Afraid-Index — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

95.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,253

lifetime

Volume

$12.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-23

last 06-09 14:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 18 days

Categories

Other

79% 96% +$0

Sports

17% 100% +$0

Crypto

4% 100% +$0

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

78 active days in 12wk • peak 45 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 14:29:52	kbo ssg lg 2026 06 09	LG Twins	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x280cb4…
06-08 21:37:09	France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x99e80b…
06-08 12:03:42	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xdcfb7e…
06-07 23:59:18	lol lll vks 2026 06 07 total games 2pt5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xa74ed6…
06-07 21:58:15	mlb mil col 2026 06 07 spread away 1pt5	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x368349…
06-07 19:26:45	cs2 ts7 9z 2026 06 07 map handicap away 1pt5	Spirit	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6969f4…
06-07 19:09:07	atp cobolli zverev 2026 06 07 set handicap away 1pt5	Cobolli	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3745b7…
06-07 18:51:39	Will Pierre Gasly finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf1bded…
06-07 18:51:39	Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc4573c…
06-07 18:51:39	Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xa88caf…
06-07 17:39:00	mlbb ts ver 2026 06 07 game1	Team Spirit	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3d5d0e…
06-07 16:59:30	cs2 bb3 m80 2026 06 07	BetBoom Team	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xa1b7c0…
06-07 13:09:45	sc2 hero cure 2026 06 07	herO	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd183ed…
06-07 11:41:46	r6siege edg oc1 2026 06 07	EDward Gaming	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x669841…
06-06 23:09:45	codmw tex riyf 2026 06 06	OpTic Texas	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb6299e…
06-06 14:19:18	lol jdg blg 2026 06 06 game handicap home 1pt5	Bilibili Gaming	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x027b49…
06-06 12:06:00	wttmen gauzy jha 2026 06 06	Jha	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2d1dc4…
06-06 11:32:34	itf haavist petruze 2026 06 06	Lucie Petruzelova	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8c70bb…
06-06 11:32:28	itf jovanov davies 2026 06 06	Allegra Korpanec Davies	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x67124f…
06-05 17:06:48	atp mensik zverev 2026 06 05 set totals 3pt5	Over 3.5	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x0458ec…
06-05 15:45:13	atp mensik zverev 2026 06 05 set handicap away 2pt5	Mensik	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe51278…
06-05 01:24:01	fda approves arvinas vepdegestrant 06 05 2026	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb9ef93…
06-04 04:48:37	crint ivo mli 2026 05 25	Mali	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x7824bb…
06-03 16:04:13	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x03fa36…
06-03 11:31:44	T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: China vs Oman	Oman	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6fa258…
06-03 04:48:56	T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Ivory Coast vs Mali	Mali	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0xdb105f…
06-03 04:48:56	T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Ivory Coast vs Mali	Mali	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x8e12c0…
06-03 04:48:56	T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Ivory Coast vs Mali	Mali	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x16f606…
06-02 22:56:07	Valorant: SaD Esports vs NRG Academy - Map 2 Winner	NRG Academy	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe190f4…
06-02 15:24:31	Foggia: Mayar Sherif vs Carlota Martinez Cirez	Mayar Sherif	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd674d3…
06-01 18:06:51	Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5fb070…
06-01 14:42:48	Cobolli vs. Svajda: Match O/U 36.5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x15fc04…
06-01 14:41:33	will spy reach 750 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf045c7…
06-01 05:58:32	Will Luis Suárez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x286bea…
06-01 04:11:26	LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs	Team Liquid	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6d7dbb…
05-31 21:15:11	Jakub Mensik vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 4.5	Over 4.5	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf964f9…
05-31 19:09:27	Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x198fe3…
05-31 17:33:03	T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands	Netherlands	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x38a697…
05-31 15:36:44	Rafael Jodar vs. Pablo Carreno Busta: Total Sets O/U 3.5	Over 3.5	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1f4995…
05-31 15:26:44	Set Handicap: Jodar (-2.5) vs Busta (+2.5)	Busta	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x233f3b…
05-31 14:19:37	Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - FRAGgg Playoffs	HOTU	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xdbeaad…
05-31 04:51:48	Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)	Seattle Mariners	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x95c9d0…
05-30 19:22:00	Moise Kouame vs. Alejandro Tabilo: Total Sets O/U 3.5	Over 3.5	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xee1162…
05-30 17:58:00	Set Handicap: Tabilo (-2.5) vs Kouame (+2.5)	Kouame	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xa29506…
05-30 17:22:57	Molde FK vs. Sandefjord Fotball: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xde3b81…
05-30 15:10:13	Malmo FF vs. Halmstads BK: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x117d2c…
05-30 14:25:12	PAOK vs. Panathinaikos	Panathinaikos	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x0e2a35…
05-30 13:13:43	Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-2.5) vs Svajda (+2.5)	Svajda	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xfe4f70…
05-30 12:10:48	Set Handicap: Osaka (-1.5) vs Jovic (+1.5)	Jovic	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xcb1e7a…
05-30 05:51:16	ITF Men Luan: Completed Match: Eric Jr Olivarez vs Xiaofei Wang	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x96415a…
05-30 04:48:38	Valorant: Asterisk vs No Salary Peek (BO3) - VCL South Asia: Regular Season	Asterisk	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xb68a1d…
