Pale-Luck — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$18

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.3%

Resolved

294

Trades

295

lifetime

Volume

$3.46K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 11-03 16:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 234 days

Categories

Other

97% 100% +$5

Politics

3% 80% -$23

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

72 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on May 14?	1	$23	24	+24	No	+$0	05-14 13:16
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on May 13?	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	05-13 06:13
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$23	24	+24	No	-$23	05-15 05:25
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 12?	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	05-12 07:21
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on May 11?	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	05-11 11:15
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 10?	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	05-10 09:15
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 9?	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	05-09 09:18
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C or higher on May 8?	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	05-08 12:23
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on May 8?	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	05-08 03:54
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 7?	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	05-07 16:59
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 7?	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	05-07 06:27
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on May 6?	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	05-06 09:13
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on May 5?	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	05-05 11:43
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 4?	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	05-05 02:45
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on May 4?	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	05-04 09:35
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on May 3?	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	05-03 14:58
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on May 2?	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	05-02 09:21
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	1	$22	23	+23	No	+$1	04-12 02:29
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	1	$22	22	+22	No	+$0	04-08 10:24
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	1	$22	22	+22	No	+$0	04-07 07:03
highest temperature in seoul on april 5 2026 13c	1	$22	22	+22	No	+$0	04-05 09:09
highest temperature in shenzhen on april 3 2026 30corhigher	1	$22	22	+22	No	+$0	04-03 12:34
highest temperature in seoul on april 3 2026 19corhigher	1	$22	22	+22	Yes	+$0	04-03 07:09
highest temperature in istanbul on april 2 2026 19corhigher	1	$22	22	+22	No	+$0	04-02 17:44
highest temperature in tokyo on april 2 2026 16c	1	$22	22	+22	Yes	+$0	04-02 13:09
highest temperature in denver on april 1 2026 54 55f	1	$22	22	+22	No	+$0	04-02 01:33
highest temperature in istanbul on april 1 2026 17c	1	$22	22	+22	No	+$0	04-01 15:08
highest temperature in wellington on april 1 2026 17c	1	$22	22	+22	Yes	+$0	04-01 08:46
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	1	$22	22	+22	No	+$0	03-31 08:29
highest temperature in miami on march 30 2026 78 79f	1	$22	22	+22	Yes	+$0	03-31 01:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-03 16:34:19	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on November 4?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xd19972…
11-02 14:09:04	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on November 2?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xa4e8e6…
11-01 09:52:49	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$8	0x060e1b…
10-31 15:45:31	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on October 31?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x13b831…
10-30 14:41:28	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 23°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x33741b…
10-29 17:42:35	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2c56c2…
10-29 09:03:10	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xff055a…
10-28 07:40:17	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on October 28?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7a56ab…
10-27 08:25:06	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x18192d…
10-26 09:18:41	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc17bd3…
10-24 11:38:44	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 24?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x866144…
10-22 10:14:29	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on October 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2212d9…
10-20 07:33:07	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on October 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xce7372…
10-19 09:11:47	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on October 19?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf7472f…
10-18 09:08:56	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on October 18?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x18fd4a…
10-17 14:50:45	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on October 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5af258…
10-16 09:05:49	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on October 16?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xad1258…
10-15 09:21:43	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on October 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x207307…
10-14 09:19:31	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xdfa806…
10-13 14:02:53	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3e1ed8…
10-13 09:12:55	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5e6ff9…
10-12 08:40:37	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on October 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfad993…
10-11 08:19:28	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on October 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2bd808…
10-08 08:27:13	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x96ec46…
10-07 15:20:08	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 7?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x61bdae…
10-06 08:36:54	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3c7462…
10-04 15:12:28	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 30°C on October 4?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe69309…
10-03 08:15:26	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 3?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0f6252…
10-02 11:38:53	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on October 2?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xab6c3d…
10-01 08:24:06	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on October 1?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xba0d80…
09-30 12:24:05	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on September 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x524981…
09-29 14:45:32	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on September 29?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf2cb8e…
09-28 09:47:23	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on September 28?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x412a92…
09-27 08:46:03	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on September 27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd862d1…
09-25 12:27:36	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on September 25?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x39f7f3…
09-24 08:27:33	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on September 24?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa69c5c…
09-23 07:17:40	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on September 23?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfa868d…
