Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$126

Unrealized P&L

+$10

Hit rate

58.6%

Resolved

584

Trades

951

lifetime

Volume

$2.44K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$104

2 positions

First seen

2026-07-30

last 11-01 00:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 82 days

Categories

Other

96% 28% -$120

Politics

4% 0% -$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

69 active days in 12wk • peak 70 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
us iran hormuz agreement by november 2	No		+100	$87	96¢	$96	+$10	10-15 03:21
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes		+10	$7	72¢	$7	+$1	10-27 09:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?	1	$94	100	0	+100	open	—	10-28 08:31
us iran hormuz agreement by november 2	1	$87	100	0	+100	open	—	10-15 03:21
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 27?	5	$58	30	30	+0	No	+$2	08-27 09:34
Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?	4	$52	30	30	+0	Yes	+$8	08-27 02:01
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 30?	13	$50	41	41	+0	No	$0	07-30 17:40
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 28?	4	$48	29	29	+0	Yes	+$3	08-28 06:41
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on August 20?	7	$47	36	36	+0	Yes	-$1	08-20 09:01
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on August 25?	6	$33	20	20	+0	No	+$7	08-25 08:19
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C or below on September 9?	1	$27	30	0	+30	Yes	+$3	09-09 02:39
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 19?	3	$26	16	16	+0	Yes	+$6	08-19 11:52
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 15?	6	$26	38	0	+38	Yes	+$12	08-15 16:03
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?	2	$21	27	0	+27	Yes	+$6	10-06 12:09
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 25?	3	$21	15	15	+0	Yes	+$9	08-25 08:09
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 19?	2	$18	10	10	+0	Yes	+$2	08-19 11:53
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 28?	3	$18	15	15	+0	Yes	+$9	08-28 05:55
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on August 18?	7	$18	35	0	+35	No	-$18	08-18 04:59
Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	1	$17	24	0	+24	open	—	10-28 08:40
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on August 21?	4	$17	15	15	+0	Yes	+$6	08-22 01:10
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 25?	2	$17	10	10	+0	Yes	+$3	08-25 10:19
Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	2	$16	20	20	+0	No	-$7	10-16 03:42
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 28?	3	$16	13	13	+0	Yes	+$10	08-28 11:22
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 18?	4	$16	15	10	+5	No	+$2	08-18 06:20
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on September 7?	2	$16	20	20	+0	No	+$2	09-07 10:50
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 24?	3	$15	10	10	+0	Yes	+$4	08-24 10:52
Will there be between 20 and 24 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	1	$15	17	0	+17	open	—	10-28 08:39
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on August 18?	3	$15	10	10	+0	Yes	+$4	08-18 11:07
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on August 16?	3	$15	20	20	+0	No	+$5	08-16 02:46
Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?	1	$15	16	0	+16	Yes	+$1	10-06 12:09
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on August 23?	3	$15	10	10	+0	Yes	+$5	08-23 13:38
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 23?	3	$15	10	10	+0	Yes	+$5	08-23 13:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 00:08:10	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	6	45¢	$3	0xe75adc…
10-31 00:08:10	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	6	43¢	$3	0xd0d80a…
10-30 00:08:10	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	6	45¢	$3	0xb649ef…
10-29 00:08:11	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0xca58c4…
10-28 08:40:14	Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	Yes	BUY	24	74¢	$17	0xd54de9…
10-28 08:39:11	Will there be between 20 and 24 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	No	BUY	17	89¢	$15	0x158db9…
10-28 08:31:56	Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?	Yes	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0xeab939…
10-28 00:08:11	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0x11148e…
10-27 09:16:33	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0xb82f4b…
10-27 00:08:11	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x91d3d4…
10-26 00:08:11	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	7	39¢	$3	0xfdbb53…
10-25 00:08:11	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	7	39¢	$3	0xa7caa4…
10-23 00:08:12	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on October 23?	Yes	BUY	6	43¢	$3	0x397166…
10-20 10:52:42	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	Yes	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x069dd4…
10-20 00:08:09	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on October 20?	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x5bf618…
10-18 22:22:08	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x784f37…
10-18 00:08:09	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on October 18?	Yes	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0xbe6fea…
10-17 00:08:11	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on October 17?	Yes	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0x90e2e7…
10-16 10:52:57	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on October 16?	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x71d9a6…
10-16 03:42:06	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	Yes	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0x14439e…
10-16 00:08:10	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on October 16?	Yes	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0xba009b…
10-15 03:21:02	us iran hormuz agreement by november 2	No	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0xb8d05c…
10-15 00:08:11	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	7	38¢	$3	0xf23608…
10-14 13:32:57	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	54¢	$5	0x9fe2be…
10-14 08:53:01	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	Yes	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0xc25d2c…
10-14 00:08:10	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0xf97c1e…
10-12 00:08:11	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on October 12?	Yes	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xe4a2da…
10-11 09:40:25	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x15f088…
10-11 09:40:16	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0x390520…
10-11 08:53:12	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on October 11?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xa27559…
10-11 00:08:10	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on October 11?	Yes	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x6ac927…
10-09 14:20:13	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on October 9?	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xcbdf27…
10-09 00:08:11	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on October 9?	Yes	BUY	6	42¢	$3	0x50c848…
10-08 00:08:11	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0xb1b874…
10-07 00:08:10	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on October 7?	Yes	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0xe00e74…
10-06 12:09:46	Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?	Yes	BUY	16	94¢	$15	0xd8b0c5…
10-06 12:09:43	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?	Yes	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0xb4609a…
10-06 00:08:11	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on October 6?	Yes	BUY	6	44¢	$3	0x848167…
10-05 00:08:10	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on October 5?	Yes	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x3ce69f…
