Inconsequential-Spider — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$342

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

46.5%

Resolved

432

Trades

1,488

lifetime

Volume

$16.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 09-29 21:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 139 days

Categories

Other

95% 48% -$295

Crypto

3% 77% -$34

Politics

1% 29% -$3

Sports

1% 33% -$11

Tech

0% 29% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

48 active days in 12wk • peak 57 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes		+20	$5	28¢	$6	+$1	09-17 21:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on July 31?	18	$217	150	150	+0	Yes	+$82	08-01 07:43
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 25?	8	$213	150	150	+0	Yes	+$75	07-25 07:13
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 25?	19	$209	283	283	+0	No	-$62	07-25 18:40
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 31?	7	$192	120	120	+0	Yes	+$48	08-31 12:02
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 21?	2	$180	150	150	+0	Yes	+$0	08-21 11:46
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 27?	9	$178	150	150	+0	Yes	+$2	07-27 02:45
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 10?	16	$169	141	141	+0	No	$0	08-09 20:00
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 11?	6	$165	150	150	+0	Yes	+$0	08-11 01:17
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on August 8?	14	$165	150	150	+0	No	-$9	08-08 06:09
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 24?	16	$164	150	150	+0	No	+$5	07-24 10:59
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on August 20?	3	$163	150	150	+0	Yes	-$14	08-19 23:00
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 20?	12	$163	150	150	+0	No	+$1	08-20 08:02
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on August 22?	17	$158	150	150	+0	No	-$7	08-22 11:33
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on August 13?	8	$156	150	150	+0	Yes	+$0	08-13 14:35
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 7?	9	$156	150	150	+0	Yes	-$3	08-07 01:36
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 7?	8	$156	150	150	+0	Yes	-$9	08-07 13:09
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 27?	5	$153	150	150	+0	Yes	-$12	07-27 00:10
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on September 16?	8	$152	120	120	+0	No	-$1	09-15 22:34
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 8?	11	$150	150	150	+0	No	-$18	08-07 15:09
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 29?	10	$150	150	149	+1	Yes	-$11	07-29 12:52
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on September 10?	15	$143	120	120	+0	Yes	-$10	09-10 00:15
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on August 18?	5	$140	150	150	+0	No	-$17	08-18 06:07
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 30?	7	$139	150	150	+0	No	-$26	07-30 05:59
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 9?	20	$137	132	132	+0	No	$0	08-09 11:36
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 31?	11	$137	120	120	+0	Yes	+$0	08-31 16:51
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on September 11?	12	$133	120	120	+0	Yes	-$16	09-11 05:56
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 24?	6	$130	100	100	+0	Yes	$0	07-23 21:15
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 5?	8	$129	150	150	+0	Yes	+$0	08-04 19:59
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C on August 6?	6	$129	150	150	+0	Yes	+$0	08-05 21:40
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 28?	12	$129	150	150	+0	No	-$12	07-28 04:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-29 21:00:41	Will Manchester City reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal?	Yes	SELL	14	31¢	$4	0x22b74d…
09-29 21:00:20	Will Real Madrid reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal?	Yes	SELL	10	43¢	$4	0xc1ed63…
09-29 20:59:24	Will Villarreal reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League Round of 16?	Yes	SELL	18	28¢	$5	0x94de23…
09-29 20:59:05	Tesla Roadster delivered by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	25	35¢	$9	0x582695…
09-29 20:58:45	Will Disney get the U.S. English-language rights to broadcast the 2030 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	25	46¢	$12	0x01aecc…
09-29 20:57:26	Will Real Betis reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League Round of 16?	Yes	SELL	11	48¢	$5	0x1aae06…
09-29 20:56:53	Will Atlético Madrid reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League Round of 16?	Yes	SELL	10	57¢	$6	0x9c3053…
09-29 20:56:36	Will Barcelona reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal?	Yes	SELL	11	53¢	$6	0xbe821a…
09-29 20:54:48	Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	62¢	$0	0x170d46…
09-24 07:46:14	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	25	78¢	$20	0x9b8435…
09-23 23:40:34	Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	61¢	$0	0x27dbfe…
09-23 18:42:07	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	25	78¢	$20	0x29ac08…
