Bruised-Basketball — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$86

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,614

lifetime

Volume

$33.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$21

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-21 07:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

50% 0% $-4

Other

43% 0% $-82

Tech

5% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Sports

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

64 active days in 12wk • peak 31 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes		-10	$-4	48¢	$-5	$-1	06-12 00:46

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	128	$8.4K	7,726	8,026	-300	open	—	01-26 01:23
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	23	$1.4K	1,400	1,400	-0	open	—	01-30 07:28
tesla launches unsupervised full self driving fsd by march 31	16	$876	800	1,000	-200	open	—	01-05 21:11
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	41	$761	1,128	1,728	-600	open	—	05-11 01:08
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	4	$732	400	400	+0	open	—	02-27 03:34
israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	14	$701	661	661	+0	open	—	01-26 01:38
will balendra balen shah be the next prime minister of nepal	23	$637	400	432	-32	open	—	03-04 05:15
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	10	$599	434	434	+0	open	—	04-25 15:02
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	11	$501	302	302	+0	open	—	04-20 03:11
will donald trump publicly insult someone on july 12 2026 20260630182730890	5	$489	300	300	+0	open	—	07-11 09:31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	5	$464	400	400	+0	open	—	04-30 05:06
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	5	$396	400	400	+0	open	—	01-05 01:03
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	6	$356	320	320	+0	open	—	03-08 14:31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$352	300	300	+0	open	—	05-28 04:36
will jasmine crockett be the democratic nominee for senate in texas	5	$295	217	217	+0	open	—	02-21 03:50
will spacex file for an ipo by april 3 2026	2	$277	190	190	+0	open	—	03-27 06:50
Chirayu Rana sued?	2	$270	200	200	+0	open	—	05-15 16:47
spx opens up or down on february 27 2026	7	$270	203	203	+0	open	—	02-27 02:39
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	2	$262	200	200	+0	open	—	07-10 12:54
will kevin warsh be formally nominated to be chair of the federal reserve by march 31 2026	4	$260	178	178	+0	open	—	02-27 06:01
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?	8	$235	247	247	+0	No	$-5	03-29 13:25
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	4	$230	200	200	+0	open	—	07-13 02:49
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	6	$215	300	300	+0	open	—	04-01 10:57
Fed rate hike in 2026?	2	$214	200	200	+0	open	—	06-25 12:44
will russia capture kostyantynivka by march 31 872 578	4	$212	300	300	+0	open	—	02-13 04:57
will trump say pam or bondi during the state of the union address 445	3	$208	200	200	+0	open	—	02-24 23:59
nothing ever happens january 581	16	$206	200	200	+0	open	—	01-07 12:56
will us gdp growth in q4 2025 be greater than 3pt5	14	$203	206	206	+0	open	—	01-29 06:23
spx opens up or down on february 11 2026	8	$200	202	202	+0	open	—	02-11 03:51
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	6	$196	150	130	+20	open	—	06-30 01:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 07:28:54	nflx up or down on july 21 2026	Up	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x529f1a…
07-21 07:28:52	nflx up or down on july 21 2026	Up	BUY	14	49¢	$7	0xcb2268…
07-18 13:41:58	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875	Yes	SELL	50	90¢	$45	0x573423…
07-18 12:57:45	will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875	Yes	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0x145ca5…
07-17 06:42:22	will databricks valuation hit low 130b by december 31	Yes	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0x7d4746…
07-17 06:18:00	will databricks valuation hit low 130b by december 31	Yes	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0xa636f5…
07-17 02:23:36	will the announcers say penalty shootout during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956904	No	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0x1285c1…
07-17 02:14:43	will the announcers say penalty shootout during the argentina vs spain fifa world cup match 20260716154956904	No	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x497b16…
07-16 07:14:01	will blue be said during the next episode of the all in podcast 20260713144020201	No	SELL	40	28¢	$11	0x5073c6…
07-16 05:28:23	will blue be said during the next episode of the all in podcast 20260713144020201	No	BUY	40	45¢	$18	0x8a09ec…
07-15 10:12:50	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	13¢	$6	0xaf7a43…
07-15 10:07:53	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0x7909fb…
07-15 05:04:14	will starmer say thank 10 times during the next pmq 20260702155400707	Yes	SELL	20	62¢	$12	0x18b46d…
07-15 05:02:37	will starmer say thank 10 times during the next pmq 20260702155400707	Yes	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0xe52b97…
