Afraid-Index — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$11

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

97.3%

Resolved

2,025

Trades

2,085

lifetime

Volume

$20.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-23

last 10-27 13:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 209 days

Categories

Other

80% 98% +$7

Sports

15% 100% +$3

Crypto

3% 98% +$1

Tech

1% 100% +$0

Politics

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

73 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 13:12:03	Guangzhou Open: Xinran Sun vs Mananchaya Sawangkaew	Xinran Sun	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc85c2c…
10-25 09:31:02	Ningbo: Semen Pankin vs Maxim Zhukov	Semen Pankin	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x0d7daa…
10-24 13:22:36	Will Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xb8e42c…
10-24 13:22:09	Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x1f8ce4…
10-23 16:52:29	Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz	Taylor Fritz	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x906a6e…
10-23 07:21:20	Ningbo Open: Sara Bejlek vs Marie Bouzkova	Marie Bouzkova	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8be540…
10-23 06:10:03	Japan Women's Open: Talia Gibson vs Ashlyn Krueger	Ashlyn Krueger	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x7f22d2…
10-21 21:00:51	Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-10-21?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1f91d8…
10-21 17:04:05	Lyon Open: Corentin Moutet vs Felix Balshaw	Corentin Moutet	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2d6228…
10-20 18:47:42	Will Sabah FK win on 2026-10-20?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x764cdd…
10-20 18:35:32	Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-20?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf50139…
10-19 18:51:57	Lyon Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Moise Kouame	Moise Kouame	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xa61555…
10-18 03:35:36	Notre Dame vs. BYU	BYU	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xfec8e4…
10-15 20:32:45	W35 Heraklion: Juliette Mazzoni vs Miriam Bianca Bulgaru	Juliette Mazzoni	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x568f82…
10-15 19:37:40	Santa Cruz 2: Guido Justo vs Juan Manuel La Serna	Juan Manuel La Serna	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x725961…
10-14 20:56:42	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-14?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xedb25d…
10-14 13:09:18	wta krueger tararud 2026 10 14	Ashlyn Krueger	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb5d2c1…
10-14 11:41:26	atp medvede tsitsip 2026 10 13	Daniil Medvedev	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5fc5ab…
10-13 22:49:00	atp casanov serna 2026 10 13	Juan Manuel La Serna	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x8eef00…
10-13 21:12:07	Santa Cruz 2: Luis Guto Miguel vs Murkel Dellien	Luis Guto Miguel	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x212a2d…
10-13 20:58:58	Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-10-13?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x68ab50…
10-13 15:53:25	wta pohanko wan 2026 10 13	Mia Pohankova	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc72a06…
10-13 14:15:19	Catania: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Federico Bondioli	Enrico Dalla Valle	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc66595…
10-13 01:32:59	Thunder vs. Hawks	Hawks	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x063693…
10-12 16:35:44	Olbia: Lorenzo Carboni vs Mackenzie McDonald	Lorenzo Carboni	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xfe83c1…
10-12 09:04:07	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Jiri Lehecka vs Rafael Jodar	Rafael Jodar	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xab917f…
10-11 20:16:13	Bengals vs. Dolphins	Bengals	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x325df6…
10-11 10:49:51	Olbia: Dimitar Kuzmanov vs Ryan Peniston	Dimitar Kuzmanov	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xef2cef…
10-11 10:26:12	Olbia: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Viktor Durasovic	Viktor Durasovic	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x69c1b7…
10-10 12:54:19	China Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Elise Mertens	Qinwen Zheng	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe44aa3…
10-10 11:08:43	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Learner Tien vs Zachary Svajda	Learner Tien	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x16b5f3…
10-09 12:00:45	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Novak Djokovic vs Hubert Hurkacz	Hubert Hurkacz	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x85d5ba…
10-09 02:09:54	Missouri State vs. Western Kentucky	Western Kentucky	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xbb91ed…
10-08 07:35:42	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Hamad Medjedovic	Thiago Agustin Tirante	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x8574ed…
10-07 14:42:14	Villena: Edas Butvilas vs Max Hans Rehberg	Max Hans Rehberg	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x069f19…
10-07 06:30:54	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Adrian Mannarino vs Nikoloz Basilashvili	Adrian Mannarino	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x418e32…
10-07 05:49:23	W15 Maanshan: Anna Yang vs Darja Suvirdjonkova	Anna Yang	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xfd7dd0…
10-06 22:21:09	Antofagasta: Guido Justo vs Francisco Comesana	Guido Justo	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x4765e0…
10-06 20:46:23	Will Spain win on 2026-10-06?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6262c6…
10-06 16:07:30	Palermo: Kalin Ivanovski vs Alejandro Moro Canas	Alejandro Moro Canas	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7c87c8…
10-04 23:23:17	LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 1 Winner	Team Liquid	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x93fac4…
10-04 20:22:58	Rams vs. Eagles	Rams	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1189f8…
10-04 20:17:37	Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Astralis (BO5) - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs	Astralis	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb96885…
10-04 07:45:13	Wuning 3: Ryan Seggerman vs Naoki Tajima	Ryan Seggerman	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x72d284…
