Friendly-Gravitas — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.73K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

90.9%

Resolved

129

Trades

258

lifetime

Volume

$49.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$192

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 10-28 16:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 64 days

Categories

Other

99% 80% +$1,719

Politics

1% 100% +$8

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	4	$4.9K	3,226	3,000	+226	Yes	+$587	09-16 16:27
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	4	$4.6K	2,800	2,268	+532	Yes	+$227	10-28 16:27
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	3	$3.2K	1,644	1,644	+0	Yes	+$58	03-17 16:09
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	4	$3.0K	1,525	1,525	+0	Yes	+$30	04-28 14:25
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	5	$2.4K	1,261	1,261	+0	Yes	+$38	06-04 15:15
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	2	$2.1K	1,035	1,035	+0	No	+$7	03-25 15:25
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	2	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	+$32	01-28 13:28
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	3	$2.0K	2,243	0	+2,243	Yes	+$289	07-16 02:49
Spread: Haiti (-1.5)	2	$1.3K	1,300	0	+1,300	Scotland	+$6	06-14 02:51
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 10?	4	$935	470	470	+0	No	+$3	07-10 18:04
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26?	6	$872	897	0	+897	No	+$25	06-26 03:00
highest temperature in hong kong on march 27 2026 27c	2	$858	533	533	+0	No	-$6	03-26 23:24
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 21?	4	$746	750	0	+750	No	+$4	06-21 03:51
fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 team to advance	4	$737	699	699	+0	Portugal	-$63	07-03 00:56
fifwc col gha 2026 07 03 spread home 1pt5	2	$648	476	476	+0	Ghana	+$48	07-04 03:20
fifwc hai sco 2026 06 13 spread home 2pt5	2	$517	518	0	+518	Scotland	+$1	06-14 02:39
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 5?	1	$500	501	0	+501	No	+$1	06-05 03:12
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 7?	1	$500	500	0	+500	No	+$0	06-07 04:10
highest temperature in hong kong on april 21 2026 29c	10	$473	355	200	+155	No	+$43	04-21 07:49
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	1	$456	457	0	+457	No	+$1	05-14 15:39
highest temperature in hong kong on march 28 2026 26c	11	$433	383	383	+0	No	-$91	03-28 04:18
fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 spread away 2pt5	1	$432	490	0	+490	Norway	+$58	07-07 15:56
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	2	$400	580	0	+580	Yes	+$180	06-08 04:56
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 22?	1	$400	400	0	+400	No	+$0	05-22 02:46
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Croatia?	2	$376	345	345	+0	Yes	-$224	07-03 00:55
fifwc can mar 2026 07 04 team to advance	3	$363	587	170	+417	Morocco	+$64	07-04 18:45
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 13?	1	$350	350	0	+350	No	+$0	05-13 04:38
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 3?	4	$326	347	0	+347	No	+$21	07-02 23:18
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 1?	3	$323	381	0	+381	No	+$57	05-01 03:42
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 23?	2	$316	316	0	+316	No	+$0	06-23 04:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 16:27:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	300	95¢	$286	0xb8f416…
10-28 16:26:50	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,000	95¢	$952	0xb6283e…
10-28 16:24:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	968	95¢	$921	0x8e7205…
10-21 05:45:03	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,800	88¢	$2,464	0xc7c518…
09-16 16:27:21	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	3,000	87¢	$2,610	0xdce4a0…
09-12 08:19:07	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,226	79¢	$1,758	0x12240d…
09-06 21:18:49	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	980	49¢	$480	0x870bab…
09-06 21:18:36	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x6bd7dc…
07-16 02:49:35	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,043	96¢	$1,000	0x41fd81…
07-13 00:03:31	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 13?	No	BUY	201	100¢	$200	0x952872…
07-11 22:50:19	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 goals erling haaland gte1	Yes	SELL	0	5¢	$0	0xd23b98…
07-11 22:49:31	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 goals erling haaland gte1	Yes	SELL	217	7¢	$15	0x3ff985…
07-11 01:52:23	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 goals erling haaland gte1	Yes	BUY	217	46¢	$100	0xf207d8…
07-10 18:10:35	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 spread home 2pt5	Belgium	BUY	355	84¢	$300	0xa881ee…