05-30 04:48:37	Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: August Holmgren vs Daniel Jade	August Holmgren	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xc58cbb…
05-30 02:48:02	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in May?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x92cfcb…
05-29 21:58:37	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2a0b88…
05-29 21:20:45	Set Handicap: Ruud (-2.5) vs Paul (+2.5)	Paul	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6b7de2…
05-29 21:01:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5f65bd…
05-29 19:47:52	Fredrikstad FK vs. IK Start: O/U 4.5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb22532…
05-29 19:08:06	LoL: Ronaldo Team vs Bubliki - Game 1 Winner	Bubliki	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2b2986…
05-29 13:57:03	Borges vs. Rublev: Match O/U 36.5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x86b4e0…
05-29 10:23:50	ITF Tsaghkadzor: Kristina Kroitor vs Sevil Yuldasheva	Kristina Kroitor	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xccf08b…
05-28 20:08:38	Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on May 28?	Up	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x0473cb…
05-28 20:00:13	Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5)	Collignon	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x397835…
05-28 16:52:19	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x41b36c…
05-28 16:31:21	Valorant: Asterisk vs No Salary Peek (BO3) - VCL South Asia: Regular Season	Asterisk	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xe007ec…
05-28 16:31:21	Valorant: Asterisk vs No Salary Peek (BO3) - VCL South Asia: Regular Season	Asterisk	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xcf460b…
05-28 16:13:30	Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Wadi Degla SC: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3dbd2d…
05-28 12:44:15	T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Ivory Coast vs Botswana	Botswana	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x38e6b7…
05-28 12:33:02	Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs Cerundolo	Sinner	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x48ce0c…
05-28 02:32:33	Red Bull Bragantino vs. Carabobo FC: O/U 1.5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd77cd5…
05-27 02:14:32	Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)	Cincinnati Reds	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x0540df…
05-26 19:48:32	Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs Tabur	Sinner	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8ae9d6…
05-26 14:03:26	Set Handicap: Vacherot (-2.5) vs Faurel (+2.5)	Faurel	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x840150…
05-26 13:18:03	Tallon Griekspoor vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5	Over 3.5	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xef4a7c…
05-25 08:09:07	T20 Series Sri Lanka A vs New Zealand A, Women: Sri Lanka A vs New Zealand A	New Zealand A	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x130f47…
05-25 04:48:27	Will 1+ world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x218ee8…
05-24 22:57:05	Roland Garros ATP: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Novak Djokovic	Novak Djokovic	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x71e92a…
05-24 20:06:15	US Catanzaro 1929 vs. AC Monza: O/U 0.5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x22773c…
05-24 19:24:10	Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Mattia Bellucci	Quentin Halys	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc527e7…
05-24 16:02:38	LoL: GTZ Esports vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season	The Otter Side	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x5d8c69…
05-24 15:57:40	Roland Garros ATP: Tomas Machac vs Zizou Bergs	Tomas Machac	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x0ea180…
05-24 15:30:01	AC Sparta Praha vs. FC Hradec Králové: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4662e9…
05-24 09:37:46	Brand Risk Promotions 14: Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menery	Manziel	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3ef78e…
05-24 08:02:48	Brand Risk Promotions 14: Ray J vs. Supah Hot Fire	Supah Hot	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7756cb…
05-24 00:32:06	Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xabbb2b…
05-23 17:47:05	LoL: GTZ Esports vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season	The Otter Side	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6f93ac…
05-23 16:16:07	LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 3 Winner	ThunderTalk Gaming	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6aba18…
05-23 12:56:33	Nedic vs. Sanchis: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7f7226…
05-23 01:24:47	Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x35fe5e…
05-21 14:25:03	Internationaux de Strasbourg (Doubles): Joint/Perez vs Eikeri/Gleason	Eikeri/Gleason	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x32b2d7…
05-21 11:20:09	ITF Men Luan: Completed Match: Eric Jr Olivarez vs Xiaofei Wang	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc89421…
05-21 04:00:51	Spread: Cusco FC (-1.5)	Independiente Medellín	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x989a75…
05-20 21:53:23	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc79e29…
05-20 21:22:33	Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: August Holmgren vs Daniel Jade	August Holmgren	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x0aea18…
05-20 21:17:30	Hamburg European Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alex de Minaur	Alex de Minaur	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3c6a7e…
05-20 20:56:30	SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Over	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8e7fdf…
05-20 19:13:52	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd2137e…
05-20 14:01:52	Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 1?	Under	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x14775f…
05-20 12:43:18	Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Ugo Blanchet vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz	Pablo Llamas Ruiz	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5aee23…
05-20 09:50:43	Internationaux de Strasbourg: Marie Bouzkova vs Oleksandra Oliynykova	Marie Bouzkova	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7c4534…
05-20 09:47:39	First Blood in Game 1?	T1	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xea7ea9…

