Mellow-Adjustment — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$11

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

97.4%

Resolved

2,033

Trades

2,097

lifetime

Volume

$20.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-21

last 10-27 13:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 213 days

Categories

Other

80% 98% +$7

Sports

15% 100% +$3

Crypto

3% 97% +$1

Tech

1% 100% +$0

Politics

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

74 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 13:12:06	Guangzhou Open: Xinran Sun vs Mananchaya Sawangkaew	Xinran Sun	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb6eb88…
10-25 09:31:00	Ningbo: Semen Pankin vs Maxim Zhukov	Semen Pankin	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x946f80…
10-24 13:22:41	Will Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x33bf5e…
10-24 13:22:09	Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x66618b…
10-23 16:52:27	Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz	Taylor Fritz	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xcda5b2…
10-23 06:10:03	Japan Women's Open: Talia Gibson vs Ashlyn Krueger	Ashlyn Krueger	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe54d51…
10-22 20:16:33	Lyon Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima	Brandon Nakashima	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x15c267…
10-20 18:47:44	Will Sabah FK win on 2026-10-20?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xda3986…
10-20 18:39:11	Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-20?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x56bb3e…
10-19 18:51:59	Lyon Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Moise Kouame	Moise Kouame	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xfe21f3…
10-18 03:35:38	Notre Dame vs. BYU	BYU	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x663bde…
10-15 20:32:35	W35 Heraklion: Juliette Mazzoni vs Miriam Bianca Bulgaru	Juliette Mazzoni	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xf35ea9…
10-15 19:37:40	Santa Cruz 2: Guido Justo vs Juan Manuel La Serna	Juan Manuel La Serna	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb6be96…
10-14 20:56:43	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-14?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2bbf41…
10-14 11:41:26	atp medvede tsitsip 2026 10 13	Daniil Medvedev	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4bcf83…
10-13 20:58:58	Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-10-13?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x180a03…
10-13 15:56:03	wta pohanko wan 2026 10 13	Mia Pohankova	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x57ae77…
10-13 14:15:22	Catania: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Federico Bondioli	Enrico Dalla Valle	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x783c5f…
10-13 01:39:53	Thunder vs. Hawks	Hawks	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x5e770b…
10-12 16:35:44	Olbia: Lorenzo Carboni vs Mackenzie McDonald	Lorenzo Carboni	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x945dd6…
10-12 09:30:58	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Jiri Lehecka vs Rafael Jodar	Rafael Jodar	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8766f6…
10-11 20:16:09	Bengals vs. Dolphins	Bengals	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x0dd170…
10-11 10:49:53	Olbia: Dimitar Kuzmanov vs Ryan Peniston	Dimitar Kuzmanov	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x19b5da…
10-11 10:26:12	Olbia: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Viktor Durasovic	Viktor Durasovic	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc01375…
10-10 11:09:07	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Learner Tien vs Zachary Svajda	Learner Tien	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x320a84…
10-10 10:21:45	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alejandro Tabilo vs Pablo Carreno Busta	Pablo Carreno Busta	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x604319…
10-09 02:10:00	Missouri State vs. Western Kentucky	Western Kentucky	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc0f768…
10-08 07:16:29	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Hamad Medjedovic	Thiago Agustin Tirante	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x5c2dda…
10-07 14:42:13	Villena: Edas Butvilas vs Max Hans Rehberg	Max Hans Rehberg	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xb92822…
10-07 10:16:24	Samsun: Elena Pridankina vs Anna Blinkova	Anna Blinkova	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x5456cc…
10-07 06:29:17	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Adrian Mannarino vs Nikoloz Basilashvili	Adrian Mannarino	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x97a901…
10-07 05:49:08	W15 Maanshan: Anna Yang vs Darja Suvirdjonkova	Anna Yang	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xdd1d75…
10-06 20:46:24	Will Spain win on 2026-10-06?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x9f4ecf…
10-06 16:07:30	Palermo: Kalin Ivanovski vs Alejandro Moro Canas	Alejandro Moro Canas	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5863fb…
10-04 23:23:16	LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 1 Winner	Team Liquid	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc96fde…
10-04 20:17:40	Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Astralis (BO5) - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs	Astralis	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x315671…
10-04 07:45:10	Wuning 3: Ryan Seggerman vs Naoki Tajima	Ryan Seggerman	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x03946c…
10-03 14:50:27	China Open: Elena Rybakina vs Alina Charaeva	Alina Charaeva	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xaa36f7…
10-03 06:09:56	Montana State vs. Idaho	Idaho	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x1404f2…
10-03 02:52:56	Pittsburgh vs. Virginia Tech	Pittsburgh	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xda31ea…
10-02 14:15:38	Will Bolivia win on 2026-10-04?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xf91128…
10-02 14:12:30	Will Bolivia vs. Gambia end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xa38331…
10-01 20:46:20	Will Portugal win on 2026-10-01?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x76f269…
10-01 20:36:06	Will Malta win on 2026-10-01?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xbaa68d…
10-01 20:36:05	Will Wales vs. Norway end in a draw?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xad59f9…
