Natural-Service — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$423

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

65.7%

Resolved

1,737

Trades

2,671

lifetime

Volume

$84.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$31

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-23

last 10-29 03:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 36 days

Categories

Crypto

93% 57% -$698

Other

7% 33% +$286

Politics

0% 0% -$12

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 112 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 20:20 UTC	3	$2.3K	1,666	1,666	+0	Down	-$651	06-24 20:24
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	2	$2.2K	1,324	1,324	+0	Yes	+$422	06-21 06:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 17:55 UTC	4	$1.6K	2,663	2,663	+0	Down	-$135	06-24 17:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 18:30 UTC	2	$1.3K	2,190	0	+2,190	Down	+$906	06-24 18:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 18:20 UTC	2	$1000	1,330	0	+1,330	Up	+$330	06-24 18:21
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 12:50 UTC	1	$950	979	0	+979	Down	+$29	06-24 12:52
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 13:05 UTC	1	$900	1,415	0	+1,415	Down	+$515	06-24 13:06
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 01:00 UTC	1	$700	1,154	0	+1,154	Down	-$700	06-21 01:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 20:25 UTC	1	$675	1,392	0	+1,392	Up	-$675	06-24 20:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-25 07:00 UTC	9	$672	414	414	+0	Up	+$72	06-25 07:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 18:00 UTC	2	$600	1,693	0	+1,693	Up	-$600	06-24 18:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-25 13:45 UTC	1	$600	642	0	+642	Down	+$42	06-25 13:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 18:25 UTC	1	$600	641	0	+641	Up	+$41	06-21 18:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 17:45 UTC	1	$600	789	0	+789	Up	-$600	06-24 17:47
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	1	$586	861	0	+861	Yes	+$276	06-20 19:07
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 03:55 UTC	3	$575	383	383	+0	Up	+$183	06-28 04:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-25 09:40 UTC	13	$543	410	306	+104	Up	+$47	06-25 09:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 13:50 UTC	3	$532	386	386	+0	Down	+$232	06-28 13:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-25 12:10 UTC	3	$510	611	198	+412	Down	-$78	06-25 12:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 15:20 UTC	1	$500	562	0	+562	Down	-$500	06-24 15:21
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 06:40 UTC	3	$466	553	196	+357	Down	-$77	06-24 06:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-20 09:30 UTC	1	$457	841	0	+841	Up	+$384	06-20 09:31
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 10:20 UTC	3	$426	505	196	+309	Up	-$65	06-22 10:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 00:40 UTC	2	$412	214	214	+0	Down	+$12	06-22 00:46
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-26 12:00 UTC	3	$408	282	282	+0	Up	+$9	06-26 12:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 18:20 UTC	2	$405	553	0	+553	Up	+$148	06-21 18:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 20:30 UTC	2	$405	471	471	+0	Down	-$395	06-24 20:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 13:20 UTC	1	$400	561	0	+561	Down	+$161	06-24 13:21
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-24 18:40 UTC	1	$400	522	0	+522	Down	+$122	06-24 18:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 02:05 UTC	1	$400	430	0	+430	Down	+$30	06-23 02:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 03:52:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Up	SELL	25	3¢	$1	0xe2a54c…
10-29 03:50:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Up	BUY	25	38¢	$9	0x32b760…
10-29 03:49:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	SELL	19	3¢	$1	0x6cf59f…
10-29 03:47:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	BUY	58	26¢	$15	0x9ed5ee…
10-29 03:47:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	SELL	29	39¢	$11	0x048f35…
10-29 03:44:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	BUY	29	48¢	$14	0xf11625…
10-29 03:42:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	SELL	17	18¢	$3	0xc35b67…
10-29 03:41:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x042bd2…
10-29 03:41:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	SELL	27	41¢	$11	0xc94eb0…
10-29 03:40:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x5533a4…
10-29 03:40:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x2ae760…
10-29 03:37:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	SELL	16	10¢	$2	0xffa53b…
10-29 03:36:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0xaac1cc…
10-29 03:35:01	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 29?	Yes	SELL	18	58¢	$11	0xe089b2…
10-29 03:34:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xccbaa0…
10-29 03:34:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	SELL	27	95¢	$25	0x824b66…
10-29 03:31:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	27	55¢	$15	0x3743fe…
10-29 03:28:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	SELL	12	95¢	$11	0x1bcb2c…
10-29 03:28:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	SELL	44	2¢	$1	0x01648e…
10-29 03:28:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	44	34¢	$15	0x697ff4…
10-29 03:27:40	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	18	54¢	$10	0xf252e4…
10-29 03:26:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x097006…
10-29 03:21:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0x5e469e…
10-29 03:19:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x640442…
10-29 03:18:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Down	SELL	19	1¢	$0	0x212d79…
10-29 03:17:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Down	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0xf55826…
10-29 03:14:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	SELL	54	98¢	$53	0x2aec00…
10-29 03:10:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0x60b972…
10-29 03:09:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x6ab5a2…
10-29 03:07:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	60	43¢	$26	0x8be679…
10-29 03:06:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	26	58¢	$15	0xf7580a…
