Livid-Television — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$6.21K

Unrealized P&L

+$16

Hit rate

82.5%

Resolved

27,185

Trades

107,385

lifetime

Volume

$831.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$140

30 positions

First seen

2026-02-14

last 10-27 00:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 199 days

Categories

Crypto

91% 61% -$5,143

Other

7% 64% -$386

Sports

1% 52% -$698

Tech

1% 30% -$14

Politics

0% 45% +$30

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

74 active days in 12wk • peak 3169 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	No	+100	$79	80¢	$80	+$1	10-23 10:11
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	No	+34	$26	85¢	$29	+$3	10-25 16:07
Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	No	+30	$18	38¢	$11	-$6	10-24 14:56
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027?	Yes	+20	$13	52¢	$10	-$3	10-15 08:12
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?	No	+5	$4	86¢	$5	+$0	10-26 16:34
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	No	+5	$3	66¢	$3	$0	10-08 00:34
Will Alabama Crimson Tide win the 2027 CFP National Championship?	No	+0	$0	95¢	$0	$0	10-05 02:38
Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026	No	+0	$0	98¢	$0	$0	10-05 02:38
Will Oregon Ducks win the 2027 CFP National Championship?	No	+0	$0	100¢	$0	$0	10-05 02:38
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH?	No	+0	-$3	99¢	$0	+$4	10-24 11:50
Viktor Orbán arrested by...?	No	+0	-$5	89¢	$0	+$5	10-24 21:11
Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027?	No	+0	$0	97¢	$0	$0	10-05 02:38
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81	No	+0	$0	97¢	$0	$0	10-05 02:38
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?	No	+0	$0	97¢	$0	$0	10-05 02:38
Jack Barton announced as next James Bond?	No	+0	$0	97¢	$0	$0	10-05 02:38
Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?	No	+0	-$1	96¢	$0	+$1	10-07 06:27
Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?	Yes	+0	$0	96¢	$0	$0	10-05 02:38
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?	No	+0	-$4	96¢	$0	+$4	10-23 18:01
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	$0	95¢	$0	$0	10-05 02:38
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	+0	-$4	94¢	$0	+$4	10-26 01:00
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026	No	+0	$0	94¢	$0	$0	10-26 05:37
Will GitLab be acquired before 2027?	No	+0	$0	94¢	$0	$0	10-05 02:38
Will Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	-$1	78¢	$0	+$1	10-14 19:30
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	+0	$0	93¢	$0	$0	10-05 02:38
Will none of these coins hit a $1B FDV?	Yes	+0	$0	92¢	$0	$0	10-05 02:38
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?	No	+0	$0	92¢	$0	$0	10-05 02:38
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?	No	+0	-$4	92¢	$0	+$4	10-23 03:01
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	$0	92¢	$0	$0	10-05 02:38
Weed rescheduled by December 31?	No	+0	$0	91¢	$0	$0	10-05 02:38
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?	No	+0	$0	91¢	$0	$0	10-05 02:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	33	$3.1K	1,991	1,991	+0	open	—	09-17 13:30
ethereum up or down february 17 11pm et	484	$1.6K	1,760	1,600	+160	Up	-$12	02-18 06:11
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-03 09:30 UTC	278	$1.3K	1,198	1,124	+74	Down	-$212	03-03 09:43
bitcoin up or down february 17 11pm et	372	$1.3K	1,345	1,245	+100	Up	-$17	02-18 06:11
Lakers vs. Thunder	79	$1.2K	641	658	-17	Thunder	+$25	05-08 04:42
ethereum up or down march 4 2pm et	217	$1.1K	1,184	705	+479	Up	-$20	03-04 20:51
bitcoin up or down march 6 8pm et	133	$1.0K	1,082	533	+549	Down	-$29	03-07 03:20
xrp up or down september 28 2026 7pm et	55	$950	542	522	+20	Up	+$84	09-28 23:58
solana up or down september 28 2026 7pm et	51	$866	498	478	+20	Up	+$84	09-28 23:59
ethereum up or down march 5 10pm et	258	$787	2,160	0	+2,160	Down	+$18	03-06 04:00
ethereum up or down september 28 2026 7pm et	52	$783	495	475	+20	Up	+$73	09-29 00:00
bitcoin up or down march 3 2am et	187	$779	869	405	+464	Up	-$2	03-03 08:32
xrp up or down september 28 2026 6pm et	70	$767	581	280	+301	Up	-$208	09-28 23:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	4	$700	707	0	+707	Up	+$7	05-10 19:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	4	$700	707	0	+707	Up	+$7	05-11 06:09
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	4	$700	707	0	+707	Down	+$7	05-11 00:09
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	4	$700	707	0	+707	Up	+$7	05-11 01:09
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	4	$700	707	0	+707	Down	+$7	05-11 06:39
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	4	$700	707	0	+707	Up	+$7	05-11 00:49
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	5	$700	707	0	+707	Down	+$7	05-10 22:24
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	4	$700	707	0	+707	Up	+$7	05-10 22:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	4	$700	707	0	+707	Up	+$7	05-10 22:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	4	$700	707	0	+707	Up	+$7	05-10 21:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	4	$700	707	0	+707	Up	+$7	05-11 03:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	4	$700	707	0	+707	Up	+$7	05-11 01:09
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	4	$700	707	0	+707	Up	+$7	05-10 23:34
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	4	$700	707	0	+707	Down	+$7	05-11 02:14