10-01 12:05:32	atp grieksp rublev 2026 09 29	Andrey Rublev	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc22bcd…
10-01 11:43:51	wta dart qu 2026 09 30	Harriet Dart	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xe245db…
10-01 06:03:11	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x986b5b…
10-01 05:16:09	mlb chc sd 2026 09 30	San Diego Padres	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x05bce6…
09-30 23:54:54	Will China PR vs. Turkmenistan end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x23b3a6…
09-30 12:49:45	atp kuzmano sachko 2026 09 30	Vitaliy Sachko	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xe779d7…
09-30 01:58:18	Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs	Canadiens	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x44d7df…
09-29 20:38:38	Will Slovakia win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x68b346…
09-29 13:58:54	atp cretu rocha 2026 09 28	Henrique Rocha	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5347fe…
09-29 13:18:54	atp giustin sperle 2026 09 29	Lorenzo Giustino	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xb4f971…
09-29 13:15:57	atp medvede rublev 2026 09 29	Daniil Medvedev	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x27a044…
09-29 06:34:50	wta ribera you 2026 09 28	Marina Bassols Ribera	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x12488a…
09-29 04:59:21	China Open, Qualification: Harriet Dart vs Yexin Ma	Harriet Dart	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x020309…
09-28 20:43:08	atp zink krueger 2026 09 28	Mitchell Krueger	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x0caa2a…
09-28 10:07:56	atp vallejo daniel 2026 09 28	Adolfo Vallejo	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xbcd0b2…
09-27 20:35:44	Chargers vs. Bills	Bills	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xde417e…
09-27 14:05:48	atp droguet mayot 2026 09 27	Titouan Droguet	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xc89504…
09-27 13:30:41	atp harri hurkacz 2026 09 27	Hubert Hurkacz	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x031b31…
09-27 12:11:59	atp safiull bu 2026 09 27	Roman Safiullin	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xa69ffd…
09-27 00:28:21	Wisconsin vs. Penn State	Wisconsin	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x56d994…
09-26 23:23:48	Oklahoma vs. Georgia	Georgia	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc6a764…
09-26 22:45:11	TCU vs. UCF	UCF	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x614de3…
09-26 19:53:26	Texas vs. Tennessee	Texas	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x48eb09…
09-26 12:18:26	wta fernand chwalin 2026 09 26	Leylah Fernandez	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x330075…
09-25 23:29:48	Army vs. Temple	Army	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x260e0e…
09-25 23:29:02	Army vs. Temple	Army	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xd914df…
09-25 22:57:44	atp prado barrena 2026 09 25	Alex Barrena	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x7f4ab0…
09-25 10:13:02	atp marozsa daniel 2026 09 25	Fabian Marozsan	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3003d3…
09-24 20:45:14	Will Norway win on 2026-09-24?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8d80ed…
09-24 09:38:48	Singapore Open: Xinyu Wang vs Joanna Garland	Xinyu Wang	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x4cee59…
09-23 22:37:44	mlb min sf 2026 09 23	Minnesota Twins	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x332818…
09-23 16:19:31	bitcoin above 84k on september 23 2026	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x93a079…
09-23 04:45:13	wta tararud park 2026 09 22	Lanlana Tararudee	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xe1da0f…
09-21 18:44:37	wta naito aksu 2026 09 21	Ayla Aksu	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xa8d4b3…
09-21 13:01:33	Solana Up or Down - September 21, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x9c0a0a…
09-20 22:25:38	Browns vs. Buccaneers	Browns	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xbd4289…
09-20 21:48:07	Will Panaitolikos Agrinio win on 2026-09-20?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd7cb71…
09-20 21:08:25	Will CD Leganés vs. Granada CF end in a draw?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xcfc990…
09-20 02:59:36	will ethereum dip to 2600 in september 2026	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc1831c…
09-20 00:02:52	Southeastern Louisiana vs. Louisiana-Monroe	Southeastern Louisiana	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x40485b…
09-19 20:39:09	NC State vs. Vanderbilt	Vanderbilt	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb5fc7d…
09-18 19:32:16	Will AC Oulu win on 2026-09-18?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb856ea…
09-17 17:27:46	lol ckz esb 2026 09 19 game1	CITA Kaizen	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb235ed…
09-17 17:00:22	ethereum up or down september 17 2026 12pm et	Up	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x692a3b…
09-17 14:00:55	bitcoin up or down september 17 2026 9am et	Down	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xad1d11…
09-17 04:20:18	itf ishii1 rajeck1 2026 09 17	Sayaka Ishii	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3628d6…
09-17 00:30:54	Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs Yawara Esports - Map 2 Winner	Bounty Hunters Esports	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x96a2ba…
09-16 12:24:46	atp canas lagutin 2026 09 16	Alejandro Moro Canas	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xdc6eb8…
09-15 13:42:09	European T20 Premier League: Amsterdam Flames vs Dublin Guardians	Amsterdam Flames	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf08f69…
09-14 10:07:30	Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs BET-M 33 (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Group B	Team Nemesis	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3cbff0…
09-14 01:22:55	wta bucsa andrees 2026 09 13	Cristina Bucsa	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xdb91a8…
09-13 14:59:06	atp zhukov loof 2026 09 13	Thijmen Loof	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x658ea7…
09-13 10:58:09	cs2 tyloo dep 2026 09 13 game3	TYLOO	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xbe75a5…
09-13 10:57:07	cs2 tyloo dep 2026 09 13	TYLOO	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x708097…
09-13 02:51:28	Iowa State vs. Iowa	Iowa	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2c7b6b…

