False-Modification — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$105

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

94.6%

Resolved

24,534

Trades

40,745

lifetime

Volume

$504.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-25 14:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 259 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 93% +$185

Other

1% 95% -$17

Politics

0% 33% -$64

Tech

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

45 active days in 12wk • peak 52 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
solana up or down march 28 2026 8am et	39	$772	386	400	-14	Down	-$1	03-28 12:56
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-27 20:45 UTC	45	$772	390	400	-10	Up	+$2	03-27 20:58
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-27 21:00 UTC	45	$759	470	304	+166	Up	+$6	03-27 21:12
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-27 22:00 UTC	37	$494	340	163	+177	Down	+$4	03-27 22:11
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-27 20:45 UTC	28	$398	250	153	+97	Up	+$2	03-27 20:55
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-28 08:30 UTC	27	$385	179	216	-36	Down	+$1	03-28 08:41
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-27 23:45 UTC	34	$374	165	218	-53	Up	+$1	03-27 23:59
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-27 20:45 UTC	21	$304	190	119	+71	Up	+$2	03-27 20:55
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-28 08:30 UTC	18	$302	150	160	-10	Down	+$2	03-28 08:40
solana up or down march 28 2026 2am et	28	$272	137	139	-2	Up	$0	03-28 06:50
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-28 12:30 UTC	10	$233	120	120	+0	Down	+$2	03-28 12:36
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-28 08:00 UTC	13	$233	120	120	+0	Down	+$3	03-28 08:14
xrp up or down march 28 2026 8am et	16	$220	108	120	-12	Down	+$3	03-28 12:58
solana up or down march 29 2026 7am et	13	$181	98	88	+10	Up	+$3	03-29 11:49
ethereum up or down march 18 2026 7am et	2	$179	180	0	+180	Down	+$1	03-18 11:44
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-16 18:00 UTC	2	$178	180	0	+180	Up	+$2	03-16 18:11
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-27 23:15 UTC	16	$175	110	70	+40	Up	+$2	03-27 23:27
ethereum up or down march 16 2026 8am et	2	$157	160	0	+160	Up	+$3	03-16 12:52
ethereum up or down march 29 2026 7am et	13	$151	108	48	+60	Up	+$4	03-29 11:41
bitcoin up or down march 29 2026 7am et	14	$142	98	48	+50	Up	+$4	03-29 11:42
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-07 10:00 UTC	2	$138	140	0	+140	Up	+$2	03-07 10:14
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-23 11:45 UTC	3	$136	140	0	+140	Down	+$4	03-23 11:56
ethereum up or down march 15 2026 9am et	3	$135	140	0	+140	Down	+$5	03-15 13:41
bitcoin up or down march 29 2026 5am et	2	$129	90	40	+50	Down	+$1	03-29 09:55
ethereum up or down march 12 3pm et	2	$127	130	0	+130	Up	+$3	03-12 19:36
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-22 21:15 UTC	5	$122	126	0	+126	Up	-$22	03-22 21:29
xrp up or down march 25 2026 6am et	2	$122	125	0	+125	Up	+$4	03-25 10:52
ethereum up or down march 30 2026 5pm et	7	$117	80	40	+40	Up	+$2	03-30 21:34
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-13 14:30 UTC	2	$116	120	0	+120	Down	+$4	03-13 14:41
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-28 00:00 UTC	8	$116	80	40	+40	Down	+$2	03-28 00:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 14:20:48	XRP Up or Down on October 25?	Up	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x614f5c…
10-25 13:02:32	Solana Up or Down on October 25?	Up	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0xef1723…
10-25 13:02:23	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 25?	Up	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x2ee60b…
10-25 13:02:21	XRP Up or Down on October 25?	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x4c671d…
10-25 13:02:11	Ethereum Up or Down on October 25?	Up	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x674605…
10-18 10:05:30	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 18?	Up	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0xb89c56…
10-17 07:42:50	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 07:30 UTC	Up	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x8ee809…
10-17 07:42:50	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 07:30 UTC	Up	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x6e4a4a…
10-17 07:42:38	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-17 07:30 UTC	Up	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xbce575…
10-17 07:42:18	Solana Up or Down - October 17, 3AM ET	Up	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x38916a…
10-17 07:42:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 3AM ET	Up	BUY	4	91¢	$4	0x909cd8…
