Careful-Kitten — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$96

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

64.3%

Resolved

405

Trades

996

lifetime

Volume

$1.78K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-24

last 10-27 17:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 52 days

Categories

Crypto

89% 49% -$51

Politics

5% 60% -$7

Other

4% 47% -$9

Sports

2% 8% -$20

Tech

0% 0% -$8

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No		+8	$5	84¢	$6	+$1	10-27 15:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 21:00 UTC	5	$21	38	15	+23	Down	-$15	03-01 21:04
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	2	$21	12	12	+0	No	+$1	04-23 20:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	6	$21	76	9	+67	Down	-$5	10-27 16:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 10:25 UTC	4	$18	21	21	+0	Down	+$6	02-25 10:27
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 11:40 UTC	4	$16	10	10	+0	Down	+$2	02-25 11:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	11	$15	114	14	+100	Up	+$1	10-21 17:29
nba bkn phi 2026 03 14 total 190pt5	2	$15	11	11	+0	Over	-$5	03-14 19:17
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-05 11:50 UTC	2	$15	13	13	+0	Down	+$4	03-05 11:52
will israel strike lebanon on february 24 2026	2	$15	10	10	+0	No	+$5	02-25 07:46
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-08 16:50 UTC	8	$14	13	13	+0	Down	+$2	03-08 16:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	5	$13	13	13	+0	Up	+$3	10-27 17:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-26 08:40 UTC	2	$13	120	120	+0	Up	+$8	03-26 08:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 20:55 UTC	2	$13	10	10	+0	Down	+$3	03-01 20:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-14 07:30 UTC	7	$13	16	16	+0	Down	+$5	03-14 07:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-05 17:45 UTC	5	$13	10	10	+0	Down	+$3	03-05 17:48
will donald trumps tie be blue	2	$12	7	7	+0	No	+$2	02-25 07:46
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-14 11:50 UTC	5	$12	14	14	+0	Up	+$6	03-14 11:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	7	$11	54	19	+36	Up	-$1	05-27 18:29
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	2	$11	6	6	+0	No	+$1	04-23 18:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	5	$11	16	16	+0	Down	+$3	05-21 09:14
will israel strike gaza on february 25 2026	2	$11	7	7	+0	No	+$1	02-25 20:00
will apple intelligence be said 5 times during the nyc apple event on march 4	2	$11	8	8	+0	No	+$1	02-25 21:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-13 14:05 UTC	4	$11	8	8	+0	Up	+$1	03-13 14:10
us strike on somalia by february 28 399	2	$11	26	26	+0	Yes	+$1	02-26 08:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-05 17:55 UTC	5	$11	33	8	+25	Down	+$1	03-05 17:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-05 10:35 UTC	3	$11	6	6	+0	Down	+$1	03-05 10:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-09 09:30 UTC	2	$10	8	8	+0	Up	+$4	03-09 09:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	4	$10	7	7	+0	Down	+$2	05-01 14:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 20:35 UTC	4	$10	36	10	+26	Down	$0	03-01 20:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-08 16:15 UTC	4	$10	9	9	+0	Up	+$2	03-08 16:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 17:38:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xe435af…
10-27 17:35:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x014f75…
10-27 17:34:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	SELL	6	97¢	$6	0xb2084c…
10-27 17:33:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x59630d…
10-27 17:32:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x72a1e2…
10-27 17:31:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	SELL	7	33¢	$2	0xb0fb8a…
10-27 17:31:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0xa49735…
10-27 16:05:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x2562fa…
10-27 16:03:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xaa5e21…
10-27 16:03:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xeed99e…
10-27 16:02:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x74aa64…
10-27 16:02:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xe7d93c…
10-27 16:01:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	SELL	9	87¢	$8	0x05c4c8…
10-27 15:59:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x5dd0fc…
10-27 15:58:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xb989fc…
10-27 15:57:33	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0xb51556…
10-21 18:02:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x797af3…
10-21 18:01:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	SELL	14	33¢	$5	0xe15777…
10-21 18:01:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xe07837…
10-21 18:00:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xa67c94…
10-21 17:58:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xe02ab2…
10-21 17:57:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x614ed4…
10-21 17:57:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x9ac176…
10-21 17:56:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	SELL	4	68¢	$3	0x975f44…
10-21 17:55:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0xa876fc…
10-21 17:51:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x4a5aff…
10-21 17:51:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x10a6c3…
10-21 17:50:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0x70e19b…
10-21 17:50:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xf93ed2…
10-21 17:29:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x53da3c…
10-21 17:29:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0x2e2f81…
10-21 17:28:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xd2efdb…
10-21 17:28:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	SELL	4	71¢	$3	0x0d781f…
