Variable-Illness — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$28

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

56.0%

Resolved

Trades

3,032

lifetime

Volume

$10.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-18

last 06-04 11:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Other

46% 31% $-7

Politics

28% 0% $-0

Sports

16% 23% $-38

Crypto

10% 50% +$17

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 311 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will mara corina machado attend the 2026 state of the union address	34	$1.1K	653	658	-6	open	—	02-25 04:09
will mrbeasts next video get between 32 and 34 million views on day 3	63	$544	333	333	+0	open	—	02-24 04:05
us strikes iran by february 21 2026	42	$509	265	255	+10	open	—	02-22 02:23
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	90	$335	1,093	1,093	+0	open	—	03-01 01:36
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	23	$303	238	238	+0	open	—	02-21 01:57
will axiom be accused of insider trading	30	$255	193	193	+0	open	—	02-26 12:51
Lakers vs. Rockets	53	$252	277	246	+31	open	—	04-25 02:52
trump declassifies new ufo files by march 31	38	$239	232	235	-3	open	—	02-22 07:23
will bernie sanders applaud during trumps state of the union	31	$231	146	157	-11	open	—	02-26 13:51
new 10 us blanket tariff goes into effect by february 28	25	$186	139	139	+0	open	—	02-21 01:48
Oilers vs. Ducks	23	$174	296	289	+7	open	—	04-27 04:05
mwoh can fin 2026 02 20	8	$165	111	111	+0	open	—	02-20 18:09
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 9 2026	82	$156	241	241	+0	open	—	03-08 21:12
us strikes iran by february 22 2026	20	$155	85	75	+10	open	—	02-22 06:53
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	45	$148	173	173	+0	open	—	03-05 18:21
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	68	$146	324	324	+0	open	—	03-01 01:45
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	82	$145	115	149	-34	open	—	03-05 17:41
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	13	$144	75	75	+0	open	—	02-23 17:59
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves	13	$140	173	169	+4	open	—	04-26 03:08
Celtics vs. 76ers	14	$134	211	107	+104	open	—	04-25 01:43
Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Terence Atmane	60	$127	239	233	+5	open	—	05-25 15:43
nyse trading floor opening delayed monday	13	$108	106	106	+0	open	—	02-23 14:25
will mrbeasts latest video get 2022 million views on day 1 835 752	29	$96	174	174	+0	open	—	02-22 10:27
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 8 2026	63	$93	222	222	+0	open	—	03-08 17:47
Penguins vs. Flyers	17	$91	618	163	+455	open	—	04-26 02:55
will mrbeasts next video get between 34 and 36 million views on day 3	27	$90	270	218	+52	open	—	02-24 04:41
World Championships: Czechia vs. Canada	22	$90	92	101	-10	open	—	05-26 20:36
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland	17	$82	132	147	-15	open	—	05-26 19:42
will the 2026 state of the union address last 100 minutes or longer	8	$73	129	129	+0	open	—	02-25 03:42
prince andrew mugshot released by february 28	7	$72	38	38	+0	open	—	02-21 23:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-04 11:20:31	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x567c39…
06-04 11:20:06	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x4899a9…
06-04 11:20:00	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x95b64b…
06-04 11:19:55	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x03c775…
06-04 11:19:51	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x58828a…
06-04 11:08:33	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	25	41¢	$10	0x8de518…
06-04 11:07:10	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x803731…
06-04 11:06:57	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x2da8b0…
06-04 11:03:43	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xa9e103…
06-04 11:03:40	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xe7ecf1…
06-04 11:03:25	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x18b19c…
06-04 11:02:57	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x5cb0f6…
06-04 11:01:16	btc updown 5m 1780570800	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xd4d386…
06-04 11:01:07	btc updown 5m 1780570800	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x9bbe20…
06-04 11:01:07	btc updown 5m 1780570800	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x918589…
06-04 11:01:07	btc updown 5m 1780570800	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x7aed97…
06-04 11:01:06	btc updown 5m 1780570800	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x5b3ba1…
06-04 11:01:01	btc updown 5m 1780570800	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x9dc988…
06-04 10:59:01	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 7am et	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xfdb91d…
06-04 10:57:25	btc updown 15m 1780569900	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xcefd3e…
06-04 10:54:54	btc updown 5m 1780570200	Down	SELL	47	99¢	$47	0x6401b3…
06-04 10:53:45	btc updown 5m 1780570200	Down	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0xd4bce7…
06-04 10:53:31	btc updown 5m 1780570200	Down	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xca8fa7…
06-04 10:51:22	btc updown 5m 1780570200	Down	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x3aec9c…
06-04 10:48:33	btc updown 15m 1780569900	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xdae437…
06-04 10:48:24	btc updown 15m 1780569900	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x8552e6…
06-04 10:48:18	btc updown 15m 1780569900	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xfcd9bd…
06-04 10:47:24	btc updown 15m 1780569900	Down	SELL	12	83¢	$10	0xb9222a…
06-04 10:45:40	btc updown 15m 1780569900	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xfd78b4…
06-04 10:45:34	btc updown 15m 1780569900	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xe4410d…
06-04 10:45:33	btc updown 15m 1780569900	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xe5637d…
06-04 10:45:33	btc updown 15m 1780569900	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xcc80ad…
06-04 10:45:30	btc updown 15m 1780569900	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xd34f51…
06-04 10:45:22	btc updown 15m 1780569900	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xb1eb56…
06-04 10:43:16	btc updown 15m 1780569000	Down	SELL	94	19¢	$18	0x111584…
