Variable-Illness — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.59K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

52.3%

Resolved

904

Trades

5,070

lifetime

Volume

$21.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-18

last 11-02 00:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 113 days

Categories

Other

56% 33% -$694

Crypto

16% 36% -$414

Politics

14% 32% -$260

Sports

13% 40% -$225

Tech

0% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 285 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will mara corina machado attend the 2026 state of the union address	34	$1.1K	653	658	-6	No	+$63	02-25 04:09
will mrbeasts next video get between 32 and 34 million views on day 3	63	$544	333	333	+0	Yes	-$16	02-24 04:05
us strikes iran by february 21 2026	42	$509	265	255	+10	No	+$0	02-22 02:23
Braga: Mackenzie McDonald vs Ryan Nijboer	49	$369	609	549	+60	Ryan Nijboer	-$14	10-07 19:35
Antofagasta: Nick Hardt vs Felipe Meligeni Alves	36	$365	1,527	1,149	+378	Felipe Meligeni Alves	-$74	10-07 21:12
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	90	$335	1,093	1,093	+0	Yes	-$238	03-01 01:36
Panthers vs. Browns	74	$303	548	493	+55	Browns	+$75	09-27 20:25
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	23	$303	238	238	+0	No	$0	02-21 01:57
will axiom be accused of insider trading	30	$255	193	193	+0	Yes	+$6	02-26 12:51
Lakers vs. Rockets	53	$252	277	246	+31	Lakers	+$24	04-25 02:52
Will Republic of Ireland vs. Austria end in a draw?	23	$245	218	218	+0	Yes	+$108	10-01 20:40
trump declassifies new ufo files by march 31	38	$239	232	235	-3	No	+$22	02-22 07:23
will bernie sanders applaud during trumps state of the union	31	$231	146	157	-11	No	+$22	02-26 13:51
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-26 20:00 UTC	20	$226	1,248	58	+1,189	Up	-$183	08-26 23:26
Will FC Schalke 04 vs. SV 07 Elversberg end in a draw?	23	$218	209	209	+0	Yes	+$90	09-20 17:21
atp schwaer ivashka 2026 08 07	23	$216	341	341	+0	Joel Schwaerzler	+$49	08-07 14:21
Ravens vs. Cowboys	36	$189	216	201	+15	Ravens	+$48	09-27 21:16
new 10 us blanket tariff goes into effect by february 28	25	$186	139	139	+0	Yes	-$20	02-21 01:48
Will Azerbaijan vs. Liechtenstein end in a draw?	12	$175	187	187	+0	Yes	+$125	10-01 17:52
Will SC Internacional vs. SC Corinthians Paulista end in a draw?	4	$174	602	102	+500	No	-$126	10-07 23:12
Oilers vs. Ducks	23	$174	296	289	+7	Ducks	+$53	04-27 04:05
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in October?	6	$173	1,667	1,667	+0	No	-$27	10-07 22:40
Will Slovakia vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw?	29	$168	584	534	+50	No	+$28	09-29 19:34
mwoh can fin 2026 02 20	8	$165	111	111	+0	Canada	+$39	02-20 18:09
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-09-29?	37	$161	2,458	2,143	+315	No	+$29	09-29 20:02
Hangzhou Open: Yunchaokete Bu vs Kamil Majchrzak	41	$157	290	198	+92	Yunchaokete Bu	-$4	09-26 10:46
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 9 2026	82	$156	241	241	+0	Yes	-$16	03-08 21:12
us strikes iran by february 22 2026	20	$155	85	75	+10	No	+$0	02-22 06:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-26 22:55 UTC	3	$148	111	111	+0	Up	+$68	08-26 22:58
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	45	$148	173	173	+0	Yes	+$3	03-05 18:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 00:39:10	Eagles vs. Commanders	Eagles	BUY	55	31¢	$17	0xa65468…
11-02 00:37:54	Chiefs vs. Broncos	Chiefs	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x25a23e…
11-02 00:37:12	Chiefs vs. Broncos	Broncos	SELL	13	98¢	$12	0x2e459a…
11-02 00:34:09	Chiefs vs. Broncos	Broncos	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xcb7d24…
11-02 00:33:10	Chiefs vs. Broncos	Broncos	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x09580e…
11-02 00:32:43	Chiefs vs. Broncos	Broncos	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xd4f4a7…
10-11 19:39:31	Vikings vs. Saints	Saints	SELL	4	2¢	$0	0xc6d858…
10-11 19:39:25	Giants vs. Commanders	Giants	SELL	6	4¢	$0	0x28f210…
10-11 19:39:10	Bengals vs. Dolphins	Dolphins	BUY	111	2¢	$2	0xd66ff4…
10-11 19:38:52	Kirk Cousins: Passing Yards O/U 249.5	Over	SELL	7	30¢	$2	0x9e860d…
10-11 19:30:07	Giants vs. Commanders	Giants	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x13ac98…
