Rosy-Leather — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$582

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

67.6%

Resolved

182

Trades

485

lifetime

Volume

$8.10K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$17

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-08

last 08-18 00:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 50 days

Categories

Politics

93% 63% +$645

Other

4% 50% -$82

Crypto

3% 74% +$13

Sports

0% 100% +$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	Yes		-66	-$6	8¢	$-5	+$1	08-18 00:21

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	18	$2.0K	1,499	1,499	+0	Yes	+$728	06-15 04:06
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	27	$501	2,000	0	+2,000	No	-$501	04-24 22:23
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	10	$481	324	324	+0	Yes	+$160	05-14 11:51
us iran nuclear deal by july 31	8	$367	646	50	+596	Yes	+$319	06-15 02:21
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	12	$343	806	806	+0	No	-$67	05-27 17:09
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	11	$289	701	0	+701	No	-$289	04-21 16:52
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	6	$242	205	205	+0	No	+$11	04-25 16:15
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	5	$230	699	350	+349	No	-$153	05-30 14:12
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by May 31, 2026?	7	$162	214	0	+214	Yes	+$52	05-22 22:24
Will Donald Trump visit Alaska in 2026?	7	$160	242	0	+242	Yes	+$82	05-12 15:21
Will Trump praise Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026?	2	$142	160	0	+160	Yes	+$18	05-20 17:46
will trump praise gianni infantino by june 30	10	$132	164	0	+164	Yes	+$32	06-07 15:50
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week?	12	$109	259	123	+136	No	+$149	05-17 17:45
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	3	$106	400	400	+0	No	-$34	04-23 16:10
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	5	$102	200	0	+200	No	-$102	04-19 08:34
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	9	$97	189	65	+124	No	+$138	05-16 12:08
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?	5	$94	268	40	+228	Yes	-$58	06-01 00:57
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	5	$88	87	87	+0	Yes	-$29	06-02 03:33
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	3	$79	147	147	+0	No	-$53	04-21 17:36
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 23 2026	4	$79	127	0	+127	No	-$79	04-21 17:33
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026?	6	$73	101	101	+0	open	—	08-17 17:52
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?	8	$69	232	176	+56	No	-$52	06-04 03:09
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	3	$66	181	0	+181	No	-$66	04-20 18:33
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April?	6	$64	44	43	+1	Yes	+$3	04-29 21:26
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times at The Villages on May 1?	5	$61	105	0	+105	Yes	+$44	05-01 17:05
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	5	$60	296	0	+296	No	+$236	05-15 10:07
will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on june 6	2	$56	60	0	+60	Yes	+$4	06-05 14:41
Will Trump say "King" during King Charles visit?	3	$54	63	0	+63	Yes	+$9	04-27 22:38
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 8, 2026?	3	$50	62	0	+62	Yes	+$12	05-08 18:52
will trump speak to mark rutte in june	23	$46	69	0	+69	Yes	+$23	06-06 01:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-18 00:21:58	Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	56	9¢	$5	0xa52e0e…
08-17 17:52:27	will the united states have an ebola case in 2026	Yes	SELL	81	21¢	$17	0xbade9f…
08-16 20:56:21	Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	13¢	$0	0xafa6db…
08-16 09:56:37	will the united states have an ebola case in 2026	Yes	SELL	15	20¢	$3	0x367315…
08-14 12:59:27	Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	13¢	$1	0x34050c…
08-13 09:00:58	will the united states have an ebola case in 2026	Yes	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x1c0c33…
06-15 04:06:01	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	499	100¢	$497	0x4931c6…
06-15 02:21:57	us iran nuclear deal by july 31	Yes	SELL	50	90¢	$45	0xcfbb5b…
06-15 02:18:52	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1,000	86¢	$860	0x1ca34f…
06-08 15:57:49	will trump speak to elon musk in june	Yes	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0xd08608…