07-13 17:26:53	will openais valuation hit low 800b by december 31 852 948	Yes	SELL	50	48¢	$24	0x9f72f6…
07-13 14:09:11	will donald trump publicly insult someone on july 18 2026 20260630182730896	No	SELL	30	9¢	$3	0x0c99be…
07-13 14:09:10	will donald trump publicly insult someone on july 30 2026 20260630182730908	No	SELL	30	9¢	$3	0xc94780…
07-13 12:07:25	will openais valuation hit low 800b by december 31 852 948	Yes	BUY	50	47¢	$24	0x5cad07…
07-13 09:55:07	will donald trump publicly insult someone on july 18 2026 20260630182730896	No	BUY	30	15¢	$4	0x3b7742…
07-13 09:54:20	will donald trump publicly insult someone on july 30 2026 20260630182730908	No	BUY	30	16¢	$5	0x28d24f…
07-13 02:49:40	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	100	83¢	$83	0x79c917…
07-13 02:42:52	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x3fd8ff…
07-11 10:22:31	will donald trump publicly insult someone on july 14 2026 20260630182730892	Yes	SELL	15	73¢	$11	0x23f298…
07-11 10:22:16	will donald trump publicly insult someone on july 14 2026 20260630182730892	Yes	SELL	85	76¢	$65	0xfe4228…
07-11 09:31:31	will donald trump publicly insult someone on july 12 2026 20260630182730890	Yes	SELL	163	80¢	$131	0x0c87d3…
07-11 09:31:01	will donald trump publicly insult someone on july 12 2026 20260630182730890	Yes	SELL	87	81¢	$70	0x9f06aa…
07-11 07:52:19	will donald trump publicly insult someone on july 12 2026 20260630182730890	Yes	SELL	27	84¢	$23	0x1355a1…
07-11 07:31:37	will donald trump publicly insult someone on july 12 2026 20260630182730890	Yes	SELL	22	84¢	$19	0xb08d2c…
07-11 04:48:38	will donald trump publicly insult someone on july 12 2026 20260630182730890	Yes	BUY	300	82¢	$246	0x563c8a…
07-11 04:47:05	will donald trump publicly insult someone on july 14 2026 20260630182730892	Yes	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x4b0cb2…
07-10 12:54:28	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	200	64¢	$128	0xbaa8eb…
07-10 12:22:16	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	BUY	200	67¢	$134	0x2c945c…
07-10 09:13:40	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0x5d3304…
07-10 08:41:08	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	42¢	$9	0xdd954c…
07-09 01:07:29	anduril vs lockheed martin higher valuation on december 31	Lockheed Martin	SELL	5	57¢	$3	0x495317…
07-09 01:02:23	anduril vs lockheed martin higher valuation on december 31	Lockheed Martin	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x3d44ca…
07-07 17:14:11	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	Yes	SELL	50	7¢	$4	0xd8c659…
07-07 14:23:49	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	Yes	BUY	50	9¢	$4	0x0e7b93…
07-06 16:05:58	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	SELL	50	74¢	$37	0xc0f966…
07-05 21:39:41	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 328	Yes	SELL	23	48¢	$11	0xc9e4c1…
07-05 21:04:20	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0xa414d6…
07-05 14:41:22	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 328	Yes	SELL	6	48¢	$3	0xc9efd0…
07-05 12:35:56	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 328	Yes	SELL	21	48¢	$10	0xef7c02…
07-05 09:15:38	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	SELL	200	29¢	$58	0xe36bfd…
07-05 08:57:07	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	200	32¢	$64	0x66f9c2…
07-05 00:16:10	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	135	23¢	$31	0x4a9e22…
07-04 23:58:38	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	135	23¢	$31	0xd67575…
07-04 17:18:58	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 328	Yes	BUY	50	48¢	$24	0xab3c29…
07-04 11:11:05	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 328	No	SELL	47	49¢	$23	0x67aa13…
07-04 08:18:20	will the announcers say goal 60 times during the canada vs morocco fifa world cup match 20260703211750028	Yes	SELL	21	59¢	$12	0x58d436…
07-04 05:36:07	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 328	No	SELL	3	49¢	$1	0xff2bde…
07-04 04:20:43	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 328	No	BUY	50	48¢	$24	0x8e619c…
07-04 03:21:47	will the announcers say goal 60 times during the canada vs morocco fifa world cup match 20260703211750028	No	SELL	1	26¢	$0	0xfbf8d9…
07-04 02:26:05	will the announcers say goal 60 times during the canada vs morocco fifa world cup match 20260703211750028	Yes	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0xaf2113…
07-02 03:14:34	will trump say hundred or thousand 10 times during remarks at the burning hills amphitheater 20260701154547081	No	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x18e802…
07-01 03:26:19	Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	23¢	$23	0x7b3804…
07-01 01:23:25	Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0xe177e1…
06-30 01:07:10	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xe6403a…
06-28 15:35:43	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	38¢	$19	0xb61a8b…
06-27 15:38:46	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17	Yes	SELL	20	86¢	$17	0xe3df67…
06-27 14:30:01	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 17	Yes	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0xeec9eb…
