Weak-Commotion — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$468

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

86.6%

Resolved

859

Trades

2,030

lifetime

Volume

$102.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$51

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-04 21:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 97 days

Categories

Other

87% 81% -$360

Politics

9% 68% -$155

Sports

2% 96% +$53

Crypto

2% 88% -$15

Tech

0% 67% +$11

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
andrew tate posts february 13 february 20 160 189	4	$1.6K	963	642	+321	No	+$0	02-20 21:04
iran strike on qatar by february 28 2026 334	11	$1.6K	1,060	1,060	+0	Yes	-$329	02-28 19:28
us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983	4	$1.3K	567	916	-349	No	-$3	01-03 23:04
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 15 million 268	9	$1.3K	1,401	1,401	+0	Yes	+$51	02-16 03:25
elon musk of tweets january 2 january 9 480 499	15	$1.1K	720	700	+20	No	-$28	01-08 02:17
maduro out by january 31 2026 318	2	$1.0K	503	503	+0	Yes	+$2	01-03 11:33
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 5 million	11	$978	500	500	+0	Yes	+$3	02-16 03:06
highest temperature in ankara on january 31 8c	6	$929	931	0	+931	Yes	+$1	01-31 21:43
elon musk of tweets december 30 january 6 580 599	6	$893	450	450	+0	No	+$6	01-06 17:13
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 360 379	7	$846	985	50	+935	Yes	+$134	02-10 15:30
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	7	$817	602	602	+0	No	-$5	01-24 19:02
nba den bkn 2026 01 04	5	$796	400	400	+0	Nets	+$4	01-05 00:01
new 10 us blanket tariff goes into effect by february 28	4	$755	400	400	+0	Yes	+$3	02-22 01:37
elon musk of tweets january 26 january 28 140 164	5	$719	362	362	+0	No	+$4	01-28 21:09
highest temperature in seoul on february 10 2026 3c	7	$698	350	350	+0	Yes	+$1	02-10 15:19
highest temperature in ankara on february 12 2026 12c	23	$681	550	137	+413	No	+$5	02-12 14:36
elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 440 459	4	$673	676	0	+676	No	+$3	01-30 10:25
highest temperature in seoul on february 10 2026 4c	8	$662	332	332	+0	No	+$1	02-10 15:20
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 380 399	10	$603	668	668	+0	No	-$159	02-10 15:09
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by March 31, 2026?	9	$602	454	454	+0	Yes	+$56	02-28 06:14
elon musk of tweets december 30 january 6 620 639	2	$598	300	300	+0	No	+$1	01-06 06:53
highest temperature in buenos aires on january 30 35c	1	$572	573	0	+573	No	+$1	01-30 22:47
highest temperature in seattle on february 15 2026 46 47f	5	$569	601	0	+601	Yes	+$32	02-16 03:36
highest temperature in atlanta on february 15 2026 66forhigher	2	$545	273	273	+0	No	-$1	02-16 00:07
highest temperature in buenos aires on february 4 2026 31corbelow	3	$544	551	0	+551	Yes	+$7	02-04 21:24
elon musk of tweets february 2 february 4 140 164	5	$531	268	268	+0	No	+$4	02-04 18:48
highest temperature in nyc on january 16 36forhigher	6	$520	530	0	+530	No	+$10	01-17 02:09
highest temperature in buenos aires on january 18 30c	3	$510	263	250	+13	No	+$2	01-18 23:38
highest temperature in dallas on january 31 32 33f	4	$499	500	0	+500	Yes	+$1	02-01 02:03
highest temperature in seattle on february 6 2026 56 57f	10	$498	498	0	+498	Yes	+$0	02-07 11:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-04 21:28:46	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	188	85¢	$160	0x39e21d…
10-04 21:28:23	Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	Yes	SELL	362	48¢	$173	0x94ef9b…
09-15 01:18:55	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?	Yes	BUY	82	97¢	$80	0xe4ffb3…
09-15 01:18:25	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?	Yes	BUY	66	38¢	$25	0xd52643…
09-15 00:58:54	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro?	Yes	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0xee81f1…
09-15 00:58:27	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?	Yes	BUY	18	96¢	$17	0xb53f24…
09-15 00:53:01	Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	Yes	BUY	362	83¢	$300	0x266e07…
06-11 17:51:39	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11?	Yes	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x59cc6e…
06-11 17:51:22	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 11?	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x71f9c7…
06-11 17:51:03	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11?	No	BUY	30	87¢	$26	0x30d46d…
06-11 16:59:18	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0xed6559…
06-08 18:49:09	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 8?	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xd39562…
