Hard-Campaign — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$438

Unrealized P&L

+$305

Hit rate

91.6%

Resolved

Trades

382

lifetime

Volume

$149.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$391

Open exposure

$1.59K

1 position

First seen

2026-01-08

last 06-12 06:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

49% 100% +$500

Politics

39% 0% $-62

Sports

7% — —

Crypto

4% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No		+2,321	$1,285	68¢	$1.6K	+$305	06-12 06:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	7	$16.6K	12,831	12,831	+0	open	—	04-07 19:48
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	12	$15.7K	10,008	10,008	+0	open	—	03-29 20:01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	3	$10.7K	7,021	6,973	+48	open	—	04-14 14:28
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$7.0K	2,613	5,079	-2,466	open	—	06-01 11:15
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	5	$6.2K	9,753	9,753	+0	open	—	02-28 21:51
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	5	$4.9K	2,900	2,900	+0	open	—	02-28 17:16
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	8	$4.7K	8,132	8,132	+0	open	—	02-28 22:25
us x iran meeting by february 6 2026	3	$4.6K	3,487	3,487	+0	open	—	02-06 09:22
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 8 million	4	$4.3K	2,952	2,952	+0	open	—	02-15 21:44
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	2	$3.2K	2,090	2,090	+0	open	—	03-07 10:47
will witkoff meet with iranian officials by february 28	3	$3.1K	2,522	2,522	+0	open	—	02-04 18:44
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 12 million 218	3	$3.1K	4,755	312	+4,443	open	—	02-15 22:47
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	5	$3.1K	6,406	6,258	+148	open	—	04-29 07:10
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	9	$3.0K	3,243	3,243	+0	open	—	05-28 14:13
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	2	$3.0K	2,075	2,075	+0	open	—	05-26 09:17
new stranger things episode released by january 31 294	3	$3.0K	1,536	1,536	+0	open	—	01-19 15:32
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	1	$2.3K	2,880	0	+2,880	open	—	05-14 00:18
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	5	$2.3K	4,011	791	+3,219	open	—	01-30 22:37
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	4	$2.2K	2,282	2,282	+0	open	—	01-30 17:35
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	2	$2.1K	1,786	1,786	+0	open	—	05-18 13:52
will solana reach 150 in january 2026	2	$2.1K	1,119	1,119	+0	open	—	01-29 09:30
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	8	$2.0K	2,097	2,000	+97	open	—	03-31 16:43
us strikes iran by february 21 2026	2	$1.8K	2,124	0	+2,124	open	—	02-19 10:22
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	1	$1.8K	1,863	0	+1,863	open	—	02-09 21:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	3	$1.8K	2,821	500	+2,321	open	—	06-12 06:59
us strikes iran by january 30 2026 273 584 555 114 476	1	$1.7K	1,828	0	+1,828	open	—	01-30 12:38
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	2	$1.7K	2,773	2,773	+0	open	—	03-04 15:24
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	2	$1.6K	2,443	0	+2,443	open	—	04-16 08:28
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	1	$1.5K	2,000	0	+2,000	Yes	+$500	05-09 09:54
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	3	$1.5K	2,120	2,120	+0	open	—	06-12 06:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-12 06:59:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	2,321	56¢	$1,300	0x995ece…
06-12 06:53:15	will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	Yes	SELL	2,120	23¢	$480	0xe0df3e…
06-09 13:09:19	will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	Yes	BUY	1,238	40¢	$500	0x3c9ba8…
06-04 11:23:06	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	1,025	39¢	$395	0xec80d1…
06-04 07:32:12	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05	Spurs	BUY	1,515	66¢	$1,000	0xa8cfa2…
06-01 14:54:07	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	1,025	49¢	$500	0x9fe58f…
06-01 11:16:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	Yes	BUY	882	57¢	$500	0x0c892c…
06-01 11:15:11	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5,079	100¢	$5,074	0xe30c52…
05-30 14:53:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	500	47¢	$235	0xbdd524…
05-28 14:13:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	SELL	118	25¢	$30	0x5905ab…
