Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$353

Unrealized P&L

-$16

Hit rate

11.1%

Resolved

117

Trades

990

lifetime

Volume

$10.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-10-17

last 10-31 19:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 22 days

Categories

Other

52% 16% -$314

Politics

44% 17% -$30

Tech

1% 0% -$2

Sports

1% 0% -$6

Pop-Culture

1% 50% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 154 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (15) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Texas Democrat perform best among these tossup Senate races?	No	+10	$13	1¢	$0	-$13	10-31 19:09
No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?	No	+0	$0	70¢	$0	$0	10-26 20:01
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-17 House election by 6%-9%?	No	+0	$3	50¢	$0	-$3	10-22 08:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25?	20	$207	155	155	+0	Yes	-$19	10-27 14:40
Allstate (ALL) Q3 property-liability combined ratio <86%?	18	$190	140	140	+0	No	-$14	10-28 21:46
Will PSOE receive between 26% and 28% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	13	$164	120	120	+0	open	—	10-28 16:37
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MN-05 House election by 55%-60%?	8	$128	80	80	+0	open	—	10-24 05:25
Starbucks (SBUX) Q4 global comparable store sales growth 5% to 7%?	11	$126	90	90	+0	No	-$4	10-29 20:05
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Arkansas gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?	10	$126	79	79	+0	open	—	10-28 16:44
Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 26-November 1?	11	$122	90	90	+0	No	-$11	10-28 12:56
Will Amazon’s market capitalization be between $3.00T and $3.50T at the end of 2026?	12	$118	80	80	+0	open	—	10-25 06:27
Visa (V) Q4 payments volume growth (constant dollars) 9.5% to 10.5%?	10	$114	89	89	+0	Yes	-$11	10-27 20:06
Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 26-November 1?	8	$106	80	80	+0	Yes	-$12	10-25 11:28
Visa (V) Q4 payments volume growth (constant dollars) 8.5% to 9.5%?	9	$96	80	80	+0	No	-$14	10-26 21:51
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 FL-23 House election by 35% or more?	6	$94	60	60	+0	open	—	10-22 05:42
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-26 House election by 15%-20%?	9	$92	60	60	+0	open	—	10-24 08:24
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on October 31, 2026?	9	$91	60	60	+0	No	-$3	10-28 08:13
Will Angola win AFCON 2027 qualifying Group B?	6	$91	60	60	+0	open	—	10-24 22:42
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election by 5%-10%?	7	$90	60	60	+0	open	—	10-28 12:55
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 24 or 25 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?	7	$90	60	60	+0	No	-$2	10-24 17:15
Will 1 Independent be elected to Congress in 2026?	9	$88	65	65	+0	open	—	10-24 10:15
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TN-07 House election by 10%-15%?	6	$88	60	60	+0	open	—	10-23 18:09
Will Peggy Flanagan run 0 to 3 points behind Amy Klobuchar?	6	$86	60	60	+0	open	—	10-27 14:44
Will Keisha Lance Bottoms run 3 to 6 points behind Jon Ossoff?	7	$85	60	60	+0	open	—	10-21 12:50
Yum! Brands (YUM) Q3 worldwide same-restaurant sales growth -0.5% to 0.5%?	7	$84	60	60	+0	Yes	-$5	10-29 00:13
Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $6.50 on November 30, 2026?	6	$84	60	60	+0	open	—	10-29 13:01
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-27 House election by 10%-15%?	6	$84	54	54	+0	open	—	10-22 00:37
Mastercard (MA) Q3 cross-border volume growth (local currency basis) 11.5% to 12.5%?	7	$82	60	60	+0	No	-$3	10-28 21:05
Coca-Cola (KO) Q3 global unit case volume growth <3.5%?	11	$82	60	60	+0	No	-$6	10-25 23:14
Will OpenRouter process between 165T and 175T tokens the week of October 19?	8	$80	60	59	+1	No	-$5	10-19 12:02
Will Democrats win exactly 3 House seats in Wisconsin in the 2026 midterm elections?	7	$79	60	60	+0	No	-$7	10-28 13:19
Will Abdul El-Sayed run 0 to 3 points behind Jocelyn Benson?	6	$76	60	60	+0	open	—	10-26 00:47
Visa (V) Q4 cross border volume total growth (constant dollars) 13.5% to 14.5%?	10	$76	56	56	+0	Yes	-$6	10-26 16:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 19:09:43	Will the Texas Democrat perform best among these tossup Senate races?	No	SELL	10	76¢	$8	0x2f3b55…
