Natural-Derby — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$36

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

47.5%

Resolved

119

Trades

399

lifetime

Volume

$1.88K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-08

last 07-21 01:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 14 days

Categories

Crypto

67% 58% -$67

Politics

23% 29% +$22

Sports

7% 40% +$14

Other

2% 0% -$5

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-21).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	9	$235	352	352	+0	No	-$30	05-31 22:22
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 16:15 UTC	6	$82	55	55	+0	Up	-$8	07-01 16:29
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	6	$73	125	125	+0	Yes	-$40	06-04 02:56
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 00:30 UTC	3	$68	59	59	+0	Down	+$12	06-30 00:30
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	3	$68	165	12	+152	Yes	+$94	05-12 12:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-02 13:15 UTC	3	$55	47	25	+22	Up	-$15	07-02 13:29
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	1	$50	85	0	+85	Yes	+$35	05-20 12:25
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 14:30 UTC	5	$50	28	28	+0	Down	$0	07-01 14:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 20:00 UTC	3	$37	36	15	+21	Up	-$2	06-30 20:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 14:15 UTC	5	$34	19	19	+0	Down	+$4	07-01 14:28
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 13:30 UTC	2	$31	17	17	+0	Up	+$2	07-01 13:44
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-02 11:30 UTC	2	$31	16	16	+0	Down	+$1	07-02 11:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 15:30 UTC	2	$31	16	16	+0	Down	+$1	07-01 15:44
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners	5	$31	30	30	+0	Seattle Mariners	+$1	05-31 22:57
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 14:45 UTC	2	$30	18	18	+0	Down	+$0	07-01 14:54
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-02 11:00 UTC	2	$29	16	16	+0	Up	-$1	07-02 11:14
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	2	$25	38	38	+0	No	$0	06-07 12:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-30 00:15 UTC	2	$22	23	23	+0	Down	+$2	06-30 00:18
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	1	$21	50	0	+50	No	-$21	05-30 16:03
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	2	$21	48	48	+0	No	+$0	06-03 00:46
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 19:45 UTC	1	$20	22	0	+22	Up	+$2	06-30 19:57
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 19:15 UTC	1	$20	24	0	+24	Up	-$20	06-30 19:26
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 19:00 UTC	1	$20	24	0	+24	Down	+$4	06-30 19:11
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 19:30 UTC	1	$20	24	0	+24	Up	+$4	06-30 19:42
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-29 14:15 UTC	3	$20	42	0	+42	Up	+$1	06-29 14:15
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?	2	$19	34	34	+0	No	-$1	06-30 01:15
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$19	17	17	+0	Yes	-$1	06-04 03:30
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	2	$18	83	83	+0	No	-$2	06-29 18:31
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$17	22	22	+0	No	$0	07-10 14:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	19	$17	65	52	+13	Up	-$1	05-08 01:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 01:48:25	Bloomfield Hills: Alexis Galarneau vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz	Pablo Llamas Ruiz	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x1b5ace…
07-21 01:30:42	atp struff shevche 2026 07 20	Alexander Shevchenko	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x9f2ec8…
07-21 01:29:54	wta blinkov bejlek 2026 07 20	Anna Blinkova	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xf3bea4…
07-21 01:29:27	atp choinsk jong 2026 07 20	Jan Choinski	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xe567a2…
07-21 01:28:19	atp bu gojo 2026 07 20	Yunchaokete Bu	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xf1ab89…
07-21 01:27:24	Estoril Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Jaime Faria	Botic van de Zandschulp	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x13d7d7…
07-21 01:24:37	Bloomfield Hills: Alexis Galarneau vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz	Pablo Llamas Ruiz	BUY	3	50¢	$1	0x7e983a…
07-10 14:43:13	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	22	38¢	$9	0x3684d6…
07-10 14:42:11	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	22	39¢	$9	0x052029…
07-02 19:33:17	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-02 19:30 UTC	Up	SELL	2	45¢	$1	0xddfabf…
07-02 19:32:34	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-02 19:30 UTC	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xfc208d…
07-02 13:29:25	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-02 13:15 UTC	Down	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x0b8383…
07-02 13:28:47	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-02 13:15 UTC	Up	SELL	25	79¢	$20	0xed6a87…
07-02 13:26:38	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-02 13:15 UTC	Up	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x87fb9d…
07-02 12:42:13	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-02 12:30 UTC	Down	BUY	19	81¢	$15	0x31fc21…