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	4	$700	707	0	+707	Up	+$7	05-10 20:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	4	$700	707	0	+707	Up	+$7	05-11 01:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	4	$700	707	0	+707	Up	+$7	05-11 02:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 01:30:38	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.90% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	35	77¢	$27	0xcd0fbd…
10-27 01:21:12	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1430 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	84¢	$4	0x525ca3…
10-27 01:21:05	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1430 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	24	84¢	$20	0x7bbb9a…
10-27 01:03:48	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.90% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	77¢	$11	0xaad95a…
10-27 00:43:15	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	Yes	SELL	45	84¢	$38	0xb833bf…
10-27 00:23:45	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	5	76¢	$3	0x44862b…
10-27 00:23:41	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x5465dc…
10-27 00:23:29	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x12807b…
10-27 00:04:08	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	25	76¢	$19	0xacf998…
10-27 00:02:21	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0xa4fc22…
10-26 23:52:41	Will Payton Pritchard win the 2026-27 NBA Sixth Man of the Year?	No	SELL	50	80¢	$40	0xaebb27…
10-26 22:54:14	Will Lamine Yamal finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	50	85¢	$42	0xf994ff…
10-26 22:53:00	Will Lamine Yamal finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	50	75¢	$38	0xc932c9…
10-26 22:48:21	Will Andy Beshear announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	50	82¢	$41	0xaf5cfb…
10-26 21:17:23	Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	50	77¢	$39	0x904b8e…
10-26 21:01:33	Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	42	74¢	$31	0x3fe69b…
10-26 19:30:45	Will Andy Beshear announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0xe4e254…
10-26 19:24:08	Another critical PHP security flaw in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0x23610a…
10-26 18:25:23	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher?	Yes	SELL	50	84¢	$42	0x3811dc…
10-26 17:44:36	Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $2.00T and $2.25T?	No	SELL	50	89¢	$44	0x2dd135…
10-26 17:30:00	Will Harry Kane finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	0	81¢	$0	0xe91ce1…
10-26 17:30:00	Will Harry Kane finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	30	81¢	$24	0xc6432b…
10-26 17:29:45	Will Harry Kane finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	20	81¢	$16	0xc40b81…
10-26 17:05:14	Will Kylian Mbappé finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0x4ae066…
10-26 17:05:14	Will Kylian Mbappé finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	20	88¢	$18	0x27b529…
10-26 17:04:26	Will Kylian Mbappé finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0xeadfc2…
10-26 16:34:03	Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xdffaf5…
10-26 16:11:32	Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $2.00T and $2.25T?	No	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0x263547…
10-26 16:05:44	Will Harry Kane finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	15	74¢	$11	0x0e7c76…
10-26 16:03:35	Will Harry Kane finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	35	74¢	$26	0x3b5d81…
10-26 15:53:56	Will Vitinha finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	50	80¢	$40	0x82006d…
10-26 15:42:56	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?	No	SELL	10	65¢	$6	0x71af53…
10-26 15:36:03	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 35% or higher?	No	SELL	45	79¢	$36	0x4ce284…
10-26 15:32:41	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 35% or higher?	No	SELL	5	79¢	$4	0xc73f42…
10-26 14:52:11	Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Golden Boy award?	Yes	SELL	50	89¢	$44	0x9ecfdb…
10-26 14:47:33	Will Payton Pritchard win the 2026-27 NBA Sixth Man of the Year?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x6f1a08…
10-26 14:32:06	Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Golden Boy award?	Yes	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0x0ace99…
10-26 14:12:18	Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	41	91¢	$37	0x1bd45a…
10-26 14:12:18	Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	9	91¢	$8	0x0ea915…
10-26 14:11:44	Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	50	82¢	$41	0xfaaea4…
10-26 13:38:29	Papertrade FDV above $75M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0xce9d32…
10-26 13:23:09	Will "Avengers: Doomsday" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	2	73¢	$2	0xb4c945…
10-26 13:09:02	Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?	No	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0xe39e51…
10-26 13:05:45	Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?	No	BUY	50	73¢	$36	0x72975a…
10-26 11:59:09	Will Payton Pritchard win the 2026-27 NBA Sixth Man of the Year?	No	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x607d0f…
10-26 09:21:12	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 35% or higher?	No	BUY	50	72¢	$36	0x41b3b1…
10-26 09:18:59	Will Payton Pritchard win the 2026-27 NBA Sixth Man of the Year?	No	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0xd3382e…
10-26 07:14:41	Will Payton Pritchard win the 2026-27 NBA Sixth Man of the Year?	No	BUY	8	73¢	$5	0xf6ce6c…
10-26 05:42:36	Will Ousmane Dembélé finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	50	81¢	$40	0x1996ce…
10-26 05:37:51	Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026	No	SELL	14	89¢	$13	0xf00c0a…
10-26 05:36:23	Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026	No	SELL	11	89¢	$10	0x37c2a1…
