Upright-Bonsai — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

30.3%

Resolved

Trades

112

lifetime

Volume

$6.81K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$61

Open exposure

$105

1 position

First seen

2026-04-21

last 06-10 17:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

49% 0% $-3

Politics

49% — —

Sports

1% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No		+110	$107	95¢	$105	$-2	06-03 05:55

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	2	$1.4K	713	713	+0	open	—	04-23 22:00
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	3	$1.2K	629	629	+0	open	—	04-21 03:58
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	10	$471	521	521	+0	open	—	05-29 08:50
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	9	$422	394	394	+0	open	—	06-03 14:08
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	14	$422	564	564	+0	open	—	06-06 04:38
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	8	$416	396	396	+0	open	—	06-10 17:31
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	5	$326	223	113	+110	open	—	06-03 05:55
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	7	$307	337	337	+0	open	—	05-26 06:45
Will Alberta join the US?	12	$267	632	632	+0	open	—	06-08 11:24
israel closes its airspace by june 9	2	$247	125	125	+0	open	—	06-09 13:07
Iran leadership change by June 30?	8	$234	299	299	+0	open	—	06-07 16:38
Iran leadership change by December 31?	6	$225	156	156	+0	open	—	06-08 23:57
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	2	$216	117	117	+0	open	—	05-30 23:17
Iran leadership change by May 31?	6	$214	357	357	+0	open	—	05-29 18:21
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	5	$167	1,371	1,371	+0	Yes	$-3	04-21 23:32
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	2	$108	55	55	+0	open	—	06-05 15:17
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$73	1,375	1,375	+0	No	+$1	04-22 10:13
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	2	$68	45	45	+0	open	—	05-28 16:57
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	3	$16	196	196	+0	open	—	05-26 14:36
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$4	17	17	+0	open	—	04-23 07:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-10 17:31:46	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	115	55¢	$63	0xfe355c…
06-10 12:35:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	55¢	$2	0xd70e45…
06-10 10:05:10	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	35	55¢	$19	0xb1b782…
06-10 06:22:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	52	55¢	$29	0x14f4dd…
06-09 21:35:18	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	205	55¢	$113	0xb54769…
06-09 13:07:01	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	125	99¢	$124	0xf49d78…
06-09 08:45:15	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	125	99¢	$123	0xce03fd…
06-08 23:57:24	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	5	72¢	$4	0xe24ab9…
06-08 23:57:22	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	127	72¢	$91	0xd6844a…
06-08 23:57:22	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	24	72¢	$17	0xba8105…
06-08 22:30:58	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	47	72¢	$34	0xa8cce7…
06-08 22:30:58	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	8	72¢	$6	0x549281…
06-08 22:30:58	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	101	72¢	$73	0x43e93b…
06-08 11:24:34	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	3	4¢	$0	0xe42785…
06-07 16:38:10	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	97	4¢	$4	0xae2310…
06-07 14:53:16	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	97	4¢	$4	0x805a91…
06-07 13:20:58	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	117	5¢	$6	0x4f9ccb…
06-07 13:20:58	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	119	5¢	$6	0x11f9ab…
06-07 13:20:57	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	135	5¢	$6	0x19ddb8…
06-07 09:39:25	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	374	4¢	$17	0x6c4a66…
06-07 05:13:46	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	88	4¢	$4	0x3cd4d6…
06-07 01:52:16	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	88	4¢	$4	0x8c6ca6…
06-06 12:24:58	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	191	50¢	$96	0x527d57…
06-06 11:03:51	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	141	50¢	$70	0xc99277…
06-06 11:03:51	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x3edfbc…
06-06 04:38:00	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	40	4¢	$2	0xc995a4…
06-06 04:38:00	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	118	4¢	$5	0x39e49d…
06-06 00:42:28	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	158	3¢	$4	0xe24de4…
06-05 19:14:09	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	110	96¢	$106	0xd87e15…
06-05 19:14:09	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	4	96¢	$4	0x4d9596…
06-05 16:00:34	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	56	96¢	$54	0xf21226…
06-05 16:00:34	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	58	96¢	$56	0x70bf0e…
06-05 15:17:24	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	55	98¢	$54	0x1f74e6…
06-05 13:34:34	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	55	98¢	$54	0x773cf0…
06-05 01:47:07	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	41	98¢	$40	0x436d27…
06-04 23:48:18	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	41	98¢	$40	0xe27333…
06-03 18:49:30	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	32	2¢	$1	0xd4d1ca…
06-03 18:49:30	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	168	2¢	$4	0xb6640a…