07-02 12:13:29	Ethereum Up or Down - July 2, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	16	97¢	$15	0x83a230…
07-02 11:44:01	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-02 11:30 UTC	Down	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0xe60558…
07-02 11:42:01	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-02 11:30 UTC	Down	BUY	16	91¢	$15	0x26ae62…
07-02 11:27:34	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-02 11:15 UTC	Up	BUY	21	72¢	$15	0xadbdc2…
07-02 11:14:43	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-02 11:00 UTC	Up	SELL	16	86¢	$14	0xf5f3bf…
07-02 11:12:08	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-02 11:00 UTC	Up	BUY	16	93¢	$15	0x26a401…
07-01 17:10:43	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 17:00 UTC	Down	SELL	12	57¢	$7	0x79200d…
07-01 17:05:23	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 17:00 UTC	Down	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x33429c…
07-01 16:53:32	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 16:45 UTC	Down	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0x0ebb12…
07-01 16:29:37	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 16:15 UTC	Up	SELL	26	78¢	$20	0x118031…
07-01 16:29:05	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 16:15 UTC	Up	BUY	26	77¢	$20	0x4feee0…
07-01 16:28:17	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 16:15 UTC	Down	SELL	13	18¢	$2	0x2e0163…
07-01 16:27:04	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x2e244d…
07-01 16:26:29	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 16:15 UTC	Down	SELL	16	87¢	$14	0x39863b…
07-01 16:26:05	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	16	92¢	$15	0xde4477…
07-01 15:44:29	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 15:30 UTC	Down	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x84916d…
07-01 15:40:25	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 15:30 UTC	Down	BUY	16	92¢	$15	0xed82fb…
07-01 14:54:13	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 14:45 UTC	Up	SELL	18	87¢	$15	0xaf1139…
07-01 14:54:07	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 14:45 UTC	Up	BUY	18	85¢	$15	0xa0be78…
07-01 14:44:22	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 14:30 UTC	Down	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x4cb157…
07-01 14:44:22	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 14:30 UTC	Down	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x134649…
07-01 14:41:59	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 14:30 UTC	Down	BUY	16	95¢	$15	0x9f5cc7…
07-01 14:39:59	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 14:30 UTC	Down	SELL	13	71¢	$9	0x567b20…
07-01 14:38:56	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 14:30 UTC	Down	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0xdb4643…
07-01 14:28:07	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 14:15 UTC	Down	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x2254f5…
07-01 14:28:05	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 14:15 UTC	Down	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0xffb8d5…
07-01 14:28:05	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 14:15 UTC	Down	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xf259f8…
07-01 14:28:05	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 14:15 UTC	Down	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x9f27fd…
07-01 14:26:53	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 14:15 UTC	Down	BUY	19	80¢	$15	0x97c1c5…
07-01 14:11:16	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 14:00 UTC	Up	BUY	16	92¢	$15	0xe20707…
07-01 13:44:19	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 13:30 UTC	Up	SELL	17	99¢	$16	0xfaf1f7…
07-01 13:41:11	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 13:30 UTC	Up	BUY	17	90¢	$15	0xc497d2…
07-01 13:26:37	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-01 13:15 UTC	Up	BUY	16	93¢	$15	0x59a3c3…
06-30 21:11:44	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 21:00 UTC	Down	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x43af89…
06-30 20:57:25	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 20:45 UTC	Up	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x565bbc…
06-30 20:42:17	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 20:30 UTC	Down	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x76c2d0…
06-30 20:14:08	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 20:00 UTC	Up	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0xec1657…
06-30 20:11:38	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 20:00 UTC	Up	SELL	15	45¢	$7	0x26e0db…
06-30 20:11:16	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 20:00 UTC	Up	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x05cfbf…
06-30 19:57:41	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 19:45 UTC	Up	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0x01dc65…
06-30 19:42:02	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 19:30 UTC	Up	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0x1dd9a7…
06-30 19:26:43	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 19:15 UTC	Down	BUY	24	85¢	$20	0x962cab…
