Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$964

Unrealized P&L

-$12

Hit rate

8.6%

Resolved

895

Trades

6,437

lifetime

Volume

$47.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$60

9 positions

First seen

2026-02-10

last 10-29 20:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 90 days

Categories

Other

60% 12% -$632

Politics

33% 3% -$245

Sports

3% 22% -$5

Tech

2% 7% -$23

Crypto

1% 43% -$59

Pop-Culture

0% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

79 active days in 12wk • peak 286 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (17) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M?	Yes	+20	$15	84¢	$17	+$2	10-18 16:02
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	No	+20	$9	56¢	$11	+$2	10-18 14:08
Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	No	+20	$13	50¢	$10	-$3	10-05 14:11
Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	Yes	+20	$14	50¢	$10	-$4	10-05 14:11
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	Yes	+20	$11	44¢	$9	-$2	10-17 20:41
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M?	No	+20	$5	16¢	$3	-$2	10-18 07:27
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	+0	$0	98¢	$0	$0	10-02 11:13
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	+0	$0	40¢	$0	$0	09-27 11:20
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	No	+0	$4	2¢	$0	-$4	10-02 09:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	27	$261	220	220	+0	Yes	-$4	10-02 20:07
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?	25	$216	222	222	+0	No	-$2	10-04 15:50
Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 7, 2026?	7	$191	150	150	+0	No	-$4	09-27 18:14
Gavin Newsom Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	8	$175	149	149	+0	open	—	09-27 22:04
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Lieutenant Governor election?	14	$163	136	136	+0	open	—	10-04 14:55
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the September 2026 meeting?	18	$160	176	143	+33	No	-$3	09-17 09:46
Jon Ossoff Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	6	$157	120	120	+0	open	—	09-27 22:05
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	5	$155	100	100	+0	No	-$1	09-27 10:38
Will France win 2026-27 Nations League Group A1?	10	$155	97	97	+0	open	—	10-05 14:47
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	16	$153	146	146	+0	open	—	10-02 11:13
Will the Centre Party (C) be in the next Swedish government?	14	$152	148	148	+0	open	—	09-26 06:36
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	21	$151	158	158	+0	No	-$3	09-22 08:20
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by December 31?	9	$143	160	160	+0	Yes	-$11	09-28 14:57
will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	11	$133	233	167	+67	No	-$29	07-30 07:17
Will Taylor Brown win Big Brother season 28?	7	$129	78	78	+0	No	-$1	09-27 17:41
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	7	$129	127	127	+0	open	—	09-25 13:53
Will AfD win the most seats in 2 German state elections in September 2026?	17	$127	123	123	+0	Yes	-$3	09-13 19:04
Will Democrats win exactly 9 House seats in Pennsylvania in the 2026 midterm elections?	8	$125	80	80	+0	open	—	10-04 18:06
Will the Moderate Party (M) be in the next Swedish government?	11	$124	88	88	+0	open	—	09-23 06:55
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD?	4	$123	120	120	+0	No	-$1	09-28 06:28
Will Filipe Barros win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?	10	$122	140	140	+0	Yes	+$0	09-28 00:27
Will Miloš Vučević win the next Serbia presidential election?	4	$119	120	120	+0	open	—	09-26 13:00
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	4	$117	120	120	+0	No	-$2	09-27 15:11
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?	20	$116	116	116	+0	open	—	09-12 18:06
Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	16	$115	100	90	+10	No	-$4	09-25 22:41
Will Mauro Mendes win the most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso Senate election?	10	$114	160	160	+0	Yes	-$7	09-27 21:48
Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	14	$112	152	112	+40	open	—	10-05 14:11
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	13	$110	100	100	+0	Yes	-$3	09-22 08:12
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C?	4	$110	87	87	+0	open	—	09-28 00:38
Will Ascent be the fewest played map at VALORANT Champions 2026?	6	$109	60	60	+0	No	$0	10-05 14:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 20:35:40	Will Real Madrid score the most goals in the UCL league phase?	Yes	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x4192a4…
10-29 20:34:40	Will there be no next Grok model (4.8+) release by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0x7f5599…
10-29 20:34:16	Washington passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?	No	SELL	10	33¢	$3	0xa21dcd…
10-29 20:17:40	Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	SELL	17	32¢	$5	0xf037a3…
10-29 20:17:40	Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	SELL	3	32¢	$1	0x66caaa…
10-29 13:01:55	Will the Toronto Raptors finish as the #1 seed in the 2026-27 NBA Eastern Conference?	No	SELL	11	83¢	$9	0x0a4b7c…
10-29 12:40:17	Will the Toronto Raptors finish as the #1 seed in the 2026-27 NBA Eastern Conference?	No	BUY	11	86¢	$9	0x66fd54…
10-29 12:38:35	Will Jim Jordan be the first House Minority Leader after the 2026 midterms?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x9d9097…
10-29 12:11:31	Will Emeka Egbuka have 699.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	BUY	19	33¢	$6	0xeddc8f…