07-10 18:04:19	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 10?	No	SELL	470	100¢	$469	0x533e09…
07-10 06:56:08	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 11?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xc4cbfc…
07-10 06:14:02	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 10?	No	SELL	195	38¢	$74	0x431499…
07-10 06:13:44	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 10?	No	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0x9daa34…
07-10 06:08:13	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 10?	No	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0xe4ea15…
07-10 06:05:32	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 10?	No	SELL	8	35¢	$3	0x9d9b0b…
07-10 06:04:37	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 10?	No	SELL	13	35¢	$5	0x2f4395…
07-10 06:04:29	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 10?	No	SELL	10	31¢	$3	0x72b141…
07-10 06:01:17	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 10?	No	SELL	18	25¢	$4	0x06b087…
07-10 06:00:46	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 10?	No	SELL	7	24¢	$2	0xc59d76…
07-10 03:37:55	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 10?	No	BUY	60	62¢	$37	0xdf53d3…
07-10 03:36:28	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 10?	No	BUY	48	62¢	$30	0x4dce1a…
07-10 03:36:14	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 10?	No	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x5ef237…
07-10 03:36:02	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 10?	No	BUY	29	62¢	$18	0xd84fc6…
07-10 00:41:19	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 10?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xd2d080…
07-09 23:16:28	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 10?	No	BUY	66	99¢	$66	0x518e86…
07-09 23:15:58	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 10?	No	BUY	302	99¢	$300	0x93f115…
07-09 03:47:20	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 10?	No	BUY	123	81¢	$100	0xaba1e4…
07-09 00:12:19	Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Morocco?	No	BUY	337	89¢	$300	0x786456…
07-09 00:07:53	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 goals kylian mbappe gte1	Yes	BUY	148	54¢	$80	0x641df7…
07-07 15:56:49	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 spread away 2pt5	Norway	BUY	490	88¢	$432	0x15c7bc…
07-05 02:45:02	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 spread home 1pt5	Norway	BUY	423	71¢	$300	0x39f359…
07-04 18:45:55	fifwc can mar 2026 07 04 team to advance	Canada	SELL	170	3¢	$5	0x8a58de…
07-04 17:13:59	fifwc can mar 2026 07 04 team to advance	Canada	BUY	170	34¢	$58	0x09ac4f…
07-04 16:47:43	France to score first vs. Paraguay?	Yes	BUY	119	84¢	$100	0x41ece4…
07-04 16:47:01	fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 goals kylian mbappe gte1	Yes	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0x9c5881…
07-04 16:45:01	fifwc can mar 2026 07 04 team to advance	Morocco	BUY	417	72¢	$300	0xe5c42c…
07-04 03:20:16	fifwc col gha 2026 07 03 spread home 1pt5	Ghana	SELL	476	73¢	$348	0x09ba79…
07-04 01:37:23	fifwc col gha 2026 07 03 spread home 1pt5	Ghana	BUY	476	63¢	$300	0x3c523a…
07-03 18:35:34	fifwc aus egy 2026 07 03 first half total 1pt5	Under	BUY	137	73¢	$100	0xb6d3c5…
07-03 00:56:16	fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 team to advance	Croatia	SELL	270	6¢	$16	0x18b299…
07-03 00:55:44	Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Croatia?	No	SELL	345	22¢	$76	0xf6772e…
07-03 00:26:43	fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 team to advance	Croatia	BUY	270	37¢	$100	0x8a5c84…
07-03 00:19:59	Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Croatia?	No	BUY	345	87¢	$300	0x270bb9…
07-03 00:04:02	fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 goals cristiano ronaldo gte1	No	BUY	29	69¢	$20	0x5c3892…
07-02 23:44:35	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0xb8d021…
07-02 23:43:10	fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 first half total 0pt5	Under	BUY	25	81¢	$20	0x2dc490…
07-02 23:36:41	fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 team to advance	Portugal	SELL	429	75¢	$322	0x1ac493…
07-02 23:18:31	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 3?	No	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x7b91d1…
07-02 23:18:10	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 3?	No	BUY	211	95¢	$200	0x4f61ad…
07-02 23:16:25	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 3?	No	BUY	16	94¢	$15	0x18013a…
07-02 23:16:02	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 3?	No	BUY	12	93¢	$11	0x95e12e…
07-02 06:32:53	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 2?	No	SELL	68	79¢	$54	0xbff36c…