06-30 19:11:43	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 19:00 UTC	Down	BUY	24	85¢	$20	0x7790eb…
06-30 18:55:53	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 18:45 UTC	Up	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x6d55c2…
06-30 18:27:11	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 18:15 UTC	Up	BUY	18	85¢	$15	0x8bdcf4…
06-30 18:12:08	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 18:00 UTC	Up	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x6a4953…
06-30 17:56:58	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 17:45 UTC	Up	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x2d75ed…
06-30 01:15:37	Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	SELL	34	27¢	$9	0xcb0dc9…
06-30 00:51:46	Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0x6967a6…
06-30 00:49:14	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 00:45 UTC	Down	SELL	21	23¢	$5	0x8e72ff…
06-30 00:32:28	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 00:45 UTC	Down	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0xded1c2…
06-30 00:30:58	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 00:30 UTC	Down	SELL	59	68¢	$40	0x5335d2…
06-30 00:25:10	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 00:30 UTC	Down	BUY	38	47¢	$18	0xbe06c1…
06-30 00:24:25	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 00:30 UTC	Down	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x68cb69…
06-30 00:22:26	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 00:15 UTC	Up	SELL	59	11¢	$6	0xcb6caa…
06-30 00:20:44	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-30 00:15 UTC	Up	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0x47f0ac…
06-30 00:18:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-30 00:15 UTC	Down	SELL	23	50¢	$12	0x5afad7…
06-30 00:15:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-30 00:15 UTC	Down	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x033af1…
06-29 23:20:05	bitcoin up or down june 29 2026 7pm et	Up	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x9c0e40…
06-29 22:06:31	bitcoin up or down june 29 2026 6pm et	Up	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x9455ba…
06-29 21:03:14	bitcoin up or down june 29 2026 5pm et	Down	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x07499d…
06-29 20:18:08	bitcoin up or down june 29 2026 4pm et	Up	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xd40fba…
06-29 20:02:52	bitcoin up or down june 29 2026 4pm et	Down	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x76eeda…
06-29 19:00:26	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-29 19:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xda32f3…
06-29 19:00:26	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-29 19:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x6d2476…
06-29 18:59:49	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-29 18:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x819d49…
06-29 18:59:47	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-29 18:45 UTC	Down	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0x8d3a82…
06-29 18:46:46	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-29 18:45 UTC	Up	BUY	4	40¢	$2	0x40eaac…
06-29 18:46:26	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-29 18:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x350728…
06-29 18:46:26	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-29 18:45 UTC	Up	BUY	0	40¢	$0	0x2159f1…
06-29 18:34:47	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-29 18:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x626070…
06-29 18:34:46	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-29 18:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x7dbee8…
06-29 18:34:46	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-29 18:30 UTC	Up	BUY	0	40¢	$0	0x546bd9…
06-29 18:31:55	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-29 18:30 UTC	Down	BUY	3	40¢	$1	0xc4245e…
06-29 18:31:55	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-29 18:30 UTC	Down	BUY	7	40¢	$3	0x2ac96d…
06-29 18:31:46	Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	SELL	83	10¢	$8	0x4a4517…
06-29 18:27:20	Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0x5f3e57…
06-29 18:15:29	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-29 18:15 UTC	Up	BUY	3	40¢	$1	0x6c5d2a…
06-29 18:15:26	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-29 18:15 UTC	Up	BUY	7	40¢	$3	0xdcbaa4…
06-29 18:05:31	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-29 18:00 UTC	Down	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xa30563…
06-29 18:00:11	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-29 18:00 UTC	Up	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x0a3070…
06-29 17:45:01	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-29 17:45 UTC	Up	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x7ff647…
06-29 17:33:13	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-29 17:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xc39cf6…
06-29 17:33:13	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-29 17:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x3d650b…
06-29 17:30:53	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-29 17:30 UTC	Down	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x63dbfb…