09-28 11:57:23	solana up or down on september 28 2026	Down	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0x77a10c…
09-28 11:56:56	bitcoin up or down on september 28 2026	Down	BUY	10	95¢	$9	0x0b5466…
09-28 05:17:24	bitcoin up or down on september 28 2026	Down	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x01f731…
09-20 18:02:57	Will AfD win at least 38% of all valid second votes?	No	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x176cf5…
09-20 15:53:31	Will Linke win between 11% and 14% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	116	9¢	$10	0xa8e43c…
09-20 15:27:24	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 11AM ET	Up	BUY	13	93¢	$12	0xc12cef…
09-20 10:28:30	XRP Up or Down - September 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	13	95¢	$12	0xf429cf…
09-20 10:28:18	Solana Up or Down - September 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x84ffff…
09-20 10:28:13	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x14d9a5…
09-20 09:44:34	Will AfD win at least 38% of all valid second votes?	No	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xeed993…
09-20 09:24:36	solana up or down on september 20 2026	Down	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0xb3f9ad…
09-20 09:24:25	xrp up or down on september 20 2026	Down	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0xcf0744…
09-20 09:24:15	ethereum up or down on september 20 2026	Down	BUY	41	98¢	$40	0xf56d0f…
09-20 09:24:04	bitcoin up or down on september 20 2026	Down	BUY	41	98¢	$40	0xe5ca2a…
09-20 09:23:43	XRP Up or Down - September 20, 5AM ET	Up	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xd20e1d…
09-20 09:23:19	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-20 09:15 UTC	Up	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x9d3283…
09-20 09:23:19	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-20 09:15 UTC	Up	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x6efaf4…
09-20 09:23:09	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-20 09:15 UTC	Up	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0x63f406…
09-20 09:22:58	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-20 09:15 UTC	Up	BUY	13	93¢	$12	0xe3451d…
09-20 09:22:49	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-20 09:15 UTC	Up	BUY	13	95¢	$12	0xfc7839…
09-19 15:28:27	Solana Up or Down on September 19?	Up	BUY	16	94¢	$15	0xf93b8f…
09-19 11:54:35	Will Linke win between 11% and 14% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0xbd81b2…
09-19 11:51:59	Will Grüne win at least 7% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	64	8¢	$5	0x00cb6c…
09-19 11:47:35	XRP Up or Down on September 19?	Up	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0xfc5735…
09-19 11:47:21	Ethereum Up or Down on September 19?	Up	BUY	41	99¢	$40	0x5585fd…
09-19 11:47:08	Bitcoin Up or Down on September 19?	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xcb279e…
09-19 11:46:47	Solana Up or Down - September 19, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x43a41d…
09-19 11:46:45	Solana Up or Down - September 19, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x73cb02…
09-19 11:46:33	XRP Up or Down - September 19, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xb3a117…
09-19 11:46:33	XRP Up or Down - September 19, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x4c0adf…
09-17 11:28:46	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-17 11:15 UTC	Down	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0xa83fa0…
09-17 11:28:34	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-17 11:15 UTC	Down	BUY	13	95¢	$12	0x80e596…
09-15 10:59:43	Bitcoin Up or Down on September 15?	Down	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x98a486…
09-14 07:25:45	XRP Up or Down - September 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0xff4d04…
09-14 07:25:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0xa60abb…
09-13 10:47:03	Solana Up or Down - September 13, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	12	96¢	$12	0xda7b38…
09-13 10:46:55	XRP Up or Down - September 13, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	13	95¢	$12	0x4c36b9…
09-13 10:46:40	ethereum up or down september 13 2026 6am et	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x98fccc…
09-13 10:46:39	ethereum up or down september 13 2026 6am et	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x587ee2…
09-13 10:14:40	Solana Up or Down on September 13?	Down	BUY	31	96¢	$30	0xbd1158…
09-13 10:14:31	XRP Up or Down on September 13?	Down	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0x98c7ef…
09-13 10:14:21	ethereum up or down on september 13 2026	Down	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0xd0679c…