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
LoL: GTZ Esports vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	05-24 16:02
Valorant: Asterisk vs No Salary Peek (BO3) - VCL South Asia: Regular Season	3	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	05-30 04:48
highest temperature in milan on april 5 2026 17c	2	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	04-05 08:55
crint ivo mli 2026 05 25	4	$20	10	10	-0	open	—	06-04 04:48
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-01 01:24
highest temperature in shanghai on april 9 2026 28c	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-09 07:11
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: August Holmgren vs Daniel Jade	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	05-30 04:48
ITF Men Luan: Completed Match: Eric Jr Olivarez vs Xiaofei Wang	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	05-30 05:51
Map Handicap: DRIP (-1.5) vs m1x (+1.5)	2	$20	10	10	+0	m1x	+$0	05-07 11:00
blast open rotterdam 2026 will a player break something during a game	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	03-31 03:59
Over $1M committed to the Pharos public sale?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-25 16:26
highest temperature in paris on april 15 2026 18c	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-15 20:57
bitcoin above 78k on april 24	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-24 17:13
Istanbul: Laura Pigossi vs Lucia Cortez Llorca	2	$20	10	10	+0	Laura Pigossi	$-0	05-05 15:54
Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-01 01:47
fl1 psg nan 2026 04 22 total 1pt5	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	04-22 17:37
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	03-24 20:12
atp shimabu riedi 2026 04 17 set totals 2pt5	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-17 07:01
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Magda Linette vs Tatjana Maria	1	$10	10	0	+10	Tatjana Maria	+$0	05-06 10:22
arg tal rie 2026 04 19 btts	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-20 03:02
Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	05-04 02:46
highest temperature in shenzhen on march 25 2026 27c	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	03-25 05:20
atp rocha sakamot 2026 04 16 set totals 2pt5	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-16 16:49
Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs Tabur	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	05-26 19:48
Fluent FDV above $200M one day after launch?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	04-25 20:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1PM ET	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	05-18 18:01
tur gfk ala 2026 04 04 ala	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-04 17:05
cs2 leo2 brute 2026 04 07 game2	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-07 18:04
cs2 red9 m8 2026 04 14 game2	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-14 15:13
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-23 18:11