Untrue-Equation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.17K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

70.2%

Resolved

Trades

243

lifetime

Volume

$48.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$198

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-02

last 10-05 01:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 36 days

Categories

Other

48% 44% +$1,953

Politics

35% 75% +$75

Tech

13% 71% -$1,257

Sports

2% 20% +$292

Crypto

1% 100% +$108

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	4	$4.0K	2,401	2,401	+0	No	+$545	08-28 11:43
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	8	$3.9K	3,681	1,228	+2,453	No	+$943	08-31 16:12
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	2	$3.8K	2,222	2,222	+0	Yes	+$44	06-17 14:21
Will Therese Terlaje win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?	2	$3.2K	2,061	2,061	+0	Yes	+$886	08-02 15:37
Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?	2	$2.7K	1,813	1,813	+0	Yes	+$872	07-26 20:45
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026?	8	$2.2K	4,121	4,121	+0	No	-$401	08-04 13:05
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	5	$2.1K	1,111	1,111	+0	Yes	+$90	07-26 20:37
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?	16	$1.7K	1,379	1,379	+0	Yes	+$149	05-10 18:59
will the us government rescind its ban on all foreign use of claude fable 5 by july 1 20260613202440143	9	$1.7K	3,154	0	+3,154	Yes	-$1,707	06-22 03:02
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?	1	$1.3K	2,357	0	+2,357	No	-$1,300	07-26 21:32
will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	7	$1.2K	1,084	1,084	+0	No	-$31	06-17 04:41
will spacexs valuation hit high 2pt5t by june 30	2	$1.1K	936	936	+0	Yes	-$74	06-04 22:59
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30?	22	$1.0K	1,950	0	+1,950	No	+$903	06-18 13:34
Will Fatima Shaban win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?	12	$1.0K	703	703	+0	Yes	+$4	09-02 17:42
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?	2	$1.0K	923	923	+0	open	—	09-01 19:02
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?	15	$1.0K	13,678	13,678	+0	Yes	-$978	09-02 15:43
Will MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30?	10	$923	1,942	0	+1,942	Yes	+$1,018	05-22 07:36
Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?	5	$900	1,423	0	+1,423	Yes	+$523	09-16 12:57
Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 4, 2026?	6	$873	979	0	+979	Yes	-$873	09-04 16:47
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	1	$844	1,223	0	+1,223	Yes	+$379	08-04 13:20
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10?	2	$828	438	438	+0	Yes	+$48	05-10 21:04
Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	5	$819	1,284	1,284	+0	No	-$627	09-16 12:55
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	8	$782	1,207	1,207	+0	No	-$397	07-26 20:37
Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 3, 2026?	5	$748	1,488	821	+667	No	-$52	09-03 19:42
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 11?	4	$717	1,089	0	+1,089	Yes	+$372	09-10 04:39
Will Elaine Pelino win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?	1	$645	709	0	+709	No	-$645	09-01 12:21
gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	2	$560	327	327	+0	No	+$46	06-11 02:34
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	13	$509	1,206	1,206	+0	No	+$21	06-13 17:23
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	2	$502	612	0	+612	No	+$110	05-25 18:27
Will John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?	1	$500	572	0	+572	Yes	+$72	08-02 23:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-05 01:59:38	ChatGPT Full Outage by September 30?	No	SELL	120	96¢	$115	0x3e0ad6…
09-17 17:21:27	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 18, 2026?	No	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0xb8e546…
09-17 16:49:40	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 18, 2026?	No	BUY	11	80¢	$9	0xadc178…
09-17 14:35:43	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 17, 2026?	No	BUY	119	60¢	$71	0x8eeec0…
09-17 14:35:16	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 18, 2026?	No	BUY	96	83¢	$80	0xca9ed1…
09-17 14:35:07	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 18, 2026?	No	BUY	59	80¢	$47	0xab9712…
09-17 14:35:07	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 18, 2026?	No	BUY	56	80¢	$44	0x39961c…
09-16 12:57:15	Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	143	78¢	$111	0xcb91c5…
09-16 12:56:57	Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	349	19¢	$66	0x8f4e26…
09-16 12:56:34	Will OpenAI be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	591	0¢	$3	0x081d40…
