Innocent-Opponent — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$37

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

14.0%

Resolved

140

Trades

4,207

lifetime

Volume

$19.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 05-12 08:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Crypto

67% 17% $-37

Other

17% 100% +$0

Politics

15% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 524 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	54	$657	5,662	5,662	+0	open	—	03-01 08:12
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	61	$456	26,723	100	+26,623	open	—	02-28 08:49
elon musk of tweets january 17 january 19 140 164	16	$412	410	410	+0	open	—	01-19 14:40
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	46	$346	4,864	4,864	+0	open	—	03-01 18:57
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	16	$256	170	170	+0	open	—	03-02 23:40
elon musk of tweets january 17 january 19 115 139	14	$253	350	350	+0	open	—	01-19 12:59
elon musk of tweets january 17 january 19 90 114	7	$199	450	450	+0	open	—	01-19 13:58
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	30	$197	209	208	+0	open	—	03-03 00:00
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	20	$196	165	165	+0	open	—	03-03 07:12
will iran strike cyprus in march	20	$185	155	155	+0	open	—	03-02 23:56
elon musk of tweets january 19 january 21 140 164	16	$175	400	396	+4	open	—	01-20 21:53
elon musk of tweets january 19 january 21 90 114	25	$165	400	400	+0	open	—	01-20 07:49
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	15	$157	126	126	+0	open	—	03-03 07:11
elon musk tweets january 8 january 10 190 214	5	$149	40	120	-80	open	—	01-10 16:42
elon musk of tweets january 19 january 21 115 139	6	$126	200	200	+0	open	—	01-20 22:51
bitcoin above 74k on march 3	7	$125	64	64	+0	open	—	03-02 20:17
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	10	$101	70	70	+0	open	—	03-02 20:17
will xander schauffele win the 2026 masters tournament	7	$98	60	60	+0	open	—	03-03 07:11
btc updown 15m 1772633700	12	$97	100	100	+0	open	—	03-04 14:28
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	4	$97	50	50	+0	open	—	03-02 23:46
elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 580plus	8	$94	100	100	+0	open	—	01-13 17:13
sea pis bol 2026 03 02 bol	15	$91	95	65	+30	open	—	03-02 20:17
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	49	$86	221	221	-0	open	—	04-01 20:28
elon musk 48h tweets january 3 january 5 140plus	3	$76	60	60	+0	open	—	01-05 09:24
elon musk 48h tweets january 5 january 7 140plus	6	$73	100	0	+100	open	—	01-05 15:24
elon musk of tweets january 31 february 2 65 89	5	$73	100	100	+0	open	—	02-02 14:37
elon musk of tweets december 30 january 6 520 539	4	$72	60	60	+0	open	—	01-06 19:05
nba lac gsw 2026 03 02	6	$69	75	71	+4	open	—	03-03 00:34
netanyahu out by march 31 854	11	$60	50	50	+0	open	—	03-18 21:05
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?	5	$55	300	0	+300	open	—	01-15 18:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-12 08:13:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xcb1652…
05-12 07:58:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x4c8b9d…
05-12 07:28:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x45bc12…
05-12 07:18:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0x231033…
05-12 07:18:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x06c56d…
05-08 05:16:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0xa088e6…
05-08 05:14:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Up	SELL	10	41¢	$4	0x77eb84…
05-08 05:14:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0xfa8fbd…
05-08 05:06:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	SELL	10	43¢	$4	0x9ee68a…
05-08 05:05:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x65bdea…
05-08 05:01:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	SELL	10	22¢	$2	0xbc627d…
05-08 05:00:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x54dd68…
05-08 04:51:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	SELL	10	46¢	$5	0x99d63a…
05-08 04:50:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0xf3fccf…
05-08 04:35:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	SELL	10	40¢	$4	0xebe902…
05-08 04:35:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x08fde0…
05-08 04:26:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	SELL	10	48¢	$5	0x8aa80f…
05-08 04:25:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	7	57¢	$4	0xb88183…
05-08 04:25:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	3	57¢	$2	0x095cf0…
05-08 04:20:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	SELL	10	43¢	$4	0xace6c9…
05-08 04:20:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x4fd042…
05-08 04:06:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	SELL	10	47¢	$5	0xb880df…
05-08 04:05:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0xf09cd2…
05-08 04:00:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	BUY	8	57¢	$4	0xb358b8…
05-08 04:00:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xac7746…
05-08 03:51:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Up	SELL	10	45¢	$4	0x36a54a…
05-08 03:50:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Up	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x5077c6…
05-08 03:45:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	SELL	10	48¢	$5	0x6cb4a7…
05-08 03:45:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0xb96fb4…
05-08 03:41:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	SELL	10	47¢	$5	0x8938ee…
05-08 03:40:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x965159…
