Disguised-Spider — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$517

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.2%

Resolved

Trades

4,933

lifetime

Volume

$376.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$76

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-15 16:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

66% 0% $-69

Other

28% 100% +$586

Crypto

3% — —

Sports

2% — —

Tech

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 129 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	124	$10.8K	16,702	3,384	+13,318	open	—	03-07 20:03
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	78	$9.9K	11,004	8,989	+2,015	open	—	01-27 21:13
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	129	$8.1K	14,713	14,017	+696	open	—	01-30 00:15
will the us collect less than 100b in revenue in 2025	84	$7.7K	12,378	3,840	+8,537	open	—	01-29 06:13
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	61	$6.9K	9,630	5,235	+4,396	open	—	02-18 12:02
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$6.8K	7,000	0	+7,000	No	+$212	03-05 17:18
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	115	$6.1K	14,461	1,500	+12,961	open	—	03-09 21:04
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	69	$6.1K	11,194	0	+11,194	open	—	03-07 19:41
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	19	$6.0K	3,555	3,565	-10	open	—	01-16 09:46
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	18	$5.8K	6,085	5,942	+143	open	—	02-24 22:51
will israel or the us target tehran	55	$5.7K	4,124	3,623	+502	open	—	01-29 12:52
iran strike on us military by february 28	27	$5.7K	5,748	1,620	+4,128	open	—	02-28 06:30
iran strike on us military by january 31	19	$4.8K	2,903	2,903	+0	open	—	01-27 02:23
us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	42	$4.8K	3,032	2,979	+53	open	—	01-15 17:32
will the supreme court rule on trumps tarriffs by january 31	19	$4.3K	2,956	2,956	+0	open	—	01-31 08:00
US strikes Iran or Trump announces Fed nominee first?	18	$3.8K	2,106	2,094	+13	open	—	01-30 14:06
Insurrection Act invoked by March 31?	20	$3.5K	5,162	2,156	+3,006	open	—	03-12 18:26
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	7	$3.5K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	01-21 16:07
US civil war before 2027?	12	$2.9K	1,843	1,450	+394	open	—	02-04 19:40
will the supreme court rule on trumps tarriffs by february 20	19	$2.9K	1,961	1,673	+288	open	—	02-19 17:50
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	15	$2.7K	2,867	2,867	+0	open	—	02-28 20:47
Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30?	9	$2.6K	7,673	2,323	+5,350	open	—	02-22 12:36
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	24	$2.4K	2,580	548	+2,032	open	—	01-26 20:44
will the us not strike iran by january 31 2026 314	2	$2.3K	1,338	1,338	+0	open	—	01-27 20:46
moltbook shutdown by feb 28	5	$2.2K	1,184	1,184	+0	open	—	02-19 20:59
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	9	$2.1K	3,082	3,082	+0	open	—	01-18 23:15
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	16	$2.1K	5,555	3,463	+2,092	open	—	03-08 17:03
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	7	$2.1K	2,520	2,520	+0	open	—	01-18 18:44
Moonbirds FDV above $100M one day after launch?	4	$2.0K	1,060	1,060	+0	open	—	01-29 17:46
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	7	$1.9K	2,083	0	+2,083	open	—	02-27 15:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-15 16:08:54	will trump say barack hussein obama during meeting with french president 20260615070515596	No	BUY	500	50¢	$250	0x275a7f…
06-15 15:54:19	will trump say ai or artificial intelligence during meeting with french president 20260615070515600	No	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0xe39de4…
06-15 15:50:49	will trump say ai or artificial intelligence during meeting with french president 20260615070515600	No	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x8a19e7…
