Well-Informed-Witness — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$93.5K

Unrealized P&L

+$100

Hit rate

52.5%

Resolved

69,574

Trades

392,382

lifetime

Volume

$3.29M

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$496

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-24

last 10-27 15:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 218 days

Categories

Crypto

64% 52% +$36,516

Other

19% 52% +$7,824

Sports

18% 52% +$49,313

Politics

0% 67% -$122

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 3043 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	—	+1,003	$386	48¢	$476	+$90	10-27 01:57
Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	—	+20	$10	100¢	$20	+$10	10-27 15:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-29 16:40 UTC	4	$30.4K	30,396	+30,396	Down	+$30	07-29 16:46
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-09 00:50 UTC	22	$30.2K	30,520	+30,520	Down	+$258	07-09 00:55
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-12 14:30 UTC	2	$26.4K	26,475	+26,475	Down	+$26	08-12 14:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	2	$12.2K	12,261	+12,261	Down	+$12	07-05 01:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	53	$10.9K	11,013	+11,013	Down	+$110	08-03 17:06
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	347	$7.4K	12,656	+12,656	No	+$26	04-11 13:17
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-01 14:30 UTC	9	$7.0K	6,968	+6,968	Down	+$7	08-01 14:46
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-09 17:45 UTC	1	$5.0K	5,000	+5,000	Down	+$5	08-09 18:00
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?	75	$4.4K	9,146	+9,146	Yes	+$1,145	04-10 14:15
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-17 13:15 UTC	13	$4.4K	4,444	+4,444	Down	+$4	08-17 13:45
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-21 13:00 UTC	2	$3.5K	3,591	+3,591	Up	+$28	08-21 13:15
atp virtane majchrz 2026 06 08	54	$3.5K	8,000	+8,000	Kamil Majchrzak	+$540	06-07 12:00
mlb cin cws 2026 08 13 hr eugenio suarez 0pt5	5	$3.4K	4,600	+4,600	Over	-$3,400	08-13 17:15
fifwc can qat 2026 06 18 spread home 3pt5	5	$3.4K	4,200	+4,200	Canada	-$3,352	06-14 13:22
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria?	5	$3.3K	4,000	+4,000	No	+$690	06-17 02:42
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?	5	$3.3K	4,000	+4,000	Yes	-$3,310	06-12 04:16
Spread: Haiti (-1.5)	5	$3.3K	4,000	+4,000	Scotland	+$690	06-13 21:49
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia?	6	$3.3K	4,000	+4,000	Yes	-$3,310	06-20 05:11
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	72	$3.3K	3,913	+3,913	Yes	-$3,270	06-12 17:43
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria?	5	$3.2K	4,000	+4,000	No	+$810	06-12 04:16
mlb tb bos 2026 07 17 f5 total 3pt5	29	$3.2K	6,700	+6,700	Over	+$843	07-17 18:25
mlb cin cws 2026 08 13 hr sal stewart 0pt5	5	$3.1K	4,200	+4,200	Over	-$3,142	08-13 17:13
nba atl mia 2026 04 12 spread away 4pt5	91	$3.1K	5,521	+5,521	Heat	-$81	04-12 19:00
wta eala zhen 2026 07 27	11	$3.1K	6,983	+6,983	Alexandra Eala	+$883	07-28 11:08
mlb tb bos 2026 07 17 f5 total 2pt5	33	$3.0K	7,800	+7,800	Over	+$358	07-17 18:06
fifwc bra hai 2026 06 19 spread home 4pt5	5	$3.0K	4,400	+4,400	Haiti	+$1,369	06-14 13:22
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti?	5	$3.0K	3,800	+3,800	Yes	-$3,029	06-12 03:22
fifwc par aus 2026 06 25 total 0pt5	8	$3.0K	3,600	+3,600	Under	-$2,998	06-20 05:10
fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 spread away 3pt5	5	$2.9K	4,000	+4,000	Paraguay	+$1,130	07-04 03:51
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?	43	$2.9K	5,056	+5,056	No	+$707	04-10 07:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 15:28:48	Game Spread: Carmen Andreea Herea (-7.5) vs Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano (+7.5)	Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano	BUY	17	41¢	$7	0x7a6adb…
10-27 15:26:24	Game Spread: Carmen Andreea Herea (-7.5) vs Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano (+7.5)	Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano	BUY	41	41¢	$17	0x7995ec…
10-27 15:02:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	12	49¢	$6	0x73748c…
10-27 15:00:09	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xd30bed…
10-27 14:39:57	Game Spread: Carmen Andreea Herea (-7.5) vs Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano (+7.5)	Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano	BUY	28	40¢	$11	0x19e10c…
10-27 14:27:00	XRP Up or Down - October 27, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	11	49¢	$5	0x014cee…
