Confused-Secretion — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$138

Unrealized P&L

-$10

Hit rate

61.6%

Resolved

500

Trades

1,344

lifetime

Volume

$5.72K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$40

5 positions

First seen

2026-02-19

last 08-16 00:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 86 days

Categories

Other

68% 34% +$110

Politics

19% 62% -$51

Sports

11% 15% -$172

Crypto

2% 42% -$28

Tech

0% 50% +$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 43 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	-40	-$26	81¢	$-33	-$7	04-29 06:03
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?	Yes	-36	-$10	18¢	$-6	+$3	05-14 05:49
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	+250	$2	0¢	$0	-$2	05-15 13:04
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+250	$2	0¢	$0	-$2	05-15 08:05
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	+111	$2	0¢	$0	-$2	05-15 16:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18?	12	$155	84	84	+0	Yes	+$5	06-18 06:36
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 7?	8	$145	88	88	+0	Yes	+$29	08-07 17:48
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	3	$141	76	76	+0	Yes	+$0	06-18 14:35
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?	7	$141	90	90	-0	Yes	+$35	06-18 04:33
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	9	$135	118	118	+0	Yes	+$92	08-11 15:15
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	6	$132	86	86	+0	Yes	+$30	08-07 14:18
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open?	4	$127	90	90	+0	No	+$1	05-24 13:46
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	3	$104	82	82	+0	open	—	06-18 04:35
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 6?	10	$91	72	62	+10	Yes	+$36	08-06 16:37
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	12	$88	47	47	-0	open	—	05-18 15:38
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?	5	$78	62	62	+0	Yes	+$40	07-31 15:11
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?	7	$74	45	45	+0	Yes	+$15	08-08 15:08
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?	2	$72	38	38	+0	Yes	+$0	06-19 06:02
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?	36	$70	3,655	3,655	+0	No	+$4	05-18 20:46
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	1	$66	120	0	+120	Yes	+$54	07-03 09:55
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?	6	$60	49	49	+0	Yes	+$33	08-15 15:12
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?	3	$59	40	40	+0	Yes	+$15	08-01 14:50
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	12	$52	63	63	+0	No	-$4	06-11 12:52
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%?	1	$52	72	0	+72	No	-$52	08-14 04:51
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	3	$50	257	137	+120	No	-$19	07-03 07:35
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	5	$47	101	0	+101	No	-$47	06-23 12:48
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$46	176	176	+0	No	+$28	06-18 04:35
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 31?	4	$46	34	34	+0	Yes	+$21	07-31 18:26
nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	1	$45	46	0	+46	No	+$1	08-15 16:32
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$45	32	32	+0	Yes	+$8	06-11 12:52
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on July 29?	1	$42	59	0	+59	Yes	+$17	07-29 14:04
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?	11	$42	116	0	+116	No	-$42	06-09 03:54
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 The Open Championship?	2	$41	103	0	+103	No	-$41	07-19 12:08
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?	5	$40	61	0	+61	No	-$40	08-14 23:19
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	5	$37	118	0	+118	No	-$37	08-08 16:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-16 00:33:52	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	21¢	$3	0xbf0e56…
08-15 16:32:54	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	BUY	46	98¢	$45	0x2edc10…
08-15 15:12:30	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	49	96¢	$47	0x5882a9…
08-15 13:09:28	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	33¢	$4	0xd95912…
08-15 13:03:54	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	33¢	$0	0x34730b…
08-15 09:14:18	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0xbac9ba…
08-15 08:54:01	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	24¢	$3	0xd216c7…
08-15 08:18:00	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 15?	Yes	SELL	8	97¢	$8	0xb194f7…
08-15 08:12:03	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	8	46¢	$4	0xdca376…
08-15 07:30:01	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	8	92¢	$7	0xe90d8b…
08-15 07:27:18	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 15?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xb61bdb…
08-15 07:17:09	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 15?	Yes	SELL	10	95¢	$9	0x3d08a8…
08-15 06:27:55	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	8	22¢	$2	0x3a910a…
08-15 05:45:54	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 15?	Yes	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0xcb044f…
08-15 04:26:01	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0x377a7f…
08-15 02:51:12	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x64816a…
08-15 01:52:22	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	30¢	$3	0xbed147…
08-15 01:52:22	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x1d7b7f…
08-15 01:51:27	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	33¢	$5	0x9f2268…
08-15 01:13:42	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	11	23¢	$2	0x981353…
08-15 00:32:57	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	11	15¢	$2	0x179924…
08-15 00:26:07	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x9b2e72…
08-15 00:25:42	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0xc6b86f…
08-15 00:25:01	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	11	11¢	$1	0xe56716…
08-14 23:19:34	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	63¢	$9	0x314e55…
08-14 22:31:16	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	62¢	$7	0x82231e…
08-14 21:46:21	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	62¢	$4	0xd9be5a…
08-14 18:32:43	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	12¢	$1	0x78bc62…