10-21 17:27:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x3ce0e8…
10-21 17:27:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xf2d4a4…
10-21 17:27:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	SELL	3	47¢	$1	0xd88ff3…
10-21 17:27:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xcd416b…
10-21 17:26:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	SELL	5	53¢	$3	0xd73456…
10-21 17:26:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x1ca522…
10-21 17:25:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x48ac5a…
07-07 18:06:19	Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	BUY	9	27¢	$2	0x985d40…
06-29 17:39:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-29 17:35 UTC	Up	SELL	33	5¢	$2	0x8f071c…
06-29 17:38:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-29 17:35 UTC	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x52ef67…
06-29 17:37:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-29 17:35 UTC	Up	SELL	3	33¢	$1	0xf3a63b…
06-29 17:36:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-29 17:35 UTC	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x34779f…
06-15 10:27:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-15 10:25 UTC	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xe9481f…
06-15 10:27:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-15 10:25 UTC	Down	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0xf410c2…
06-15 10:26:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-15 10:25 UTC	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xe40774…
06-12 10:00:04	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	No	BUY	46	4¢	$2	0xbad6f7…
06-11 18:49:25	ufc cir ale30 2026 06 14	Ciryl Gane	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x12fe8e…
06-11 18:49:07	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14 totals 4pt5	Over	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x6b61e4…
06-11 18:34:12	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	No	BUY	93	1¢	$1	0x33b9c7…
06-11 18:32:46	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?	No	BUY	127	4¢	$5	0xb7736c…
05-30 17:39:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xe5c167…
05-27 18:29:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x9279dc…
05-27 18:28:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x6a80f8…
05-27 18:28:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	SELL	19	29¢	$5	0x5a3990…
05-27 18:27:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xbdc63a…
05-27 18:26:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xd06b27…
05-27 18:25:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x4ad26c…
05-27 18:25:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xc5036c…
05-27 18:21:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	SELL	2	71¢	$1	0x4ec95c…
05-27 18:20:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x6f815c…
05-27 18:13:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	17	7¢	$1	0xfc3f01…
05-27 18:11:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x9be235…
05-27 18:09:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	SELL	4	55¢	$2	0x998886…
05-27 18:08:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xd4d973…
05-27 18:07:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	SELL	5	64¢	$3	0x0725b3…
05-27 18:06:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xe18a68…
05-27 18:05:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x388f98…
05-26 16:59:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	SELL	2	82¢	$2	0x8c4b64…
05-26 16:57:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x938d38…
05-25 10:08:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x134241…
05-22 21:49:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x1656e2…
05-22 21:46:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0x1d52f9…
05-22 21:45:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x613ba9…
05-22 21:40:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xaa9968…
05-22 21:39:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xf79370…
05-22 21:34:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	SELL	12	11¢	$1	0x25e91b…
05-22 21:33:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x0ec539…
05-22 21:29:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	SELL	2	85¢	$1	0x1a6d20…
05-22 21:28:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x19c704…
05-22 21:27:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	SELL	4	57¢	$2	0x8dd22c…
05-22 21:25:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x468c9f…
05-22 21:24:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	SELL	4	94¢	$3	0xfd5571…
05-22 21:23:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xd550aa…
05-22 21:20:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xedc83a…
05-22 16:28:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x2e586f…
05-22 16:25:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x3ab2a1…
05-22 16:24:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0x3db5bf…
05-22 16:24:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xdb0da4…
05-22 16:23:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	SELL	40	4¢	$2	0x87bd22…
05-22 16:23:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x2f4468…
05-22 13:25:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xac57b6…
05-22 13:23:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xe0309d…
05-22 13:22:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xbc692a…
05-22 11:29:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	SELL	100	2¢	$2	0x6fc0d1…
05-22 11:27:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xd3fa13…
05-22 11:08:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0xd96900…
05-22 11:08:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x2f6a0a…