10-27 14:24:29	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x763277…
10-27 14:22:59	Game Spread: Carmen Andreea Herea (-7.5) vs Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano (+7.5)	Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano	BUY	22	40¢	$9	0xe0a84f…
10-27 14:22:53	Game Spread: Carmen Andreea Herea (-7.5) vs Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano (+7.5)	Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x89cf97…
10-27 14:22:50	BNB Up or Down - October 27, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x223838…
10-27 14:22:06	Game Spread: Carmen Andreea Herea (-7.5) vs Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano (+7.5)	Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano	BUY	55	40¢	$22	0x8f954d…
10-27 14:22:02	Game Spread: Carmen Andreea Herea (-7.5) vs Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano (+7.5)	Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xe936f5…
10-27 14:12:32	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	40	48¢	$19	0x121aa3…
10-27 14:12:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	40	49¢	$20	0xba0b57…
10-27 14:05:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x8994d4…
10-27 13:54:36	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x88020b…
10-27 13:51:42	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	38	46¢	$17	0x646b1f…
10-27 13:51:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	60	47¢	$28	0xd676c0…
10-27 13:51:09	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	40	48¢	$19	0x995d54…
10-27 13:50:57	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	40	49¢	$20	0x601389…
10-27 13:43:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	40	49¢	$20	0x867146…
10-27 13:37:12	Griffin Jax: Outs Recorded O/U 10.5	Under	BUY	13	42¢	$6	0xcf1923…
10-27 13:37:11	Griffin Jax: Outs Recorded O/U 10.5	Under	BUY	8	42¢	$3	0x48900c…
10-27 13:30:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	40	49¢	$20	0x0f303c…
10-27 13:29:53	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	58	47¢	$27	0xabcd46…
10-27 13:29:26	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	40	48¢	$19	0x7c17bf…
10-27 13:28:23	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	40	49¢	$20	0x1651ca…
10-27 13:20:11	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	40	48¢	$19	0xbdd472…
10-27 13:10:18	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	40	49¢	$20	0x49fd5e…
10-27 13:06:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	40	49¢	$20	0x1be16e…
10-27 13:02:06	Walker Kessler: Points O/U 12.5	No	BUY	9	42¢	$4	0xd54b8e…
10-27 13:02:06	Walker Kessler: Points O/U 12.5	No	BUY	40	42¢	$17	0x53b8e4…
10-27 12:57:23	wta dart tjen 2026 10 27 match total 21pt5	Under	BUY	31	50¢	$16	0x45d9c5…
10-27 12:56:26	wta dart tjen 2026 10 27 match total 21pt5	Under	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x66e636…
10-27 12:55:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x3c7646…
10-27 12:55:05	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	26	49¢	$13	0x1b8047…
10-27 12:55:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xfe3ee3…
10-27 12:54:35	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	9	49¢	$4	0x2e3568…
10-27 12:45:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x052d90…
10-27 12:44:35	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x6bdfaa…
10-27 12:40:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xa8661f…
10-27 12:40:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x817b12…
10-27 12:40:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x36c662…
10-27 12:39:36	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x426373…
10-27 12:39:29	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x7f25fd…
10-27 12:39:15	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xfc7b7c…
10-27 12:39:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	3	49¢	$1	0x76ed3c…
10-27 12:38:35	BNB Up or Down - October 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	12	49¢	$6	0xfba73a…
10-27 12:38:20	BNB Up or Down - October 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	17	49¢	$8	0xb8e866…
10-27 12:38:06	BNB Up or Down - October 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	17	49¢	$8	0x4fa03a…
10-27 12:26:02	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xfef96c…
10-27 12:25:32	St. Louis City SC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Over	BUY	1	56¢	$0	0x55c1b9…
10-27 12:25:30	St. Louis City SC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Over	BUY	500	56¢	$280	0x8748be…
10-27 12:25:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xec98e4…
