Poised-Gradient — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$35

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

58.7%

Resolved

Trades

1,771

lifetime

Volume

$5.02K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-31

last 05-06 10:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

57% 40% $-35

Crypto

40% — —

Politics

2% — —

Sports

2% — —

Tech

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 32 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
another us government shutdown by february 14	53	$473	703	703	+0	open	—	02-14 04:30
will bitcoin dip to 50k in february 2026 273 489 988	38	$282	3,505	4,551	-1,046	open	—	02-20 15:05
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	81	$161	10,693	4,559	+6,134	open	—	03-17 19:20
spx up or down on march 2 2026	40	$153	203	188	+15	open	—	03-02 20:57
spx up or down on february 23 2026	45	$147	5,185	95	+5,090	open	—	02-23 19:29
spx up or down on march 11 2026	19	$119	114	115	-2	open	—	03-11 20:51
will bitcoin dip to 55k in february 2026 644 513 935	17	$109	704	704	+0	open	—	02-16 13:18
spx up or down on march 9 2026	22	$109	368	368	+0	open	—	03-09 19:32
spx up or down on march 10 2026	25	$91	139	139	+0	open	—	03-10 19:48
bitcoin above 64k on february 20	22	$82	558	558	+0	open	—	02-20 14:39
spx up or down on april 21 2026	24	$77	267	334	-67	open	—	04-21 19:33
spx opens up or down on march 5 2026	9	$68	160	50	+110	open	—	03-05 13:42
will kevin warsh be formally nominated to be chair of the federal reserve by february 18 2026 264	9	$67	542	510	+31	open	—	02-16 06:07
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29?	11	$67	80	67	+14	open	—	04-29 19:27
btc updown 15m 1770469200	11	$64	85	43	+41	open	—	02-07 13:15
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4?	6	$60	50	50	+0	Down	+$23	05-04 17:12
btc updown 15m 1770462900	12	$50	71	31	+40	open	—	02-07 11:30
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	22	$48	230	0	+230	Up	$-48	05-05 13:46
spx up or down on march 12 2026	20	$42	546	270	+276	open	—	03-12 19:26
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 27?	8	$42	65	59	+6	open	—	04-27 18:52
bitcoin up or down on february 12	4	$42	35	35	+0	open	—	02-12 17:06
btc updown 15m 1770462000	9	$41	39	30	+9	open	—	02-07 11:15
spx up or down on march 31 2026	18	$39	587	243	+345	open	—	03-31 16:46
will kevin warsh be formally nominated to be chair of the federal reserve by february 28 2026 369	6	$39	68	68	+0	open	—	02-24 10:48
spx up or down on march 13 2026	11	$36	70	70	+0	open	—	03-13 19:22
spx opens up or down on march 10 2026	13	$36	70	70	+0	open	—	03-10 12:47
will bad bunny say fuck ice at the super bowl	3	$36	20	30	-10	open	—	02-09 07:12
btc updown 15m 1770459300	7	$30	24	23	+1	open	—	02-07 10:31
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	21	$29	1,678	42	+1,636	open	—	03-12 06:54
spx opens up or down on february 26 2026	2	$29	23	23	+0	open	—	02-26 13:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-06 10:27:34	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0xaabf34…
05-06 10:22:40	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	25	6¢	$2	0xa2b8ab…
05-06 08:55:04	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	15	10¢	$2	0x2b5231…
05-06 08:54:24	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x9e52bb…
05-06 05:07:54	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0xa7667d…
05-06 04:46:50	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 6?	Down	BUY	25	24¢	$6	0xc0f092…
05-05 13:46:08	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0xbf6900…
05-05 13:46:08	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0xab1faf…
05-05 13:12:54	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0xe62742…
05-05 12:33:48	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0xfc2f65…
05-05 12:33:06	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0x4fc827…
05-05 12:30:28	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	30	14¢	$4	0xdd49c3…
05-05 12:20:16	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xe1cdf9…
05-05 11:51:36	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x47d49a…
05-05 11:46:18	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x356c39…
05-05 11:36:36	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	25	22¢	$6	0x46db56…
05-05 10:26:16	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0x5222e1…
05-05 10:23:48	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0x35a194…
05-05 08:43:14	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	3	25¢	$1	0xee7882…
05-05 08:39:40	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	7	25¢	$2	0xae5a4a…
05-05 08:19:24	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xcf8249…
05-05 08:15:22	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0x13e23c…
05-05 07:22:36	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x52a2a4…
05-05 07:02:20	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	11	30¢	$3	0x2babbc…
05-05 06:46:34	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0x2e4ef0…
05-05 06:45:38	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0xa48fa8…
05-05 06:18:56	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	9	30¢	$3	0xdde155…
05-05 05:07:08	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xff4a70…
05-04 17:12:10	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	SELL	9	94¢	$8	0x3b386c…
05-04 17:09:22	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	SELL	21	94¢	$20	0x09e914…
05-04 16:22:48	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	SELL	3	86¢	$2	0x20e404…
05-04 15:15:48	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	BUY	3	50¢	$1	0x6ee7c0…
05-04 15:03:40	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 4?	Up	SELL	20	58¢	$12	0x2a15aa…
05-04 14:53:56	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x0a1549…
05-04 14:42:10	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4?	Down	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0x0e47a2…
05-04 14:32:14	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4?	Up	SELL	20	67¢	$13	0x23cb3e…
05-04 10:03:48	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 4?	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x51fcbc…
05-04 10:03:44	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 4?	Up	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x0ae01d…
05-01 18:24:46	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 1?	Down	BUY	50	3¢	$1	0x396797…