06-15 14:32:31	fifwc esp cvi 2026 06 15 btts	No	BUY	156	64¢	$100	0x476893…
05-28 09:09:13	Will Vance say "Fake News" during Air Force Academy Address?	No	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x0eed0f…
05-28 05:47:40	Will Vance say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Air Force Academy Address?	No	BUY	66	70¢	$46	0x94f5bf…
05-28 05:47:38	Will Vance say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Air Force Academy Address?	No	BUY	80	70¢	$56	0xb786bf…
05-28 05:47:33	Will Vance say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Air Force Academy Address?	No	BUY	4	70¢	$3	0x2fdaa0…
05-28 05:46:11	Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week?	No	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0x8c4ad9…
05-28 05:46:06	Will Trump say "NATO" this week?	No	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x65def4…
05-28 05:44:17	Will Vance say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Air Force Academy Address?	No	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0x605a38…
05-28 05:43:40	Will Vance say "Nuclear" during Air Force Academy Address?	No	BUY	500	48¢	$242	0xe4a311…
05-28 05:43:19	Will Vance say "Epic Fury" during Air Force Academy Address?	No	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0x1297b6…
05-28 05:43:12	Will Vance say "Long Blue Line" during Air Force Academy Address?	No	BUY	126	70¢	$88	0x8cbcc9…
05-01 20:42:28	Will Trump say "Stock market" or "401(k)" at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	BUY	21	86¢	$18	0xb320bf…
05-01 20:42:18	Will Trump say "Stock market" or "401(k)" at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x397f1b…
05-01 20:41:10	Will Trump say "Stock market" or "401(k)" at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	BUY	172	86¢	$148	0x0ddd6e…
05-01 20:14:04	Will Trump say "Tax" 15+ times at The Villages on May 1?	No	BUY	859	26¢	$223	0x19e4a7…
05-01 20:14:02	Will Trump say "Tax" 15+ times at The Villages on May 1?	No	BUY	134	26¢	$35	0xef12ac…
05-01 20:14:02	Will Trump say "Tax" 15+ times at The Villages on May 1?	No	BUY	7	26¢	$2	0xed29f9…
05-01 20:12:38	Will Trump say "Beautiful Bill" at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	BUY	13	87¢	$12	0x77318d…
05-01 20:10:22	Will Trump say "Beautiful Bill" at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	BUY	76	87¢	$66	0x0be140…
05-01 20:10:12	Will Trump say "Beautiful Bill" at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	BUY	911	87¢	$792	0x71dca2…
05-01 18:51:16	Will Trump say "Lunatic" this week? (April 27 - May 3)	Yes	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0x7a70bc…
05-01 18:51:12	Will Trump say "Radical Left" this week? (April 27 - May 3)	Yes	BUY	26	76¢	$20	0x052ae8…
05-01 18:51:02	Will Trump say "TrumpRX" this week? (April 27 - May 3)	Yes	BUY	165	60¢	$99	0xa2208c…
05-01 18:48:40	Will Trump say "Ballroom" at The Villages on May 1?	No	BUY	400	60¢	$240	0xe9bd96…
05-01 16:34:26	Will Trump say "Transgender" at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	BUY	3	54¢	$2	0xf4b461…
05-01 16:34:02	Will Trump say "Transgender" at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0xb93d1e…
05-01 16:23:28	Will Trump say "Transgender" at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	BUY	36	54¢	$20	0x44bf26…
04-29 18:39:00	Will Powell say "Successor" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	300	61¢	$183	0x2552a7…
04-29 18:23:16	Will Powell say "Job" 15+ times during April press conference?	No	BUY	17	40¢	$7	0x40ae65…
04-29 18:22:54	Will Powell say "Job" 15+ times during April press conference?	No	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0x55d7be…
04-29 18:12:26	Will Powell say "Job" 15+ times during April press conference?	No	BUY	185	40¢	$74	0xfb4396…
04-29 18:03:42	Will Powell say "Pandemic" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	237	74¢	$176	0x8bba5b…
04-29 17:58:06	Will Powell say "Middle East" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	279	84¢	$234	0x0f7ba2…
