First-Macaroni — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$444

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

46.4%

Resolved

1,657

Trades

2,824

lifetime

Volume

$11.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-16

last 10-23 11:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 115 days

Categories

Other

99% 46% -$436

Crypto

1% 100% +$2

Sports

0% 0% -$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
lol dk dnf 2026 02 20 game1	90	$230	449	0	+449	Dplus KIA	-$7	02-20 08:33
elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 240 259	100	$226	426	23	+403	Yes	-$3	02-17 14:53
spx up or down on february 17 2026	46	$113	216	8	+208	Up	-$20	02-17 15:34
dota2 liquid ty 2026 02 17 game1	17	$88	77	85	-8	Team Liquid	+$4	02-17 14:06
dota2 liquid ty 2026 02 17 game2	31	$76	140	26	+114	Team Liquid	-$6	02-17 13:52
dota2 liquid ty 2026 02 17	30	$71	128	30	+98	Team Liquid	-$5	02-17 14:06
cs2 faze ast10 2026 02 17 game2	24	$70	216	0	+216	Astralis	-$70	02-17 11:46
highest temperature in munich on march 24 2026 15c	6	$58	63	0	+63	Yes	-$58	03-24 13:25
highest temperature in london on march 23 2026 16c	6	$48	57	0	+57	No	+$10	03-23 13:12
cs2 mouz fut 2026 02 17	16	$45	90	107	-18	MOUZ	+$3	02-17 11:35
solana up or down on february 17	12	$45	50	20	+30	Up	+$0	02-17 15:52
highest temperature in nyc on march 24 2026 48 49f	9	$43	31	31	+0	Yes	-$1	03-24 16:31
highest temperature in munich on april 17 2026 21c	2	$36	44	0	+44	No	+$8	04-17 12:30
highest temperature in atlanta on april 17 2026 90 91f	2	$36	41	0	+41	No	+$6	04-17 18:00
xrp up or down february 16 1am et	9	$32	30	30	+0	Up	+$1	02-16 06:23
highest temperature in toronto on april 12 2026 10c	1	$20	22	0	+22	No	+$2	04-12 19:26
highest temperature in atlanta on april 15 2026 86 87f	1	$20	30	0	+30	No	+$10	04-15 18:31
highest temperature in chicago on april 15 2026 72 73f	1	$20	31	0	+31	Yes	-$20	04-15 19:02
highest temperature in sao paulo on april 15 2026 27c	1	$20	29	0	+29	Yes	-$20	04-15 16:01
highest temperature in atlanta on april 21 2026 80 81f	1	$20	24	0	+24	No	+$4	04-21 18:13
highest temperature in munich on april 12 2026 13c	1	$20	24	0	+24	No	+$4	04-12 12:02
highest temperature in miami on april 12 2026 82 83f	1	$20	24	0	+24	No	+$4	04-12 17:10
highest temperature in ankara on april 13 2026 13c	1	$20	22	0	+22	No	+$2	04-13 10:18
highest temperature in paris on april 20 2026 17c	1	$20	22	0	+22	No	+$2	04-20 13:36
highest temperature in buenos aires on april 12 2026 26c	1	$20	33	0	+33	Yes	-$20	04-12 17:55
highest temperature in toronto on april 12 2026 9c	2	$20	26	0	+26	No	+$6	04-12 20:46
highest temperature in munich on april 15 2026 14c	1	$20	22	0	+22	No	+$2	04-15 14:01
highest temperature in london on april 15 2026 18c	1	$20	27	0	+27	No	+$7	04-15 13:00
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 22?	3	$20	49	0	+49	Yes	-$20	06-22 15:02
highest temperature in wellington on april 15 2026 19c	1	$20	21	0	+21	No	+$2	04-15 02:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-23 11:11:14	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0xb73b56…
10-23 11:09:00	Clippers vs. Lakers	Clippers	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0xf8244b…
08-23 04:07:52	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on August 23?	No	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xa0c65a…
08-23 04:07:52	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on August 23?	No	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x4b96f7…
08-22 14:57:45	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 22?	No	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xd8371c…
08-22 10:06:46	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on August 22?	No	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0xd2413e…
08-22 07:31:16	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on August 22?	No	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0xbb919b…
08-22 07:06:15	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on August 22?	No	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x493ccf…
08-22 03:10:18	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on August 22?	No	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0xd6c9f7…
08-22 03:10:18	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 35°C on August 22?	No	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xc657ba…
08-21 16:12:09	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 21?	No	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x21e4f6…
08-21 12:15:58	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on August 21?	No	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x3c7b69…
08-21 09:40:43	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on August 21?	No	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xe6f069…
08-21 02:45:10	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on August 21?	No	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x36163a…
08-20 05:04:31	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on August 20?	No	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xc9d6bd…
08-20 04:54:30	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C or higher on August 20?	No	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xe3615c…
08-20 04:24:22	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on August 20?	No	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x1b4f72…
08-20 03:24:06	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 20?	No	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xb2c08b…
08-20 02:49:03	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on August 20?	No	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x283247…
08-20 00:48:31	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 20?	No	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xfa470b…
08-19 21:22:22	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on August 20?	No	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x4ed401…
08-19 16:51:12	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on August 19?	No	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xc780a7…
08-19 11:24:28	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on August 19?	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x1645fa…
08-19 06:03:43	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on August 19?	No	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xac3dcf…
08-19 03:43:34	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 19?	No	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x092f34…
08-19 03:43:24	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 19?	No	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0xb47a8a…
08-18 10:26:24	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on August 18?	No	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x8dbbc7…
08-18 09:51:22	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on August 18?	No	BUY	3	46¢	$1	0x47714d…
08-18 09:51:12	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on August 18?	No	BUY	8	46¢	$4	0x1c332a…
08-18 09:41:10	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on August 18?	No	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x5d85e0…
08-18 06:20:55	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on August 18?	No	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xa4f904…
08-18 04:05:42	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 18?	No	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xe25dc3…
08-18 01:40:33	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 18?	No	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x753031…
08-17 22:40:15	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 18?	No	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xf4a664…
08-11 06:48:10	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on August 11?	No	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0xa7ab23…
08-11 00:57:40	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 11?	No	BUY	3	46¢	$1	0xc6246c…
08-11 00:57:30	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 11?	No	BUY	8	45¢	$4	0x158343…
08-10 22:31:45	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on August 11?	No	BUY	13	37¢	$5	0x6d1540…