10-30 00:40:16	Democratic Senate odds 66-68% on October 30?	No	SELL	20	57¢	$11	0xa2c7f5…
10-29 20:05:55	Starbucks (SBUX) Q4 global comparable store sales growth 5% to 7%?	No	SELL	7	69¢	$5	0x03408b…
10-29 20:05:54	Starbucks (SBUX) Q4 global comparable store sales growth 5% to 7%?	No	SELL	13	69¢	$9	0x963d7a…
10-29 13:08:59	Democratic Senate odds 60-62% on November 2?	No	SELL	20	79¢	$16	0x1bd0d7…
10-29 13:07:58	Democratic Senate odds 66-68% on October 30?	No	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0xb6c66e…
10-29 13:01:47	Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $6.50 on November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	69¢	$14	0xb847a3…
10-29 12:30:50	Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $6.50 on November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x079a33…
10-29 12:17:31	Will Becerra win the 2026 California gubernatorial election by 25%-30%?	No	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0xfad632…
10-29 11:27:25	Will "Clayface" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 14m?	No	SELL	20	71¢	$14	0x945409…
10-29 11:27:07	Will "Clayface" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 14m?	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x44be53…
10-29 11:20:29	Democratic Senate odds 60-62% on November 2?	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0xf8c305…
10-29 10:35:07	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder finish as the #1 seed in the 2026-27 NBA Western Conference?	No	SELL	20	77¢	$15	0x0717d7…
10-29 10:30:14	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder finish as the #1 seed in the 2026-27 NBA Western Conference?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0xbd2bd3…
10-29 09:30:46	Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $313,000 and $318,000 on December 31?	No	SELL	20	74¢	$15	0xa32c26…
10-29 09:29:38	Will the Republican Party control the Pennsylvania Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0x5ec462…
10-29 09:27:29	Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $313,000 and $318,000 on December 31?	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x713e21…
10-29 08:24:23	Will the Republican Party control the Pennsylvania Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x219dac…
10-29 07:26:23	Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between November 2-November 8?	No	SELL	10	78¢	$8	0xcd45a2…
10-29 07:06:53	Democratic Senate odds 66-68% on October 30?	No	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0x727d1a…
10-29 06:28:59	Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between November 2-November 8?	No	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0x7f6581…
10-29 04:06:11	Will the Texas Democrat perform best among these tossup Senate races?	No	SELL	0	71¢	$0	0xbb832c…
10-29 03:26:40	Will the biggest earthquake on October 29, 2026 be 5.3 to 5.4?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x24fe71…
10-29 03:25:25	Will the biggest earthquake on October 29, 2026 be 5.3 to 5.4?	No	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x93cc1d…
10-29 02:41:01	democratic senate odds 66 68 on october 30	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x42f5dd…
10-29 02:28:34	Will UKMTO publish fewer than 4 notices between November 2-November 8?	No	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0x8e4eaa…
10-29 02:26:53	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?	No	SELL	20	79¢	$16	0x6109aa…
10-29 02:15:47	Will UKMTO publish fewer than 4 notices between November 2-November 8?	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xe7c3da…
10-29 01:52:26	Starbucks (SBUX) Q4 global comparable store sales growth 5% to 7%?	No	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0x8948eb…
10-29 01:29:14	Will UKMTO publish fewer than 4 notices between November 2-November 8?	No	BUY	0	76¢	$0	0xbe4c9c…
10-29 01:25:59	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0xd86977…
10-29 01:07:20	Will the Texas Democrat perform best among these tossup Senate races?	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x16277c…
10-29 00:13:14	Yum! Brands (YUM) Q3 worldwide same-restaurant sales growth -0.5% to 0.5%?	No	SELL	20	65¢	$13	0x928925…