09-23 17:58:16	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	15	77¢	$12	0x1a48da…
09-22 08:20:46	Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	1	68¢	$1	0x8360b8…
09-22 02:19:39	Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	1	68¢	$1	0x41c75e…
09-22 02:15:09	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0x84db0e…
09-21 23:10:13	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0xcf041e…
09-21 21:43:15	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	25	77¢	$19	0x004898…
09-21 20:17:22	Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	2	68¢	$1	0xb7c812…
09-21 19:32:22	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x5b1a6b…
09-21 19:32:18	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	18	27¢	$5	0x383025…
09-21 18:08:45	Will Mariana Rodríguez Cantú win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election?	Yes	SELL	25	25¢	$6	0xb21f4d…
09-20 13:07:36	Tesla Roadster delivered by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xb8bb6a…
09-20 13:07:36	Tesla Roadster delivered by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0xab2d9f…
09-20 08:09:19	Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?	No	SELL	4	78¢	$3	0xebfe13…
09-20 08:08:54	Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?	No	SELL	11	78¢	$8	0x87f2a4…
09-19 12:37:50	Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	19	68¢	$13	0xc724b4…
09-19 01:30:33	Tesla Roadster delivered by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	44¢	$2	0xe80f05…
09-19 01:30:31	Tesla Roadster delivered by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	19	44¢	$9	0x6c9fe4…
09-17 23:07:52	Will Adam Scheinherr be the next Mayor of Prague?	No	SELL	25	90¢	$22	0x78ecf5…
09-17 22:49:04	Will Adam Scheinherr be the next Mayor of Prague?	No	BUY	25	90¢	$22	0x0a1c81…
09-17 21:40:54	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x90bad7…
09-16 10:06:15	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	25	32¢	$8	0x14c95c…
09-16 09:49:33	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	19	32¢	$6	0xa7bddc…
09-16 09:49:31	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x511d84…
09-15 22:52:57	Tesla Roadster delivered by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	25	44¢	$11	0xa03965…
09-15 22:34:07	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on September 16?	Yes	SELL	10	58¢	$6	0x90a3c7…
09-15 21:39:57	Will Disney get the U.S. English-language rights to broadcast the 2030 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	25	58¢	$14	0xd77fe7…
09-15 21:27:31	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on September 16?	Yes	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0x6fd729…
09-15 21:21:40	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on September 16?	Yes	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0x11b8bc…
09-15 21:10:57	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on September 16?	Yes	SELL	3	58¢	$2	0xbcbbf2…
09-15 19:40:55	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on September 16?	Yes	SELL	100	64¢	$64	0x64f5c6…
09-15 19:39:37	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on September 16?	Yes	BUY	15	64¢	$9	0xaf2619…
09-15 19:39:37	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on September 16?	Yes	BUY	45	64¢	$29	0x8e0c35…
09-15 19:39:36	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on September 16?	Yes	BUY	60	64¢	$38	0x3c679d…
09-15 17:19:33	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 16?	Yes	SELL	44	56¢	$24	0x2ce8d8…
09-15 17:17:31	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 16?	Yes	SELL	8	56¢	$4	0xffa420…
09-15 17:17:31	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 16?	Yes	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0x12191e…
09-15 16:13:01	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 16?	Yes	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x63bec5…
09-15 16:12:24	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 16?	Yes	BUY	4	66¢	$3	0x0926a5…
09-15 16:12:15	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 16?	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xcbc1f8…
09-15 16:12:06	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 16?	Yes	BUY	30	66¢	$20	0x3b7e48…
09-15 16:12:06	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 16?	Yes	BUY	12	66¢	$8	0x056d25…
09-15 16:12:04	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 16?	Yes	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xf6ebd4…
09-15 14:03:34	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on September 15?	Yes	SELL	51	43¢	$22	0x1e583a…
09-15 14:01:21	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on September 15?	Yes	SELL	3	47¢	$1	0xdaed0e…
09-15 12:11:28	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on September 15?	Yes	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0xed8380…
09-15 12:11:01	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on September 15?	Yes	SELL	12	50¢	$6	0xaf9e4b…
