Lumpy-Emergence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$6.53K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

67.1%

Resolved

2,270

Trades

5,083

lifetime

Volume

$309.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$61

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-20

last 10-18 10:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 108 days

Categories

Other

74% 54% -$4,332

Crypto

19% 56% -$1,396

Sports

6% 46% -$862

Politics

1% 71% +$55

Tech

0% 100% +$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 33 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A	10	$5.6K	3,062	3,062	+0	Vitality	+$137	04-29 17:59
cs2 vit fut 2026 06 11	4	$4.4K	2,714	2,714	+0	Vitality	+$64	06-11 14:36
cs2 vit 9z 2026 06 12 game2	5	$4.3K	4,791	4,791	+0	9z	-$1,715	06-12 18:21
cs2 ts7 vit 2026 04 19	4	$2.7K	1,579	1,568	+11	Vitality	+$320	04-19 20:11
cs2 aur1 hotu 2026 04 13 game2	4	$2.5K	1,298	1,295	+3	Aurora Gaming	+$96	04-13 23:30
highest temperature in shenzhen on march 24 2026 27c	2	$2.0K	1,010	1,010	+0	Yes	+$9	03-24 17:33
cs2 vit g2 2026 04 14	6	$2.0K	1,320	1,312	+8	Vitality	-$109	04-14 15:37
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 20:55 UTC	3	$1.8K	1,366	1,345	+21	Down	+$296	03-28 20:57
nba mia cha 2026 04 14	5	$1.7K	1,468	1,456	+13	Hornets	-$343	04-15 01:55
bun pau bay 2026 04 11 bay	3	$1.7K	1,003	993	+9	Yes	+$302	04-11 18:16
cs2 g2 fut 2026 06 07	12	$1.6K	1,612	1,377	+235	FUT Esports	-$51	06-07 20:49
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner	12	$1.4K	765	764	+1	Vitality	+$85	04-29 15:40
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner	5	$1.4K	970	970	+0	Natus Vincere	-$245	04-29 22:08
cs2 aur1 ts7 2026 06 12	3	$1.4K	851	851	+0	Spirit	-$17	06-12 19:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-12 18:45 UTC	2	$1.3K	1,065	1,065	+0	Down	+$103	06-12 18:46
bun lei moe 2026 04 11 lei	2	$1.1K	735	728	+7	Yes	+$133	04-11 15:10
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10?	5	$1.1K	888	888	+0	Yes	-$63	05-10 17:00
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Voca (BO5) - ESL Challenger League North America Finals Playoffs	5	$1.1K	606	606	+0	M80	+$15	05-29 03:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 19:10 UTC	2	$1.0K	756	744	+12	Down	+$233	03-28 19:10
Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5)	4	$1.0K	631	631	+0	G2	+$16	04-29 19:02
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-28 23:20 UTC	2	$1.0K	684	674	+10	Up	+$221	03-28 23:24
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner	2	$1.0K	510	510	+0	GamerLegion	+$10	05-16 18:08
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	6	$1.0K	729	729	+0	FURIA	-$196	05-15 16:29
cs2 vit red9 2026 04 13 game2	1	$1000	1,053	0	+1,053	Vitality	+$53	04-13 13:35
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 3 Winner	8	$964	665	665	+0	Team Nemesis	+$147	05-28 19:50
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Voca - Map 2 Winner	3	$938	544	544	+0	M80	+$150	05-29 03:06
Spread: Rockets (-5.5)	3	$909	504	501	+3	Lakers	+$95	04-25 03:03
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02?	5	$905	877	877	+0	Yes	-$95	05-02 20:31
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner	6	$904	560	560	+0	FaZe	+$110	05-27 16:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	36	$859	602	589	+13	Up	+$272	04-29 17:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-18 10:18:08	Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Playoffs	Aurora Gaming	BUY	116	43¢	$50	0x2d9d2e…
10-16 18:51:43	dota2 og legion1 2026 10 16	OG	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0xf39283…
10-16 16:01:07	dota2 xe xctn 2026 10 16	Xipto Esports	SELL	75	100¢	$75	0x1b24a4…