08-10 05:18:18	Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 10?	No	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xc3ca57…
08-10 04:58:15	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on August 10?	No	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x7d5cae…
08-10 04:48:13	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on August 10?	No	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x388619…
08-10 04:13:07	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 10?	No	BUY	4	39¢	$1	0xd1ca9f…
08-10 04:12:57	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 10?	No	BUY	9	38¢	$4	0xf8e03e…
08-10 03:42:49	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 10?	No	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x67ce1f…
08-10 03:12:46	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on August 10?	No	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x244e99…
08-10 03:12:46	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on August 10?	No	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x0bd110…
08-10 02:42:37	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on August 10?	No	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xfffb78…
08-10 02:42:37	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on August 10?	No	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x079546…
08-10 02:17:25	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 10?	No	BUY	8	39¢	$3	0x1dda97…
08-10 02:12:24	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 10?	No	BUY	10	25¢	$3	0xdad937…
08-10 02:12:13	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 10?	No	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0x9658f3…
08-09 10:19:09	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on August 9?	No	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xb581a7…
08-09 10:18:58	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on August 9?	No	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0x653bf2…
08-09 07:13:31	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 9?	No	BUY	5	51¢	$2	0x22e5ea…
08-09 07:13:22	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 9?	No	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x49ae5b…
08-09 05:17:49	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on August 9?	No	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x908cb7…
08-09 04:57:37	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 9?	No	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x1121f7…
08-09 04:47:34	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on August 9?	No	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x5feca5…
08-09 04:47:34	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 9?	No	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x2ec8a6…
08-09 04:17:33	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on August 9?	No	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x3abcf7…
08-09 04:17:31	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on August 9?	No	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xf5cd4d…
08-09 03:27:13	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 9?	No	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x983ad8…
08-08 22:15:33	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on August 9?	No	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x72a310…
08-08 11:46:01	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on August 8?	No	BUY	6	38¢	$2	0x2df553…
08-08 11:45:51	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 8?	No	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x3a8757…
08-08 11:45:51	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on August 8?	No	BUY	7	37¢	$3	0x0ecbb6…
08-08 10:20:45	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 8?	No	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x312b85…
08-08 10:20:34	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 8?	No	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x4a3f52…
08-08 09:50:27	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 8?	No	BUY	3	46¢	$1	0x13690a…
08-08 09:50:16	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 8?	No	BUY	8	44¢	$4	0x289b45…
08-08 07:19:54	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on August 8?	No	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x953bdd…
08-08 07:09:52	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 8?	No	BUY	13	37¢	$5	0x817b97…
08-08 03:14:00	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 8?	No	BUY	37	13¢	$5	0x0383b0…
08-08 02:23:46	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on August 8?	No	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xcab767…
08-08 02:13:46	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on August 8?	No	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x32f590…
08-07 17:06:18	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on August 7?	No	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x86ed79…
08-07 16:25:51	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on August 7?	No	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x312915…
08-07 16:25:40	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on August 7?	No	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0x3a2a55…
08-07 16:05:28	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on August 7?	No	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xb26e67…
08-07 14:55:09	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on August 7?	No	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x19f20a…
08-07 12:49:37	Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 7?	No	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xf1ee90…
08-07 12:49:27	Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 7?	No	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0x88358d…
08-07 08:03:54	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 7?	No	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x6f7287…
08-07 07:13:46	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 7?	No	BUY	3	45¢	$1	0x6c5ce5…
08-07 07:13:37	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 7?	No	BUY	7	44¢	$3	0x642867…
08-07 07:13:27	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 7?	No	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x007fac…
08-07 04:48:07	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 7?	No	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xcbe9f2…
08-07 04:18:00	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 7?	No	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x6163bd…
08-07 03:52:58	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on August 7?	No	BUY	10	35¢	$3	0xbc6aac…
08-07 03:52:48	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on August 7?	No	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x2db017…
08-07 02:37:21	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 36°C on August 7?	No	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x50eb9a…
08-07 02:12:19	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 7?	No	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xedc47d…
08-06 17:21:05	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on August 6?	No	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x57ea51…
08-06 16:10:57	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on August 6?	No	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x1e1f23…
08-06 15:10:51	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 6?	No	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xb2290c…
08-05 17:20:05	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 5?	No	BUY	5	46¢	$3	0x6e8efe…
08-05 17:19:54	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 5?	No	BUY	6	45¢	$2	0x4d4c12…
08-05 15:09:29	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 5?	No	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x84f292…
08-05 14:04:20	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on August 5?	No	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xb5587c…
08-05 13:24:17	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on August 5?	No	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x39329c…