10-11 19:28:49	Kirk Cousins: Passing Yards O/U 274.5	Over	SELL	9	17¢	$1	0xcb53fa…
10-11 19:21:19	Raiders vs. Patriots	Raiders	BUY	377	1¢	$3	0x76d269…
10-11 19:21:12	Raiders vs. Patriots	Raiders	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0xccf8ab…
10-11 19:20:51	Raiders vs. Patriots	Raiders	BUY	568	1¢	$5	0x14a11b…
10-11 19:20:40	Raiders vs. Patriots	Raiders	BUY	1,222	1¢	$10	0x711dec…
10-11 19:20:34	Raiders vs. Patriots	Raiders	BUY	1,429	1¢	$10	0x733008…
10-11 19:16:58	Kirk Cousins: Passing Yards O/U 249.5	Over	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x090c97…
10-11 19:15:55	Giants vs. Commanders	Giants	SELL	50	13¢	$6	0x8fa24d…
10-11 19:15:12	Bengals vs. Dolphins	Dolphins	SELL	23	4¢	$1	0xc769bd…
10-11 19:11:27	Bengals vs. Dolphins	Dolphins	BUY	124	4¢	$5	0x64e8a1…
10-11 19:10:27	Bengals vs. Dolphins	Dolphins	BUY	143	7¢	$10	0x658d89…
10-11 19:10:09	Bengals vs. Dolphins	Dolphins	BUY	156	6¢	$10	0xb336e0…
10-11 19:09:30	Vikings vs. Saints	Saints	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x3c51c2…
10-11 19:09:12	Raiders vs. Patriots	Raiders	SELL	400	3¢	$11	0x8d7ce7…
10-11 19:03:04	Raiders vs. Patriots	Raiders	BUY	51	4¢	$2	0xa8ab90…
10-11 19:02:54	Raiders vs. Patriots	Raiders	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0x6a1287…
10-11 18:56:34	Texans vs. Titans	Titans	SELL	125	2¢	$2	0x6613bf…
10-11 18:56:00	Raiders vs. Patriots	Raiders	BUY	179	3¢	$5	0xd1ba1b…
10-11 18:54:21	Kirk Cousins: Passing Yards O/U 274.5	Over	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xd79cdd…
10-11 18:53:36	Raiders vs. Patriots	Raiders	BUY	336	3¢	$10	0x42477f…
10-11 18:50:19	Giants vs. Commanders	Giants	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0xb35f3e…
10-11 18:50:09	Texans vs. Titans	Titans	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0x3d0551…
10-11 18:49:28	Raiders vs. Patriots	Raiders	BUY	154	4¢	$6	0x7d91a6…
10-11 18:49:16	Raiders vs. Patriots	Raiders	BUY	252	4¢	$10	0x4dfa6c…
10-08 06:28:52	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Hubert Hurkacz vs James Duckworth	James Duckworth	BUY	417	13¢	$54	0x31b7e6…
10-07 23:20:38	Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-10-07?	Yes	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0xcc2b66…
10-07 23:20:11	Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-10-07?	Yes	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0xb93e3f…
10-07 23:14:31	SC Internacional vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	7	57¢	$4	0xb2b203…
10-07 23:12:43	Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-10-07?	Yes	SELL	29	10¢	$3	0x3f1ff5…
10-07 23:12:19	Will SC Internacional vs. SC Corinthians Paulista end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	102	24¢	$24	0x36624e…
10-07 22:53:58	Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-10-07?	Yes	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0xa6a3e1…
10-07 22:53:43	Will SC Internacional vs. SC Corinthians Paulista end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x4e5749…
10-07 22:53:29	Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-10-07?	Yes	BUY	239	13¢	$30	0x82a801…
10-07 22:53:20	Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-10-07?	Yes	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0xd53b33…
10-07 22:52:56	SC Internacional vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xfa79df…
10-07 22:51:19	Will SC Internacional vs. SC Corinthians Paulista end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	400	25¢	$100	0xca9722…
10-07 22:51:08	Will SC Internacional vs. SC Corinthians Paulista end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	160	25¢	$40	0x62ef1b…
10-07 22:50:55	Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-10-07?	Yes	BUY	86	14¢	$12	0xa3c470…
10-07 22:50:26	Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-10-07?	Yes	BUY	44	15¢	$7	0x27ef89…
10-07 22:48:16	Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0x480015…
10-07 22:48:08	Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0x2c27b5…
10-07 22:47:59	Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x5a9852…
10-07 22:42:01	Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in October?	Yes	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0xcd0cbd…
10-07 22:41:55	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?	Yes	SELL	6	77¢	$5	0xf4e58f…