09-22 08:09:10	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on September 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5fd51f…
09-21 09:20:53	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on September 21?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4dae47…
09-20 05:46:28	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 20?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0ef7fb…
09-19 08:22:43	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on September 19?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa18290…
09-18 06:22:45	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C or below on September 18?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x491371…
09-17 04:03:27	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C or below on September 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x65d5af…
09-16 08:19:33	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on September 16?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x3549d3…
09-15 09:10:01	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on September 15?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf6c94a…
09-14 08:42:12	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 14?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x97fbfc…
09-12 16:26:46	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on September 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x085c97…
09-11 07:17:33	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on September 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8fa70a…
09-10 08:16:07	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on September 10?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7b236b…
09-09 09:21:07	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on September 9?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5f683d…
09-08 15:37:00	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on September 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x788a47…
09-08 06:06:00	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on September 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb7f621…
09-07 08:20:06	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 7?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x547a80…
09-06 17:34:57	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on September 6?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3a3142…
09-06 09:16:21	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on September 6?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3fd0c3…
09-05 01:09:25	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on September 5?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5fd832…
09-03 09:49:19	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on September 3?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xce7bf1…
09-02 07:40:33	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on September 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd49b60…
08-30 08:38:37	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on August 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xadab69…
08-29 08:15:24	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd49ae1…
08-28 08:09:58	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on August 28?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa8d1a7…
08-27 08:53:24	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on August 27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x46ed42…
08-26 08:24:40	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 26?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe280c6…
08-25 09:10:18	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 25?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf2ebc5…
08-24 09:54:18	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 24?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd0b45e…
08-23 14:47:46	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on August 23?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x04db1b…
08-22 08:46:49	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 22?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd016e7…
08-21 07:40:24	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 21?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xdfcfc7…
08-20 08:41:01	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 20?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc6987e…
08-19 11:04:46	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 19?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6b0686…
08-18 08:14:28	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 18?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5a04d4…
08-17 07:24:54	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on August 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xae67ab…
08-16 11:18:49	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x145b33…
08-15 09:47:04	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4784d2…
08-14 06:48:27	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x53f763…
08-13 07:56:06	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on August 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xce0cd2…
08-12 07:54:34	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 12?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8b0f76…
08-11 06:53:30	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf0f26d…
08-10 07:34:43	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 10?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x29783d…
08-09 01:23:52	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on August 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1ad6c0…
08-08 07:28:40	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C on August 8?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x049733…
08-07 01:11:19	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 6?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xff8e59…
08-06 06:40:54	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe8eecf…
08-05 07:53:36	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on August 5?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb50db2…
08-04 08:15:00	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on August 4?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x697aec…
08-03 07:18:47	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C on August 3?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xda64ce…
08-02 01:37:53	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 1?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfc745a…
08-01 07:01:44	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 1?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x11b8f0…
07-31 08:27:06	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 31?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x72e264…
07-30 06:49:26	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf3be2e…
07-29 07:06:48	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C on July 29?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb31c0d…
07-28 06:25:33	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on July 28?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x93e5a3…
07-27 08:21:15	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5a1d2e…
07-26 07:12:27	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C or higher on July 26?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa7b504…
07-25 08:11:16	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on July 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc04bc8…
07-24 10:04:33	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on July 24?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x025216…
07-23 08:07:07	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on July 23?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xacbfd0…
07-22 01:59:15	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 21?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3d29e0…
07-21 09:07:43	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on July 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5cdeda…
07-21 00:09:36	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on July 20?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7ab58b…