Probable-Lanai — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$45

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

42.5%

Resolved

157

Trades

1,658

lifetime

Volume

$6.72K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-23

last 05-17 09:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 37% $-45

Other

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 486 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
btc updown 5m 1775505900	2	$475	242	241	+0	open	—	04-06 20:10
btc updown 5m 1775503500	2	$348	177	177	+0	open	—	04-06 19:30
btc updown 5m 1775470200	2	$317	176	174	+2	open	—	04-06 10:15
btc updown 5m 1775469900	2	$236	141	138	+3	open	—	04-06 10:11
btc updown 5m 1775505000	2	$215	147	142	+5	open	—	04-06 19:54
btc updown 5m 1775468700	3	$214	117	110	+7	open	—	04-06 09:50
btc updown 5m 1776469200	2	$202	103	103	+0	open	—	04-17 23:45
btc updown 5m 1775432100	2	$195	103	102	+1	open	—	04-05 23:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	1	$185	191	0	+191	open	—	05-04 19:29
btc updown 5m 1775474100	2	$143	74	74	+0	open	—	04-06 11:20
btc updown 5m 1775472900	2	$142	73	73	+0	open	—	04-06 11:00
btc updown 5m 1775485500	2	$117	60	60	+0	open	—	04-06 14:30
btc updown 5m 1775472600	2	$101	52	52	+0	open	—	04-06 10:55
btc updown 5m 1775481000	2	$93	57	55	+1	open	—	04-06 13:14
btc updown 5m 1775503800	1	$74	80	0	+80	open	—	04-06 19:34
btc updown 5m 1775480700	2	$68	43	42	+1	open	—	04-06 13:09
btc updown 5m 1775474700	2	$62	94	24	+70	open	—	04-06 11:29
btc updown 5m 1775500800	1	$59	74	0	+74	open	—	04-06 18:44
btc updown 5m 1774436400	2	$51	42	41	+0	open	—	03-25 11:05
btc updown 5m 1775481300	2	$51	29	29	+0	open	—	04-06 13:18
btc updown 5m 1775506200	1	$38	68	0	+68	open	—	04-06 20:10
btc updown 5m 1775429400	2	$31	16	16	+0	open	—	04-05 22:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9AM ET	5	$30	29	29	+0	open	—	05-04 12:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	10	$29	46	46	+0	Down	$-1	05-14 00:19
btc updown 5m 1774987800	2	$26	19	19	+1	open	—	03-31 20:11
btc updown 5m 1775475300	1	$24	29	0	+29	open	—	04-06 11:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7AM ET	2	$23	7	19	-12	open	—	05-04 12:17
btc updown 5m 1776468900	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	04-17 23:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	9	$21	27	27	+0	open	—	05-15 15:14
btc updown 5m 1776367800	2	$20	11	11	+0	open	—	04-16 19:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-17 09:21:21	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0xd1679e…
05-17 09:21:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	SELL	5	47¢	$2	0x1811f6…
05-17 09:20:57	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x171bf6…
05-17 09:20:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xfcf5c4…
05-17 09:18:26	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Down	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0x2d24de…
05-17 09:15:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0xee268b…
05-17 09:15:54	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x7b7117…
05-17 09:15:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xc7deb7…
05-17 09:11:09	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	SELL	5	15¢	$1	0xb86dc7…
05-17 09:10:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x6600d8…
05-17 09:06:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0xf7559c…
05-17 09:05:31	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x9d4ec2…
05-17 08:35:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0x4aab77…
05-17 08:35:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0xe01a59…
05-17 08:35:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	56¢	$1	0xb2d112…
05-17 08:35:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0xf69396…
05-17 08:33:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x8067b9…
05-17 08:33:31	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	SELL	2	45¢	$1	0x842746…
05-17 08:30:19	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x896aae…
05-17 08:30:17	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	42¢	$0	0xf1618c…
05-17 08:23:01	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0x08db02…
05-17 08:21:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0x40c33e…
05-17 08:20:32	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x484583…
05-17 08:20:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x286729…
05-17 08:18:14	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0x639860…
05-17 08:17:44	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x4d224d…
05-17 08:16:45	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0x715578…
05-17 08:16:43	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0xc3daa6…
05-17 08:15:38	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xa1a59c…
05-17 08:15:33	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xe76a0b…
05-17 07:37:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	SELL	5	72¢	$4	0xb9ebaa…
05-17 07:37:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x70dfc1…
05-17 06:26:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Up	SELL	5	31¢	$2	0x5fd41a…
05-17 06:26:23	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Up	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0xae3746…
05-17 06:26:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	45¢	$1	0xf828c9…
05-17 06:26:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xea833a…
05-17 06:25:46	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x8210df…
05-17 05:22:15	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	SELL	5	83¢	$4	0xc6324d…
