Excited-Polarization — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$650

Unrealized P&L

+$6

Hit rate

57.5%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

168 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$3.27K

$34.1K lifetime

Avg / trade

$203

Open exposure

$42

1 position

First seen

2026-01-10

last 10-10 07:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 45 days

Categories

Politics

53% 85% -$365

Other

42% 95% -$298

Crypto

3% 100% +$1

Sports

2% 100% +$30

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	Yes		+42	$36	100¢	$42	+$6	10-10 07:24

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	3	$2.1K	1,059	1,059	+0	Yes	+$4	07-17 16:24
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	2	$2.1K	1,056	1,056	+0	No	+$1	07-17 13:03
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	2	$2.0K	999	999	+0	Yes	+$1	05-31 12:26
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	2	$1.5K	768	768	+0	No	+$2	04-15 01:28
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	1	$1.1K	1,144	0	+1,144	Yes	+$7	07-20 02:09
over 32pt5m committed to the credible public sale	5	$1.1K	1,132	0	+1,132	Yes	+$79	07-17 16:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	1	$1.0K	1,051	0	+1,051	No	+$1	07-05 13:51
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	1	$1.0K	1,050	0	+1,050	No	+$14	06-19 12:03
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 17 2026 20260612163100185 516 841	2	$1.0K	1,036	0	+1,036	No	+$3	06-18 02:41
iran closes its airspace by june 8	1	$1.0K	1,032	0	+1,032	Yes	+$1	06-08 08:42
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	6	$1.0K	1,031	0	+1,031	No	+$22	06-05 09:07
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	1	$1.0K	1,010	0	+1,010	No	+$1	06-01 17:03
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	1	$963	996	0	+996	No	+$33	05-22 04:55
iran successfully targets shipping on july 8 20260625225210249	3	$792	793	0	+793	No	+$2	07-11 03:06
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	1	$763	764	0	+764	Yes	+$2	04-09 03:41
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	1	$647	650	0	+650	Yes	+$3	08-15 00:23
lol dkc nsea 2026 08 05 game2	1	$646	647	0	+647	Dplus KIA Challengers	+$1	08-05 08:40
will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	5	$644	647	0	+647	No	+$3	08-04 04:00
will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	1	$642	644	0	+644	No	+$2	08-01 03:16
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	3	$639	367	367	+0	Yes	-$7	07-30 02:18
over 32pt5m committed to the ripcars public sale	10	$624	801	801	+0	No	-$498	07-25 16:58
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	6	$615	349	349	+0	No	-$35	08-24 05:52
pau cubarsi 20260609173616775	1	$542	543	0	+543	Yes	+$1	06-15 15:33
over 35m committed to the ripcars public sale	1	$520	521	0	+521	No	+$1	07-25 16:57
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	2	$506	255	255	+0	Yes	+$0	03-14 11:11
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	5	$499	502	0	+502	No	+$4	05-31 14:00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$499	507	0	+507	No	+$8	05-31 12:26
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?	3	$459	476	0	+476	No	+$17	05-13 07:15
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	8	$459	487	0	+487	No	+$28	05-13 05:18
will trump talk to mark rutte in march 855	3	$455	463	0	+463	No	+$8	04-03 13:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-10 07:24:13	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	93¢	$18	0xcf98c1…
10-10 06:25:09	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x4d8227…
10-10 06:24:28	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	SELL	14	98¢	$14	0xd7c80f…
10-10 06:23:52	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0x44197e…
10-06 17:29:45	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x398c17…
10-06 12:06:09	Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0xf5c56d…
10-05 12:22:59	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 15 2026	No	SELL	20	86¢	$17	0x13e76d…
10-05 10:28:41	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 15 2026	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x107fe3…
10-05 10:27:44	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xba12be…
08-26 00:04:43	us x iran ceasefire continues through september 30	Yes	BUY	92	82¢	$75	0xcb4ffa…
08-25 06:48:28	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	Yes	BUY	135	64¢	$87	0x289e56…