10-29 03:04:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	SELL	44	99¢	$43	0x07b431…
10-29 03:03:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	34	88¢	$30	0xfc8a14…
10-29 02:59:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x891571…
10-29 02:58:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	SELL	19	98¢	$19	0x4d5906…
10-29 02:54:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x58a6cc…
10-29 02:53:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0x7e7247…
10-29 02:49:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xfae220…
10-29 02:48:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0x6d6153…
10-29 02:46:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x13e177…
10-29 02:39:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x8d0d9a…
10-29 02:36:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Down	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x918ef8…
10-29 01:49:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0x9bd4ae…
10-29 01:48:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x45c13c…
10-29 01:43:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xf8fcf2…
10-29 01:38:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	SELL	16	98¢	$15	0xd6026a…
10-29 01:36:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Down	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0xa87026…
09-09 08:37:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0x1225b3…
09-09 08:36:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xe8ec83…
09-09 08:36:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x3cdac1…
09-09 08:34:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	SELL	17	8¢	$1	0x8a47f2…
09-09 08:30:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0xfedae2…
09-09 08:14:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	99	51¢	$50	0x8c0b23…
09-09 08:14:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	63	79¢	$50	0xf79305…
09-09 08:11:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	65	77¢	$50	0x2d548c…
09-09 08:08:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	SELL	147	14¢	$21	0x8629f7…
09-09 08:07:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	147	34¢	$50	0x0763f0…
09-09 07:59:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	SELL	94	5¢	$5	0x6fb377…
09-09 07:55:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	94	53¢	$50	0xc568c0…
09-09 07:29:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	SELL	176	1¢	$2	0x2d9d46…
09-09 07:28:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	176	28¢	$50	0x6edff7…
09-09 07:24:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	SELL	72	98¢	$71	0x2f21aa…
09-09 07:23:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	72	69¢	$50	0xeaf23d…
09-09 06:11:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	SELL	13	97¢	$13	0x75b07b…
09-09 06:10:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0xc5a0df…
09-09 06:04:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	SELL	66	99¢	$65	0x384cea…
09-09 06:02:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	SELL	18	16¢	$3	0x9f0b9e…
09-09 06:02:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	66	76¢	$50	0x53a350…
09-09 06:00:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x14e1c8…
09-07 06:23:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	SELL	179	95¢	$170	0xb9c654…
09-07 06:21:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	BUY	179	28¢	$50	0xae0d28…
09-07 05:41:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-07 05:35 UTC	Up	SELL	67	99¢	$66	0x728a32…
09-07 05:38:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-07 05:35 UTC	Up	BUY	67	75¢	$50	0x25199f…
09-07 05:34:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	SELL	91	99¢	$90	0xfece7d…
09-07 05:32:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-07 05:30 UTC	Down	BUY	91	55¢	$50	0xb4c5ce…
09-07 05:09:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	SELL	58	98¢	$57	0x4f0ce7…
09-07 05:09:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	58	86¢	$50	0x43c414…
09-07 01:23:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x4af4b2…
09-04 13:32:33	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	750	0¢	$3	0x8703dd…
09-04 13:12:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	SELL	14	11¢	$2	0x1d0ad1…
09-04 13:10:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xc11daa…
09-04 13:08:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	SELL	49	7¢	$3	0x87b6bf…
09-04 13:06:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x6b03e8…
09-04 13:06:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x496d72…
09-04 13:04:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	57	17¢	$10	0xdca442…
09-04 13:02:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x93e3dc…
09-04 12:33:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x2ccb2e…
09-04 11:49:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	SELL	19	98¢	$19	0x4050bf…
09-04 11:48:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x743b50…
09-04 11:14:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0x238ff7…
09-04 11:13:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	23	87¢	$20	0x56f94b…
09-04 11:02:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-04 11:00 UTC	Down	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0x7f7546…
09-04 10:57:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-04 10:55 UTC	Up	SELL	14	93¢	$13	0xc3fc86…
09-04 10:55:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-04 10:55 UTC	Up	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0x6bdf56…
09-04 10:53:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-04 10:50 UTC	Up	SELL	9	8¢	$1	0xa73304…
09-04 10:53:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-04 10:50 UTC	Up	SELL	15	10¢	$2	0x2c1e61…
09-04 10:50:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-04 10:50 UTC	Up	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x089403…
09-04 10:49:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	SELL	15	1¢	$0	0x281044…
09-04 10:45:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-04 10:45 UTC	Down	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x63b182…
09-04 10:43:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-04 10:40 UTC	Down	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0xbc0969…