10-29 10:19:53	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-08 House election by 20%-25%?	No	SELL	20	77¢	$15	0x0b099d…
10-29 10:19:19	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-08 House election by 20%-25%?	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x88958f…
10-29 07:51:34	Will the next Grok model (4.8+) be released on November 6, 2026?	No	SELL	2	83¢	$2	0x7d35c3…
10-29 06:35:17	Will the next Grok model (4.8+) be released on November 6, 2026?	No	SELL	4	83¢	$3	0x545e92…
10-29 05:52:46	Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	84¢	$17	0xe4791e…
10-29 04:54:04	Will Dak Prescott have 27.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	SELL	2	39¢	$1	0x4a2128…
10-29 03:43:59	Will any other company have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	2	80¢	$2	0x2908bb…
10-29 03:43:58	Will any other company have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	18	80¢	$14	0x37eb65…
10-29 03:43:43	Will any other company have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x71d529…
10-29 03:29:46	Will the next Grok model (4.8+) be released on November 6, 2026?	No	SELL	6	83¢	$5	0x28a04e…
10-29 02:43:02	will rihanna have the greatest number of monthly spotify listeners this month 20261130	No	SELL	20	60¢	$12	0x0e69e9…
10-29 02:42:02	will rihanna have the greatest number of monthly spotify listeners this month 20261130	No	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0xc40c65…
10-29 02:23:23	Will the Opportunity Party win 4-6 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	No	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0x51e064…
10-29 02:18:55	will the opportunity party win 4 6 seats in the new zealand house of representatives in the 2026 new zealand legislative election	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x253351…
10-29 01:56:07	Will the next Grok model (4.8+) be released on November 6, 2026?	No	SELL	8	83¢	$7	0x21aca6…
10-29 01:55:29	Will the next Grok model (4.8+) be released on November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xde32d4…
10-29 01:49:16	Will there be no next Grok model (4.8+) release by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	82¢	$4	0x3f5a38…
10-29 01:45:04	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?	No	SELL	20	79¢	$16	0x07429e…
10-29 01:44:29	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x3435b6…
10-29 01:42:46	Will there be no next Grok model (4.8+) release by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	13	82¢	$11	0x19a36a…
10-29 01:42:10	Will there be no next Grok model (4.8+) release by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x28353e…
10-29 01:02:53	Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x429104…
10-29 01:00:25	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 12°C on October 30?	No	SELL	10	81¢	$8	0x8e4a62…
10-29 00:59:52	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 12°C on October 30?	No	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0xc1c843…
10-28 23:57:59	Washington passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?	No	BUY	10	39¢	$4	0x0f9d42…
10-28 21:53:53	Will Josh Allen have 24.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	SELL	10	45¢	$5	0xf982b3…
10-28 21:53:38	Muse Charm released by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x391ee4…
10-28 21:53:22	Will the peak water level at La Jolla be 8.10 ft MLLW or more?	No	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0xb85817…
10-28 21:53:07	Israel military action against Syria by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	58¢	$12	0x1af8e9…
10-28 21:52:53	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IL-15 House election by 30%-35%?	No	SELL	20	68¢	$14	0x4d3199…
10-28 21:41:53	Will Cincinnati Bengals advance to the Divisional Round in the 2027 NFL Playoffs?	No	SELL	20	62¢	$12	0x26e70a…
10-28 21:41:40	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	54¢	$11	0x06c2a8…
10-28 21:40:43	Will "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 105m?	No	SELL	14	66¢	$9	0x057a29…
10-28 21:17:35	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0x46e928…
10-28 21:07:29	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	SELL	20	65¢	$13	0xb28393…
10-28 21:06:53	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x57566e…
10-28 20:58:44	Will Josh Allen have 24.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	SELL	3	56¢	$1	0x184284…
10-28 20:47:40	Will "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 105m?	No	SELL	6	67¢	$4	0xf005f5…
10-28 20:43:20	Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $3.00T and $3.50T at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0xfe6162…
10-28 20:29:16	Will "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 105m?	No	BUY	14	67¢	$9	0xec8e5a…
10-28 20:29:11	Will "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 105m?	No	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0xefd7fc…
10-28 19:34:17	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x3b68c7…
10-28 18:50:13	Will Amazon’s market capitalization be at least $4.50T at the end of 2026?	No	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0x31b3cf…
10-28 18:41:26	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IL-15 House election by 30%-35%?	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0xb4c6a6…
10-28 18:39:07	Will the Samsung Lions win the 2026 Korean Series?	No	SELL	5	68¢	$3	0xfe25c6…