06-08 18:00:10	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 8?	No	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0x8e5d72…
06-07 18:50:51	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 7?	No	SELL	261	2¢	$6	0x3d4833…
06-07 18:44:34	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 7?	Yes	BUY	280	2¢	$5	0xd8c9ac…
06-07 18:44:00	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 7?	No	BUY	118	42¢	$50	0x4b5cf4…
06-07 18:40:43	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 7?	No	BUY	144	22¢	$31	0x04eb73…
06-06 14:46:16	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 6?	No	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0x3dac77…
06-06 14:06:31	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 6?	No	BUY	35	97¢	$34	0x57eefb…
06-05 15:43:33	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 5?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x968441…
06-04 17:43:09	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 4?	No	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0x3b2c1a…
06-04 17:40:03	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 4?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x5477cd…
06-04 17:30:28	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 4?	No	BUY	58	86¢	$50	0xbd0636…
06-04 16:48:07	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 4?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x181a3f…
06-03 17:47:07	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 3?	No	BUY	57	88¢	$50	0x4eba49…
06-03 17:45:40	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 3?	No	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0xaa4e3e…
06-02 14:59:04	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 2?	No	BUY	56	89¢	$50	0xbfe5c9…
06-01 18:55:19	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 1?	No	BUY	52	97¢	$50	0x19a86f…
06-01 18:54:36	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 1?	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x507e21…
06-01 17:59:00	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C or below on June 1?	No	BUY	9	64¢	$6	0x5b0705…
06-01 17:58:34	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C or below on June 1?	No	BUY	11	64¢	$7	0x9dc8e4…
06-01 17:58:15	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C or below on June 1?	No	BUY	4	64¢	$3	0xe4ce86…
06-01 17:54:08	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 1?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x74522b…
06-01 17:53:54	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 1?	No	BUY	15	94¢	$14	0x3e1ea9…
06-01 17:49:05	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 1?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x5b9f5d…
05-30 18:40:53	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0x0a66c8…
05-30 17:53:22	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 30?	Yes	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x465c69…
05-28 19:21:30	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 29?	Yes	SELL	13	8¢	$1	0x5301cb…
05-28 19:12:52	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 29?	Yes	BUY	13	7¢	$1	0x31bac8…
05-28 18:57:56	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 28?	No	SELL	108	95¢	$103	0xbf84ed…
05-28 18:03:29	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 28?	No	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0x6e9a6f…
05-28 17:23:54	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 28?	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0xcc24c6…
05-28 17:21:17	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 28?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x7792cc…
05-28 17:21:15	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 28?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x0ebc01…
05-28 16:59:21	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 28?	No	BUY	38	78¢	$30	0x0bf6ee…
05-13 19:42:39	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	126	28¢	$35	0x32fda3…
04-09 11:01:43	Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26?	Yes	BUY	55	88¢	$48	0xb43cc4…
04-07 23:13:07	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	SELL	65	93¢	$60	0xe44b6a…
04-07 23:13:07	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	SELL	2	93¢	$1	0x3d73ec…
04-07 23:13:07	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	SELL	2	93¢	$1	0x169bcc…
04-07 23:13:07	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0x0d9ed1…
04-07 23:13:05	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	SELL	30	93¢	$28	0x73e5c8…
04-07 23:02:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	BUY	43	83¢	$36	0xa57e18…
04-07 23:01:33	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0xe6ba26…
04-07 22:58:41	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0xc30e99…