09-16 12:55:55	Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	148	75¢	$111	0x766be9…
09-16 12:55:37	Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,284	7¢	$96	0xeb9723…
09-13 13:21:00	Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	771	65¢	$500	0x756110…
09-11 23:38:33	Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x3edc48…
09-11 23:38:33	Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	60¢	$48	0x2ba6f5…
09-11 23:33:58	Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	349	37¢	$128	0x73731b…
09-11 23:33:52	Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x9cc4ff…
09-11 23:33:40	Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	261	49¢	$128	0x7526c2…
09-11 23:13:31	ChatGPT Full Outage by September 30?	No	BUY	379	79¢	$300	0x61b5c6…
09-11 22:58:57	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 7.5 and 10 million views on day 1?	Yes	SELL	12	2¢	$0	0xd054f2…
09-11 22:58:54	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 18, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	8¢	$1	0x3fcd40…
09-11 03:32:01	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 7.5 and 10 million views on day 1?	Yes	BUY	12	12¢	$2	0x49e2d2…
09-10 22:46:13	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	69¢	$9	0x4a42f8…
09-10 04:39:54	Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 11?	Yes	BUY	50	67¢	$34	0x3683b9…
09-10 03:19:37	Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 11?	Yes	BUY	272	74¢	$200	0xc0819d…
09-09 01:55:43	Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 11?	Yes	BUY	346	57¢	$197	0x12a60b…
09-08 18:42:58	Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	467	64¢	$300	0xa6474d…
09-08 01:26:03	Will OpenAI be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	591	26¢	$155	0xc26730…
09-08 01:25:52	Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	687	50¢	$345	0x606a64…
09-08 01:24:42	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 18, 2026?	No	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0x9bd2b3…
09-08 01:24:33	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 18, 2026?	No	BUY	40	67¢	$27	0x8fa02a…
09-07 01:18:52	Will David Morales be the Democratic nominee for Mayor of Providence?	Yes	BUY	531	88¢	$467	0xf2eab9…
09-06 03:13:30	Will CZ post 20-39 posts from September 1 to September 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	488	82¢	$400	0xc9965d…
09-04 16:47:40	Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	574	87¢	$500	0x89f542…
09-03 19:42:16	Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 3, 2026?	No	BUY	36	95¢	$34	0x5dd1ab…
09-03 19:41:58	Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 3, 2026?	No	BUY	632	95¢	$600	0x33f8fc…
09-03 19:40:30	Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	150	90¢	$135	0xb0dd88…
09-03 15:42:21	will openais astra model be released by september 3 2026	No	BUY	679	4¢	$30	0x442bc9…
09-03 15:08:46	will openais astra model be released by september 3 2026	No	BUY	370	8¢	$30	0x5703e7…
09-03 15:04:31	Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 3, 2026?	No	SELL	821	2¢	$14	0x016149…
09-03 14:51:19	Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 3, 2026?	No	BUY	386	13¢	$50	0xc15e7b…
09-03 13:43:18	Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 3, 2026?	No	BUY	435	11¢	$50	0xa6671f…
09-03 02:35:37	Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	51	93¢	$48	0x34e9bd…
09-03 02:34:49	Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	50	93¢	$47	0x770efa…
09-03 02:34:39	Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	25	93¢	$23	0x605dd4…
09-03 02:34:31	Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	129	93¢	$120	0xd5e00f…
09-03 02:10:16	Will CZ post 20-39 posts from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	221	91¢	$201	0x1cca09…
09-03 01:19:31	Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s US Open?	Yes	BUY	1,294	6¢	$82	0x4f7111…
09-03 01:19:16	Will Jessica Pegula win the 2026 Women’s US Open?	Yes	BUY	1,284	11¢	$136	0x1490d6…
09-03 01:18:54	Will Iga Swiatek win the 2026 Women’s US Open?	Yes	BUY	1,278	15¢	$195	0x95c14e…
09-03 01:18:39	Will Coco Gauff win the 2026 Women’s US Open?	Yes	BUY	1,287	20¢	$263	0x0224ed…
09-03 01:18:25	Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s US Open?	Yes	BUY	1,285	25¢	$327	0xd8d0cd…
09-02 18:03:58	Will The Left win the third most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?	Yes	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x6983e5…
09-02 17:42:13	Will Fatima Shaban win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?	Yes	SELL	1	72¢	$1	0x807d30…
09-02 17:09:34	Will Fatima Shaban win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?	Yes	SELL	11	75¢	$8	0xcd9b2d…