10-27 12:23:48	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	40	49¢	$20	0xa2dd20…
10-27 12:20:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xdcc94e…
10-27 12:11:20	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0xa78e78…
10-27 12:09:59	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	40	48¢	$19	0x60a0f3…
10-27 12:09:47	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	40	49¢	$20	0x14dd4c…
10-27 11:54:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0xf6c979…
10-27 11:53:39	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	60	47¢	$28	0x780ef4…
10-27 11:53:24	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	40	48¢	$19	0x957527…
10-27 11:53:11	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	40	49¢	$20	0x26e2c3…
10-27 11:34:45	San Jose Earthquakes vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Over	BUY	498	42¢	$209	0xb21091…
10-27 11:31:57	St. Louis City SC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Over	BUY	499	45¢	$225	0xa0c00d…
10-27 11:28:08	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	12	49¢	$6	0xd41841…
10-27 11:17:44	BNB Up or Down - October 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	12	49¢	$6	0x17454e…
10-27 11:17:08	XRP Up or Down - October 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	12	49¢	$6	0xd348c2…
10-27 11:16:54	XRP Up or Down - October 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	12	49¢	$6	0xd7f5db…
10-27 11:01:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	1	49¢	$0	0x9f5ea9…
10-27 10:46:44	XRP Up or Down - October 27, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x5a24b5…
10-27 10:24:32	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	40	49¢	$20	0x46a9b6…
10-27 10:17:45	Guayaquil: Nicolas Jarry vs Hugo Dellien	Nicolas Jarry	BUY	486	46¢	$224	0xcb7488…
10-27 10:16:33	Guayaquil: Nicolas Jarry vs Hugo Dellien	Nicolas Jarry	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0x353d63…
10-27 10:15:05	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	30	47¢	$14	0x28db9d…
10-27 10:10:38	Guayaquil: Nicolas Jarry vs Hugo Dellien	Nicolas Jarry	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x6bebef…
10-27 10:07:39	Guayaquil: Nicolas Jarry vs Hugo Dellien	Nicolas Jarry	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x6dda0b…
10-27 10:07:00	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	40	49¢	$20	0xd9a339…
10-27 10:00:12	Guayaquil: Nicolas Jarry vs Hugo Dellien	Nicolas Jarry	BUY	9	47¢	$4	0x7ada2f…
10-27 09:57:48	Guayaquil: Nicolas Jarry vs Hugo Dellien	Nicolas Jarry	BUY	26	47¢	$12	0xe08702…
10-27 09:57:21	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	40	49¢	$20	0x64cc97…
10-27 09:55:39	Brest: Michele Ribecai vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	BUY	385	50¢	$193	0x9326ac…
10-27 09:55:20	Guayaquil: Nicolas Jarry vs Hugo Dellien	Nicolas Jarry	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x927ce8…
10-27 09:53:54	BNB Up or Down - October 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xf6ccd4…
10-27 09:53:18	Guayaquil: Nicolas Jarry vs Hugo Dellien	Nicolas Jarry	BUY	30	47¢	$14	0x269c24…
10-27 09:53:12	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x2f2585…
10-27 09:53:11	Guayaquil: Nicolas Jarry vs Hugo Dellien	Nicolas Jarry	BUY	50	47¢	$24	0x927b94…
10-27 09:53:05	Guayaquil: Nicolas Jarry vs Hugo Dellien	Nicolas Jarry	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x75ee60…
10-27 09:53:00	Guayaquil: Nicolas Jarry vs Hugo Dellien	Nicolas Jarry	BUY	47	47¢	$22	0x8805a3…
10-27 09:52:56	Guayaquil: Nicolas Jarry vs Hugo Dellien	Nicolas Jarry	BUY	47	47¢	$22	0x47badd…
10-27 09:52:54	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x057c46…
10-27 09:52:51	Guayaquil: Nicolas Jarry vs Hugo Dellien	Nicolas Jarry	BUY	57	47¢	$27	0xee8514…
10-27 09:52:47	Guayaquil: Nicolas Jarry vs Hugo Dellien	Nicolas Jarry	BUY	47	47¢	$22	0x3cd446…
10-27 09:52:42	Guayaquil: Nicolas Jarry vs Hugo Dellien	Nicolas Jarry	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xc83689…
10-27 09:52:42	Guayaquil: Nicolas Jarry vs Hugo Dellien	Nicolas Jarry	BUY	7	47¢	$3	0x8207aa…
10-27 09:52:11	XRP Up or Down - October 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	12	49¢	$6	0x85a1b8…
10-27 09:49:48	Set 1 Winner: Michele Ribecai vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x09b14a…
10-27 09:44:18	Set 2 Winner: Michele Ribecai vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	BUY	15	50¢	$8	0x2dfff5…
10-27 09:23:05	wta jones urrutia 2026 10 27 game handicap home 6pt5	Marria Urrutia	BUY	40	40¢	$16	0x676612…
10-27 08:59:57	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x358fff…