04-29 17:45:12	Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during April press conference?	No	BUY	86	24¢	$21	0x89f9e2…
04-29 17:41:52	Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x05eef1…
04-29 17:36:56	Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	599	83¢	$497	0x318582…
04-29 17:34:26	Will Powell say "Pandemic" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	9	74¢	$7	0xafe8fd…
04-29 17:34:08	Will Powell say "Pandemic" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	9	74¢	$7	0x3c6603…
04-29 17:33:40	Will Powell say "Pandemic" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0x8f9db6…
04-29 17:33:04	Will Powell say "Pandemic" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0x034e58…
04-29 17:32:22	Will Powell say "Pandemic" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0x323355…
04-29 17:29:00	Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during April press conference?	No	BUY	1	24¢	$0	0xee8a68…
04-29 17:27:48	Will Powell say "Pandemic" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	12	74¢	$9	0x81914a…
04-29 17:24:22	Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference?	No	BUY	879	2¢	$22	0x146ee6…
04-29 17:24:10	Will Powell say "Middle East" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	21	84¢	$18	0xf767f0…
04-29 17:24:02	Will Powell say "Pandemic" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0xa659c2…
04-29 17:23:28	Will Powell say "Job" 15+ times during April press conference?	No	BUY	200	40¢	$80	0xe0d04b…
04-29 17:23:20	Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during April press conference?	No	BUY	313	24¢	$75	0x775772…
04-28 10:02:54	Will Trump say "Radical Left" this week? (April 27 - May 3)	Yes	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xb066c6…
04-28 09:58:12	Will Trump say "Radical Left" this week? (April 27 - May 3)	Yes	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x0b79ab…
04-28 07:53:30	Will Trump say "Radical Left" this week? (April 27 - May 3)	Yes	BUY	195	75¢	$146	0x7516f3…
04-28 04:46:14	Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" this week? (April 27 - May 3)	No	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xf1ecb7…
04-27 18:03:18	Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" this week? (April 27 - May 3)	No	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x3b99fc…
04-27 17:22:18	Will Leavitt say "President" 66+ times during the next White House press briefing?	No	BUY	47	54¢	$25	0x97cf72…
04-27 17:22:06	Will Leavitt say "President" 66+ times during the next White House press briefing?	No	BUY	30	54¢	$16	0x79bce0…
04-27 17:21:46	Will Leavitt say "President" 66+ times during the next White House press briefing?	No	BUY	109	54¢	$59	0x9b34b3…
04-27 17:21:40	Will Leavitt say "President" 66+ times during the next White House press briefing?	No	BUY	204	54¢	$110	0xd4ac6a…
04-27 17:21:30	Will Leavitt say "President" 66+ times during the next White House press briefing?	No	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x39e668…
04-27 17:16:10	Will Leavitt say "Democrat" 5+ times during the next White House press briefing?	No	BUY	90	25¢	$22	0x84a24e…
04-27 17:16:10	Will Leavitt say "Democrat" 5+ times during the next White House press briefing?	No	BUY	267	25¢	$67	0x248735…
04-27 17:16:08	Will Leavitt say "Democrat" 5+ times during the next White House press briefing?	No	BUY	44	25¢	$11	0x30d36f…
04-27 17:13:56	Will Leavitt say "Despicable" or "Disgusting" during the next White House press briefing?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xde15ea…
04-26 00:37:02	Will Trump say "First Lady" or "Movie Star" during WHCA Dinner events?	Yes	BUY	300	75¢	$225	0x631b70…
04-26 00:36:22	Will Trump say "Fake News" during WHCA Dinner events?	Yes	BUY	152	84¢	$128	0x65e32d…
04-26 00:36:02	Will Trump say "Fake News" during WHCA Dinner events?	Yes	BUY	31	84¢	$26	0x00ae40…
