Frayed-Misrepresentation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$190

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

97.3%

Resolved

146

Trades

212

lifetime

Volume

$69.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$327

Open exposure

$104

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-08 15:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 131 days

Categories

Crypto

96% 98% +$170

Other

4% 100% +$20

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No		+106	$104	98¢	$104	+$0	11-08 15:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 8?	2	$1.0K	516	516	+0	Yes	-$1	09-07 14:25
will ethereum dip to 1200 in july 2026 853	2	$950	489	489	+0	No	+$6	07-13 04:47
bitcoin above 56k on june 27 2026	2	$918	462	462	+0	Yes	+$4	06-27 05:41
bitcoin above 64k on june 26 2026	2	$912	458	458	+0	No	+$2	06-26 11:03
will bitcoin reach 85k in june 2026	2	$902	453	453	+0	No	+$2	06-24 23:59
bitcoin above 68k on june 18 2026	3	$892	448	448	+0	No	+$2	06-18 03:26
bitcoin above 74k on june 6 2026	2	$881	441	441	+0	No	+$1	06-05 14:22
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?	2	$869	437	437	+0	No	+$3	05-28 00:02
bitcoin above 64k on april 5	5	$848	426	426	+0	Yes	+$3	04-05 05:42
will the price of bitcoin be between 64000 66000 on march 26	2	$834	418	418	+0	No	+$1	03-26 05:47
bitcoin above 70k on march 18	2	$832	424	424	+0	Yes	-$7	03-18 14:10
bitcoin above 76k on march 19	2	$827	415	415	+0	No	+$1	03-19 10:17
bitcoin above 54k on march 3	2	$826	414	414	+0	Yes	+$2	03-03 11:22
bitcoin above 74k on february 24	2	$816	409	409	+0	No	+$0	02-24 06:06
bitcoin above 76k on february 20	2	$814	408	408	+0	No	+$1	02-20 06:13
bitcoin above 60k on february 18	2	$810	407	407	+0	Yes	+$3	02-18 04:04
bitcoin above 76k on february 11	2	$801	401	401	+0	No	+$0	02-11 12:13
bitcoin above 88k on february 5	2	$788	395	395	+0	No	+$0	02-05 01:13
bitcoin above 88k on february 3	2	$786	394	394	+0	No	+$0	02-03 11:43
bitcoin above 90k on february 1	2	$783	393	393	+0	No	+$2	02-01 10:50
bitcoin above 94k on january 31	2	$782	392	392	+0	No	+$0	01-31 14:53
bitcoin above 94k on january 30	2	$778	391	391	+0	No	+$3	01-30 05:29
bitcoin above 94k on january 28	2	$772	388	388	+0	No	+$3	01-28 06:35
bitcoin above 94k on january 27	2	$769	386	386	+0	No	+$2	01-27 15:16
bitcoin above 100k on january 18	2	$759	380	380	+0	No	+$1	01-18 10:45
bitcoin above 96k on january 13	2	$745	378	378	+0	No	+$9	01-13 04:36
bitcoin above 96k on january 6	8	$726	372	365	+7	No	+$2	01-06 11:48
bitcoin above 74k on february 10	3	$581	293	293	+0	No	+$4	02-10 13:04
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 7?	1	$524	525	0	+525	Yes	+$1	10-06 02:14
will ethereum dip to 2000 september 28 october 4 2026	1	$523	525	0	+525	No	+$2	10-02 03:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-08 15:00:12	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x0b8bda…
11-08 14:59:01	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x2c82ea…
11-08 14:57:31	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xc21856…
11-08 14:37:25	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	BUY	87	98¢	$86	0xe6ad84…
11-07 14:51:57	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	SELL	104	100¢	$104	0x76f0ce…
11-05 02:26:34	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	BUY	104	98¢	$102	0xe6821a…
11-04 23:34:22	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	SELL	102	100¢	$102	0x96c818…
11-04 11:41:57	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x94a6dc…
11-04 10:25:36	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	89	99¢	$88	0x0665c8…
11-03 14:01:00	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	102	100¢	$101	0x927686…
10-31 11:50:18	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xc10fc8…
10-29 15:30:14	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	76	98¢	$75	0xaa79fd…
10-29 14:24:01	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	91	98¢	$89	0x2933f0…
10-26 14:24:23	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	164	98¢	$160	0xe263b7…
10-26 13:48:48	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	162	99¢	$160	0x78da46…
10-26 01:27:26	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	62	98¢	$61	0x102a3b…