10-16 14:57:01	dota2 og legion1 2026 10 16	OG	BUY	71	70¢	$50	0x20552d…
10-16 14:33:10	dota2 xe xctn 2026 10 16	Xipto Esports	BUY	75	66¢	$50	0xff32bb…
10-16 13:58:27	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on October 16?	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0xa0280d…
10-16 12:26:51	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on October 16?	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x93e78a…
10-16 11:16:03	dota2 yg xctn 2026 10 16	Execration	SELL	74	100¢	$74	0xc158b5…
10-16 11:15:33	Overwatch: NTMR vs Disguised (BO5) - OCS North America Stage 3 Group Stage	NTMR	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xdb8104…
10-16 11:15:33	Overwatch: NTMR vs Disguised (BO5) - OCS North America Stage 3 Group Stage	NTMR	BUY	32	60¢	$19	0x73ef1c…
10-16 11:15:33	Overwatch: NTMR vs Disguised (BO5) - OCS North America Stage 3 Group Stage	NTMR	BUY	30	60¢	$18	0x071e41…
10-16 11:15:31	Overwatch: NTMR vs Disguised (BO5) - OCS North America Stage 3 Group Stage	NTMR	BUY	18	60¢	$11	0xf30925…
10-16 11:15:31	r6siege c9 m80 2026 10 16	Cloud9	BUY	147	34¢	$50	0xa34516…
10-16 10:57:21	Overwatch: NTMR vs Disguised (BO5) - OCS North America Stage 3 Group Stage	NTMR	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x0a094e…
10-16 10:09:06	Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs Resp Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam China Closed Qualifier Playoffs	Team Tidebound	SELL	100	50¢	$50	0x967621…
10-16 08:10:24	Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs Resp Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam China Closed Qualifier Playoffs	Team Tidebound	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x8a62f2…
10-16 08:09:58	dota2 yg xctn 2026 10 16	Execration	BUY	74	68¢	$50	0x80b290…
10-16 07:53:57	Counter-Strike: Joga de terno vs your end (BO3) - CCT South America Series 7 Group Stage	Joga de terno	BUY	85	59¢	$50	0xf3ecd0…
10-15 15:11:20	dota2 yg iac 2026 10 15	Yangon Galacticos	BUY	106	47¢	$50	0x8096eb…
10-15 14:16:50	dota2 lynx dawnbu 2026 10 15	Team Lynx	SELL	104	100¢	$104	0x50d096…
10-15 14:08:40	dota2 playti skyrea 2026 10 15	PlayTime	BUY	90	57¢	$51	0xe42b6b…
10-15 09:27:34	Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Dawn Bulls (BO3) - DreamLeague Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs	Team Lynx	BUY	104	48¢	$50	0x16eda1…
10-14 23:37:13	dota2 dawnbu salami 2026 10 14	Dawn Bulls	SELL	59	100¢	$59	0xa191af…
10-14 19:43:33	dota2 yes pr1 2026 10 14	Yellow Submarine	SELL	66	100¢	$66	0xb20158…
10-14 18:27:10	dota2 nemiga salami 2026 10 14	salamit	SELL	74	96¢	$70	0xf10384…
10-14 17:46:13	dota2 dawnbu salami 2026 10 14	Dawn Bulls	BUY	59	68¢	$40	0x2af71a…
10-14 13:04:08	cs2 hotu ast10 2026 10 14 game1	HOTU	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0xfe41ce…
10-14 12:08:05	dota2 nemiga salami 2026 10 14	salamit	BUY	74	68¢	$50	0xc67df7…
10-14 12:07:47	dota2 yes pr1 2026 10 14	Yellow Submarine	BUY	66	76¢	$50	0xba5ab4…
10-13 16:34:52	dota2 huliga yes 2026 10 13	Yellow Submarine	BUY	70	71¢	$50	0x66354d…
10-13 14:08:05	cs2 100t tl1 2026 10 13 game1	100 Thieves	SELL	83	100¢	$83	0x9dd287…
10-13 14:07:59	Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on October 13?	No	SELL	57	99¢	$57	0xa9b0a0…
10-13 14:07:47	Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on October 13?	Yes	SELL	87	68¢	$59	0x8ad968…
10-13 13:27:20	cs2 100t tl1 2026 10 13 game1	100 Thieves	BUY	83	60¢	$50	0x5f7218…
10-13 13:07:20	dota2 pr1 thewar 2026 10 13	The Warriors	BUY	38	40¢	$15	0xbf97dd…
10-13 13:06:59	dota2 playti hkr 2026 10 13	PlayTime	BUY	62	81¢	$50	0x812143…
10-13 10:10:58	Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	87	23¢	$20	0x6cbd00…