10-03 14:50:32	China Open: Elena Rybakina vs Alina Charaeva	Alina Charaeva	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x217aca…
10-03 06:09:56	Montana State vs. Idaho	Idaho	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x0a7b81…
10-03 05:54:30	wta sakkari hunter 2026 10 01	Maria Sakkari	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xbc23ab…
10-03 02:53:02	Pittsburgh vs. Virginia Tech	Pittsburgh	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x9e1317…
10-02 14:15:30	Will Bolivia win on 2026-10-04?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x56c162…
10-02 14:12:33	Will Bolivia vs. Gambia end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb3c93a…
10-01 20:46:21	Will Portugal win on 2026-10-01?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6a646c…
10-01 20:36:06	Will Malta win on 2026-10-01?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xc2e148…
10-01 20:36:05	Will Wales vs. Norway end in a draw?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x229e6d…
10-01 16:08:59	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 1?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe48d74…
10-01 12:05:03	atp grieksp rublev 2026 09 29	Andrey Rublev	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xecb5c6…
10-01 05:13:29	mlb chc sd 2026 09 30	San Diego Padres	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x0eafc2…
09-30 23:54:48	Will China PR vs. Turkmenistan end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xe95bf3…
09-30 01:58:17	Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs	Canadiens	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1a4455…
09-29 20:38:38	Will Slovakia win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x2f187f…
09-29 13:58:51	atp cretu rocha 2026 09 28	Henrique Rocha	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf913ca…
09-29 13:20:14	atp medvede rublev 2026 09 29	Daniil Medvedev	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xbdc1f3…
09-28 20:43:08	atp zink krueger 2026 09 28	Mitchell Krueger	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x27a3e6…
09-28 10:07:54	atp vallejo daniel 2026 09 28	Adolfo Vallejo	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xd0d612…
09-28 03:36:12	atp tsitsip nishiok 2026 09 27	Stefanos Tsitsipas	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x8364ac…
09-27 20:16:15	Chargers vs. Bills	Bills	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x9be4b6…
09-27 20:13:41	nfl cin pit 2026 09 27	Steelers	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x08a8c7…
09-27 14:05:48	atp droguet mayot 2026 09 27	Titouan Droguet	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x55378b…
09-27 13:30:42	atp harri hurkacz 2026 09 27	Hubert Hurkacz	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x679d7c…
09-27 12:11:59	atp safiull bu 2026 09 27	Roman Safiullin	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x41849b…
09-27 02:16:39	UFC Fight Night: Norma Dumont vs. Ailin Perez (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)	Ailin Perez	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x74c15c…
09-27 00:28:06	Wisconsin vs. Penn State	Wisconsin	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x742bc1…
09-26 23:23:50	Oklahoma vs. Georgia	Georgia	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x13ebdb…
09-26 20:01:35	Columbia vs. Georgetown	Columbia	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x9457c4…
09-26 19:53:23	Texas vs. Tennessee	Texas	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x21485e…
09-26 16:26:38	cs2 hero sng2 2026 09 26	Heroic	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x704b6b…
09-26 12:18:24	wta fernand chwalin 2026 09 26	Leylah Fernandez	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3b079c…
09-25 22:57:42	atp prado barrena 2026 09 25	Alex Barrena	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xb6dd29…
09-25 10:12:53	atp marozsa daniel 2026 09 25	Fabian Marozsan	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xaff9c8…
09-24 20:45:11	Will Norway win on 2026-09-24?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x75f1f4…
09-23 22:37:46	mlb min sf 2026 09 23	Minnesota Twins	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x75d0a7…
09-23 16:26:48	bitcoin above 84k on september 23 2026	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x19eacb…
09-23 04:45:14	wta tararud park 2026 09 22	Lanlana Tararudee	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x90618e…
09-21 19:09:03	will msft dip to 495 by september 21 2026	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x0131ec…
09-21 18:44:33	wta naito aksu 2026 09 21	Ayla Aksu	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x87f315…
09-21 14:21:26	Buenos Aires 2: Fermin Tenti vs Mariano Kestelboim	Fermin Tenti	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc30846…
09-20 22:25:40	Browns vs. Buccaneers	Browns	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7b8760…
09-20 21:48:07	Will Panaitolikos Agrinio win on 2026-09-20?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xa27417…
09-20 21:08:26	Will CD Leganés vs. Granada CF end in a draw?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6bb84e…
09-20 12:44:51	cs2 sta6 ttbs 2026 09 20	STATE	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xcb0f96…
09-20 09:13:45	val flfe genggc 2026 09 20 game1	Gen.G GC	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2fa7a4…
09-20 02:59:39	will ethereum dip to 2600 in september 2026	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x478520…
09-20 01:26:40	Florida State vs. Alabama	Alabama	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x79eb72…
09-20 00:02:52	Southeastern Louisiana vs. Louisiana-Monroe	Southeastern Louisiana	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc22a39…
09-19 20:39:09	NC State vs. Vanderbilt	Vanderbilt	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4e020c…
09-19 13:49:06	Will Rochdale AFC win on 2026-09-19?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x22fb56…
09-18 20:00:51	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 18?	Down	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x77d8bc…
09-18 19:32:18	Will AC Oulu win on 2026-09-18?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7d8f78…
09-17 20:22:42	cs2 ence kamui 2026 09 17	KAMUI	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x11bda9…
09-17 17:27:43	lol ckz esb 2026 09 19 game1	CITA Kaizen	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xde0d28…
09-17 16:02:39	Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on September 17?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x99e3b7…