08-14 18:30:16	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	16¢	$1	0x8c2e1e…
08-14 18:30:16	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	69¢	$6	0x84fa0e…
08-14 18:16:49	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	12¢	$0	0x673747…
08-14 17:57:27	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	12¢	$2	0x6811b8…
08-14 15:38:46	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	2	10¢	$0	0xf9eecc…
08-14 15:38:12	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	13	10¢	$1	0x12ac6a…
08-14 15:06:28	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	17	97¢	$16	0x68e2cf…
08-14 12:54:46	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xc10371…
08-14 12:54:46	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	3	22¢	$1	0x9c5ae4…
08-14 12:41:31	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	2	23¢	$1	0x5e6d60…
08-14 12:00:30	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	0	23¢	$0	0x037da1…
08-14 12:00:28	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x89e8f6…
08-14 11:57:46	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	5	70¢	$3	0xc88257…
08-14 11:56:54	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xe82fc0…
08-14 09:39:24	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	4	58¢	$2	0x5640bb…
08-14 09:34:30	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	13	58¢	$8	0xc04c53…
08-14 07:35:51	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	1	27¢	$0	0x31d94e…
08-14 07:34:34	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	16	27¢	$4	0xdbaf59…
08-14 07:30:03	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xc08d91…
08-14 06:17:48	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	19	97¢	$18	0x8d7de0…
08-14 05:05:03	Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?	Yes	BUY	29	6¢	$2	0xdc2254…
08-14 05:05:03	Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by less than 20%?	Yes	BUY	72	1¢	$1	0xbd8cc2…
08-14 05:04:58	Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?	Yes	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0xd3f2e2…
08-14 05:04:58	Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?	Yes	BUY	28	6¢	$2	0x9ea445…
08-14 05:04:58	Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x4a6078…
08-14 04:55:37	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	24	93¢	$22	0x476854…
08-14 04:51:00	Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%?	Yes	BUY	72	72¢	$52	0xe330df…
08-14 04:49:43	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	27¢	$2	0x01448e…
08-14 04:47:40	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	19	74¢	$14	0x57013f…
08-14 04:43:13	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	19	19¢	$4	0xcb728d…
08-14 03:59:13	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x2bb975…
08-14 03:59:12	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	3	25¢	$1	0x88c2fe…
08-14 03:59:12	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0x6a62b1…
08-14 03:58:19	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	3	25¢	$1	0xb1be08…
08-14 03:49:39	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x2d77b6…
08-11 15:15:46	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x3181a3…
08-11 15:15:37	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	83	96¢	$79	0xb0d11d…
08-11 15:15:37	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	96¢	$34	0x9531aa…
08-09 15:46:15	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 9?	Yes	SELL	3	95¢	$3	0x249f2d…
08-09 15:36:15	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 9?	Yes	SELL	11	93¢	$10	0x3acd81…
08-09 07:55:18	Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?	Yes	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x2ba6b7…
08-09 07:42:31	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	14	40¢	$6	0x4c9ed7…
08-09 07:05:01	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 9?	Yes	SELL	3	93¢	$3	0x5b4814…
08-09 05:19:57	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	1	47¢	$1	0x432932…
08-09 05:19:54	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xaba413…
08-09 05:17:09	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	13	13¢	$2	0x2da118…
08-09 04:18:12	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x335722…
08-09 04:17:55	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0x395b3f…
08-09 04:14:09	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	4	30¢	$1	0x3a361a…
08-09 04:12:43	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	0	36¢	$0	0x9ddf17…
08-09 04:12:33	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	7	36¢	$2	0x8a4591…
08-09 04:02:46	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0xfe78ba…
08-09 04:00:57	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0x847432…
08-09 03:55:49	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x6fc384…
08-09 03:53:25	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	1	13¢	$0	0xcceb61…
08-09 03:53:25	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0xc9ade9…
08-09 03:44:07	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 9?	Yes	SELL	17	94¢	$16	0xb39ac0…
08-09 01:29:09	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x4e6140…
08-09 01:10:45	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	4¢	$1	0xcc60f1…
08-09 00:34:46	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	3	18¢	$0	0x0ca536…
08-09 00:33:49	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	4	18¢	$1	0x4c5a66…
08-08 23:28:42	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0x9e8295…
08-08 23:23:30	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x926541…
08-08 23:22:12	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x380b9a…
08-08 19:05:45	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0x8a760a…
08-08 18:57:30	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	12¢	$3	0x57cbeb…
08-08 18:49:18	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	0	37¢	$0	0x75ae3b…
08-08 16:24:43	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	11¢	$2	0xb05663…
08-08 16:04:45	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	8	34¢	$3	0xd73d87…
08-08 16:04:45	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x36dacf…
08-08 16:01:16	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	31¢	$7	0x5ee310…
08-08 16:00:04	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	31¢	$7	0xe65467…