10-13 10:10:22	Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on October 13?	No	BUY	57	87¢	$50	0x3ab979…
10-13 10:09:26	Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs JiJieHao - Map 1 Winner	JiJieHao	BUY	89	56¢	$50	0x6c1d89…
10-12 13:37:20	cs2 ice nip 2026 10 12 game1	NIP	BUY	85	59¢	$50	0x11ed0d…
10-12 13:08:51	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on October 12?	No	BUY	47	42¢	$20	0x5430e2…
10-12 13:08:00	Dota 2: Team Lynx vs CyberHero (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group A	CyberHero	BUY	54	65¢	$35	0xdd401b…
10-11 18:47:00	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 4 Winner	Team Spirit	BUY	91	44¢	$40	0x5a2dda…
10-11 15:35:25	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner	Team Yandex	BUY	93	54¢	$50	0xb9025b…
10-11 15:00:12	Counter-Strike: Imperial vs NRG - Map 1 Winner	Imperial	BUY	73	67¢	$49	0xf0fcfc…
10-11 14:46:31	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on October 11?	Yes	SELL	32	99¢	$32	0xe8a56b…
10-11 14:46:22	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs	Team Yandex	BUY	89	56¢	$50	0x0681b8…
10-11 11:33:30	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on October 11?	Yes	BUY	32	47¢	$15	0xa3b08f…
10-11 11:28:42	Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs Gothic (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In	Gothic	BUY	51	59¢	$30	0x7d4ded…
10-11 11:27:47	Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs	PARIVISION	BUY	79	63¢	$50	0x4ce3aa…
10-11 11:11:39	Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs Gothic (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In	Gothic	BUY	56	54¢	$30	0x8499c2…
10-10 23:09:36	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on October 12?	Yes	SELL	193	10¢	$20	0x630095…
10-10 23:06:27	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on October 12?	Yes	BUY	193	16¢	$30	0x7a5a83…
10-10 15:24:19	Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner	Aurora	BUY	64	47¢	$30	0x72d82b…
10-10 14:41:34	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 10?	Yes	SELL	112	0¢	$0	0x7c37a9…
10-10 14:41:24	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 10?	Yes	SELL	53	99¢	$52	0xe837b2…
10-10 13:28:24	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	112	4¢	$4	0xcb1e5d…
10-10 13:26:16	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 10?	No	SELL	42	100¢	$42	0xc01d5c…
10-10 12:42:49	Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs	PARIVISION	BUY	97	77¢	$75	0x5fb451…
10-10 12:31:51	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	46	76¢	$35	0x778aab…
10-10 12:29:09	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 10?	No	BUY	42	72¢	$30	0xccfbc3…
10-10 12:02:04	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x9c7866…
10-10 11:56:54	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 10?	Yes	BUY	2	72¢	$1	0xb50580…
10-10 11:50:27	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner	Team Spirit	BUY	67	45¢	$30	0xc4b723…
10-10 09:51:28	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs	Team Yandex	BUY	79	63¢	$50	0x2c90d2…
10-09 18:29:53	cs2 mouzn leo2 2026 10 09 game2	MOUZ NXT	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0xe0ea7d…
10-09 18:05:58	Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs	PARIVISION	SELL	86	100¢	$86	0x73ac63…
10-09 16:43:43	dota2 1win pari 2026 10 09 game2	PARIVISION	SELL	69	100¢	$69	0x8ff690…
10-09 15:52:40	Counter-Strike: THE UNIT vs Not A Squad Esports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia-Pacific Cup #3 Playoffs	THE UNIT	SELL	48	100¢	$47	0x923bd3…
10-09 15:10:54	Counter-Strike: CTRL Esports vs Vitality Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Regular Group C	CTRL Esports	SELL	77	100¢	$77	0x18a8df…