10-07 22:41:50	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in October?	Yes	SELL	500	1¢	$7	0x0c759c…
10-07 22:41:46	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in October?	Yes	SELL	500	2¢	$9	0x45a204…
10-07 22:41:40	Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in October?	Yes	SELL	125	7¢	$9	0x7f156c…
10-07 22:41:35	Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in October?	Yes	SELL	158	6¢	$10	0xc4e5b9…
10-07 22:41:29	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in October?	Yes	SELL	71	13¢	$9	0x4781ca…
10-07 22:41:25	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?	Yes	SELL	294	3¢	$10	0xa9cb38…
10-07 22:41:19	Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in October?	Yes	SELL	46	24¢	$11	0xd83a91…
10-07 22:41:16	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in October?	Yes	SELL	86	13¢	$11	0xcaa251…
10-07 22:41:10	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?	Yes	SELL	32	36¢	$11	0x051421…
10-07 22:41:04	Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?	Yes	SELL	25	53¢	$13	0xc0bfb0…
10-07 22:40:59	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October?	Yes	SELL	150	9¢	$14	0xa74ae6…
10-07 22:40:55	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in October?	Yes	SELL	700	2¢	$15	0x704ca5…
10-07 22:40:50	Will Bitcoin reach $102,500 in October?	Yes	SELL	600	3¢	$19	0xbb471d…
10-07 22:40:44	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in October?	Yes	SELL	400	4¢	$16	0x3bfcf2…
10-07 22:40:37	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Yes	SELL	123	25¢	$31	0x1e06b4…
10-07 22:40:32	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	Yes	SELL	115	40¢	$46	0x6824da…
10-07 22:40:26	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October?	Yes	SELL	80	63¢	$50	0xdb201a…
10-07 22:33:14	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x89a41b…
10-07 22:32:55	Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xb23fe3…
10-07 22:32:47	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x150c61…
10-07 22:32:25	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in October?	Yes	SELL	300	4¢	$12	0x11af02…
10-07 22:32:01	Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0xf85f3d…
10-07 22:31:20	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in October?	Yes	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0xf65660…
10-07 22:30:49	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	11	64¢	$7	0xb83607…
10-07 22:30:14	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in October?	Yes	SELL	200	4¢	$8	0x2c5be9…
10-07 22:27:34	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x6993f3…
10-07 22:27:28	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x58a38a…
10-07 22:27:20	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0xaef236…
10-07 22:27:11	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0x981567…
10-07 22:27:02	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xc823a0…
10-07 22:26:22	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in October?	Yes	SELL	300	2¢	$6	0xfd7fd3…
10-07 22:26:06	Will Bitcoin reach $102,500 in October?	Yes	SELL	200	3¢	$6	0xae3ea7…
10-07 22:25:18	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x80849a…
10-07 22:24:36	Will Bitcoin reach $102,500 in October?	Yes	SELL	200	3¢	$6	0xe7702a…
10-07 21:55:51	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	4	79¢	$3	0xe403bd…
10-07 21:55:31	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in October?	Yes	SELL	24	2¢	$0	0x3d68d5…
10-07 21:55:21	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in October?	Yes	SELL	163	1¢	$2	0x42795e…
10-07 21:54:12	Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x51d386…
10-07 21:54:06	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x9b94b4…
10-07 21:53:48	Will Bitcoin reach $102,500 in October?	Yes	SELL	144	3¢	$5	0xf5d06c…
10-07 21:53:24	Will Bitcoin reach $102,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	641	3¢	$22	0xc0e78b…
10-07 21:51:58	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October?	Yes	SELL	13,375	0¢	$25	0x3bebdf…
10-07 21:49:04	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x18eb3f…
10-07 21:48:13	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xcade6d…
10-07 21:48:07	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	77	26¢	$20	0xb80111…