09-13 10:14:07	bitcoin up or down on september 13 2026	Down	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0xec6e3f…
09-13 10:13:39	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-13 10:00 UTC	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xcbda4f…
09-12 20:34:39	XRP Up or Down - September 12, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	13	93¢	$12	0x357ab7…
09-11 19:53:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x0a3ccd…
09-11 19:53:48	Solana Up or Down - September 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	13	93¢	$12	0x04a1f6…
09-11 18:51:55	Solana Up or Down - September 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	4	92¢	$4	0xb6852f…
09-11 18:51:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x541535…
09-11 14:11:33	XRP Up or Down - September 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xd072e8…
09-11 14:11:19	Solana Up or Down - September 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x3bcff0…
09-11 14:11:06	Ethereum Up or Down - September 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	13	95¢	$12	0xa38e13…
09-11 12:45:18	Solana Up or Down - September 11, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x48adb8…
09-11 12:45:03	Ethereum Up or Down - September 11, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xed15f2…
09-11 12:44:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 8AM ET	Down	SELL	4	7¢	$0	0x136367…
09-11 12:44:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	4	90¢	$4	0x2969f7…
09-11 12:32:00	XRP Up or Down on September 11?	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x8b2a62…
09-11 12:31:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	4	92¢	$4	0x5902e8…
09-07 20:44:49	Solana Up or Down - September 7, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x653ba8…
09-07 20:44:49	Solana Up or Down - September 7, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x1dd0ff…
09-07 20:44:36	XRP Up or Down - September 7, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	13	93¢	$12	0x1fa6bd…
09-07 20:44:25	Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xcf7a07…
09-07 20:44:24	Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xad6932…
09-07 20:44:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xcea497…
09-07 20:44:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xacbb40…
09-06 20:34:19	XRP Up or Down - September 6, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x1b7077…
09-06 20:34:18	XRP Up or Down - September 6, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x4c4961…
09-06 20:34:10	Ethereum Up or Down - September 6, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0xbcb357…
09-06 20:34:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0xac44d7…
09-06 19:52:03	XRP Up or Down - September 6, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xe23b7e…
09-06 19:52:03	XRP Up or Down - September 6, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x180956…
09-06 19:51:54	Ethereum Up or Down - September 6, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xdcaed8…
09-06 19:51:54	Ethereum Up or Down - September 6, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x6b6160…
09-06 19:51:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x891f21…
09-06 19:51:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x9cfc32…
09-06 07:47:03	Will Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	45	67¢	$30	0x3accde…
09-06 06:45:00	Will AfD win between 39% and 42% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	51	39¢	$20	0x5ccfae…
09-05 19:28:34	Will AfD win between 39% and 42% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0x6d5593…
09-05 19:27:39	Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	BUY	48	83¢	$40	0xaf2330…
09-05 19:26:31	Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: BSW Over/Under 5%?	Under	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x5fd8a2…
09-05 19:26:18	Will Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x6c27a1…
09-04 21:38:49	Ethereum Up or Down - September 4, 5PM ET	Up	BUY	4	91¢	$4	0x7ca292…
09-04 13:52:48	solana up or down on september 4 2026	Down	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x6bd08b…
09-04 13:52:40	XRP Up or Down on September 4?	Down	BUY	41	98¢	$40	0xcd8ac3…
09-04 13:52:31	ethereum up or down on september 4 2026	Down	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0xf168d1…
09-04 13:52:27	bitcoin up or down on september 4 2026	Down	BUY	41	97¢	$40	0x11fb99…
09-03 11:42:46	Solana Up or Down - September 3, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xf58a11…
09-03 11:42:46	Solana Up or Down - September 3, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x553cbf…
09-03 11:42:36	XRP Up or Down - September 3, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x64711c…