08-24 05:52:27	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	SELL	91	83¢	$76	0x373009…
08-24 05:11:04	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	Yes	BUY	200	64¢	$128	0x8153e2…
08-24 05:10:46	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	SELL	258	83¢	$214	0x843817…
08-23 03:16:43	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804222025507 868 993	No	BUY	327	93¢	$304	0x2eda82…
08-23 00:58:00	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804222025507 868 993	No	BUY	0	93¢	$0	0x897491…
08-22 23:21:18	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804222025507 868 993	No	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xcdd709…
08-22 23:20:09	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804222025507 868 993	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0xd2ed24…
08-22 23:19:55	us x iran ceasefire continues through september 15	Yes	BUY	417	78¢	$325	0xf1e3f8…
08-15 00:23:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	650	100¢	$647	0x856379…
08-05 08:40:27	lol dkc nsea 2026 08 05 game2	Dplus KIA Challengers	BUY	647	100¢	$646	0x54a34a…
08-04 04:00:38	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	142	100¢	$142	0x16be6c…
08-04 03:46:03	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xdb453a…
08-04 03:40:47	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x780d2a…
08-04 03:00:20	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	275	100¢	$274	0xa08a50…
08-04 03:00:15	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	159	100¢	$158	0xe637e5…
08-01 03:16:09	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	No	BUY	644	100¢	$642	0xdcd6b7…
07-30 02:18:21	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	SELL	294	86¢	$253	0xef6258…
07-30 02:14:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	SELL	73	86¢	$63	0x74c06f…
07-27 02:23:01	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?	Yes	BUY	367	88¢	$323	0xe630cf…
07-27 02:22:49	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?	Yes	BUY	326	99¢	$323	0x92e504…
07-25 16:58:31	over 32pt5m committed to the ripcars public sale	Yes	SELL	30	1¢	$0	0x23f9f1…
07-25 16:57:24	over 35m committed to the ripcars public sale	No	BUY	521	100¢	$520	0x18ae9d…
07-25 16:57:10	over 32pt5m committed to the ripcars public sale	Yes	SELL	148	7¢	$10	0x874b2d…
07-25 16:56:36	over 32pt5m committed to the ripcars public sale	Yes	SELL	508	8¢	$41	0xee0c13…
07-25 16:56:22	over 32pt5m committed to the ripcars public sale	Yes	SELL	22	9¢	$2	0x4cb53e…
07-25 16:56:03	over 32pt5m committed to the ripcars public sale	Yes	SELL	23	9¢	$2	0x14f4d8…
07-25 16:55:51	over 37pt5m committed to the ripcars public sale	No	BUY	125	100¢	$125	0x0f2ff3…
07-25 16:55:24	over 32pt5m committed to the ripcars public sale	Yes	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0x7ee5fe…
07-25 16:55:06	over 32pt5m committed to the ripcars public sale	Yes	SELL	60	11¢	$7	0xd141ac…
07-24 15:16:36	over 32pt5m committed to the ripcars public sale	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xc8d2e0…
07-24 15:13:43	over 32pt5m committed to the ripcars public sale	Yes	BUY	710	70¢	$497	0xf47bc3…
07-24 15:09:43	over 32pt5m committed to the ripcars public sale	Yes	BUY	90	70¢	$63	0xd39a7b…
07-20 02:09:49	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	1,144	99¢	$1,137	0x4fc8b5…
07-17 16:32:46	over 32pt5m committed to the credible public sale	Yes	BUY	555	93¢	$517	0xed4532…
07-17 16:25:25	over 32pt5m committed to the credible public sale	Yes	BUY	34	93¢	$32	0x99045f…
07-17 16:25:03	over 32pt5m committed to the credible public sale	Yes	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x98d341…
07-17 16:25:00	over 32pt5m committed to the credible public sale	Yes	BUY	422	93¢	$392	0xe37485…
07-17 16:24:52	over 32pt5m committed to the credible public sale	Yes	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x0ccea9…
07-17 16:24:09	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	Yes	SELL	1,059	100¢	$1,058	0x127f65…
07-17 13:19:51	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	Yes	BUY	903	100¢	$901	0xece3fd…
07-17 13:09:51	over 30m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325652	Yes	BUY	155	99¢	$153	0xbe473d…
07-17 13:03:48	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	1,056	100¢	$1,054	0xe474a4…
07-13 12:50:38	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	1,056	100¢	$1,053	0xdf9217…