10-26 05:26:54	Will Luke Combs perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	No	SELL	50	89¢	$44	0x880423…
10-26 05:25:29	Will Luke Combs perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	No	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0xb644ad…
10-26 05:14:20	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0xccd347…
10-26 04:10:39	Will Vitinha finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	11	73¢	$8	0x08a1a9…
10-26 04:10:38	Will Vitinha finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	39	73¢	$28	0x170df6…
10-26 03:36:48	Will Payton Pritchard win the 2026-27 NBA Sixth Man of the Year?	No	BUY	30	73¢	$22	0x4ddc45…
10-26 02:23:03	Will Ousmane Dembélé finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0xd2334a…
10-26 01:00:14	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	82¢	$41	0xfa1307…
10-26 00:04:15	Will Joe Burrow win the 2026 NFL MVP?	No	SELL	6	88¢	$5	0x6d3f16…
10-26 00:04:15	Will Joe Burrow win the 2026 NFL MVP?	No	SELL	44	88¢	$39	0x1beafe…
10-26 00:00:11	Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	76¢	$11	0x226d0d…
10-25 23:56:32	Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	76¢	$27	0x620097…
10-25 20:13:53	Will Joe Burrow win the 2026 NFL MVP?	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x19fa5f…
10-25 19:28:08	Will Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2026 NFC South?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x47027b…
10-25 17:35:44	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher?	No	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x52935e…
10-25 17:30:21	Will Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2026 NFC South?	No	BUY	16	76¢	$12	0xc67588…
10-25 17:06:14	Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish 5th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	50	88¢	$44	0x8524e2…
10-25 16:07:08	Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	34	77¢	$26	0x478228…
10-25 13:33:06	Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0x8a30a0…
10-25 10:51:14	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0x0b51a4…
10-25 09:46:06	Will The Art of Loving (Olivia Dean) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	No	BUY	18	80¢	$15	0x2a3c3c…
10-25 09:46:05	Will The Art of Loving (Olivia Dean) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	No	BUY	15	80¢	$12	0x6e842e…
10-25 09:45:53	Will The Art of Loving (Olivia Dean) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	No	BUY	17	80¢	$14	0x5e2d6e…
10-25 07:28:11	Will Chris Godwin have 1,000+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xad8cf2…
10-25 07:02:14	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.00% before 2027?	No	SELL	10	79¢	$8	0xc57301…
10-25 04:52:29	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.00% before 2027?	No	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0xc43c58…
10-25 04:52:29	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.00% before 2027?	No	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0x27cc74…
10-25 01:45:33	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	SELL	40	85¢	$34	0xcfa36b…
10-25 01:45:06	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0x850ddb…
10-25 01:44:14	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0x1afc2f…
10-25 01:43:33	Blue Origin New Glenn launch in 2026?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xd4cf88…
10-24 23:43:20	Will Gen.G and T1 meet in the Worlds 2026 Grand Final?	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0xa5dd12…
10-24 22:01:17	Will "Digger" be nominated for Best Costume Design at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	42	74¢	$31	0xa35e87…
10-24 22:01:17	Will "Digger" be nominated for Best Costume Design at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	8	74¢	$6	0x4be091…
10-24 21:11:32	Viktor Orbán arrested by...?	No	SELL	50	81¢	$41	0x69a4b9…
10-24 20:16:18	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	BUY	50	77¢	$38	0x9532fe…
10-24 18:11:48	Will "Madden" be nominated for Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	50	79¢	$39	0x41dc8b…
10-24 17:51:11	Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31?	No	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0x21f817…
10-24 17:08:08	Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish 5th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0xf58842…
10-24 16:27:18	Will the IEA ask Germany to release oil stocks by December 31?	No	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0xc40e41…
10-24 16:27:18	Will the IEA ask Germany to release oil stocks by December 31?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x11fa2a…
10-24 14:56:08	Will Man I Need – Olivia Dean be the #2 song in the US for 2026?	No	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0x478316…
10-24 14:39:53	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1430 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x910e9f…
10-24 13:06:27	Will "Madden" be nominated for Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	0	72¢	$0	0xac70fa…
10-24 12:10:06	Will "Madden" be nominated for Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	50	72¢	$36	0xee1dac…
10-24 11:50:09	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH?	No	SELL	50	80¢	$40	0xd7061e…
10-24 10:45:54	Another critical PHP security flaw in 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	79¢	$0	0xf45270…
10-24 10:43:47	Another critical PHP security flaw in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	79¢	$39	0x60e482…
10-24 08:44:42	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH?	No	BUY	50	73¢	$36	0x34d0a2…