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will wti reach 90 in july 2026 from july 27	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	07-31 21:47
Map Handicap: DRIP (-1.5) vs m1x (+1.5)	2	$20	10	10	+0	m1x	+$0	05-07 11:00
Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?	2	$20	10	10	+0	Yes	+$0	08-12 23:04
alien abduction at brazil vs scotland game in miami 20260624221224553	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	06-25 02:03
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026?	2	$20	10	10	+0	Yes	+$0	03-23 13:53
LoL: GTZ Esports vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season	3	$20	10	10	+0	The Otter Side	+$0	05-25 18:11
wta dilek falkows 2026 07 14	2	$20	10	10	+0	Weronika Falkowska	+$0	07-14 15:35
Will Spencer Roach be the Republican nominee for FL-19?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	08-25 15:36
chris moneymaker 20260707142702023	2	$20	10	10	+0	Yes	+$0	07-24 05:32
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 2?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	05-02 01:35
Will Kai and Speed have between 50 and 69 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	08-13 11:27
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime Win ATP Montreal	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	08-06 09:10
Exact Score: Notts County FC 3 - 0 Salford City FC?	2	$20	10	10	+0	Yes	+$0	05-28 16:31
highest temperature in shanghai on april 9 2026 28c	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	04-09 07:09
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	06-01 23:08
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 1.5	3	$20	10	10	+0	Over	+$0	05-28 16:31
Will Bob Rommel be the Republican nominee for FL-19?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	08-25 15:36
crint ivo mli 2026 05 25	3	$20	10	10	+0	Mali	+$0	06-04 04:48
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: August Holmgren vs Daniel Jade	2	$20	10	10	+0	August Holmgren	+$0	05-30 04:48
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	06-29 14:02
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 2.5	3	$20	10	10	+0	Over	+$0	05-28 16:31
Cruzeiro EC vs. CD Universidad Católica: O/U 4.5	2	$20	10	10	+0	Under	+$0	04-21 19:17
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-08-03?	2	$20	10	10	+0	Yes	+$0	08-03 23:14
Will CXMT’s market cap be 400 billion yuan or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2026?	2	$20	20	0	+20	Yes	+$0	07-27 07:31
blast open rotterdam 2026 will a player break something during a game	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	03-31 03:59
fl1 psg nan 2026 04 22 total 1pt5	2	$20	10	10	+0	Over	$0	04-22 17:37
Istanbul: Laura Pigossi vs Lucia Cortez Llorca	2	$20	10	10	+0	Laura Pigossi	$0	05-05 15:54
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	$0	04-01 01:30
Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	2	$20	10	10	+0	Yes	$0	04-01 01:53
bitcoin above 78k on april 24	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	$0	04-24 17:13