09-15 12:11:01	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on September 15?	Yes	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x47456e…
09-15 12:10:57	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on September 15?	Yes	SELL	5	50¢	$2	0x6374c3…
09-15 12:10:54	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on September 15?	Yes	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x2b8b5b…
09-15 12:10:52	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on September 15?	Yes	SELL	8	50¢	$4	0xdd0912…
09-15 12:10:52	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on September 15?	Yes	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0xd7a17d…
09-15 12:10:52	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on September 15?	Yes	SELL	1	50¢	$0	0x68a295…
09-15 12:10:52	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on September 15?	Yes	SELL	3	50¢	$1	0x63ab5a…
09-15 12:03:07	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on September 15?	Yes	SELL	10	50¢	$5	0x127d9e…
09-15 10:40:19	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on September 15?	Yes	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0xfd5fd1…
09-15 09:16:34	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on September 15?	Yes	SELL	3	50¢	$1	0xa3c859…
09-15 09:15:19	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on September 15?	Yes	BUY	3	50¢	$1	0xedd994…
09-15 08:20:12	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on September 15?	Yes	BUY	120	50¢	$60	0x57b2ca…
09-15 06:47:10	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on September 15?	Yes	SELL	12	40¢	$5	0xc11b94…
09-15 06:44:55	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on September 15?	Yes	SELL	16	41¢	$7	0xded8e7…
09-15 06:42:40	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on September 15?	Yes	SELL	40	44¢	$18	0xe9d545…
09-15 06:40:27	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on September 15?	Yes	SELL	10	44¢	$4	0x61b13d…
09-15 06:38:13	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on September 15?	Yes	SELL	42	46¢	$19	0xb5df84…
09-15 06:35:31	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on September 15?	Yes	BUY	120	57¢	$68	0x9192ec…
09-15 06:08:06	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on September 15?	Yes	SELL	40	44¢	$18	0xa7d9d7…
09-15 06:05:52	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on September 15?	Yes	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0x5fdf55…
09-15 06:03:37	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on September 15?	Yes	SELL	10	45¢	$4	0x6a94de…
09-15 06:01:24	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on September 15?	Yes	SELL	10	45¢	$4	0x645763…
09-15 05:56:37	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on September 15?	Yes	SELL	38	48¢	$18	0xb0a53a…
09-15 05:22:42	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on September 15?	Yes	SELL	29	63¢	$18	0xa6da71…
09-15 05:20:00	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on September 15?	Yes	SELL	21	63¢	$13	0xadb980…
09-15 05:19:00	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on September 15?	Yes	BUY	7	63¢	$4	0x9ee413…
09-15 05:18:58	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on September 15?	Yes	BUY	44	63¢	$28	0xb7722a…
09-15 04:36:06	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on September 15?	Yes	SELL	18	48¢	$8	0x3f8c2d…
09-15 02:11:13	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on September 15?	Yes	BUY	7	48¢	$4	0x288d0e…
09-15 02:11:12	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on September 15?	Yes	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x95aa6d…
09-15 02:11:12	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on September 15?	Yes	BUY	100	48¢	$48	0x6aeaf1…
09-15 02:11:12	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on September 15?	Yes	BUY	7	48¢	$3	0x50f7bc…
09-15 00:45:31	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on September 15?	Yes	SELL	16	72¢	$11	0xc2f99b…
09-15 00:15:42	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on September 15?	Yes	BUY	16	72¢	$11	0x7b83b8…
09-14 01:32:40	Will Adam Scheinherr be the next Mayor of Prague?	Yes	BUY	12	7¢	$1	0xc49b32…
09-13 23:21:57	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on September 14?	Yes	SELL	35	30¢	$11	0xdcb762…
09-13 23:19:40	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on September 14?	Yes	SELL	5	31¢	$2	0x3100e1…
09-13 23:17:27	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on September 14?	Yes	SELL	8	33¢	$3	0x0254dc…
09-13 23:15:10	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on September 14?	Yes	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0xa497d8…
09-13 23:12:58	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on September 14?	Yes	SELL	10	35¢	$4	0xece32c…
09-13 23:12:57	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on September 14?	Yes	SELL	3	35¢	$1	0xca0640…
09-13 23:12:54	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on September 14?	Yes	SELL	11	35¢	$4	0xf24e49…