07-02 06:01:28	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	No	BUY	357	84¢	$300	0x09c292…
07-02 05:58:53	fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 team to advance	Portugal	BUY	429	70¢	$300	0x8947c7…
07-02 04:52:58	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 2?	No	BUY	68	73¢	$50	0xb8f089…
07-01 23:15:26	fifwc usa bih 2026 07 01 spread home 2pt5	Bosnia and Herzegovina	BUY	400	75¢	$300	0x3542f2…
07-01 21:34:17	Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Senegal?	No	BUY	213	94¢	$200	0xca6ffe…
07-01 20:30:40	fifwc bel sen 2026 07 01 team to advance	Senegal	BUY	328	61¢	$200	0x561f73…
07-01 02:45:04	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 1?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x3e55c2…
07-01 01:54:40	Mexico to score first vs. Ecuador?	Yes	BUY	288	52¢	$150	0xa5a404…
06-30 19:07:04	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 spread home 3pt5	Sweden	BUY	238	84¢	$200	0xc65b24…
06-30 18:41:58	Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Norway?	No	BUY	207	96¢	$200	0xe88ef3…
06-30 04:37:58	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 30?	No	BUY	130	70¢	$91	0x2ab803…
06-29 23:13:07	Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Morocco?	No	BUY	235	85¢	$200	0x6d4e3e…
06-29 15:50:02	Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	137	73¢	$100	0xaf10e0…
06-29 11:14:38	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 spread home 1pt5	Japan	BUY	71	70¢	$50	0x32e660…
06-28 07:53:23	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 28?	No	BUY	310	100¢	$310	0x53f5c3…
06-26 03:00:34	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x23fa73…
06-26 02:59:56	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26?	No	BUY	501	100¢	$500	0x3cc636…
06-25 23:18:11	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 26?	No	BUY	22	86¢	$19	0x54280b…
06-25 23:15:44	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26?	No	BUY	87	88¢	$77	0x5fbcda…
06-25 23:15:22	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26?	No	BUY	36	88¢	$32	0xdc11a4…
06-25 23:14:58	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26?	No	BUY	40	88¢	$35	0x371925…
06-25 23:14:46	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26?	No	BUY	33	85¢	$28	0x3e025f…
06-25 02:44:26	Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic?	No	BUY	204	98¢	$200	0xf1d27f…
06-25 00:11:47	Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 3 Korea Republic?	No	BUY	213	94¢	$200	0x56eec1…
06-24 23:15:29	Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil?	No	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0xb223cb…
06-24 13:24:14	Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada?	No	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0xff5b12…
06-23 23:27:58	Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia?	No	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0x16db9d…
06-23 16:32:14	fifwc eng gha 2026 06 23 spread home 3pt5	Ghana	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0x75be94…
06-23 16:31:26	Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	BUY	156	64¢	$100	0xbfd729…
06-23 04:40:44	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 23?	No	BUY	307	98¢	$300	0x776364…
06-23 04:39:50	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 23?	No	BUY	300	100¢	$300	0x6ecfe8…
06-23 03:46:40	fifwc jor alg 2026 06 22 spread away 1pt5	Jordan	BUY	341	91¢	$310	0xd1169f…
06-23 03:01:59	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 23?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x2e08a7…
06-23 00:29:11	Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 Senegal?	No	BUY	114	88¢	$100	0xa6d9b4…
06-22 20:40:05	Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq?	No	BUY	230	87¢	$200	0x4aa6ae…
06-22 08:25:31	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 22?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x42b5ec…
06-22 04:09:55	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	No	BUY	117	86¢	$100	0x9aa9b3…
06-22 04:08:41	fifwc arg aut 2026 06 22 spread home 2pt5	Austria	BUY	247	81¢	$200	0xce9179…
06-22 02:03:29	Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt?	No	BUY	225	89¢	$200	0xcfe12c…
06-21 03:51:04	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 21?	No	BUY	320	100¢	$320	0xd62ee7…
06-21 03:05:41	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 21?	No	BUY	200	99¢	$199	0x5d89fb…
06-21 02:37:44	Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 0 Japan?	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x8dc1d0…
06-21 02:37:05	Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 0 Japan?	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x232e2a…