10-28 18:35:16	Will the peak water level at La Jolla be 8.10 ft MLLW or more?	No	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x438435…
10-28 18:30:22	Will Amazon’s market capitalization be at least $4.50T at the end of 2026?	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x00fc09…
10-28 18:22:59	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 FL-20 House election by 55%-60%?	No	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0xcc7d74…
10-28 18:22:23	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 FL-20 House election by 55%-60%?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x3a9707…
10-28 18:05:58	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on October 30?	No	SELL	8	79¢	$6	0x72b229…
10-28 18:05:58	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on October 30?	No	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0x31a06f…
10-28 18:04:10	Will the Samsung Lions win the 2026 Korean Series?	No	SELL	6	68¢	$4	0xfe2191…
10-28 18:03:32	Will the Samsung Lions win the 2026 Korean Series?	No	BUY	11	68¢	$7	0xebaa87…
10-28 18:03:19	Will Dak Prescott have 27.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0x8d46d0…
10-28 18:01:47	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 12°C on October 30?	No	SELL	19	83¢	$16	0x063d4f…
10-28 18:00:13	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 12°C on October 30?	No	BUY	19	83¢	$16	0x8d6541…
10-28 17:58:37	Will Amazon’s market capitalization be at least $4.50T at the end of 2026?	No	SELL	20	77¢	$15	0x13eca8…
10-28 17:58:02	Will Amazon’s market capitalization be at least $4.50T at the end of 2026?	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x8de92b…
10-28 17:52:16	Israel military action against Syria by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x2b3336…
10-28 17:28:25	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on October 30?	No	SELL	11	79¢	$9	0x33bcee…
10-28 17:27:52	Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on October 30?	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x196272…
10-28 17:14:25	Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of December 2026?	No	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0xd0623e…
10-28 17:14:04	Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of December 2026?	No	SELL	3	49¢	$1	0xd2bf2e…
10-28 17:13:19	Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x70cfe9…
10-28 16:46:59	Will Trey McBride have 6.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	SELL	12	36¢	$4	0xac01a4…
10-28 16:45:31	Will Trey McBride have 6.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	BUY	12	36¢	$4	0x0a4924…
10-28 16:19:52	Washington passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?	No	SELL	10	37¢	$4	0x718245…
10-28 16:15:37	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 1%?	No	SELL	20	77¢	$15	0x076811…
10-28 16:05:53	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	81¢	$16	0xa8045b…
10-28 15:56:43	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0xb90f28…
10-28 15:19:58	Washington passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?	No	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x4dde0c…
10-28 14:57:55	Will Josh Allen have 24.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	BUY	13	56¢	$7	0x08c9a0…
10-28 13:47:41	Will Dak Prescott have 27.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	BUY	7	39¢	$3	0xdf0a94…
10-28 12:53:55	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 1%?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x825100…
10-28 12:49:02	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	74¢	$15	0x6f9736…
10-28 12:08:22	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x364681…
10-28 12:02:43	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-31 House election by 15%-20%?	No	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0xf56f74…
10-28 11:59:34	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-31 House election by 15%-20%?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0xe8a846…
10-28 11:38:23	Will Legacy Make a Roster Change by December 31?	No	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0xbd7e59…
10-28 10:44:23	Will Pabel Muñoz win the next Quito mayoral election?	No	SELL	20	67¢	$13	0x564979…
10-28 10:43:47	Will Pabel Muñoz win the next Quito mayoral election?	No	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0x0c0bee…
10-28 09:55:34	Will Utah State have more than 5.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	SELL	1	72¢	$1	0x10d985…
10-28 09:39:40	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on October 30?	No	SELL	4	84¢	$3	0x94ee48…
10-28 09:25:46	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on October 30?	No	SELL	6	84¢	$5	0x05b5cd…
10-28 09:06:23	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on October 30?	No	SELL	5	84¢	$4	0xf35927…
10-28 09:05:14	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on October 30?	No	SELL	5	84¢	$4	0x9d29d3…
10-28 09:04:32	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on October 30?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0xd32c7a…
10-28 08:34:43	Will Dak Prescott have 24.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	SELL	15	21¢	$3	0xd4cf47…
10-28 08:25:16	Will Dak Prescott have 24.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	BUY	15	21¢	$3	0x18ff2a…
10-28 07:11:20	Will Utah State have more than 5.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x38b135…
10-28 04:51:05	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0xbb2592…