High-Level-Blog — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$576

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

74.3%

Resolved

103

Trades

179

lifetime

Volume

$18.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$105

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 09-05 18:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 15 days

Categories

Crypto

95% 61% -$671

Other

4% 75% +$95

Tech

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 6?	4	$552	806	806	+0	Up	+$152	05-06 14:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	4	$499	372	372	+0	Down	+$99	05-06 13:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11PM ET	4	$473	649	392	+256	Up	-$127	05-06 03:14
si hit 90 high jan 2026 157 295 494	3	$463	294	294	+0	Yes	+$63	01-14 11:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8PM ET	2	$313	312	312	+0	Up	+$113	05-06 00:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6AM ET	2	$298	198	198	+0	Down	+$98	05-07 11:15
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-27 16:45 UTC	6	$294	230	230	+0	Up	-$6	06-27 16:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	2	$288	196	196	+0	Up	+$88	05-08 10:58
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 6AM ET	2	$287	187	187	+0	Down	+$87	05-07 11:15
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	2	$280	186	186	+0	Down	+$80	05-08 15:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	2	$278	290	290	+0	Up	+$78	05-08 06:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10AM ET	2	$276	176	176	+0	Down	+$76	05-09 15:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	2	$275	188	188	+0	Down	+$75	05-07 09:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12PM ET	2	$274	185	185	+0	Down	+$74	05-08 16:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	2	$273	190	190	+0	Down	+$73	05-09 09:17
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 10AM ET	2	$271	171	171	+0	Down	+$71	05-09 15:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10PM ET	2	$269	186	186	+0	Down	+$69	05-06 02:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	2	$269	192	192	+0	Down	+$69	05-06 12:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12AM ET	2	$267	185	185	+0	Down	+$67	05-06 04:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10AM ET	2	$267	196	196	+0	Down	+$67	05-07 14:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	2	$263	191	191	+0	Down	+$63	05-08 15:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	2	$262	208	208	+0	Down	+$63	05-07 14:17
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	2	$257	194	194	+0	Down	+$57	05-06 12:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	2	$256	200	200	+0	Down	+$56	05-05 16:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9AM ET	2	$252	167	167	+0	Down	+$52	05-07 13:35
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 9AM ET	2	$251	152	152	+0	Down	+$51	05-09 14:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	2	$251	196	196	+0	Down	+$51	05-07 14:33
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7?	2	$246	190	190	+0	Down	+$46	05-07 04:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9AM ET	3	$239	189	189	+0	Down	+$39	05-06 13:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7AM ET	2	$238	194	194	+0	Up	+$38	05-07 11:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-05 18:33:34	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	93	47¢	$44	0xa40670…
08-28 12:56:15	Will Lighter reach $4 before 2027?	Yes	BUY	51	78¢	$40	0xf4aa27…
08-28 12:55:28	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	93	54¢	$50	0xbfa763…
06-29 04:49:02	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-29 04:45 UTC	Down	SELL	77	71¢	$55	0x45ed8c…
06-29 04:46:50	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-29 04:45 UTC	Down	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0x10168b…
06-27 17:17:53	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-27 17:15 UTC	Up	SELL	94	58¢	$55	0x9bdf0e…
06-27 17:13:01	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-27 17:15 UTC	Up	BUY	94	53¢	$50	0x39684d…
06-27 17:06:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-27 17:05 UTC	Up	SELL	65	81¢	$52	0xeb859e…
06-27 17:05:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-27 17:05 UTC	Up	BUY	65	77¢	$50	0x72b014…
06-27 17:01:50	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-27 17:00 UTC	Down	SELL	91	91¢	$83	0x415b3c…
06-27 16:57:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-27 16:55 UTC	Up	BUY	52	19¢	$10	0xf630fd…
06-27 16:55:50	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-27 17:00 UTC	Down	BUY	91	55¢	$50	0xd406ae…
06-27 16:54:13	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-27 16:45 UTC	Up	SELL	68	82¢	$56	0x834976…
06-27 16:49:10	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-27 16:45 UTC	Up	BUY	68	73¢	$50	0x91ba49…
06-27 16:48:22	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-27 16:45 UTC	Down	SELL	78	43¢	$33	0x876ddf…
06-27 16:47:31	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-27 16:45 UTC	Down	BUY	78	64¢	$50	0xf87392…
06-27 16:46:52	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-27 16:45 UTC	Down	SELL	84	65¢	$54	0x8d0c69…
06-27 16:46:35	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-27 16:45 UTC	Down	BUY	84	60¢	$50	0x75f8c0…
05-22 14:03:48	Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	417	20¢	$81	0x53361c…
05-09 17:08:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	818	24¢	$196	0xfb5a5e…
05-09 17:08:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	181	55¢	$100	0xfbd505…
05-09 17:08:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	185	54¢	$100	0x24764b…
05-09 15:30:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	187	53¢	$100	0x4ac37b…
05-09 15:30:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	193	52¢	$100	0x47b11b…
05-09 15:23:39	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 10AM ET	Down	SELL	171	100¢	$171	0x85e12d…
05-09 15:23:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10AM ET	Down	SELL	176	100¢	$176	0xa1f400…
05-09 14:03:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	171	59¢	$100	0xe8e3c8…
05-09 14:02:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9AM ET	Down	SELL	141	99¢	$140	0xe3d9e6…
05-09 14:01:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 9AM ET	Down	SELL	152	100¢	$151	0x2a2eb6…
05-09 14:01:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	176	57¢	$100	0x47298f…