05-01 18:19:16	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 1?	Down	SELL	75	1¢	$1	0x040eef…
05-01 14:03:28	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 1?	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x07d495…
05-01 14:01:00	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 1?	Down	BUY	25	3¢	$1	0xe0a57d…
05-01 09:24:02	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 1?	Down	SELL	5	33¢	$2	0xe968b8…
05-01 05:30:20	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 1?	Down	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x300fed…
04-30 13:09:10	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0x976f52…
04-30 11:22:38	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xce0f7e…
04-30 10:42:42	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	BUY	15	36¢	$5	0x0008e2…
04-30 10:37:16	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0x956be9…
04-30 10:25:22	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0x8367de…
04-30 10:25:20	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0xcddf98…
04-30 10:25:20	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	BUY	11	35¢	$4	0xb6e977…
04-30 10:25:18	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 30?	Down	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x72f402…
04-29 19:29:36	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	Yes	SELL	45	1¢	$0	0x438ca5…
04-29 19:29:32	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	Yes	SELL	55	1¢	$0	0x329ec3…
04-29 19:27:50	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29?	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xcb35f0…
04-29 19:27:08	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29?	Down	BUY	12	65¢	$8	0xeecf93…
04-29 19:26:50	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29?	Up	SELL	12	35¢	$4	0x76136d…
04-29 19:25:58	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29?	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x7b451b…
04-29 19:24:20	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29?	Up	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0x98b6f4…
04-29 19:22:08	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29?	Up	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x4e4e15…
04-29 19:21:16	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29?	Up	SELL	25	35¢	$9	0x54b635…
04-29 19:18:16	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29?	Up	BUY	25	43¢	$11	0xf2f368…
04-29 19:17:34	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29?	Down	SELL	25	53¢	$13	0xda89c9…
04-29 17:48:50	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29?	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x0910df…
04-29 14:56:38	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29?	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x87af27…
04-28 13:39:52	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 28?	Up	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0x07b052…
04-28 12:53:56	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 28?	Up	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0xf08320…
04-28 12:53:10	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 28?	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xe1a266…
04-28 09:34:16	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 28?	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x9f9fed…
04-28 07:45:16	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	Yes	BUY	55	2¢	$1	0x958f4e…
04-28 02:49:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$1	0xa8cd4a…
04-27 18:52:48	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 27?	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x956158…
04-27 18:07:44	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 27?	Down	SELL	0	27¢	$0	0xa116f5…
04-27 18:07:12	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 27?	Down	SELL	19	27¢	$5	0x3da53f…
04-27 17:49:18	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 27?	Down	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0xe1ec09…
04-27 17:37:54	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 27?	Down	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0xa817a6…
04-27 17:33:10	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 27?	Down	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xdcc486…
04-27 17:27:14	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 27?	Down	SELL	20	37¢	$7	0x979eba…
04-27 13:32:48	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 27?	Down	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x2c9e10…
04-27 06:57:34	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0xedf8f5…
04-27 06:45:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x3b5c39…
04-27 06:45:18	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	Yes	BUY	15	4¢	$1	0x16e7b6…
04-27 04:03:04	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xe71afa…
04-27 03:58:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$1	0x6db160…
04-26 14:56:12	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	93	4¢	$4	0x74f638…
04-26 13:59:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	200	1¢	$1	0x3586df…
04-26 13:58:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	600	1¢	$4	0x04fdce…
04-26 12:14:18	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x6d741a…
04-26 07:58:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	18	1¢	$0	0xa3f64d…
04-26 07:57:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	0	1¢	$0	0xf90dcc…
04-26 07:54:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0xffc2c4…
04-26 07:54:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	65	1¢	$0	0xeb72f3…
04-26 07:54:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	36	1¢	$0	0xeae12a…
04-26 07:54:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	22	1¢	$0	0x49a710…
04-26 07:54:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	25	1¢	$0	0x48fd5e…
04-26 07:54:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	25	1¢	$0	0x04f26d…
04-26 07:48:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	400	1¢	$3	0x7148f5…
04-24 15:31:38	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 24?	Down	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0x9cf684…
04-24 15:31:24	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 24?	Down	BUY	3	7¢	$0	0x537caf…
04-24 11:43:00	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?	Yes	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x18b3bf…