06-04 10:41:46	btc updown 15m 1780569000	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x061da1…
06-04 10:34:52	btc updown 15m 1780569000	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x063d54…
06-04 10:34:51	btc updown 15m 1780569000	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xd21483…
06-04 10:34:51	btc updown 15m 1780569000	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x7a4233…
06-04 10:34:42	btc updown 15m 1780569000	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x1abd7a…
06-04 10:34:33	btc updown 15m 1780569000	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x639f7b…
06-04 10:34:33	btc updown 15m 1780569000	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x28bbb4…
06-04 10:34:30	btc updown 15m 1780569000	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xf9ce62…
06-04 10:34:22	btc updown 15m 1780569000	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xbcd99e…
06-04 10:34:21	btc updown 15m 1780569000	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x26a015…
06-04 10:34:19	btc updown 15m 1780569000	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x0c3469…
06-04 10:33:46	btc updown 5m 1780569000	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xb194d4…
06-04 10:33:00	btc updown 5m 1780569000	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x946984…
06-04 10:32:57	btc updown 5m 1780569000	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x43db1b…
06-04 10:31:58	btc updown 15m 1780569000	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xec5ba5…
06-04 10:31:46	btc updown 15m 1780569000	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x5ddc74…
06-04 10:31:43	btc updown 15m 1780569000	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x86bdd8…
06-04 10:31:36	btc updown 15m 1780569000	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x755fe5…
06-04 10:31:33	btc updown 15m 1780569000	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xdcbd36…
06-04 10:29:57	btc updown 5m 1780569000	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xa2af0f…
06-04 10:29:57	btc updown 5m 1780569000	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x47f945…
06-04 10:29:55	btc updown 5m 1780569000	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xe3ebaf…
06-04 10:29:55	btc updown 5m 1780569000	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x8c0f52…
06-04 10:29:55	btc updown 5m 1780569000	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x7ecc64…
06-04 10:29:21	btc updown 15m 1780569000	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x222ae0…
06-04 10:29:19	btc updown 15m 1780569000	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x36f081…
06-04 10:29:18	btc updown 15m 1780569000	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x3d280b…
06-04 10:29:16	btc updown 15m 1780569000	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x429bac…
06-04 10:29:13	btc updown 15m 1780569000	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x2698d3…
06-04 10:28:58	btc updown 15m 1780569000	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x81deb9…
06-04 10:28:58	btc updown 15m 1780569000	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x660a29…
06-04 10:28:57	btc updown 15m 1780569000	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xa6ac95…
06-04 10:28:54	btc updown 15m 1780569000	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x6fa06f…
06-04 10:28:54	btc updown 15m 1780569000	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x24b507…
06-04 10:24:55	btc updown 15m 1780568100	Down	SELL	22	79¢	$18	0xec45da…
06-04 10:23:25	btc updown 15m 1780568100	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x44bf96…
06-04 10:23:15	btc updown 15m 1780568100	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xbf8911…
06-04 10:21:19	btc updown 15m 1780568100	Up	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0xa05149…
06-04 10:20:25	btc updown 15m 1780568100	Up	SELL	7	58¢	$4	0x5890a6…
06-04 10:19:46	btc updown 15m 1780568100	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x87bfb2…
06-04 10:19:21	btc updown 15m 1780568100	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x329876…
06-04 10:18:55	btc updown 15m 1780568100	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x48583f…
06-04 10:18:27	btc updown 15m 1780568100	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xa592cd…
06-04 10:18:24	btc updown 15m 1780568100	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xb45a3b…
06-04 10:18:19	btc updown 15m 1780568100	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xe61a06…
06-04 10:18:09	btc updown 15m 1780568100	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x722b0f…
06-04 10:17:55	btc updown 15m 1780568100	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x5c1ae6…
06-04 10:17:51	btc updown 15m 1780568100	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xbaf04c…
06-04 10:17:40	btc updown 15m 1780568100	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xe0d5a8…
06-04 10:17:37	btc updown 15m 1780568100	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x96e22f…
06-04 10:17:16	btc updown 15m 1780568100	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x868afd…
06-04 10:12:15	btc updown 5m 1780567800	Up	SELL	3	26¢	$1	0x1ef6cb…
06-04 10:12:04	btc updown 5m 1780567800	Down	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0x68cb2b…
06-04 10:11:42	btc updown 5m 1780567800	Down	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0xe4866d…
06-04 10:11:15	btc updown 5m 1780567800	Up	SELL	2	22¢	$0	0x2263c8…
06-04 10:10:40	btc updown 5m 1780567800	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x46b187…
06-04 10:10:28	btc updown 5m 1780567800	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x5236a8…
06-04 10:09:48	btc updown 5m 1780567800	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x63a10c…
06-04 10:09:34	btc updown 5m 1780567800	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x5f7ff6…
06-04 10:09:33	btc updown 5m 1780567800	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xe561cf…
06-04 10:08:28	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 6am et	Down	SELL	4	76¢	$3	0x4b3e49…
06-04 10:06:58	btc updown 5m 1780567500	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x52a4c2…
06-04 10:05:34	btc updown 15m 1780567200	Up	SELL	2	12¢	$0	0xc7f092…
06-04 10:05:07	btc updown 5m 1780567500	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x3043eb…
06-04 10:05:01	btc updown 5m 1780567500	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xcbca2e…