Ignorant-Shot — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$19

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

98.6%

Resolved

278

Trades

279

lifetime

Volume

$3.26K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 10-31 17:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 230 days

Categories

Other

97% 100% +$4

Politics

3% 83% -$23

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

72 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C or higher on May 14?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-14 14:33
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$24	24	+24	No	-$24	05-15 05:32
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on May 13?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-13 06:18
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on May 12?	1	$23	24	+24	No	+$0	05-12 07:47
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C or higher on May 11?	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	05-11 11:51
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on May 10?	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	05-10 09:44
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C or higher on May 9?	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	05-09 09:56
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on May 8?	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	05-08 13:18
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C on May 8?	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	05-08 06:47
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 7?	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	05-07 17:07
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 7?	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	05-07 06:32
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 6?	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	05-06 15:29
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on May 5?	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	05-05 11:50
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 4?	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	05-05 02:53
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on May 3?	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	05-03 15:49
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on May 4?	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	05-04 16:00
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on May 2?	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	05-02 13:19
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$1	04-12 02:34
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-08 10:29
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	1	$22	23	+23	No	+$0	04-07 07:07
highest temperature in singapore on april 5 2026 35corhigher	1	$22	22	+22	No	+$0	04-05 09:27
highest temperature in tel aviv on april 3 2026 23c	1	$22	22	+22	Yes	+$0	04-03 16:31
highest temperature in wellington on april 3 2026 20c	1	$22	22	+22	No	+$0	04-03 07:39
highest temperature in seoul on april 2 2026 14c	1	$22	22	+22	Yes	+$0	04-02 10:32
highest temperature in los angeles on april 1 2026 66 67f	1	$22	22	+22	Yes	+$0	04-02 03:40
highest temperature in tokyo on april 1 2026 17c	1	$22	22	+22	Yes	+$0	04-01 08:57
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	1	$22	22	+22	No	+$0	03-31 10:24
highest temperature in san francisco on march 30 2026 70 71f	1	$22	22	+22	Yes	+$0	03-31 01:54
highest temperature in lucknow on march 30 2026 37c	1	$22	22	+22	Yes	+$0	03-30 14:50
highest temperature in wellington on march 30 2026 22corhigher	1	$22	22	+22	No	+$0	03-30 09:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 17:29:10	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C on November 1?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x78c45b…
10-31 09:48:55	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4b915a…
10-30 10:10:25	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3b5951…
10-29 08:53:25	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb73801…
10-28 07:34:59	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on October 28?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4fc222…
10-27 08:19:48	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xafd497…
10-26 09:13:35	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x406534…
10-22 10:08:12	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa5bbb5…
10-20 07:27:59	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on October 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xcc7962…
10-19 08:44:56	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on October 19?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8773ee…
10-18 09:03:47	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on October 18?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd30b15…
10-17 11:21:56	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on October 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xac2a8c…
10-16 08:56:10	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on October 16?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8e0998…
10-15 09:14:26	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x265d19…
10-14 09:12:47	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x722776…
10-13 08:40:59	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xcb1e82…
10-12 08:18:52	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on October 12?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x923c68…
10-11 08:14:24	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on October 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x48ea79…
10-08 08:21:56	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc393f7…
10-07 14:15:41	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on October 7?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfabd5d…
10-06 07:43:16	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 6?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc24505…
10-04 14:43:58	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on October 4?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x753d01…
10-03 05:47:05	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on October 3?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2f3488…
10-02 07:38:47	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 2?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x86c6f8…
10-01 08:14:38	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on October 1?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xeb8be1…
09-30 12:05:00	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on September 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xad43f7…
09-29 14:06:35	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on September 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0deb85…
09-28 09:24:17	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on September 28?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9f2c2e…
09-27 08:41:20	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on September 27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x09e5c9…
09-25 12:21:29	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 24°C on September 25?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x96f93b…
09-24 08:22:59	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on September 24?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfce191…
09-23 06:48:01	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x561c28…
09-22 07:46:49	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on September 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x614470…
09-21 09:12:56	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on September 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb3dca2…
09-20 05:37:19	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on September 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x41bdbe…
09-19 08:16:51	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on September 19?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x48d6ec…
09-18 06:14:10	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on September 18?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xefe9dc…
09-17 03:58:40	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C or below on September 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3b9551…
09-16 08:09:00	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 16?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7a103a…
09-15 09:03:52	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on September 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xae7c20…
09-14 08:17:57	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on September 14?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7a09f0…
09-12 16:14:43	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on September 12?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x202a62…
09-11 07:12:43	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on September 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0194ee…
09-10 04:57:33	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on September 10?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x65f1e2…
09-09 09:15:39	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on September 9?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x23ba18…
09-09 01:22:18	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on September 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc68b27…
09-08 02:32:30	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on September 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x727231…
09-07 08:15:18	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 7?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xced967…
09-06 17:43:10	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on September 6?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x48fcce…
09-06 09:09:54	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on September 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe220c4…
09-05 09:53:55	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x39d243…
09-04 17:33:07	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on September 4?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc6b0aa…
09-03 09:44:28	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on September 3?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xcfd8bc…
09-02 07:31:01	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on September 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x96ff7f…
08-30 08:26:52	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 30?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x97e978…
08-29 07:23:57	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7862bd…
08-28 07:21:31	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on August 28?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xdfc613…
08-27 07:59:42	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on August 27?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x091a58…
08-26 07:59:13	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 38°C or higher on August 26?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x963848…
08-25 08:25:18	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x09abd6…
08-24 09:46:39	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on August 24?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4677a7…
08-23 14:43:00	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on August 23?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe550b5…
08-22 08:41:57	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 22?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1e7801…
08-21 06:48:36	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on August 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x004a06…
08-20 08:36:06	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 20?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x131817…
08-19 10:56:04	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 19?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x112d99…
08-18 08:09:46	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 18?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd0c8eb…
08-17 07:16:22	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on August 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9f5690…
08-16 11:06:54	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x60e46a…
08-15 09:42:27	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x73ccc3…
08-14 06:40:42	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 14?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x163e5d…
08-13 07:45:27	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C on August 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x651748…
08-12 07:42:54	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on August 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6a1514…
08-11 06:48:49	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf8a340…
08-10 06:45:24	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on August 10?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa92382…
08-09 01:19:10	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on August 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2ced70…
08-08 07:20:55	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on August 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2c1700…
08-07 01:06:39	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 6?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa3038d…
08-06 06:32:47	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on August 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4534ae…
08-05 07:47:21	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on August 5?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbaf523…
08-04 08:08:44	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 4?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2206e2…
08-03 07:10:30	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 40°C on August 3?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x99741b…
08-02 01:32:03	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 1?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd1863d…
08-01 06:56:24	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 1?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4a1ef5…
07-31 08:21:29	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 31?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfd68bd…
07-30 06:45:11	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x83ce31…
07-29 06:08:24	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 29?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2bf154…
07-28 06:17:49	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x020917…
07-27 08:07:15	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x875c9b…
07-26 06:28:12	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 26?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa6fac6…
07-25 07:43:00	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x863600…
07-24 09:41:00	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 24?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6bd031…
07-23 02:17:04	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 22?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6488eb…
07-22 01:48:39	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 98-99°F on July 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x519b57…
07-20 23:51:12	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on July 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xdaf72e…
07-20 03:02:01	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 19?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x264751…
07-18 22:43:19	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 18?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x108d30…
07-18 00:13:10	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x807571…
07-17 06:31:10	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on July 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x74acee…
07-15 22:00:07	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on July 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x205b98…