06-27 13:05:34	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 10	Yes	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0xfb8bd2…
06-27 13:01:10	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 10	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x8272c4…
06-27 09:44:28	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	38¢	$19	0x1501ec…
06-27 00:05:47	will pluralis launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	SELL	20	51¢	$10	0x342abe…
06-27 00:05:41	will lifi launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0x4504a1…
06-27 00:03:40	QFEX FDV above $80M one day after launch?	No	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0x653757…
06-27 00:03:35	QFEX FDV above $80M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	9	28¢	$3	0xed57ce…
06-27 00:03:14	will nous research launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	SELL	20	60¢	$12	0xf1caf9…
06-26 18:05:44	will lifi launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x9c9dac…
06-26 16:58:41	will nous research launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x1590ff…
06-26 16:44:17	will pluralis launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0x79b974…
06-26 16:25:14	QFEX FDV above $80M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	9	29¢	$3	0xaf5717…
06-26 16:24:34	QFEX FDV above $80M one day after launch?	No	BUY	2	68¢	$1	0x558277…
06-26 15:39:14	will veda launch a token by june 30 2027	Yes	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0x1fccf5…
06-26 15:37:34	will veda launch a token by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0xfdec5d…
06-25 12:44:25	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	53¢	$106	0xafae86…
06-25 12:42:52	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	54¢	$108	0xdd8c72…
06-25 12:41:47	will japan reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120756	Yes	BUY	40	40¢	$16	0xbaa7ab…
06-25 12:30:14	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	SELL	20	79¢	$16	0xaf10c7…
06-25 12:28:44	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0xd79c97…
06-25 07:35:26	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	31¢	$31	0x459961…
06-25 03:16:37	GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	100	31¢	$31	0x232793…
06-24 23:25:52	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt0t by december 31 922	Yes	SELL	15	38¢	$6	0x5b2855…
06-24 19:11:55	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt0t by december 31 922	Yes	BUY	15	38¢	$6	0xb9d770…
06-24 16:13:59	will the announcers say goal 20 times during the czechia vs mexico fifa world cup match 20260623165221708	No	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0xbb6379…
06-24 16:12:59	will the announcers say qatar during the czechia vs mexico fifa world cup match 20260623165221715	No	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0x2c4679…
06-24 16:12:17	will the announcers say goal 40 times during the ecuador vs germany fifa world cup match 20260623170859843	No	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0xbed1bb…
06-24 14:24:02	will the announcers say qatar during the czechia vs mexico fifa world cup match 20260623165221715	No	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x057862…
06-24 13:23:49	will the announcers say energy during the scotland vs brazil fifa world cup match 20260623164947258	Yes	SELL	20	56¢	$11	0xed4b62…
06-24 13:19:19	will the announcers say energy during the scotland vs brazil fifa world cup match 20260623164947258	Yes	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x642038…
06-24 12:16:11	will the announcers say golden boot during the scotland vs brazil fifa world cup match 20260623164947274	Yes	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0xee82cd…
06-24 12:13:55	will the announcers say freedom during the turkiye vs usa fifa world cup match 20260623182415019	Yes	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0x70186b…
06-24 12:10:28	will the announcers say freedom during the turkiye vs usa fifa world cup match 20260623182415019	Yes	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0x10f4bd…
06-24 12:02:44	will the announcers say golden boot during the scotland vs brazil fifa world cup match 20260623164947274	Yes	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0x2689cb…
06-24 11:45:38	will the announcers say shot 10 times during the czechia vs mexico fifa world cup match 20260623165221710	Yes	SELL	20	60¢	$12	0xae30ad…
06-24 11:45:32	will the announcers say foul 10 times during the czechia vs mexico fifa world cup match 20260623165221711	No	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0x51dd81…
06-24 11:44:52	will the announcers say shot 10 times during the czechia vs mexico fifa world cup match 20260623165221710	Yes	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x584f48…
06-24 11:44:25	will the announcers say foul 10 times during the czechia vs mexico fifa world cup match 20260623165221711	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x218d03…
06-24 11:43:20	will the announcers say shot 10 times during the czechia vs mexico fifa world cup match 20260623165221710	No	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0xa6ac3d…