06-03 17:14:31	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x557340…
06-03 17:14:31	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	88	2¢	$2	0x0bc976…
06-03 17:14:30	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	110	2¢	$3	0xc8bfa6…
06-03 14:08:13	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	8	69¢	$6	0x8eee86…
06-03 14:07:27	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	88	69¢	$61	0x68dd36…
06-03 10:41:51	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	96	69¢	$66	0x680c47…
06-03 05:55:09	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	113	97¢	$110	0xac3347…
06-03 04:21:42	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	43	97¢	$42	0x8b3763…
06-03 04:21:40	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	70	97¢	$68	0xc65dae…
06-02 17:39:48	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	26	4¢	$1	0x8a061a…
06-02 17:39:48	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	117	4¢	$5	0x0b8f12…
06-02 13:46:17	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	143	4¢	$6	0x25b6e9…
06-02 10:15:42	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	38	96¢	$36	0x62c1f7…
06-02 10:15:42	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	77	96¢	$74	0x5a530c…
06-02 07:12:08	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	58	96¢	$56	0xeae23b…
06-02 07:12:08	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	57	96¢	$55	0x14c2db…
06-02 01:12:53	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	97	97¢	$94	0x8ed653…
06-02 01:12:51	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0x6cd32e…
06-01 17:34:13	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	124	98¢	$121	0xb10819…
06-01 15:29:24	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	124	98¢	$121	0x467e20…
05-31 07:50:31	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	41	97¢	$40	0x4159b7…
05-31 06:25:45	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	41	97¢	$40	0x86edaa…
05-30 23:17:11	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	117	94¢	$110	0xc04def…
05-30 20:41:55	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	117	91¢	$106	0x9f833f…
05-30 17:26:58	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	101	31¢	$31	0xf11c4d…
05-30 17:26:58	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	69	31¢	$21	0x06fe64…
05-30 15:08:03	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	69	31¢	$21	0x7f4afa…
05-30 15:08:03	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	101	31¢	$31	0x5125b3…
05-29 18:21:44	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	SELL	102	99¢	$101	0xbd7807…
05-29 18:21:44	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x09e793…
05-29 17:04:04	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xc4ae89…
05-29 17:03:23	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	93	99¢	$92	0xb77bfa…
05-29 08:50:49	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	170	6¢	$10	0xf0fe99…
05-29 06:27:18	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	170	5¢	$8	0x4eb366…
05-28 16:57:55	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	45	76¢	$34	0xab5187…
05-28 15:37:08	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	45	74¢	$33	0xa38549…
05-28 11:27:35	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	SELL	251	1¢	$2	0x9dfdff…
05-28 09:02:28	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	BUY	251	1¢	$3	0x130a61…
05-28 03:58:09	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	128	72¢	$92	0x60db42…
05-28 01:54:48	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	128	72¢	$92	0x8aed6e…
05-26 18:17:37	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	66	16¢	$11	0xbc062d…
05-26 16:26:40	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	66	17¢	$11	0x1dbd33…
05-26 14:36:02	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	SELL	110	4¢	$4	0xb1f801…
05-26 14:36:02	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	SELL	86	4¢	$3	0x71a3f0…
05-26 10:16:29	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	196	4¢	$8	0x67fa7a…
05-26 06:45:17	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	SELL	158	26¢	$42	0x4191c8…
05-26 06:45:17	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	SELL	77	26¢	$20	0x28338d…
05-26 03:15:47	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	BUY	235	27¢	$63	0xaf8d73…
05-24 15:02:59	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	33	75¢	$24	0xe76692…
05-24 15:02:57	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	99	75¢	$74	0xec1c6b…
05-24 15:02:57	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0x8f1904…
05-24 11:49:22	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	137	75¢	$103	0xb7c303…
05-24 10:02:36	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	148	77¢	$114	0x37c1e3…
05-24 08:37:48	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	148	75¢	$111	0x5b0ce7…
05-21 22:11:22	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	89	91¢	$81	0x94d2a6…
05-21 22:11:20	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	13	91¢	$12	0xa7ff6a…
05-21 18:07:42	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x9f5a53…
05-21 18:07:42	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x3462ab…
04-23 22:00:24	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	713	96¢	$682	0xc52c7f…
04-23 20:34:52	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	713	96¢	$682	0x47ede5…
04-23 07:50:16	Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	17	12¢	$2	0x89cd4d…
04-23 05:19:22	Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x2454d4…