04-26 00:36:00	Will Trump say "Fake News" during WHCA Dinner events?	Yes	BUY	166	84¢	$139	0x6ba2e0…
04-26 00:35:58	Will Trump say "Fake News" during WHCA Dinner events?	Yes	BUY	7	84¢	$6	0xa9c1fc…
04-26 00:35:52	Will Trump say "Fake News" during WHCA Dinner events?	Yes	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x21c533…
04-25 23:51:12	Will Trump say "Midterm" or "Election" 3+ times during WHCA Dinner events?	No	BUY	150	50¢	$75	0x158a92…
04-25 23:36:14	Will Trump say "Midterm" or "Election" 3+ times during WHCA Dinner events?	No	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x62cbe5…
04-25 23:33:28	Will Trump say "Midterm" or "Election" 3+ times during WHCA Dinner events?	No	BUY	49	50¢	$24	0xe8a28d…
04-25 21:39:50	Will Trump say "Beautiful" or "Wonderful" 12+ times during WHCA Dinner events?	No	BUY	363	67¢	$243	0x41aebb…
04-25 20:41:30	Will Trump say "Air Force" during WHCA Dinner events?	No	BUY	208	63¢	$131	0xfdb498…
04-25 20:16:22	Will Trump say "Beautiful" or "Wonderful" 12+ times during WHCA Dinner events?	No	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xa0cb24…
04-25 20:00:32	Will Trump say "Gulf of America" or "Gulf of Trump" during WHCA Dinner events?	No	BUY	400	69¢	$276	0xeabe97…
04-25 19:54:26	Will Trump say "Beautiful" or "Wonderful" 12+ times during WHCA Dinner events?	No	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x2abaaa…
04-25 19:31:40	Will Trump say "Beautiful" or "Wonderful" 12+ times during WHCA Dinner events?	No	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xec61e5…
04-25 19:30:36	Will Trump say "Air Force" during WHCA Dinner events?	No	BUY	92	63¢	$58	0x20b9a4…
04-25 19:02:02	Will Trump say "Too Late" or "Powell" during WHCA Dinner events?	No	BUY	254	70¢	$178	0xc2651e…
04-25 17:40:28	Will Trump say "Fake News" during WHCA Dinner events?	Yes	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x337860…
04-25 17:34:24	Will Trump say "Beautiful" or "Wonderful" 12+ times during WHCA Dinner events?	No	BUY	4	67¢	$2	0x5f2afc…
04-25 17:23:08	Will Trump say "Fake News" during WHCA Dinner events?	Yes	BUY	31	84¢	$26	0x85e9f8…
04-25 17:11:18	Will Trump say "Too Late" or "Powell" during WHCA Dinner events?	No	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x312995…
04-25 16:55:28	Will Trump say "Beautiful" or "Wonderful" 12+ times during WHCA Dinner events?	No	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x1d087d…
04-25 16:47:18	Will Trump say "Too Late" or "Powell" during WHCA Dinner events?	No	BUY	33	70¢	$23	0xf4c6bf…
04-25 16:45:40	Will Trump say "Too Late" or "Powell" during WHCA Dinner events?	No	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xc3715a…
04-25 16:43:28	Will Trump say "Beautiful" or "Wonderful" 12+ times during WHCA Dinner events?	No	BUY	9	67¢	$6	0x3bb61b…
04-23 19:47:26	will trump say blockade during healthcare event	Yes	BUY	536	35¢	$187	0x90ce4b…
04-23 19:36:18	will trump say blockade during healthcare event	Yes	BUY	50	35¢	$18	0x7312b2…
04-23 19:31:30	will trump say unaffordable care act during healthcare event	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x30213d…
04-23 19:27:28	will trump say iran during healthcare event	Yes	BUY	403	65¢	$262	0x07b8b6…
04-23 19:27:18	will trump say iran during healthcare event	Yes	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xbe399f…
04-23 19:27:16	will trump say iran during healthcare event	Yes	BUY	30	65¢	$20	0x65d383…
04-23 19:27:10	will trump say iran during healthcare event	Yes	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0xe9dc53…
04-23 19:26:26	will trump say unaffordable care act during healthcare event	Yes	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x38cbf5…
04-23 19:26:02	will trump say unaffordable care act during healthcare event	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x3b4a2f…
04-23 19:24:30	will trump say new york during healthcare event	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x6f7ec9…