05-17 05:15:36	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x3340fe…
05-17 05:13:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0xa371bd…
05-17 05:12:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xe99786…
05-17 05:12:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xdb76e2…
05-17 05:08:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0x74b1c9…
05-17 05:07:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xdcda75…
05-17 04:50:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0x1309e8…
05-17 04:50:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x5f4ed6…
05-17 04:50:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	53¢	$2	0x38decc…
05-17 04:50:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0x7d790d…
05-17 04:47:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Down	SELL	5	57¢	$3	0x38d789…
05-17 04:47:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0x1997b8…
05-17 04:47:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x527cc9…
05-17 04:46:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Down	SELL	5	36¢	$2	0xed9133…
05-17 04:45:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Down	SELL	5	53¢	$3	0xe1462a…
05-17 04:45:49	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x23343b…
05-17 04:45:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	40¢	$1	0x336ef3…
05-17 04:45:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Down	BUY	4	40¢	$1	0x19f4bc…
05-17 04:41:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0xc96593…
05-17 04:41:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xad92b6…
05-17 04:41:35	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	SELL	5	36¢	$2	0xd36ab6…
05-17 04:40:25	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x6a6b1b…
05-17 04:26:06	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x4abf23…
05-17 04:25:57	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0xd80c43…
05-17 04:25:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	SELL	5	33¢	$2	0x51c438…
05-17 04:25:38	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x0a4c96…
05-17 04:25:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x50dfba…
05-17 04:25:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x701440…
05-17 04:21:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Down	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0x2dd989…
05-17 04:21:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	SELL	5	54¢	$3	0xadee5f…
05-17 04:21:33	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0xaaa32e…
05-17 04:20:18	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xcb17a9…
05-17 04:20:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x80a1c6…
05-17 04:19:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	0	31¢	$0	0xb961b6…
05-17 04:19:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$1	0x0b5c7c…
05-17 04:19:09	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Down	SELL	2	31¢	$1	0x899d92…
05-17 04:16:23	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	SELL	5	25¢	$1	0xf87fbe…
05-17 04:15:48	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xe2081c…
05-17 04:15:22	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x3ccdb3…
05-17 04:12:09	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Down	SELL	5	68¢	$4	0xfa4884…
05-17 04:10:42	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x4f11e9…
05-17 04:06:09	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	SELL	5	31¢	$2	0xa4f975…
05-17 04:05:41	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xbb017f…
05-17 03:53:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Down	SELL	5	54¢	$3	0x4c9223…
05-17 03:51:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xbd9cae…
05-17 03:51:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Down	SELL	5	42¢	$2	0x0842c7…
05-17 03:51:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x9f91e7…
05-17 03:46:52	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Down	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0xa1e243…
05-17 03:46:12	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0xfb314c…
05-17 03:45:40	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xb90d79…
05-17 03:45:35	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0xb39f7b…
05-17 03:45:35	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	SELL	1	39¢	$0	0x46b269…
05-17 03:45:21	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	45¢	$0	0xa7a845…
05-17 03:42:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	SELL	0	65¢	$0	0xc93b8d…
05-17 03:42:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	SELL	5	67¢	$3	0x1d31ff…
05-17 03:41:48	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0x855473…
05-17 03:41:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xb944f4…
05-17 03:41:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0x22bc9f…
05-17 03:41:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x3f6b57…
05-17 03:41:02	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xf08fc7…
05-17 03:36:26	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0x9105f3…
05-17 03:36:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0xe17b8c…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0x89b5…8beb	589	$193.1K	15,435	05-17 09:26
(anonymous) 0x20d2…e29d	572	$66.5K	5,796	05-17 09:24
(anonymous) 0x75cc…3ce1	571	$50.2K	6,756	05-17 09:24
(anonymous) 0x5d4a…55d3	531	$22.4K	4,057	05-17 09:29
All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6	474	$273.0K	10,124	05-17 09:26
Crushing-Fugato 0xe386…4d91	453	$18.4K	4,449	05-17 09:20
(anonymous) 0x6cf4…e1fa	453	$659	2,433	05-17 09:29
(anonymous) 0x424e…263b	440	$88.9K	15,416	05-17 09:23