10-26 01:27:11	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x39c0e9…
10-25 14:52:42	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	No	BUY	159	99¢	$157	0x97d791…
10-24 07:34:00	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	158	100¢	$157	0xa737b6…
10-22 06:20:20	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	157	99¢	$156	0x10b2ad…
10-16 00:57:33	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	156	99¢	$154	0x4913ae…
10-15 13:55:16	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	155	98¢	$152	0x7aa86b…
10-15 13:52:20	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	SELL	153	100¢	$153	0xcf678b…
10-15 07:10:38	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	153	99¢	$152	0xd317ab…
10-13 14:04:13	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	152	100¢	$151	0x30e877…
10-13 06:17:19	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x57e2bd…
10-10 00:36:29	Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 October 5-11?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0xa4b5b6…
10-06 02:14:08	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 7?	Yes	BUY	525	100¢	$524	0x68b0c4…
10-02 03:27:05	will ethereum dip to 2000 september 28 october 4 2026	No	BUY	525	100¢	$523	0xa203fa…
09-26 02:14:39	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in September?	No	BUY	523	100¢	$521	0x62daf7…
09-24 00:06:14	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 25?	Yes	BUY	521	100¢	$520	0xa23534…
09-21 10:24:41	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 22?	Yes	BUY	521	100¢	$520	0xba12f7…
09-19 00:02:46	Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 September 14-20?	No	BUY	520	100¢	$519	0x68708b…
09-17 03:41:51	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 18?	Yes	BUY	519	100¢	$518	0x6c1d9c…
09-14 13:57:43	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 15?	Yes	BUY	408	100¢	$407	0x0ca84a…
09-14 13:53:12	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 15?	Yes	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0xe25abe…
09-14 01:27:36	Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 September 7-13?	No	BUY	517	100¢	$516	0xcb77ae…
09-11 14:25:43	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 12?	Yes	BUY	416	100¢	$414	0x49578b…
09-11 14:15:58	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 12?	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xd827e3…
09-08 23:59:15	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on September 9?	Yes	BUY	515	100¢	$514	0xbc9b62…
09-07 14:25:57	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 8?	Yes	SELL	516	100¢	$514	0xab81ae…
09-07 00:25:21	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 8?	Yes	BUY	516	100¢	$515	0xfa1d28…
09-05 01:54:46	Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on September 6?	No	BUY	54	100¢	$54	0xbd7d1b…
09-05 01:54:33	Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,000 on September 6?	No	BUY	44	100¢	$44	0x33fedf…
09-05 01:54:07	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on September 6?	Yes	BUY	149	100¢	$149	0xe5b683…
09-05 00:28:34	Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $70,000 on September 6?	No	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0x4f996a…
09-05 00:26:36	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on September 6?	Yes	BUY	140	100¢	$140	0xa002b6…
09-03 12:55:16	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 4?	Yes	BUY	515	100¢	$514	0x89f025…
08-31 13:15:18	will bitcoin dip to 67pt5k in august 2026	No	BUY	514	100¢	$513	0x014cac…
08-27 23:53:48	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 29?	Yes	BUY	513	100¢	$512	0x45e8f3…
08-22 04:18:45	bitcoin above 72k on august 22 2026	Yes	BUY	513	100¢	$511	0xe7eae4…
08-21 10:08:51	bitcoin above 72k on august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	115	99¢	$114	0xa5d579…
08-21 09:57:57	bitcoin above 72k on august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x51bb21…
08-21 09:55:15	bitcoin above 72k on august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	390	99¢	$387	0x303e8b…
08-19 13:20:30	ethereum above 1800 on august 20 2026	Yes	BUY	506	99¢	$502	0xf4805c…
08-18 01:15:19	ethereum above 1700 on august 18 2026	Yes	BUY	504	100¢	$503	0x044fc3…
