Ironclad-Brushfire — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$369

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

55.0%

Resolved

1,234

Trades

2,949

lifetime

Volume

$12.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-14

last 09-11 04:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 131 days

Categories

Other

83% 47% -$261

Politics

17% 40% -$109

Crypto

0% 67% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	16	$1.5K	31,549	31,549	+0	No	+$507	08-28 23:49
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	20	$577	21,590	0	+21,590	No	-$577	09-11 04:15
highest temperature in ankara on march 26 2026 10c	9	$304	204	204	-0	Yes	+$1	03-26 21:47
highest temperature in seattle on february 21 2026 46 47f	10	$204	161	161	+0	No	+$3	02-22 04:51
highest temperature in london on february 23 2026 14c	3	$144	80	80	+0	No	+$16	02-24 01:26
highest temperature in london on february 23 2026 13c	6	$136	84	84	-0	Yes	+$31	02-24 01:26
highest temperature in chicago on february 21 2026 29forbelow	5	$128	135	65	+70	Yes	-$1	02-21 21:04
highest temperature in seattle on february 22 2026 52 53f	7	$123	145	145	+0	No	-$96	02-23 00:20
highest temperature in dallas on february 22 2026 57forbelow	6	$110	200	110	+90	No	-$51	02-22 21:55
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 4?	5	$108	123	123	+0	Yes	-$17	06-04 14:46
highest temperature in london on february 24 2026 15c	5	$88	100	36	+64	No	-$72	02-24 12:49
highest temperature in london on february 22 2026 14c	4	$69	35	40	-5	Yes	+$6	02-22 22:32
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 29?	25	$62	327	0	+327	No	-$62	05-28 21:20
highest temperature in madrid on april 14 2026 22c	2	$62	38	38	+0	No	-$7	04-14 14:58
highest temperature in seattle on february 21 2026 44 45f	4	$61	74	74	+0	No	-$5	02-22 04:28
highest temperature in sao paulo on march 12 2026 22corhigher	5	$60	39	39	+0	Yes	$0	03-11 18:24
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 29?	35	$59	543	0	+543	No	-$59	05-29 03:06
highest temperature in tel aviv on march 26 2026 17c	2	$56	30	30	+0	Yes	+$4	03-26 21:47
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 30?	7	$55	195	0	+195	No	-$55	05-29 14:00
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 29?	2	$52	148	0	+148	No	-$52	05-29 16:51
highest temperature in seattle on february 22 2026 50 51f	8	$51	75	75	+0	Yes	-$30	02-23 00:21
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 2?	3	$51	316	0	+316	No	-$51	06-02 09:14
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on April 28?	3	$50	45	45	+0	Yes	+$40	04-28 13:12
highest temperature in dallas on april 15 2026 80 81f	7	$49	90	90	+0	No	+$14	04-15 11:10
highest temperature in seattle on february 23 2026 46 47f	9	$46	60	60	+0	No	+$7	02-23 16:07
highest temperature in dallas on february 21 2026 62 63f	3	$46	49	5	+44	Yes	-$2	02-21 21:16
highest temperature in ankara on march 21 2026 9c	3	$44	24	24	+0	No	+$4	03-21 12:38
highest temperature in seattle on february 21 2026 48 49f	3	$44	25	25	+0	Yes	+$2	02-22 04:39
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 4?	9	$41	341	0	+341	No	-$41	06-04 14:55
highest temperature in toronto on march 19 2026 8corhigher	11	$40	75	0	+75	Yes	-$40	03-19 16:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-11 04:16:39	Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	12,500	0¢	$25	0xf8bc78…
09-11 04:16:30	Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	8,333	0¢	$25	0x7985ad…
09-11 04:15:43	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	11,160	2¢	$200	0xa02889…
09-11 03:34:42	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	6,115	2¢	$100	0x36990e…
08-28 23:49:55	Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	31,549	3¢	$1,000	0xb8f5bf…
08-27 07:52:06	Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	4,528	2¢	$81	0xcf4fdc…
08-27 04:20:36	Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,522	2¢	$27	0xf9eb11…
08-27 04:19:03	Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	13,304	2¢	$239	0xe01eb3…
08-27 03:19:45	Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	25	2¢	$0	0x5f57eb…
08-27 03:19:37	Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	21	2¢	$0	0x0db95a…
08-27 03:19:36	Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	73	2¢	$1	0xce5b66…
08-27 03:19:34	Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	129	2¢	$2	0x829cf6…
08-27 02:59:46	Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	25	2¢	$0	0x1f8470…
08-27 02:58:15	Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	54	2¢	$1	0x743bb5…
08-27 02:58:13	Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	107	2¢	$2	0x7c643a…
08-27 02:58:12	Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	214	2¢	$4	0x0b3af2…
08-27 02:58:09	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2,541	3¢	$69	0x7f3030…
08-27 02:56:43	Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	172	2¢	$3	0x751405…
08-27 02:56:33	Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	73	2¢	$1	0xce9006…
08-27 02:54:54	Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	3,863	1¢	$46	0x17b23d…
08-27 02:41:51	Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	7,441	1¢	$82	0xb08e84…
07-23 18:37:31	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 23?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xc10c89…
07-06 00:52:41	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on July 6?	No	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xea7853…
07-05 18:35:49	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 6?	Yes	BUY	1	23¢	$0	0x150204…
07-05 16:06:19	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 6?	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0xcbfbcb…
07-05 14:42:07	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 6?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xd60d94…
07-05 14:14:08	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 6?	Yes	BUY	3	23¢	$1	0x287da2…
07-05 12:41:53	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	6	4¢	$0	0xad597e…
07-05 12:29:31	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x2fe856…
07-05 12:14:16	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xbb66f1…
07-05 12:14:16	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xb39404…
07-05 12:14:16	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x62ddfd…
07-05 12:14:16	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x4a96db…
07-05 12:14:16	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	11	4¢	$0	0x139025…
07-05 12:14:14	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xe2633e…
07-05 12:06:56	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	27	5¢	$1	0x045247…
07-05 11:44:41	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0xb15ede…