05-28 14:13:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	SELL	612	25¢	$153	0xd476fd…
05-28 14:13:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	SELL	104	25¢	$26	0xcde8f3…
05-28 12:19:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	500	44¢	$220	0xb1b83a…
05-28 10:41:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	SELL	5	25¢	$1	0xaaf0c2…
05-28 10:37:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	SELL	11	25¢	$3	0xdbb259…
05-28 10:14:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	SELL	864	25¢	$216	0x8a5a59…
05-27 09:26:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	BUY	1,715	46¢	$792	0x954c3d…
05-27 09:23:27	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	SELL	1,528	54¢	$825	0x7c7afa…
05-26 09:28:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,613	75¢	$1,960	0x01144e…
05-26 09:17:37	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	SELL	2,075	93¢	$1,920	0xb90437…
05-24 18:31:33	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	BUY	1,528	65¢	$1,000	0xc1398c…
05-20 14:01:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	BUY	2,075	53¢	$1,100	0x7b32e6…
05-18 13:52:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	SELL	1,786	64¢	$1,148	0x24264d…
05-14 00:18:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	Yes	BUY	2,880	81¢	$2,340	0xf4dce6…
05-09 09:54:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	BUY	2,000	75¢	$1,500	0x457b7b…
05-09 09:54:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	1,786	56¢	$1,000	0xdcaeea…
04-29 07:11:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?	Yes	SELL	1,443	1¢	$13	0xea752d…
04-29 07:10:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	Yes	SELL	6,258	6¢	$377	0x5989d2…
04-28 12:37:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	Yes	SELL	281	39¢	$111	0x4ba42b…
04-16 08:28:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	BUY	126	49¢	$61	0x6fa527…
04-16 08:28:22	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	417	9¢	$37	0xe2bd6c…
04-15 07:33:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	Yes	BUY	289	34¢	$98	0xbf5de2…
04-14 22:07:34	nba mia cha 2026 04 14	Heat	BUY	2,258	31¢	$700	0xcc2291…
04-14 19:59:36	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	BUY	2,318	66¢	$1,527	0x4a8bf1…
04-14 19:58:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	Yes	BUY	1,101	27¢	$300	0x893486…
04-14 16:17:43	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	Yes	BUY	1,671	30¢	$500	0x94c3bc…
04-14 14:30:43	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?	Yes	BUY	741	27¢	$200	0x7cbc56…
04-14 14:30:17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	Yes	BUY	2,487	40¢	$1,000	0x9d5328…
04-14 14:28:17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	Yes	SELL	4,473	79¢	$3,556	0x5420c1…
04-13 09:05:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?	Yes	BUY	738	52¢	$383	0x836466…
04-13 09:05:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	Yes	BUY	1,147	78¢	$900	0xcde5e0…
04-13 09:02:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	Yes	SELL	2,500	52¢	$1,308	0xa123d1…
04-08 06:21:03	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	Yes	BUY	7,021	83¢	$5,811	0xd7297a…
04-08 05:18:01	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	SELL	211	100¢	$210	0x995de7…
04-07 22:23:33	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	SELL	600	34¢	$205	0xfc6796…
04-07 21:48:03	trump announces hormuz deadline extension today	No	BUY	1,372	36¢	$500	0x5afafa…
04-07 21:47:43	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	BUY	1,587	63¢	$1,000	0x9f48bf…
04-07 21:47:13	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	BUY	811	37¢	$300	0x14cbcb…
04-07 19:48:55	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	4,385	100¢	$4,363	0x98cdc7…
04-06 07:02:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	Yes	SELL	509	25¢	$127	0xe8b473…
04-06 07:02:33	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	Yes	SELL	804	16¢	$129	0x57009c…
04-03 20:14:43	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1,400	76¢	$1,064	0x22d1c3…
04-03 07:43:43	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	2,985	67¢	$2,000	0x0b350e…
04-02 13:11:27	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	Yes	BUY	833	12¢	$100	0x7f31d3…
04-02 13:11:19	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	Yes	BUY	526	19¢	$100	0x722058…