09-02 15:43:06	Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?	No	SELL	13,678	0¢	$23	0xc473a8…
09-02 15:37:37	Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?	No	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x7131d6…
09-02 15:32:33	Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?	No	BUY	5,000	1¢	$50	0xbfc588…
09-02 15:04:18	Will Fatima Shaban win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?	Yes	SELL	4	75¢	$3	0x95f566…
09-02 14:58:45	Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1,710	3¢	$50	0x3a80f2…
09-02 14:57:49	Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	2¢	$15	0x355949…
09-02 14:50:10	Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?	No	BUY	185	3¢	$6	0x6911b2…
09-02 14:39:37	Will Fatima Shaban win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?	Yes	SELL	21	75¢	$15	0xc0bc6b…
09-02 14:16:04	Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?	No	BUY	784	4¢	$32	0x00a6ee…
09-02 14:04:36	Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1,671	5¢	$87	0xf4b449…
09-02 06:31:27	Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	15¢	$150	0x52e862…
09-02 05:17:33	Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?	No	BUY	644	22¢	$142	0x53f260…
09-02 05:02:34	Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?	No	BUY	181	22¢	$40	0x992da1…
09-02 04:58:22	Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?	No	BUY	70	22¢	$15	0x280c50…
09-01 23:52:43	Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?	No	BUY	600	30¢	$180	0x066f7d…
09-01 21:07:45	Will Fatima Shaban win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?	Yes	SELL	10	74¢	$7	0xe4e634…
09-01 21:02:36	Will Fatima Shaban win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?	Yes	SELL	54	74¢	$40	0x3f8658…
09-01 20:36:43	Will Fatima Shaban win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?	Yes	SELL	130	74¢	$96	0x2648c1…
09-01 19:51:57	Will Fatima Shaban win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?	Yes	BUY	703	74¢	$520	0xd3bbeb…
09-01 19:02:25	Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	923	47¢	$429	0x51e80e…
09-01 18:37:04	Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?	No	BUY	491	41¢	$200	0xbf3848…
09-01 12:21:36	Will Elaine Pelino win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	709	91¢	$645	0x81b9df…
08-31 16:12:33	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	500	97¢	$486	0x323cb7…
08-31 15:25:03	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	300	97¢	$291	0xb85885…
08-31 14:12:46	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	300	96¢	$288	0x8d796f…
08-31 14:04:24	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	128	95¢	$122	0xabc06d…
08-29 16:46:51	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	253	69¢	$176	0xacc4f6…
08-29 00:21:48	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	314	70¢	$220	0x3de651…
08-28 15:37:28	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	102	50¢	$51	0x56faa3…
08-28 11:45:25	Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,012	75¢	$2,251	0x9497a7…
08-28 11:43:58	Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	No	SELL	2,401	95¢	$2,281	0x7d3048…
08-20 14:05:49	another gta vi trailer released by august 31 20260629164610050	No	BUY	1,338	75¢	$999	0xb51bf2…
08-20 14:04:30	another gta vi trailer released by august 31 20260629164610050	No	BUY	859	70¢	$600	0x299ed1…
08-20 14:04:15	another gta vi trailer released by august 31 20260629164610050	No	BUY	205	67¢	$137	0xbcd60f…
08-19 19:37:22	Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	923	65¢	$600	0xa4e5f0…
08-04 13:20:05	Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	Yes	BUY	1,223	69¢	$844	0xd2c87c…
08-04 13:05:51	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026?	No	SELL	4,121	21¢	$884	0xc5e9f3…
08-04 01:45:48	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026?	No	BUY	8	22¢	$2	0x35b115…
08-04 01:45:27	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026?	No	BUY	1,165	22¢	$258	0xad3aac…
08-03 21:59:38	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026?	No	BUY	929	34¢	$320	0x2b34a9…
08-03 20:26:24	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026?	No	BUY	171	35¢	$60	0xff2a4d…
08-03 20:21:06	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026?	No	BUY	63	35¢	$22	0x33113c…
08-03 20:20:57	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026?	No	BUY	858	35¢	$300	0x9a7892…
08-03 20:08:12	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026?	No	BUY	926	35¢	$323	0xcbb2c7…
08-02 23:03:17	Will John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?	Yes	BUY	572	87¢	$500	0x053690…