10-03 00:08:12	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on October 3?	Yes	BUY	7	38¢	$3	0x7d69bf…
10-02 12:09:41	Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?	Yes	SELL	41	11¢	$4	0x679009…
10-02 11:59:17	Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?	Yes	BUY	35	14¢	$5	0x0a6a32…
10-02 09:15:23	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on October 2?	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x178449…
10-02 00:08:09	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on October 2?	Yes	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0x412914…
09-30 03:17:53	Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x1f3c90…
09-30 00:08:09	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xcd4170…
09-29 00:08:11	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on September 29?	Yes	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0xf36432…
09-28 08:45:45	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x989a49…
09-28 00:08:11	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on September 28?	Yes	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x4b3bbb…
09-26 00:08:09	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on September 26?	Yes	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0xaf69ed…
09-25 00:08:11	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on September 25?	Yes	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0x58d2ad…
09-24 06:06:48	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on September 24?	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x0e1b99…
09-24 05:43:33	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on September 24?	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x150f6f…
09-24 05:43:32	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on September 24?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xa9123d…
09-24 00:08:10	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on September 24?	Yes	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x6ae2df…
09-23 03:26:46	Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	3¢	$0	0xe2231d…
09-23 03:26:32	Will at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0x7342d3…
09-23 03:25:58	Will at least 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	5¢	$1	0x71e183…
09-23 03:25:28	Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x8152c9…
09-23 00:08:10	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xde4de4…
09-22 00:08:10	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on September 22?	Yes	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x168552…
09-21 09:16:35	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on September 21?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xb46df1…
09-21 00:08:10	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on September 21?	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x729192…
09-20 00:08:09	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on September 20?	Yes	BUY	6	45¢	$3	0xb1132d…
09-19 00:08:10	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on September 19?	Yes	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0x9cec7a…
09-18 09:14:27	Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on September 18?	Yes	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x000ee3…
09-18 00:08:12	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on September 18?	Yes	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x5bb1b7…
09-17 00:08:12	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on September 17?	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x8ced51…
09-16 00:08:09	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on September 16?	Yes	BUY	6	43¢	$3	0x037b69…
09-15 00:08:12	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on September 15?	Yes	BUY	6	39¢	$2	0x3da3a4…
09-14 00:08:10	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on September 14?	Yes	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x1dd283…
09-13 00:08:15	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on September 13?	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xc85d32…
09-11 00:08:13	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on September 11?	Yes	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0x2716ef…
09-10 06:31:37	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on September 10?	No	SELL	6	13¢	$1	0x991d32…
09-10 06:31:28	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on September 10?	No	SELL	4	13¢	$1	0x6f9cde…
09-10 03:07:12	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on September 10?	No	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0x953bc2…
09-10 00:08:10	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on September 10?	Yes	BUY	6	44¢	$3	0x0464b4…
09-09 13:56:45	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on September 9?	No	SELL	10	63¢	$6	0x8a1c6f…
09-09 08:24:03	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on September 9?	No	BUY	10	33¢	$3	0x367bd8…
09-09 02:39:03	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C or below on September 9?	Yes	BUY	30	90¢	$27	0xd1de2b…
09-09 00:08:10	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on September 9?	Yes	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x78801e…
09-08 11:19:43	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on September 8?	Yes	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x98595b…
09-08 00:08:09	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on September 8?	Yes	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0x913c52…
09-07 10:50:51	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on September 7?	Yes	SELL	18	27¢	$5	0x224a57…
09-07 10:50:36	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on September 7?	Yes	SELL	20	43¢	$9	0xcac1ba…
09-07 10:33:16	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on September 7?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x1eea38…
09-07 07:17:07	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on September 7?	Yes	BUY	14	15¢	$2	0x1091d8…
09-07 07:16:57	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on September 7?	Yes	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0x8622fe…
09-07 07:16:48	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on September 7?	Yes	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0x551c5b…
09-07 05:27:09	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on September 7?	Yes	BUY	10	33¢	$3	0x5fa673…
09-07 00:08:10	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on September 7?	Yes	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0xc7cc8e…
09-04 00:00:12	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on September 4?	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0xee9e40…
09-02 00:00:12	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on September 2?	Yes	BUY	7	38¢	$3	0x3cb3bf…
08-31 00:00:10	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on August 31?	Yes	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xd5a03f…
08-30 00:00:12	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 30?	Yes	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xf74411…
08-29 12:53:13	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 30?	Yes	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x4c6ed1…
08-29 12:53:00	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 30?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x3881a8…
08-29 12:52:49	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on August 30?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x20d28d…
08-29 12:45:27	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 29?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x62371d…
08-29 06:07:24	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 29?	Yes	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x396da9…