Will Trump say "Kennedy" during WHCA Dinner events?	No	SELL	3	95¢	$3	0x53e65e…
04-26 01:16:26	Will Trump say "First Lady" or "Movie Star" during WHCA Dinner events?	Yes	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x6fbdf7…
04-26 01:01:32	Will Trump say "Wall Street" during WHCA Dinner events?	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x849ce7…
04-24 16:47:50	Will Trump say "First Amendment" during WHCA Dinner events?	Yes	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0xc9492f…
04-22 14:57:22	Will Trump say "First Amendment" during WHCA Dinner events?	Yes	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xe65c38…
04-22 11:02:44	Will Trump say "Kennedy" during WHCA Dinner events?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0xe60587…
04-17 22:51:32	will trump say medal of freedom during tpusa events on april 17	Yes	SELL	9	1¢	$0	0xf5434e…
04-17 02:30:56	will trump say medal of freedom during tpusa events on april 17	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x756182…
04-17 02:27:12	will trump say medal of freedom during tpusa events on april 17	Yes	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0xc5f042…
04-17 00:30:20	will trump say job 12 times during no tax on tips roundtable	No	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x0d1496…
04-15 17:06:20	Will Leavitt say "Ceasefire" during the next White House press briefing?	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xc47fca…
04-15 12:33:26	will starmer say deeply concerning during the next prime ministers questions event	Yes	SELL	4	0¢	$0	0xe21e52…
04-13 05:17:07	will fidesz kdnp win at least 80 seats	Yes	SELL	4	1¢	$0	0xb4ac39…
04-13 05:16:55	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	SELL	3	0¢	$0	0x2d9d48…
04-11 01:57:25	will bernie or mamdani say shutdown or shut down during nyc rally	Yes	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0xe45ced…
04-09 13:05:29	will melania say school during statement on april 9	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x532685…
04-09 01:18:01	will starmer say deeply concerning during the next prime ministers questions event	Yes	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x1d50ce…
04-08 02:31:13	will starmer say national security during the next prime ministers questions event	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x26374e…
04-06 23:45:47	will jd vance say god 3 times during meetings with orbn	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x26c60b…
04-06 15:04:11	will trump say weather or rain or raining during the white house easter egg roll	Yes	SELL	3	1¢	$0	0x751b44…
04-06 14:59:35	will trump say jesus christ during the white house easter egg roll	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x0ad2cc…
04-06 14:30:53	will trump say weather or rain or raining during the white house easter egg roll	Yes	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x0fe9e7…
04-05 06:43:51	will fidesz kdnp win at least 80 seats	Yes	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xe00b0f…
04-05 06:37:13	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xc44ffd…
04-05 03:49:01	will trump say jesus christ during the white house easter egg roll	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x28bd72…
02-23 14:50:06	btc updown 15m 1771857900	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x211f9f…
02-23 14:39:12	btc updown 15m 1771857000	Down	BUY	4	88¢	$3	0x41ebdc…
02-23 14:34:44	btc updown 15m 1771857000	Down	SELL	5	65¢	$3	0xd673ef…
02-23 14:30:06	btc updown 15m 1771857000	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x5e567c…
02-23 13:59:20	btc updown 15m 1771855200	Down	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0xd80dec…
02-23 13:44:28	btc updown 15m 1771854300	Up	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x5348d7…
02-23 13:37:26	btc updown 15m 1771853400	Down	SELL	6	70¢	$4	0xd352f6…
02-23 13:31:54	btc updown 15m 1771853400	Down	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0x56c75c…
02-23 13:15:08	btc updown 15m 1771852500	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x0fbfc8…
02-23 13:13:10	btc updown 15m 1771851600	Down	SELL	6	60¢	$3	0xfc566b…
02-23 12:59:24	btc updown 15m 1771851600	Down	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0xe141ce…
02-23 12:48:48	btc updown 15m 1771850700	Down	SELL	6	60¢	$3	0x0f1dcd…
02-23 12:48:46	btc updown 15m 1771850700	Down	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0x73041e…
02-23 12:47:54	btc updown 15m 1771850700	Down	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0x43e5e8…
02-23 12:47:32	btc updown 15m 1771850700	Up	SELL	6	65¢	$4	0x064c05…
02-23 12:44:44	btc updown 15m 1771850700	Up	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0xfd26c6…