06-07 15:50:36	will trump praise gianni infantino by june 30	Yes	BUY	7	90¢	$7	0x4bf847…
06-07 15:49:39	will trump praise gianni infantino by june 30	Yes	BUY	21	90¢	$19	0x7d49e5…
06-07 12:41:34	will trump praise gianni infantino by june 30	Yes	BUY	38	79¢	$30	0x7a6628…
06-06 14:13:01	will trump speak to elon musk in june	Yes	BUY	8	42¢	$4	0x4e6f13…
06-06 01:11:49	will trump speak to mark rutte in june	Yes	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0xe63a2f…
06-06 01:11:49	will trump speak to mark rutte in june	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xdf6b22…
06-06 01:11:49	will trump speak to mark rutte in june	Yes	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0xaa3a34…
06-06 01:11:49	will trump speak to mark rutte in june	Yes	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x3585b7…
06-06 01:11:48	will trump speak to mark rutte in june	Yes	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0xda60ca…
06-06 01:11:48	will trump speak to mark rutte in june	Yes	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x5eebc4…
06-06 01:11:48	will trump speak to mark rutte in june	Yes	BUY	2	73¢	$2	0x1b883a…
06-06 01:11:48	will trump speak to mark rutte in june	Yes	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x0d9c98…
06-06 00:06:58	will trump speak to elon musk in june	Yes	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0xb3e8f1…
06-05 20:27:37	will trump say egg during wisconsin events 20260602174202014	Yes	BUY	2	76¢	$2	0x29c67e…
06-05 19:24:22	will trump say death tax during wisconsin events 20260602174202011	Yes	BUY	30	92¢	$28	0xaf1f7b…
06-05 18:21:28	will trump speak to elon musk in june	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$2	0x6fd951…
06-05 17:49:57	will trump say egg during wisconsin events 20260602174202014	Yes	BUY	6	74¢	$5	0xe90679…
06-05 17:18:28	will trump say ai or artificial intelligence during wisconsin events 20260602174202018	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0xd928d3…
06-05 14:44:39	will trump say egg during wisconsin events 20260602174202014	Yes	BUY	7	67¢	$4	0x599e3d…
06-05 14:41:12	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on june 6	Yes	BUY	40	94¢	$38	0x7805df…
06-05 14:41:12	will trump praise gianni infantino by june 30	Yes	BUY	57	81¢	$46	0x479382…
06-05 14:09:42	will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on june 6	Yes	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x137776…
06-05 13:38:16	will trump praise gianni infantino by june 30	Yes	BUY	2	72¢	$2	0x419cfd…
06-05 13:38:15	will trump praise gianni infantino by june 30	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x9756fe…
06-05 13:38:15	will trump praise gianni infantino by june 30	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x6dea71…
06-05 13:38:15	will trump praise gianni infantino by june 30	Yes	BUY	6	72¢	$4	0x68e122…
06-05 13:38:15	will trump praise gianni infantino by june 30	Yes	BUY	25	72¢	$18	0x097115…
06-05 08:54:42	will trump say nuclear 3 times during wisconsin events 20260602174201997	Yes	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x089b97…
06-05 05:45:40	will trump say nuclear 3 times during wisconsin events 20260602174201997	Yes	BUY	12	59¢	$7	0xc93c00…
06-04 20:52:10	will trump speak to mark rutte in june	Yes	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0xe48ddd…
06-04 05:11:46	us iran nuclear deal by july 31	Yes	BUY	147	42¢	$62	0xc57bfb…
06-04 03:37:33	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	400	31¢	$124	0x724162…
06-04 03:09:31	Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?	Yes	SELL	30	1¢	$0	0xbb6813…
06-04 03:08:22	Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?	Yes	SELL	85	1¢	$1	0x0f4ee1…
06-04 02:34:39	Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?	Yes	SELL	12	93¢	$11	0x94c15a…
06-04 02:06:18	Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?	Yes	BUY	0	90¢	$0	0x6a9058…
06-04 02:04:33	Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x70542f…
06-04 02:03:57	Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?	Yes	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xf81d65…
06-03 19:14:04	Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?	Yes	SELL	61	12¢	$7	0x730a2d…
06-03 06:10:50	Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June?	Yes	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x7a26dc…