08-17 05:56:25	ethereum above 1700 on august 17 2026	Yes	BUY	503	100¢	$502	0x87f468…
08-14 09:11:39	will ethereum reach 2100 august 10 16 2026	No	BUY	502	100¢	$500	0x450563…
08-13 08:58:46	ethereum above 1700 on august 13 2026	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$500	0x069dbf…
08-12 00:40:27	ethereum above 1700 on august 12 2026	Yes	BUY	499	100¢	$499	0xb44331…
08-11 09:19:40	ethereum above 1700 on august 11 2026	Yes	BUY	499	100¢	$499	0x92f68e…
08-07 01:26:28	will bitcoin reach 72k august 3 9 2026	No	BUY	499	100¢	$498	0x8b3216…
08-06 06:14:54	ethereum above 1700 on august 6 2026	Yes	BUY	497	100¢	$497	0x5e67f6…
08-05 05:44:02	ethereum above 1700 on august 5 2026	Yes	BUY	497	100¢	$497	0x20a41e…
08-03 13:36:44	ethereum above 2000 on august 4 2026	No	BUY	497	100¢	$495	0x10cdd0…
08-01 23:45:09	will ethereum reach 2100 july 27 august 2 2026	No	BUY	495	100¢	$493	0x311c99…
08-01 07:14:27	ethereum above 1700 on august 1 2026	Yes	BUY	322	100¢	$321	0xb25bd9…
08-01 07:13:42	ethereum above 1700 on august 1 2026	Yes	BUY	171	100¢	$170	0x401540…
07-30 00:04:35	will ethereum reach 2200 in july 2026	No	BUY	491	100¢	$489	0x98551e…
07-27 23:53:49	bitcoin above 68k on july 28 2026	No	BUY	489	100¢	$488	0x663239…
07-25 23:55:04	ethereum above 1700 on july 27 2026	Yes	BUY	488	100¢	$486	0xd990ad…
07-23 00:25:57	bitcoin above 72k on july 24 2026	No	BUY	486	100¢	$485	0xc4877e…
07-21 04:50:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 21?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x7b9617…
07-21 03:27:22	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 21?	No	BUY	62	100¢	$62	0xcd0c8c…
07-21 02:56:55	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 21?	No	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0x8801be…
07-21 02:54:49	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 21?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x786277…
07-21 02:09:19	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 21?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x444bcf…
07-21 01:41:21	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 21?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xb3a686…
07-21 01:16:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 21?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$24	0xbc7ab5…
07-21 00:31:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 21?	No	BUY	47	100¢	$47	0x15509b…
07-21 00:00:57	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 21?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x674686…
07-20 22:32:06	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on July 21?	No	BUY	197	100¢	$197	0x86f4d8…
07-20 04:29:04	Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on July 20?	No	BUY	484	100¢	$483	0xf9db4e…
07-18 04:29:18	will ethereum reach 2200 july 13 19 2026	No	BUY	483	100¢	$482	0xcab0a3…
07-16 13:48:44	ethereum above 1700 on july 17 2026	Yes	BUY	482	99¢	$479	0x5aee8f…
07-13 23:41:53	bitcoin above 68k on july 15 2026	No	BUY	479	100¢	$478	0x711d01…
07-13 04:47:25	will ethereum dip to 1200 in july 2026 853	No	SELL	489	98¢	$478	0x99976c…
07-08 15:11:58	will ethereum dip to 1200 in july 2026 853	No	BUY	489	96¢	$472	0x9f4a6c…
07-06 01:33:01	bitcoin above 56k on july 7 2026	Yes	BUY	473	100¢	$472	0x7ca446…
07-02 00:18:47	ethereum above 1400 on july 3 2026	Yes	BUY	472	100¢	$471	0x1fc0f7…
07-01 00:46:44	ethereum above 1700 on july 1 2026	No	BUY	471	99¢	$468	0xd0d3ac…
06-29 10:47:20	ethereum above 1400 on june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	468	99¢	$462	0xc0f835…
06-28 00:56:28	will bitcoin reach 66k june 22 28 2026	No	BUY	463	100¢	$461	0x306062…
06-27 05:41:11	bitcoin above 56k on june 27 2026	Yes	SELL	462	100¢	$461	0x78c0a2…
06-26 23:40:53	bitcoin above 56k on june 27 2026	Yes	BUY	462	99¢	$457	0x66caa4…
06-26 11:03:05	bitcoin above 64k on june 26 2026	No	SELL	458	100¢	$457	0x285689…
06-26 00:00:23	bitcoin above 64k on june 26 2026	No	BUY	458	99¢	$455	0x986b8e…
06-25 00:44:23	bitcoin above 64k on june 25 2026	No	BUY	456	99¢	$452	0x7f5464…
06-24 23:59:02	will bitcoin reach 85k in june 2026	No	SELL	453	100¢	$452	0x19267c…
06-20 00:26:52	will bitcoin reach 85k in june 2026	No	BUY	453	99¢	$450	0x286095…