10-29 00:09:07	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 6.5% to 7.5%?	No	SELL	20	43¢	$9	0x79e5be…
10-29 00:05:53	Yum! Brands (YUM) Q3 worldwide same-restaurant sales growth -0.5% to 0.5%?	No	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x656095…
10-28 22:28:13	Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $6.50 on November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	62¢	$12	0xdccd5e…
10-28 22:28:04	Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $6.50 on November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0xa8858b…
10-28 21:46:34	Allstate (ALL) Q3 property-liability combined ratio <86%?	No	SELL	4	60¢	$3	0x588bee…
10-28 21:46:02	Allstate (ALL) Q3 property-liability combined ratio <86%?	No	SELL	7	62¢	$4	0xf55a20…
10-28 21:46:02	Allstate (ALL) Q3 property-liability combined ratio <86%?	No	SELL	8	62¢	$5	0xec142a…
10-28 21:46:02	Allstate (ALL) Q3 property-liability combined ratio <86%?	No	SELL	1	62¢	$1	0xd4f89b…
10-28 21:36:04	Will Team Europe win the 2027 Ryder Cup?	No	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x3d2c0c…
10-28 21:05:59	Mastercard (MA) Q3 cross-border volume growth (local currency basis) 11.5% to 12.5%?	No	SELL	20	67¢	$13	0x9af65f…
10-28 21:05:38	Mastercard (MA) Q3 cross-border volume growth (local currency basis) 11.5% to 12.5%?	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x7e4af6…
10-28 20:51:25	Allstate (ALL) Q3 property-liability combined ratio <86%?	No	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x461f00…
10-28 20:44:11	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $2.00T and $2.25T at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	11	74¢	$8	0x9f1304…
10-28 20:38:41	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $2.00T and $2.25T at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	9	79¢	$7	0x414f31…
10-28 20:29:49	Will there be exactly 3 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 26?	No	SELL	5	67¢	$3	0x1e4fa8…
10-28 20:13:52	Will PARIVISION win PARI Universe?	No	SELL	1	14¢	$0	0xa6a7d1…
10-28 20:12:25	Will PARIVISION win PARI Universe?	No	SELL	19	58¢	$11	0x864a78…
10-28 19:33:35	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $2.00T and $2.25T at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0xbe1239…
10-28 19:15:55	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 6.5% to 7.5%?	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0x47dac7…
10-28 18:01:58	Yum! Brands (YUM) Q3 worldwide same-restaurant sales growth -0.5% to 0.5%?	No	SELL	18	62¢	$11	0x19fe6e…
10-28 17:03:49	Will two people dissent the October Fed decision?	No	SELL	15	60¢	$9	0x96ca99…
10-28 16:44:47	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Arkansas gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?	No	SELL	19	77¢	$15	0x8f1288…
10-28 16:37:40	Will PSOE receive between 26% and 28% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	SELL	20	62¢	$12	0xda920b…
10-28 16:32:55	Will the US national average gas price be less than $4.2300 on October 29?	No	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0x7a55b0…
10-28 16:32:55	Will the US national average gas price be less than $4.2300 on October 29?	No	SELL	18	55¢	$10	0x1eaf66…
10-28 16:12:31	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Arkansas gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?	No	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0xdf6cfe…
10-28 16:12:31	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Arkansas gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?	No	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x2c4d03…
10-28 15:37:37	Will the US national average gas price be less than $4.2300 on October 29?	No	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x208188…
10-28 15:18:38	Will the US national average gas price be between $4.2300 and $4.2399 on October 29?	No	SELL	10	31¢	$3	0xe472cd…
10-28 15:16:04	Will the US national average gas price be between $4.2300 and $4.2399 on October 29?	No	SELL	10	37¢	$4	0x50adaf…
10-28 15:07:22	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?	No	SELL	1	64¢	$1	0x7f4ab9…
10-28 15:07:17	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x7ac497…
10-28 15:05:31	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?	No	SELL	1	64¢	$1	0xdfec2d…