04-07 22:57:13	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	SELL	80	7¢	$6	0x55f404…
04-07 15:21:09	highest temperature in sao paulo on april 7 2026 29c	No	BUY	10	55¢	$5	0x072121…
04-07 15:13:51	highest temperature in sao paulo on april 7 2026 29c	No	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xfa4e1b…
04-07 15:13:13	highest temperature in sao paulo on april 7 2026 29c	No	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x52825a…
04-07 15:13:11	highest temperature in sao paulo on april 7 2026 29c	No	BUY	3	55¢	$2	0x7c07db…
04-06 22:00:53	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xc84afa…
04-06 21:49:37	highest temperature in buenos aires on april 6 2026 21c	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x68974c…
04-06 21:22:53	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0xe64a26…
04-06 21:12:19	highest temperature in buenos aires on april 6 2026 20c	No	BUY	48	99¢	$48	0xa7e045…
04-06 21:12:07	highest temperature in buenos aires on april 6 2026 20c	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xed590b…
04-06 20:53:59	highest temperature in sao paulo on april 6 2026 33corhigher	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x50e70f…
04-03 14:45:47	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	30	66¢	$20	0xc5a072…
04-02 22:30:01	Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	26	73¢	$19	0x121ff7…
04-02 22:27:49	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x6c8f2b…
04-02 19:33:33	Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x696447…
04-02 05:44:01	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x8f63d5…
04-02 04:42:19	highest temperature in taipei on april 2 2026 25c	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0xcff5dc…
04-02 04:41:49	highest temperature in taipei on april 2 2026 26c	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xc0ba74…
04-02 04:34:53	will iran take military action against a gulf state on march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0xdb3801…
04-02 04:15:07	will iran take military action against a gulf state on march 26 2026	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x01074a…
04-02 01:11:17	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	40	92¢	$37	0x78d3cb…
04-02 01:02:19	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	40	91¢	$36	0x0ad6ab…
04-01 15:34:57	highest temperature in london on april 1 2026 15c	No	SELL	8	96¢	$8	0xccda12…
04-01 10:49:41	will iran strike oman again in march	No	BUY	35	77¢	$27	0x5d04af…
04-01 09:36:55	russia military action against kyiv municipality by april 3	No	BUY	14	51¢	$7	0xd6c2a6…
04-01 09:02:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	No	BUY	40	90¢	$36	0x148790…
04-01 08:53:13	will iran strike oman again in march	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xef3a07…
04-01 08:33:01	russia military action against kyiv municipality by april 3	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x845969…
04-01 07:33:15	russia military action against kyiv municipality by april 3	No	BUY	5	51¢	$2	0xb48abb…
04-01 04:13:39	highest temperature in london on april 1 2026 16c	No	BUY	14	97¢	$14	0x134c0d…
04-01 03:49:19	highest temperature in london on april 1 2026 16c	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0xe68f07…
04-01 03:34:01	highest temperature in london on april 1 2026 13c	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x6500c2…
04-01 03:33:53	highest temperature in london on april 1 2026 13c	Yes	BUY	12	6¢	$1	0xac3deb…
04-01 03:19:01	highest temperature in london on april 1 2026 15c	No	BUY	8	72¢	$6	0x407957…
04-01 02:51:23	highest temperature in paris on april 1 2026 14c	No	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0x5ad739…
04-01 02:42:57	highest temperature in ankara on april 1 2026 17corhigher	No	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0xd618b3…
04-01 02:39:25	highest temperature in ankara on april 1 2026 15c	Yes	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0x203545…
04-01 02:38:39	highest temperature in paris on april 1 2026 13c	No	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0xbbd2ac…
04-01 02:22:35	highest temperature in wellington on april 1 2026 17c	Yes	BUY	40	93¢	$37	0x8486d8…
03-31 21:03:11	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	BUY	25	74¢	$18	0x75857f…
03-31 20:58:29	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	SELL	40	97¢	$39	0x6a126f…
03-31 20:56:55	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0xdce379…
03-31 20:53:23	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x5c8680…
03-31 20:52:13	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	No	SELL	44	100¢	$44	0x0fe66c…
03-31 20:51:11	will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	No	SELL	13	100¢	$12	0xdba632…