05-08 03:36:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x18d68a…
05-08 03:36:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	57¢	$1	0xe915e2…
05-08 03:36:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xdec0b4…
05-08 03:31:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	SELL	10	46¢	$5	0x6f3b7f…
05-08 03:30:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x39960d…
05-08 03:29:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	SELL	10	35¢	$4	0xe05503…
05-08 03:28:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0xfe8c32…
05-08 03:23:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	SELL	10	48¢	$5	0x252ad8…
05-08 03:20:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0xfa21cc…
05-08 03:15:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x72c887…
05-08 03:06:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	SELL	10	46¢	$5	0x0786ca…
05-08 03:05:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xbfb938…
05-08 03:00:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	SELL	10	46¢	$5	0x219778…
05-08 02:59:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x057ed6…
05-08 02:55:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	SELL	10	47¢	$5	0xd1a61d…
05-08 02:55:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x6475c3…
05-08 02:50:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	SELL	10	43¢	$4	0x2b02f0…
05-08 02:50:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x4bb15d…
05-08 02:41:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	SELL	10	46¢	$5	0x5ca3b8…
05-08 02:40:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0xd67150…
05-08 02:35:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	SELL	10	38¢	$4	0x4877b8…
05-08 02:35:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0xca9e57…
05-08 02:30:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	10	47¢	$5	0xe81e3b…
05-08 02:30:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	8	57¢	$4	0xb703db…
05-08 02:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x58e776…
05-08 02:25:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	SELL	10	46¢	$5	0x2619af…
05-08 02:24:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x65e262…
05-08 02:20:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x89f23f…
05-08 02:13:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0xf9f5b1…
05-08 02:05:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	SELL	10	43¢	$4	0x9e36c5…
05-08 02:04:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xbf3dfd…
05-08 02:04:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x67fc3e…
05-08 01:47:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	SELL	10	30¢	$3	0x509df7…
05-08 01:47:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0xae6206…
05-08 01:40:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	SELL	10	46¢	$5	0x211f10…
05-08 01:40:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0xe67312…
05-08 01:30:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	SELL	10	39¢	$4	0x112438…
05-08 01:30:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0xcadd52…
05-08 01:28:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0xfcb9b7…
05-08 01:25:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x3a6aa5…
05-08 01:20:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	SELL	10	44¢	$4	0xb19466…
05-08 01:19:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x017b47…
05-08 01:18:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x48e886…
05-08 01:05:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	SELL	10	37¢	$4	0xf87b1e…
05-08 01:05:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x924197…
05-08 00:59:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x0cabed…
05-08 00:57:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	SELL	10	26¢	$3	0x095a9e…
05-08 00:56:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x191bd0…
05-08 00:33:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	SELL	10	43¢	$4	0x2618a8…
05-08 00:33:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	BUY	3	57¢	$2	0xe8d749…
05-08 00:33:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x49b0c8…
05-08 00:33:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	57¢	$1	0x3b3ed1…
05-08 00:33:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x31aa6a…
05-08 00:33:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x12c64e…
05-08 00:20:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	SELL	10	45¢	$4	0xf76472…
05-08 00:19:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x6147eb…
05-08 00:15:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	SELL	10	39¢	$4	0xf43b5c…
05-08 00:14:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0xc327d0…
05-08 00:10:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	SELL	10	46¢	$5	0xc22c5e…
05-08 00:10:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	57¢	$3	0xbce258…
05-08 00:10:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	57¢	$3	0x8338b6…
05-08 00:05:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0xf532ae…
05-08 00:00:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	SELL	10	50¢	$5	0x909b10…
05-07 23:59:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x85f028…
05-07 23:59:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x69a6c4…
05-07 23:59:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	SELL	10	40¢	$4	0x387b91…
05-07 23:55:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x61d5be…
05-07 23:51:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	SELL	10	47¢	$5	0xc364c9…
05-07 23:51:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0xeafcac…