06-03 06:08:01	Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x468ae4…
06-02 12:24:06	Will Trump praise Gianni Infantino by June 30?	Yes	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x582f72…
06-02 11:55:24	Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June?	Yes	BUY	0	63¢	$0	0xe549d5…
06-02 11:55:22	Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xe148c6…
06-02 11:55:22	Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xbbcc39…
06-02 11:55:22	Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xb71075…
06-02 11:55:22	Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x7e432c…
06-02 11:55:22	Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x56c03b…
06-02 11:55:20	Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xe94d77…
06-02 11:55:20	Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xd2c369…
06-02 11:55:20	Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x95217d…
06-02 11:55:20	Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x777f11…
06-02 11:55:20	Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x376896…
06-02 11:55:20	Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x2158cd…
06-02 11:55:19	Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xff7183…
06-02 11:55:19	Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June?	Yes	BUY	0	63¢	$0	0x1a8d0c…
06-02 03:33:16	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	Yes	SELL	87	34¢	$30	0xdc989f…
06-01 23:54:50	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	34¢	$34	0x31d95a…
06-01 22:21:07	US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	192	48¢	$92	0x0ecd68…
06-01 21:49:50	US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	8	47¢	$4	0xdbc39c…
06-01 15:35:20	Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	42¢	$17	0x9f96df…
06-01 14:01:32	Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0x7b9dbb…
06-01 08:48:31	US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	100	48¢	$48	0x4a4840…
06-01 06:16:28	Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	51¢	$20	0x901bf9…
06-01 00:57:00	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	225	22¢	$50	0x605e01…
06-01 00:27:13	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	92¢	$8	0xd49cb1…
05-31 23:58:17	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	95¢	$5	0x3b56d8…
05-31 03:26:52	Will Trump say "New York" this week?	Yes	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x81b825…
05-30 14:12:49	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	42¢	$42	0xd83abd…
05-30 14:12:42	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	350	11¢	$38	0xae6940…
05-30 11:06:45	Will Trump say "Trump Derangement Syndrome" in June?	Yes	BUY	9	73¢	$7	0x25ad71…
05-30 01:31:23	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	22¢	$44	0xa9edc7…
05-30 00:28:02	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	399	25¢	$100	0x2274b5…
05-29 21:49:22	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	45¢	$45	0xb23c90…
05-29 18:07:11	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	48¢	$38	0x1337f8…
05-29 18:06:44	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x21e204…
05-29 18:06:25	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	25	18¢	$4	0xd0b022…
05-28 19:52:50	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	Yes	BUY	35	74¢	$26	0xe2f153…
05-28 19:21:23	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0xcd607e…
05-28 18:21:38	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	187	42¢	$79	0x467c18…
05-28 18:21:25	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x408429…
05-28 18:20:29	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x3f6429…
05-28 18:19:54	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	3	42¢	$1	0x5aa79c…
05-28 16:43:48	Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	Yes	BUY	27	49¢	$13	0x9c12df…
05-28 13:34:11	Will Vance say "Ass" during Air Force Academy Address?	Yes	BUY	2	24¢	$0	0xf3e8d6…
05-27 17:09:13	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	SELL	59	12¢	$7	0xc7a616…
05-27 17:09:13	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	SELL	248	11¢	$28	0x515822…
05-27 14:02:30	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	31	29¢	$9	0x28ed95…
05-27 13:01:04	Will Trump say "World Cup" during Cabinet meeting?	Yes	BUY	9	40¢	$4	0x1cedc1…
05-27 05:11:33	Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	52¢	$15	0x672407…