07-05 11:44:41	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0xa131d0…
07-05 11:44:40	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0xe165ef…
07-05 11:44:40	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0xb88154…
07-05 11:44:40	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x89f244…
07-05 11:44:40	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x77b473…
07-05 11:44:40	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x071e11…
07-05 11:44:38	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0xcf23b2…
07-05 11:44:38	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x75f058…
07-05 11:44:37	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0xaf3da3…
07-05 11:44:37	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x958a78…
07-05 11:44:37	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x3ae523…
07-05 11:44:35	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0xfca2d6…
07-05 11:44:35	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x8bcd4c…
07-05 11:44:35	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x09ee4b…
07-05 11:44:34	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x654160…
07-05 08:39:47	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x8ac1fc…
07-05 08:01:26	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 6?	Yes	BUY	1	23¢	$0	0x451ef8…
07-05 07:49:58	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x65536b…
07-05 07:47:44	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	14	22¢	$3	0xcbb05d…
07-05 07:44:02	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xa0204b…
07-05 07:36:04	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 93°F or below on July 6?	No	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x88d777…
07-05 07:10:02	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	3	22¢	$1	0x8eece0…
07-05 06:57:02	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 6?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x4adf29…
07-05 06:48:34	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 6?	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0xe3fa8d…
07-05 06:35:35	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xffd41b…
07-05 06:35:14	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	69	3¢	$2	0xfe1971…
07-05 06:34:46	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 6?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x09c961…
07-05 06:34:44	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 6?	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x7703f6…
07-05 06:34:43	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 6?	Yes	BUY	8	15¢	$1	0x364d5b…
07-05 06:34:40	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 6?	Yes	BUY	13	19¢	$2	0xf6482b…
07-05 06:34:37	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 6?	No	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xbe3294…
07-04 16:30:32	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 5?	Yes	BUY	4	31¢	$1	0x2aa43d…
07-04 10:41:31	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 5?	Yes	BUY	1	31¢	$0	0xd47b0e…
07-04 07:49:10	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 5?	No	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x1d7dfd…
07-04 07:27:23	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x0b2080…
07-04 07:26:11	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 5?	No	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0xf14279…
07-04 07:19:13	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 5?	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x9f9223…
07-04 07:12:35	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 5?	Yes	BUY	9	15¢	$1	0x249e94…
07-04 07:02:26	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 5?	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x529aa6…
07-04 06:58:53	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xc99476…
07-04 06:38:22	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 5?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xfc6f84…
07-04 06:34:32	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 5?	Yes	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0xf9920a…
07-03 17:18:44	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 3?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$1	0xbcd218…
07-03 17:00:40	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 3?	Yes	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0xe881fb…
07-03 16:37:55	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 3?	Yes	BUY	11	10¢	$1	0x54b17f…
07-03 08:00:20	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 4?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x3a0354…
07-03 07:47:10	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 4?	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xfae849…
07-03 07:02:38	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 3?	Yes	BUY	23	7¢	$2	0x64c70d…
07-03 06:51:23	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 4?	Yes	BUY	13	20¢	$3	0x43e97d…
07-03 06:36:05	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 3?	Yes	BUY	8	31¢	$2	0x35e361…
07-03 06:33:47	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 4?	Yes	BUY	14	18¢	$3	0x68a927…
07-03 06:33:47	Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 4?	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x593069…
07-02 20:36:28	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on July 3?	Yes	BUY	8	7¢	$1	0x61efa1…
07-02 20:12:16	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on July 3?	Yes	BUY	6	7¢	$0	0xd486b4…
07-02 20:06:11	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on July 3?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0xbf76b9…
07-02 14:34:01	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on July 2?	Yes	BUY	0	18¢	$0	0xb92599…
07-02 14:33:26	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on July 2?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0xb5c2f8…
07-02 07:08:17	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 3?	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xb1b9eb…
07-02 07:06:23	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on July 3?	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x63c93d…
07-02 07:02:08	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 3?	No	BUY	2	68¢	$1	0x120a41…
07-02 06:49:05	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 3?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x3b6702…
07-02 06:40:50	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 3?	Yes	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0xca6ae7…
07-02 06:40:47	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on July 3?	No	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0xcb8ef2…