10-28 15:05:25	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x572396…
10-28 15:02:40	Will PSOE receive between 26% and 28% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0x0aca5f…
10-28 14:44:44	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of November 7?	No	SELL	15	81¢	$12	0xff0d1c…
10-28 14:44:43	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of November 7?	No	SELL	5	81¢	$4	0xaf3e3d…
10-28 14:44:01	Allstate (ALL) Q3 property-liability combined ratio <86%?	No	SELL	20	59¢	$12	0x042417…
10-28 14:37:19	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 7.5% to 8.5%?	No	SELL	20	54¢	$11	0xdd9f12…
10-28 14:13:13	will us gas price be between 4pt23 and 4pt24 on october 29 2026	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x793b61…
10-28 13:50:37	Will Magomed Ankalaev fight Carlos Ulberg next?	No	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0x6187b7…
10-28 13:50:01	Will two people dissent the October Fed decision?	No	SELL	2	68¢	$1	0x919a8d…
10-28 13:50:01	Will two people dissent the October Fed decision?	No	SELL	3	68¢	$2	0x4e6b1b…
10-28 13:49:04	Starbucks (SBUX) Q4 global comparable store sales growth 5% to 7%?	No	SELL	20	72¢	$14	0xa96c14…
10-28 13:38:43	Microsoft (MSFT) Q1 Azure revenue growth (constant currency) 46% to 48%?	No	SELL	20	44¢	$9	0x97fb8d…
10-28 13:33:02	Will PARIVISION win PARI Universe?	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0xe8ad8e…
10-28 13:30:07	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Illinois gubernatorial election by 30% or more?	No	SELL	20	82¢	$16	0x381c1d…
10-28 13:23:08	Will Magomed Ankalaev fight Carlos Ulberg next?	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x0f0082…
10-28 13:19:35	Will Democrats win exactly 3 House seats in Wisconsin in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	SELL	20	56¢	$11	0xeea125…
10-28 13:11:47	Will two people dissent the October Fed decision?	No	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x0f95e9…
10-28 13:04:29	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 7.5% to 8.5%?	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xc70f89…
10-28 12:56:41	Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 26-November 1?	No	SELL	20	66¢	$13	0x7ed912…
10-28 12:55:56	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election by 5%-10%?	No	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0x63d5c5…
10-28 12:54:08	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Illinois gubernatorial election by 30% or more?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x0afc2d…
10-28 12:52:29	Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 26-November 1?	No	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x7c29a8…
10-28 12:43:29	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of November 7?	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0xbfef0d…
10-28 12:42:10	Starbucks (SBUX) Q4 global comparable store sales growth 5% to 7%?	No	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x2ade8a…
10-28 12:36:37	Will Democrats win exactly 3 House seats in Wisconsin in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x011af2…
10-28 12:33:41	Microsoft (MSFT) Q1 Azure revenue growth (constant currency) 46% to 48%?	No	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x398a35…
10-28 12:27:43	Allstate (ALL) Q3 property-liability combined ratio <86%?	No	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0xadc96a…
10-28 11:52:38	Yum! Brands (YUM) Q3 worldwide same-restaurant sales growth -0.5% to 0.5%?	No	SELL	2	62¢	$1	0xb50c89…
10-28 08:53:49	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Arkansas gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?	No	SELL	7	77¢	$5	0xab4eb8…
10-28 08:13:55	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0x8b80a8…
10-28 07:45:11	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Arkansas gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?	No	SELL	13	76¢	$10	0x4cb7cb…
10-28 07:44:50	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Arkansas gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xd4f122…
10-28 07:21:53	Will the Netanyahu bloc win the Israeli election by 3-4 seats?	No	SELL	20	66¢	$13	0x6edec5…
10-28 07:10:19	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x876f11…