04-02 10:01:11	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	No	BUY	6,372	16¢	$1,000	0x0e18a0…
04-01 21:37:15	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	8,446	53¢	$4,477	0xf947a4…
03-31 18:33:19	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	3,448	58¢	$2,000	0xc5500b…
03-31 16:43:23	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	No	BUY	97	92¢	$89	0x040ead…
03-31 16:17:29	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	Yes	SELL	5,503	1¢	$30	0xc36c2e…
03-31 16:12:59	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	Yes	SELL	941	39¢	$367	0x4ead42…
03-31 16:12:47	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	Yes	SELL	256	39¢	$100	0x294d5b…
03-31 16:12:45	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	Yes	SELL	63	39¢	$25	0xb213eb…
03-31 16:12:45	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	Yes	SELL	127	39¢	$50	0x9d2fb6…
03-31 16:12:43	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	Yes	SELL	613	40¢	$245	0xfa9ba9…
03-31 06:04:59	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	Yes	BUY	1,783	6¢	$100	0x262364…
03-31 00:48:31	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	Yes	BUY	810	55¢	$446	0x08d345…
03-31 00:48:27	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	Yes	BUY	1,190	55¢	$654	0xff658e…
03-30 23:45:27	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	Yes	BUY	3,720	22¢	$800	0xcfa148…
03-29 20:01:36	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	SELL	4,644	85¢	$3,947	0x027601…
03-28 11:17:45	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	3,145	53¢	$1,667	0xea5d87…
03-25 09:38:57	will crude oil cl hit high 90 by end of march 947	Yes	BUY	1,667	72¢	$1,200	0xc64c92…
03-24 15:28:05	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1,853	54¢	$1,000	0x720514…
03-23 13:21:25	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	1,298	39¢	$500	0x695a20…
03-23 11:54:31	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	3,346	60¢	$2,000	0x9c3934…
03-23 06:43:43	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	SELL	2,289	85¢	$1,945	0xd3fc8b…
03-23 06:41:39	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	SELL	14	85¢	$12	0xa9b2e1…
03-23 06:40:37	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	SELL	51	85¢	$44	0xfcbbe5…
03-23 06:29:01	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	SELL	156	85¢	$133	0x98010f…
03-23 06:26:03	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	SELL	1,479	85¢	$1,257	0xa6abc4…
03-22 22:03:19	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	SELL	1,375	85¢	$1,168	0xe9000c…
03-21 11:19:13	netanyahu out by march 31 854	Yes	SELL	7,489	1¢	$83	0x3e6687…
03-19 18:36:35	netanyahu out by march 31 854	Yes	BUY	3,712	3¢	$100	0x441dec…
03-19 18:36:03	netanyahu out by march 31 854	Yes	BUY	3,778	3¢	$100	0xae51a3…
03-16 18:47:03	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	1,871	79¢	$1,474	0x84dae0…
03-15 16:00:39	will hamnet win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	2,988	2¢	$49	0x7ad28c…
03-15 15:44:51	will sarah knafo win the paris mayor election	Yes	SELL	1,211	1¢	$6	0x07d3c0…
03-10 13:04:43	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	433	67¢	$288	0x4523db…
03-09 09:56:09	us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	Yes	SELL	250	35¢	$88	0x3031d0…
03-09 08:45:27	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	3,060	95¢	$2,902	0xc73f77…
03-07 10:47:11	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	SELL	2,090	96¢	$2,013	0xc80d1b…
03-04 15:24:17	will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	Yes	SELL	2,773	25¢	$701	0x66e8c6…
03-04 14:01:55	will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 7 339 656	No	SELL	151	82¢	$123	0xd15a88…
03-03 18:46:45	Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	279	5¢	$13	0xeae640…
03-03 18:46:17	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 15 153 144 999 648 116 955 829 149	No	SELL	356	16¢	$57	0x2e5853…
03-03 18:45:59	Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	447	7¢	$33	0x650c93…
03-03 18:27:01	will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 7 339 656	No	BUY	151	66¢	$100	0x8fab78…
03-03 14:51:49	Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	394	12¢	$46	0xf3b8db…
03-03 14:36:27	will rachida dati win the paris mayor election	Yes	SELL	256	38¢	$97	0x0a15d9…
03-03 14:33:05	Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	3,030	3¢	$94	0xc6fd63…