05-09 13:04:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	152	66¢	$100	0x5ce88e…
05-09 13:03:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	141	52¢	$73	0x5022b7…
05-09 12:41:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	209	48¢	$100	0x7f9404…
05-09 12:41:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	191	52¢	$100	0xece2a9…
05-09 12:37:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	193	52¢	$100	0x98e4f8…
05-09 10:37:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	185	54¢	$100	0x466122…
05-09 10:36:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	175	57¢	$100	0xaacafc…
05-09 09:17:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Down	SELL	190	91¢	$173	0x722c37…
05-09 09:10:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	190	53¢	$100	0x821907…
05-09 09:10:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	194	52¢	$100	0x6a678b…
05-09 02:36:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	196	51¢	$100	0x851cf8…
05-09 02:36:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	157	61¢	$96	0xd21085…
05-08 16:35:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12PM ET	Down	SELL	185	94¢	$174	0x5407cb…
05-08 15:58:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	188	53¢	$100	0xbd7a4d…
05-08 15:58:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	185	54¢	$100	0x9ef7c3…
05-08 15:58:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	181	55¢	$100	0x7d4450…
05-08 15:54:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	SELL	191	85¢	$163	0x6bc28c…
05-08 15:54:15	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	SELL	186	97¢	$180	0xca205b…
05-08 12:30:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	212	47¢	$100	0x7c183f…
05-08 11:40:59	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	191	52¢	$100	0x24261d…
05-08 11:40:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	186	54¢	$100	0x0b6c8b…
05-08 10:58:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	SELL	196	96¢	$188	0x524efe…
05-08 10:34:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	196	51¢	$100	0x738ca6…
05-08 06:59:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	SELL	290	62¢	$178	0x7b5ed1…
05-08 04:23:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	191	52¢	$100	0xfede08…
05-08 04:22:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	191	52¢	$100	0x2b8438…
05-08 04:22:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	290	35¢	$100	0x180c63…
05-07 16:56:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12PM ET	Down	SELL	196	65¢	$128	0x22af6e…
05-07 16:56:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Down	SELL	199	62¢	$123	0x7887f8…
05-07 16:13:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	199	50¢	$100	0xac4663…
05-07 16:13:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	199	50¢	$100	0x8dd3c0…
05-07 16:13:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	213	47¢	$100	0xa21eed…
05-07 15:32:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11AM ET	Down	SELL	147	72¢	$106	0x837ad7…
05-07 15:14:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	SELL	30	63¢	$19	0x97e68c…
05-07 15:01:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	196	51¢	$100	0x4239f4…
05-07 15:01:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	196	51¢	$100	0x5e8c2a…
05-07 15:01:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	147	55¢	$81	0xe8f006…
05-07 14:35:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10AM ET	Down	SELL	196	85¢	$167	0xee2d89…
05-07 14:33:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	SELL	196	77¢	$151	0xbd653f…
05-07 14:21:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	199	50¢	$100	0x2ebcbf…
05-07 14:20:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x242dbb…
05-07 14:17:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	SELL	208	78¢	$162	0x2a75b4…
05-07 14:13:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	196	51¢	$100	0xacbcb6…
05-07 14:13:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	208	48¢	$100	0x8162fa…
05-07 13:50:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	209	48¢	$100	0x58c1ba…
05-07 13:44:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	SELL	182	65¢	$118	0x73645a…
05-07 13:37:17	NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 7?	Down	BUY	175	56¢	$98	0x393d4a…
05-07 13:35:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9AM ET	Down	SELL	167	91¢	$152	0xdc25a0…
05-07 13:06:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	182	55¢	$100	0x570173…
05-07 13:06:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	196	51¢	$100	0xe3f56c…
05-07 13:06:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	167	60¢	$100	0x622d0a…
05-07 11:51:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7AM ET	Down	SELL	194	71¢	$138	0x9e1025…
05-07 11:15:11	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 6AM ET	Down	SELL	187	100¢	$187	0x676c91…
05-07 11:15:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6AM ET	Down	SELL	198	100¢	$198	0x68bf7f…
05-07 09:48:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	182	53¢	$97	0x768e8f…
05-07 09:47:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	187	53¢	$100	0x21c4f1…
05-07 09:46:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	SELL	188	93¢	$175	0xbd7a2d…
05-07 09:46:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	194	51¢	$100	0x8f2f4e…
05-07 09:46:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	198	51¢	$100	0x781ca2…
05-07 04:33:46	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7?	Down	SELL	190	77¢	$146	0x2e5a14…
05-07 00:42:46	Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	187	54¢	$100	0xbcc8e2…
05-07 00:42:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	188	53¢	$100	0xe0da41…
05-07 00:42:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	185	54¢	$100	0x94af79…
05-06 15:58:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	196	51¢	$100	0x3fc8ac…
05-06 15:56:43	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	SELL	200	58¢	$117	0x36ffd0…
05-06 15:30:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	196	51¢	$100	0x07fb76…
05-06 15:30:01	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0xde9e4b…
05-06 15:29:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	204	49¢	$100	0xc654ca…
05-06 15:13:01	Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	211	47¢	$100	0x34d9de…
05-06 15:11:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Down	SELL	206	60¢	$123	0xd16e60…