07-12 20:49:08	iran successfully targets shipping on july 9 20260625225210250	No	BUY	96	99¢	$96	0x276542…
07-11 09:40:04	iran successfully targets shipping on july 9 20260625225210250	No	BUY	114	100¢	$114	0xe5a841…
07-11 03:06:19	iran successfully targets shipping on july 8 20260625225210249	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd0dcba…
07-11 03:05:47	iran successfully targets shipping on july 8 20260625225210249	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xd1ced2…
07-11 02:21:20	iran successfully targets shipping on july 8 20260625225210249	No	BUY	789	100¢	$788	0x8c5e9a…
07-05 13:51:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1,051	100¢	$1,049	0xc1b9f6…
06-19 12:03:46	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	No	BUY	1,050	99¢	$1,036	0x62a03e…
06-18 02:41:56	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 17 2026 20260612163100185 516 841	No	BUY	602	100¢	$600	0xde708f…
06-18 02:36:41	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 17 2026 20260612163100185 516 841	No	BUY	434	100¢	$433	0x6e3ece…
06-15 15:33:34	marcos llorente 20260609173616758	Yes	BUY	63	100¢	$63	0xacbbb2…
06-15 15:33:09	pau cubarsi 20260609173616775	Yes	BUY	543	100¢	$542	0x26c523…
06-15 15:32:49	unai simon 20260609173616776	Yes	BUY	236	100¢	$236	0xc01618…
06-15 15:32:42	ferran torres 20260609173616760	Yes	BUY	191	100¢	$191	0xdf7087…
06-08 08:42:24	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	1,032	100¢	$1,031	0x770e17…
06-05 09:07:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	BUY	472	98¢	$462	0x3b1058…
06-05 09:06:40	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0x2d2851…
06-05 09:04:57	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	BUY	43	98¢	$42	0x053edb…
06-05 09:04:52	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0xcce78c…
06-05 09:03:25	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	BUY	7	98¢	$6	0x11a75f…
06-05 08:59:45	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	BUY	509	98¢	$498	0x14bcb7…
06-01 17:03:37	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,010	100¢	$1,009	0x50d5d7…
05-31 14:00:47	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	111	99¢	$110	0x8d418d…
05-31 13:55:20	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x3bf5b6…
05-31 13:47:36	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	333	99¢	$331	0xc1ca05…
05-31 12:30:06	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x3f6f9d…
05-31 12:29:24	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	52	99¢	$52	0x6524b2…
05-31 12:26:41	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	507	98¢	$499	0x5340a6…
05-31 12:26:27	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	999	100¢	$998	0x0a8494…
05-25 04:48:54	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	999	100¢	$997	0xc7668d…
05-22 04:55:59	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	996	97¢	$963	0x4056d8…
05-13 07:15:26	Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	190	97¢	$183	0xce20c5…
05-13 06:41:38	Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	57	97¢	$55	0xc80f73…
05-13 05:59:52	Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	229	97¢	$221	0x9f2e2e…
05-13 05:18:42	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	82	94¢	$78	0x1a4b51…
05-13 05:15:07	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	34	94¢	$32	0x00bbac…
05-13 05:13:20	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	60	94¢	$57	0xd1be38…
05-13 05:08:00	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0x5b3af2…
05-13 05:07:04	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	121	94¢	$114	0x316abf…
05-13 05:05:09	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0x7a19bf…
05-13 05:02:29	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	138	94¢	$130	0x21b1a1…
05-13 04:39:27	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0xb0fe4c…
04-28 16:20:26	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	BUY	112	99¢	$111	0x37e330…
04-25 20:25:00	Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30?	No	BUY	89	97¢	$86	0x5783bf…
04-25 18:59:08	Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30?	No	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0x5e1122…
04-25 16:24:48	Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	61	94¢	$58	0xc1d218…
04-25 14:25:40	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	95	78¢	$74	0xdbeb9f…