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?	3	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	07-06 21:03
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	06-29 14:02
Map Handicap: DRIP (-1.5) vs m1x (+1.5)	2	$20	10	10	+0	m1x	+$0	05-07 11:00
Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?	2	$20	10	10	+0	Yes	+$0	08-12 23:04
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 25?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	05-25 02:08
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-08-03?	2	$20	10	10	+0	Yes	+$0	08-03 23:14
Valorant: Asterisk vs No Salary Peek (BO3) - VCL South Asia: Regular Season	3	$20	10	10	+0	Asterisk	+$0	05-30 04:48
alien abduction at brazil vs scotland game in miami 20260624221224553	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	06-25 02:00
highest temperature in milan on april 5 2026 17c	2	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	04-05 08:55
LoL: GTZ Esports vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season	2	$20	10	10	+0	The Otter Side	+$0	05-24 16:02
wta dilek falkows 2026 07 14	2	$20	10	10	+0	Weronika Falkowska	+$0	07-14 15:35
Will Spencer Roach be the Republican nominee for FL-19?	4	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	08-25 15:36
chris moneymaker 20260707142702023	2	$20	10	10	+0	Yes	+$0	07-24 05:32
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	04-01 01:24
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 2?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	05-02 01:35
Will Kai and Speed have between 50 and 69 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	08-12 22:39
Exact Score: Notts County FC 3 - 0 Salford City FC?	2	$20	10	10	+0	Yes	+$0	05-28 16:30
highest temperature in shanghai on april 9 2026 28c	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	04-09 07:11
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	06-01 23:08
Will Bob Rommel be the Republican nominee for FL-19?	4	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	08-25 15:36
crint ivo mli 2026 05 25	4	$20	10	10	-0	Mali	$0	06-04 04:48
ITF Men Luan: Completed Match: Eric Jr Olivarez vs Xiaofei Wang	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	05-30 05:51
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: August Holmgren vs Daniel Jade	2	$20	10	10	+0	August Holmgren	+$0	05-30 04:48
will wti reach 90 in july 2026 from july 27	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	07-31 21:47
Will CXMT’s market cap be 400 billion yuan or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2026?	2	$20	20	0	+20	Yes	+$0	07-27 07:31
blast open rotterdam 2026 will a player break something during a game	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	03-31 03:59
fl1 psg nan 2026 04 22 total 1pt5	2	$20	10	10	+0	Over	$0	04-22 17:37
Istanbul: Laura Pigossi vs Lucia Cortez Llorca	2	$20	10	10	+0	Laura Pigossi	$0	05-05 15:54
Over $1M committed to the Pharos public sale?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	$0	04-25 16:26
Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	2	$20	10	10	+0	Yes	$0	04-01 01:47