10-09 15:10:43	Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner	PARIVISION	BUY	69	72¢	$50	0x12fb66…
10-09 14:55:42	Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner	PARIVISION	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0x7b5b73…
10-09 13:38:57	Counter-Strike: THE UNIT vs Not A Squad Esports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia-Pacific Cup #3 Playoffs	THE UNIT	BUY	48	63¢	$30	0x8a60f5…
10-09 10:55:52	Counter-Strike: CTRL Esports vs Vitality Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Regular Group C	CTRL Esports	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0x2786cc…
10-09 10:29:28	Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on October 9?	No	SELL	114	27¢	$30	0xcc59fb…
10-09 10:14:10	dota2 1win pari 2026 10 09	PARIVISION	BUY	86	87¢	$75	0x5d0210…
10-09 09:24:00	Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs	Aurora	BUY	125	36¢	$45	0xe10296…
10-09 06:18:54	Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on October 9?	No	BUY	114	75¢	$85	0xaba918…
10-08 22:02:18	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on October 8?	No	SELL	53	100¢	$53	0x8a0d5e…
10-08 19:55:21	Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner	Team Yandex	SELL	75	100¢	$75	0xac8a47…
10-08 19:49:14	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on October 8?	No	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x9baf4b…
10-08 18:10:45	Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner	Team Yandex	BUY	75	40¢	$30	0x49fd6d…
10-08 16:38:15	Dota 2: LEGION vs Blasterbl (BO5) - PARI Universe Closed Qualifier Playoffs	LEGION	BUY	45	67¢	$30	0x078d78…
10-08 15:46:23	Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs	PARIVISION	BUY	75	67¢	$50	0x3f25ce…
10-08 15:38:24	Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 2 Winner	1win	BUY	59	51¢	$30	0x0a396d…
10-08 14:53:03	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 8?	No	SELL	43	100¢	$43	0xdda6f8…
10-08 14:52:56	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 8?	Yes	SELL	88	99¢	$87	0xf129e5…
10-08 14:09:15	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0xf089b1…
10-08 13:23:36	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	88	40¢	$35	0xfa3b4c…
10-08 13:23:18	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 8?	No	BUY	43	40¢	$17	0xf31002…
10-08 12:36:29	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs	Team Yandex	SELL	84	100¢	$84	0x9ef91b…
10-08 12:35:11	Valorant: Team Vitality vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs	Nongshim RedForce	BUY	103	34¢	$35	0x91fac6…
10-08 11:40:14	Counter-Strike: EAC Extra vs THE UNIT (BO3) - United21 Playoffs	THE UNIT	SELL	102	100¢	$102	0xec9ba9…
10-08 11:00:12	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on October 8?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x61a3a1…
10-08 10:55:42	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on October 8?	No	BUY	91	50¢	$45	0x5eb1a6…
10-08 10:45:26	Counter-Strike: EAC Extra vs THE UNIT (BO3) - United21 Playoffs	THE UNIT	BUY	102	73¢	$75	0xb3b188…
10-08 10:44:29	Valorant: 100 Thieves vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs	100 Thieves	BUY	61	49¢	$30	0x89c1ec…
10-08 10:24:17	Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs InterActive Philippines - Game 3 Winner	InterActive Philippines	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x0cbea8…
10-08 10:19:11	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on October 8?	No	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0x7c6719…
10-08 10:18:47	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on October 8?	No	BUY	15	64¢	$10	0xb8e0bb…